by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (5-24-13)
[Part one - No Zzz's Please]
DAN:
I loved watching Stephen Curry make the leap. It was amazing and its very, very sad to have him out of the playoffs. I'm not sure anyone on the Spurs can make their series with Memphis fun to watch, but Steph Curry would have. Oh well. On the flip side, is there anything worse than watching a player unleap. Kevin Durant took a step back this postseason. I full on believe that you often have to take a step back in order to take two or three forward, and this will be Durant's future. However, I wanted him so badly to take over in the Memphis series in the final five minutes of the game and win it for OKC. They were within five points every single game and he could not overcome Memphis' stellar defense. I wanted to watch him make another leap, but instead he stood still and when compared to Curry, seemed to have stepped back.
Are you worried at all about Miami? I keep hearing how Indiana matches up the best with them of any team in the league. That they can really push Miami and make things interesting. I'm doubtful, but more importantly, do not want to imagine a world without Lebron in the NBA Finals.
TODD:
Unleaping is a hilarious concept. Kudos. I'm not sure it is fair to Durant though to categorize what happened as him unleaping. First of all, his numbers in the Memphis series were crazy good: 28.8 points per game, 10.4 rebounds, 6.6 assists. His percentages were below what we've come to expect from him but that goes with the territory of being your team's entire offense and the focus of double, triple and quintuple teams. And I don't buy the clutch argument either; no one is 100% clutch all the time. KD has already proven he can take and make big shots in big games. The only thing this series did to Durant's legacy is it proved he is not LeBron James. Congratulations but we all already knew this. This dispelled that he was close to the King's level but we already knew they were not equals.
The interesting hypothetical to test would have been how far LeBron could have carried OKC if the two switched teams. I think the Thunder then make the NBA Finals, but that is not because Durant unlept. He just doesn't have that all-around ceiling James does. Forget the other facets of the game; just defensively, LeBron is light years better.
Which brings us to Miami. Am I worried about the Heat? Well, I don't think they'll sweep Indiana. I'm worried they may lose twice. How's that? Depending on Dwyane Wade's health, Miami will either win in five or in six. I think there lies your only worry. Then the story becomes about how banged up Miami is. They slogged through the Chicago series, taking a beating. Indiana will be no different...and frankly could be worse. Where does that leave them heading into the Finals? A match-up with Memphis there could be rough. Is there a tougher trio of teams to face back to back to back than Chicago, Indiana and Memphis? It'd be unbelievable. And I still think Miami would win, but they'd feel it in June. We may be in store for a number of off-season surgeries by Heat players.
On the other hand, if San Antonio wiggles through to the Finals, which is entirely possible (the Western Conference Finals seems like a toss-up to me), I think that makes Miami's time of things a bit smoother. At that point, they may make it through the entire playoffs losing fewer than four times.
DAN:
I know Kevin Durant is not Lebron James, but at the very least he is aspiring to reach that level of greatness. Beyond that, what I saw from Durant was a dip in attitude. He had swagger before, fed off of Russell Westbrook's insanity and was a practical guarantee to nail a jump shot or free throw. In the Memphis series he looked like he'd been slapped in the face by a dude. A skinny white guy slapped him and he was dumbstruck, still playing great but without his edge and slightly rattled. This does not have to be a trend, and I'm guessing it won't be, but as of right now Kevin Durant looks way more like a Tracy McGrady than a Dwyane Wade. Time is on his side and we're all pulling for you Kevin. Keep climbing up that hill.
Now Lebron James is standing on top of the hill and I'm not worried one bit about him and the Miami Heat. They can win the title with or without Dwyane Wade and you know he's giving them everything he's got no matter if its 50% or 80%. They may lose one or two games to the Pacers, but its irrelevant considering the amount of days off between playoff rounds. What matters most is that the Western Conference Finals is going seven games. Its unwatchable basketball between two grueling opponents who punch and kick one another mercilessly. Advantage Miami. No matter if the Spurs or Grizzlies prevail, although its leaning towards San Antonio right now, both teams will be physically and mentally drained. Neither plays at a speed anywhere near what Lebron and the Heat bring night in and night out. They will get run off the floor.
My unscientific breakdown of the two potential NBA Finals match ups as I see it:
Heat vs. Grizzlies:
- Great Defense vs. Great Defense = Even
- Great Offense vs. Consistent Offense = Advantage Miami
- Fast vs. Slow = Advantage Miami
- Jump shooting team that pounds it to the hole vs. Post up and rebound = Advantage Miami
(Miami in five)
Heat vs. Spurs:
- Great Defense vs. Great Defense = Even
- Great Offense vs. Consistent Offense = Advantage Miami
- Fast vs. Average Pace = Advantage Miami
- Jump shooting team that pounds it to the hole vs. All time great finesse team that's old = Even
(Miami in six)
TODD:
That was a cheap shot at McGrady right there. He should be cherished and don't you forget it! He is on the Spurs right now. Are people aware of this fact or has it slipped under the radar? Tracy McGrady has now, officially, made it out of the first round of the NBA Playoffs. He also might make the NBA Finals.
A two-time NBA scoring champion with a career average of more than 19 points per game and who scores over 23 points per game for his playoff career is not a shabby "bad news" situation for Durant. In fact, McGrady's playoff averages are aligned pretty well with how Durant performed in that Memphis series: unstoppable but inefficient. Durant should be so lucky to be Tracy McGrady on his worst day. Tough destiny for T-Mac though, being KD's worst case scenario.
Even though you nailed your Kevin Durant analysis, your finals outlook is wrong. Miami would rather play San Antonio. No matter how the beginning of the Western Conference Finals has played out, Memphis' inside presence is much more fearsome than San Antonio's. No one on Miami can handle Gasol and Zach Randolph for quarters at a time. This could get the Heat in foul trouble or force them to play some actual centers and power forwards in this series, getting them out of their comfort zone. Miami versus Memphis would definitely go six, or even seven games. The Spurs, on the other hand, would get swallowed up. They're prideful so they wouldn't get swept, but Miami would beat them in five.
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