NFL Kickoff: The fantasy kicker & Barry Sanders - Part three

NFL Kickoff: The fantasy kicker & Barry Sanders - Part three
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (8-12-13)

[Part one - Off season questions Real & Hilarious]
[Part two - Tebow vs. Hernandez]



TODD:
The kicker in fantasy football is irrelevant and should be removed. The stats back this up. Made field goal percentage is so balanced and so steady, everyone always comes back to the mean. You can go through and look up who the projected top fantasy kicker was each season and how rarely that same man finishes the year as the best. So what's the point of using them in fantasy football? It is simply a random chance as to whether you will select the guy who has the good year, the average year or the bad year. There is no skill in this and literally no research you can do to improve your chances of selecting the former.

I am actually in a league that previously did not employ kickers as a position and, just this season, decided to re-institute them, for reasons unbeknownst to me. I guess I can take solace in the fact that someone will overdraft one of these men, and it will work to my benefit. But other than that, what's even the point?


DAN:
I'm with you on the kicker being a relatively flat position in fantasy football. The man himself is irrelevant. Only his team matters. How do you go about selecting a kicker? Pick a team that meets one of two criteria: 1) Scores a ton of points 2) Has a terrible red zone offense and can't get in the end zone. Done and done!

I don't think you remove it from the fantasy conversation however. Its a wildcard position that is not much different than team defense. You are looking for consistency with the potential for a big week. A five field goal day can win or lose you a week in fantasy football and that's what makes it both wildly fun and unbelievably frustrating to play. Fantasy Football is 50% smarts 40% luck and 10% paying attention to injury. Everyone knows this and removing the kicker does not decrease the luck factor nor improve the need for smarts. It just excludes a rather important facet of the actual game of football. It would be like taking saves out of fantasy baseball. Although a poor analogy, its basically removing a fundamental and critical part of the actual sport from our fantasy pastime. No.

I don't know if you could tell, but I was working really hard to avoid reaching your next question. (If Barry Sanders came out of retirement, could he start at running back for the New York Jets?) Let me first lay two things out on the table. One, I don't appreciate being smacked in the face like that. Two, Barry Sanders was an unbelievable talent and top five all time at the running back position. If this was three or even five years after he retired, I would be tempted to answer yes. And that is NOT a knock on the Jets' current crop of running backs. Sanders retired with several solid years left in his tank and would have still been a force on the field a few years after he hung up his cleats. Now? No gosh darn way.

The New York Jets are not poor at running back. They have a solid offensive line full of veteran talent that has made the likes of Shonn Greene look good for the last couple seasons. He has his moments, that is all. I loved what I saw out of Bilal Powell last season and as the starter, watch out. He is going to surprise people. Chris Ivory is no slouch either and will provide the one, two punch that Rex Ryan loves to employ. And don't sleep on Joe McKnight either. He's too small to be the full time starter, but his big play potential is huge. Moral of the story, I'm glad to see Shonn Greene move on and am clamoring for our next Curtis Martin. I know you love Barry Sanders, but let him enjoy his retirement.


TODD:
You have your perceived percentages askew. Fantasy football is more like 40% smarts and 60% luck. Isn't paying attention to anything part of smarts? And wouldn't anything having to do with injuries be classified as luck? Unless of course we're talking about drafting Darren McFadden as your number one running back. That injury is on its way; there's no luck about it.

Removing the kicker position would absolutely decrease the luck factor. The baseball closer is a pretty good analogy but not perfect for one reason. Closers are rotated in and out so frequently that the skill involved is about finding saves, not about finding a year-long closer. Kickers are not normally replaced no matter how average or below average they are performing. As an aside, it would be kind of fun to try a fantasy baseball league without the saves stat. We could still use relief pitcher spots, but owners would be trying to find the best RPs in the league, regardless of whether their real-life manager tabs them as their team's closer. The MLB All-Star game seems to be going that way for some, uninteresting reason. The American League was filled with middle relievers who were performing better than closers elsewhere. It was not fun to wait for them to come into the game but it was fun to see the better pitcher rewarded over the guy with more saves.

Now back to the gridiron, and back to the AFC East, where your beloved New York Jets do have a running back problem whether you care to admit it or not. The NFL is a multi-back league for sure. Unless you have one of the top six or so guys, your team needs more than one reliable runner each and every week. Joe McKnight is a nice wild card; I will give you that. And I like Chris Ivory as well, assuming he is a team's second option at RB. But Bilal Powell? His best game last year came against the Jacksonville Jaguars and he barely cleared four yards per carry. The Jets have no number one guy. To venture back to a baseball analogy, they are like a pitching staff with no ace. They have a number two guy and two number three guys. Sure, it may get them some wins but they shouldn't feel confident with that group.

Barry Sanders, on the other hand, is only 45 years old and...okay, that question was just posed to make fun of the Jets. You got me. A few years after he retired, he could have certainly come back into the league. We all knew this at the time. But now it has been an astonishing 15 years since he last played. 15 years! Can you believe that? It seems like just yesterday he was juking, jumping and jiving through defenses.

[If you missed Part one - Off season questions Real & Hilarious]

[If you missed Part two - Tebow vs. Hernandez]

[Part four - A QB decathlon, rookies & the NY Giants]

NFL Kickoff: Off season questions 'Tebow vs Hernandez' - Part two

NFL Kickoff: Off season questions 'Tebow vs. Hernandez' - Part two
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (8-9-13)

[Part one - Questions both Real and Hilarious]



TODD:
Besides going global and dealing with what to call itself, the NFL is also interested in expanding the schedule, playing 18 games. There has even been discussion about playoff expansion. This is ludicrous but if it makes more money, it cannot be ruled out. Which brings us past saturation and back to safety concerns. More games and more high-leverage games means more injuries. I agree though that the game is infinitely safer than even a decade ago. And the equipment is continually being improved upon each and every season. I suppose eventually we will reach a point where the injuries have been curtailed enough to be worth the destructive excitement the sport brings. We are not quite at that point yet though.

I'm not even going to touch that "appeasing the women" comment. Let's just move on to my other NFL questions.


DAN:
Give the foreign fans some credit. They'll call it American Football, or simply the NFL. When you talk about soccer internationally, you usually reference the league, not the sport. The real solution however is for everyone to actually pronounce Futbol as its written and use the accent when they say it. Then its easy to hear the difference. Football. Futbol.

Before I dive into your "Fan" questions, the real off season topics of inquiry, you better promise to answer them yourself. I'm sure I'll have followup questions, ahem, the New York Giants defense, but no cop outs. I need answers!

You asked:
(1) From a pure popularity standpoint, as in most interest by the most people, which New England story was actually bigger news, Aaron Hernandez or Tim Tebow?

I wish I could tell you it was Tim Tebow, but from both a New England fans standpoint and from a national standpoint the Hernandez story is infinitely bigger. Initially, when the Hernandez story first broke, it looked like maybe, just maybe, things were getting blown out of proportion. There were a few days when murder was not part of the discussion and him simply missing six games or the season was all this was. At that point in time, Tebow vs. Hernandez was a conversation. Once murder joined the party this was no longer a far fight between news stories. Murder captures headlines and ends careers. It has certainly ended Hernandez's and now the Patriots have a gaping hole in their lineup.

For most teams the loss of a tight end hurts, but is fixable. Take the New York Jets for example. They "lost" Dustin Keller in free agency and promptly signed a veteran replacement in Kellen Winslow. Savy team decision. But the Patriots, their tight ends have been another teams wide receivers of late. Tom Brady's offense thrives on the short game and throwing over the middle to large targets. Now Hernandez is gone, Gronk is out indefinitely it seems, and the Jets already stole the veteran talent in Winslow whom the Patriots would have gotten in years past. This is trouble.

I now have to talk Tim Tebow for a moment or three. This signing should be bigger news, should be more fun and crazy. I enjoyed over a year and a half of Tebow talk when he was on the Jets. Should they have given him an opportunity to start? Yeah, of course. The team sucked last season and had nothing to lose. Hell, I don't think he would have done anything remotely close to the "Butt Fumble" and would have added much needed excitement to a turnover plagued season. But good riddance! He was a distraction and proved less than an asset since the Jets were not going to play him. Having such a huge personality on the team is great if you use him and is annoying if you don't.

Watch out Patriots. No, there won't be chants for Tebow if Tom Brady has a bad game. I'm not sure he's ever put up more than a poor half of football in his professional life. But there WILL be chants for Tim Tebow. Tebow the tight end, with Hernandez and Gronk out. Tebow the wide receiver or Tebow the running back, with question marks across the line of scrimmage at both positions. Tebow the number two quarterback, if and when he falls to third on their depth chart. The Patriots are blowing out the Dolphins with six minutes to go in the game? Put in Tim Tebow you'll here. I say, please oh please play him! Let him ride the bench to your own peril.


TODD:
Having people actually pronounce things as they are supposed to be said seems like wide eyed naivete, but go ahead and dream.

As for the Patriots off season, obviously the Aaron Hernandez story grew to be a huge deal; perhaps the biggest in NFL history based on the facts. This is an active player who has been accused of murder. O.J. Simpson is the only comparable event and, although he was much more famous than Hernandez ever was, he was already retired when his murder charges were brought on. This is an ACTIVE player...just insane. It dwarfs anything related to Tebow. My question, as the days passed, became more and more one-sided.

But even without the Hernandez story gaining steam as details were unearthed, I actually think New England was partly responsible for Tebow-mania not taking off. They kept him under wraps rather than pushing him to the forefront like a certain New York squad. Did they even hold a press conference when he was signed? Nope. Whereas the Jets did everything but buy advertising time on Fox Sports New York when they brought Tim to their team. Just different mindsets for different franchises. I wouldn't be surprised if Tebow barely plays at all, at any position, for New England, tight end deficiency or not. This just does not seem like the type of franchise that would throw him out there for the sake of it, especially a player like him who (reportedly/apparently) has so much trouble learning plays and responsibilities.

And now with news that Jake Ballard may not even make the final roster because of lingering injury concerns, New England might forget about using the tight end position at all. I had high hopes for Ballard becoming the Patriots' main guy at the spot and having himself a pretty solid season, if unspectacular compared to the likes of Hernandez and Gronkowski. But with that, yet another option that may not come to fruition for the Pats, it may be time to play more running backs and wide receivers. I don't know where else they would turn.

Let's move on though before this becomes an all AFC East blog entry. My next question was in regards to using kickers in fantasy football. Sensible players and experts are aware that, essentially, every kicker is the same. Their point production is perfectly unpredictable from one season to the next. A kicker with a career high in successful kicks has no better chance at repeating that outcome than one who struggled the previous season, assuming the latter still holds a job of course. The stats back this up.

[If you missed Part one - Off season questions Real and Hilarious]

[Part three - The fantasy kicker & Barry Sanders]
[Part four - A QB decathlon, rookies & the NY Giants]

NFL Draft 2013: Losers, there are Always Losers - Part two

NFL Draft 2013: Losers, there are Always Losers - Part two
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (5-3-13)

[Part one - We're all winners Here]



DAN:
I'm pulling out my stick and approaching with caution. Not to poke a sleeping giant, at least not too hard, but did the Patriots forget to show up at the draft? Watching them lose the weekend only made me feel better about the Jets. This could prove to be the AFC East's biggest win overall.


TODD:
The New England Patriots definitely left their fans wanting more. They traded away yet another first round pick. It is hard to make news, good or bad, without selecting someone until pick number 52. Also, I feel like Bill Belichick and company have been getting a bit of a pass here recently. They have not been good at drafting, dare I say awful at it, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Perhaps last year and this year were the beginning of a change back to the early aughts, but New England has been receiving an undeserved benefit of the doubt in this regard for years now.

I don't think the rest of the AFC East outpaced them as much as you hint at though. Miami's draft was so-so; their trade up to number 3 to nab Dion Jordan was filled with questions and few answers. The Jets really disappointed me after their nice day one. If you believe in Geno Smith, you take him in round one. If you don't believe in him as a franchise quarterback, then why take him at all? In my mind, they wasted their second round selection. Whereas the Giants drafted a quarterback because his value was too good to pass up, they at least already have the position filled. The Smith pick was low on risk in round two so there was value there, but they are obviously not sold on his ability to start for them or he wouldn't have lasted until pick 39.

The other reason New England isn't looking so bad is because Buffalo is looking worse. What are the Bills doing exactly? They made a shrewd move to drop from 8 to 16 but then took a player who had no business going at 16. Buffalo's brass must have been kicking themselves when we got to day three and they saw what quarterbacks were still on the board. I like Robert Woods and think he will be a solid pro wide out; I am not sure about much else they did though. They drafted a kicker for god's sake! If EJ Manuel pans out, this will all be moot. I just didn't think he was worthy of where he was selected and the deck sure is stacked against him having early season success.

Did anyone have a worse draft than the members of the AFC East? What a coincidental shit show.


DAN:
Hold on a second! Are you for real, Buffalo drafted a kicker? How did I miss this? That would've been my top headline if I ran ESPN and would go like this:  

"Buffalo Bills punish fans by drafting a kicker - In one of the coldest climates of any NFL team, where kicking is deemed foolish in general, the Bills wasted everyone's time by adding a kicker to their roster on draft day."

I'm completely on board with the AFC shit show, minus the Jets. I disagree fully with your poor analysis of where they selected Geno Smith. He was not guaranteed first round talent, had too many question marks and brought too much pressure and speculation as a first round pick. The Jets got two good years and two bad years out of their last first round quarterback and were not about to let history repeat itself. As a second rounder, Geno Smith will meet all expectations. Namely, I have none for him. I hope he is good enough to win the starting job by 2014, but the main objective of drafting him, besides taking the best player available at a position of need, was to put pressure on the current Jet quarterbacks to actually improve. Mark Sanchez is not a lost cause. He sucked last season and needed a reason to get better. Last year Mark knew he had the job, let it go to his head as everyone gave Tebow the attention, and then crumbled as the team fell apart. Now he has real incentive. The Jets were smart in creating that and here's hoping he makes something of himself.

To the actual AFC East shit showing at the draft, what happened? I mean the Patriots have been the best team in the division for a long time now, and even with poor drafts they have managed to fill their holes year after year. I'm not sure they improved at all at the draft, but they didn't have to. Buffalo always amazes me with their ability to suck. I actually like the EJ Manuel pick in general, but not at 16. I would have wanted the Jets to grab him in the early second round, so maybe that's why they nabbed him, I'm not sure. He impressed me when he made the rounds at ESPN, but why cut Ryan Fitzpatrick if you are planning to draft a rookie quarterback? I would allow the Harvard graduate to mentor the new kid, not toss him aside like a piece of trash. And did Miami attend the draft? I honestly don't know. With rumors of them signing Tim Tebow, its like the Bills, Dolphins and Jets all got together and decided to make huge fools of themselves so that the Patriots still look like a dominant team and the division is relevant.

Having said all that, none of the AFC East teams were the biggest loser. That honor belongs to the sorry folks who call themselves Chiefs fans. Most years their team is just competitive enough to not make the playoffs. But no matter, the biggest losers of the draft were by far Kansas City Chiefs fans.

The Chiefs stunk last season and the only consolation for their fans was the first pick of the draft. Wooo first pick! Oh wait, I'm sorry, but there is no skill position player worthy of that pick. You now have an extremely talented lineman to protect your crappy quarterback. Enjoy.

[Part one - We're all winners Here]