World Baseball Classic Breakdown - Part Two
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (2-22-13)
DAN:
Yeah, that's right, you must respect team USA. It's a shame how many stars won't be playing, but there are honestly too many to have on the team in the first place. And let's not forget who this tournament is really for, other countries!Like you said, the WBC isn't watched much. But that's a severely American perspective. I have a feeling that it will be well received and a big draw TV wise for all the Latin American countries and for Japan. Those are the two hot beds for baseball internationally and the two spots where MLB wants to grow its game. And what do you know, most all the stars from those locations are playing. That makes this WBC business a success in my book.
I doubt the WBC will ever eclipse the Olympics, mainly because its only one sport and it's in March when America watches college basketball. But I still find the whole thing totally fun! National pride is a powerful thing and team USA is going to bring it. They are by far the favorites, but let's take this one step further. Here are the four Pools of play. Tell me who wins, round by round:
Pool A
Japan
China
Cuba
Brazil
Pool B
Korea
Netherlands
Australia
Chinese Taipei
Pool C
Venezuela
Puerto Rico
Dominican Republic
Spain
Pool D
USA
Mexico
Italy
Canada
TODD:
Each pool will have a winner and a runner-up that advances. Obviously being the pool winner offers you an easier ride to the subsequent rounds. Now I'm no big city foreign correspondent (audible gasps!) but I can take a crack at trying to predict games between countries where I have never heard of any of the players involved. I mean, I ain't no wuss.Pool A seems pretty straight forward. Japan and Cuba will both advance. They have the talent, experience and pedigree to go far in a tournament like this. Give the Winner title to Japan and Cuba gets runner-up.
Who decided on how to break up these pools? Pool B seems like the JV league. Give Korea the win and the Netherlands gets runner-up but neither is one of the top eight teams in this competition.
Pool C is not for the faint of heart. Three perennial powerhouses from the Latin American countries reside in this pool (and also Spain is playing). However, one of them is a mark or two below the others. Puerto Rico does not have the arms on their pitching staff or in the bullpen to compete with either Venezuela or the Dominican Republic. DR will win this pool with Venezuela advancing as the runner-up.
No one in Pool D is on the USA's level. Someone has to advance as runner-up though. I'll give the nod to Mexico this spring because of their deep pitching staff. The USA team will win this pool rather easily though, like 3-0 easily.
Our second round is double elimination, with the teams from Pool A and B facing off (The A runner-up versus B winner and vice versa for the first set of games), and Pool C and D facing off.
Pool 1 (Japan, Cuba, Korea and the Netherlands) will be playing their games in Tokyo, Japan. This seems like a huge advantage to the Japanese squad. They already had the leg up on both Korea and the Netherlands coming into round two, but home field advantage puts them over the top of Cuba as well. Japan will advance as the winner of Pool 1 with Cuba advancing as the runner-up.
Pool 2, being played in Miami, Florida, is absolutely stacked (Dominican Republic, Venezuela, USA, Mexico). Three of the best four teams in this competition will play in this pool. Mexico's pitching is strong, but the rest of their roster puts them a grade below the other triumvirate of Pool 2. The best all-around roster still belongs to USA. However, playing at home may be a detriment to them. Added pressure as well as a pitching staff missing arguably ALL their best pitchers means an early exit (by our standards) for team America. If David Price and Justin Verlander and CC Sabathia and some other big arms were on this team, why even hold the competition? America would steam through everyone. But here, USA will not be able to hang with their Latin counterparts.
In the battle for Pool 2 supremacy, I see the Dominican Republic winning but Venezuela still advancing as the pool runner-up. They may not have the history of international success that the Dominican Republic and America have, but Venezuela will have just enough this year to push through.
Finally, the Championship round! We see the Pool 2 runner-up face the Pool 1 winner and vice versa in game two, with these games being played in San Francisco's AT&T Park. Game one of the Championship round will have Venezuela taking on Japan. This is a tough draw for the Japanese squad as the Venezuelans have one of the best rosters out of any country in the WBC this year and perhaps the single best lineup this competition has ever seen. Japan will manage to scrape by them though with their savvy team of veterans.
In the second game, the Dominican Republic will take down the over-matched Cuban squad and advance to play Japan for the title.
For the WBC title, a lot may depend on how everyone's pitching shook out. (This is also true for the semi-final rounds as it is just one game to determine who advances.) If Wandy Rodriguez pitched against Cuba, he would not be available for the Dominicans in the final. This is where it helps to have a pretty deep bullpen of Major League players. Edinson Volquez, DR's probable number two, would get the call, thus relying heavily on those arms in relief. Behind those live arms and an all-around great lineup, the Dominican Republic wins the 2013 championship and celebrates with... no parades or trips to Disney World or anything of the sort because, let's be honest, who really cares? It's just the World Baseball Classic. When's Opening Day??
DAN:
Its hard to argue with your predictions, but who am I kidding, I have to. Team USA is DEFINITELY making the WBC finals. Two of the three rounds are on home turf, assuming they advance. Let's assume your first round predictions are accurate, we'll just conveniently replace the Venezuelan squad with the US one, since without Felix Hernandez they are a one ship pony. That gives us USA versus Japan and the Dominican Republic versus Cuba.As there is NO way team USA loses before the finals here, they are beating the Japanese handily. I see the DR squeaking past a spunky Cuban squad to face the US in the finals.
Now we've found some excitement, a little bit of intrigue. Two stacked teams face off for world supremacy. Or at least two really solid teams will play in San Francisco for a trophy. They get a trophy right? Someone better get some kind of tall metal thing resembling validation for their efforts damn it! Will it be the Dominican Republic as you say? Hell no. USA! USA!
