2014 Sports Predictions - Part one

2014 Sports Predictions - Part one
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (12-23-13)



Our predictions played out so well last year, we at Seesaw Sports are ending this year with ten new predictions for 2014. Another crazy year of sports is on the way and we'll tell you who wins and who goes home crying. Ten sports predictions for 2014.



TODD:

1) 2014 Super Bowl teams

Since the beginning of the season, I had pegged the Broncos and the 49ers as my Super Bowl picks. I thought they were the best two teams entering the year, and both looked poised to compete in the playoffs. However, it's a total cop-out when prognosticators hang on an old prediction when a better one has made itself evident. Denver still seems like the likeliest AFC squad to advance through the playoffs, but San Francisco is not better than Seattle, especially if the Seahawks have home field advantage. So I'm going with Denver and Seattle. Now, of course, if San Fran does end up making it, I can still take credit for that as well. I've set myself up for the double prediction!

I have a feeling you will come up with another selection entirely, but it seems as though you'd be grasping at straws. Everyone is flawed. These are the two teams with the fewest. That being said, when is the last time the two "best" teams actually made the Super Bowl? It's been a while.

2) March Madness prediction

Again, I am forced to refer back to prior, mysterious statements that no one can confirm, but coming into the college basketball season, I was very high on Arizona. Of course, now everyone is since the Wildcats climbed their way to the number one ranking in the country. They will certainly not remain number one all year, but I do like them to advance to the Final Four.

A couple other teams I like are Memphis and New Mexico. I don't know if they both will make the Final Four but let's say they both advance past their seeding in the NCAA Tournament. Wait, that's another cop-out. Okay, Elite Eight. They both make the Elite Eight.

3) NBA Finals MVP

This is silly, so I will rephrase things and throw it back to you. If I gave you two options for this,

Option A - LeBron James
Option B - everyone else

Which would you choose?

4) Alex Rodriguez results

In the case of Alex Rodriguez, my prediction is that the arbiter in charge of the proceedings decides to lower the suspension levied against A-Rod but does not erase it entirely. The most logical scenario would seem to be Rodriguez getting his suspension lowered to the 50-game level that everyone else in this drama received. So the A-Bomb is out until early June sometime. By that point, I am sure Yankee fans will be exhausted by Kelly Johnson's exploits and actually welcome Alex back. (I like Kelly Johnson! but not as an everyday player. Get real.)

5) NFL Draft prediction

I'll save my World Series picks until Friday because I have some NFL draft thoughts to cover first. There will be as many as six quarterbacks taken in the first round of the 2014 NFL Draft. You heard me! Even with Marcus Mariota returning to school, the QB crop is as deep as it's been in years, and teams are desperate for a franchise signal caller. To clarify, there will most certainly NOT be six quarterbacks worthy of a first round grade, but at least six get taken day one.


DAN:

1) The two best teams rarely make the Super Bowl and this year's game will be no different. Mojo is the biggest factor in playoff success and two teams stand out with the most mojo this season. The Carolina Panthers will represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. Their mojo couldn't be higher after a monster win over New Orleans this past week. And in the AFC I'm revisiting my prediction from last year, yet this time its coming true. The New England Patriots will continue to defy the odds and roll past the competition on their way to the big game.

Mark it down, we're having a good old fashioned rematch this February. Panthers vs. Patriots for the title.

2) I'm going in a different direction with my initial March Madness prediction. I'm calling it, a team seeded ten or lower will make the Final Four this March. I'm also high on Duke and Arizona, both are Elite Eight teams this season for sure.

3) I like this game, because you have to take the field as I'm going with Lebron James for NBA MVP. I feel pretty darn good about my odds here. Go Heat!

4) I think Alex gets a slightly higher suspension, missing an aesthetically pleasing 65 games. But I don't think he returns to the Yankees this season. As long as teams like Seattle need names to fill seats, A-rod has value on the open market. The Yankees eat half his salary and trade him for some youth. Where you ask? I'm leaning towards Seattle or Colorado. Just a gut feeling.

5) Wow, hard to top that type of prediction. I know the quarterback needs around the league are running high, but six quarterbacks in the first round? I'm predicting the top pick in the draft will NOT be a quarterback. Round two is the new round one for QBs and this year will be more of the same. I like six quarterbacks in round two, but only two taken in round one. Johnny Football slips into round two for sure and the Redskins draft a quarterback. How about them apples?

[Part two - Predictions six to ten]

NBA Draft 2013: A dull affair w/ Real consequence - Part one

NBA Draft 2013: A dull affair w/ Real consequence - Part one
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (6-24-13)



TODD:
Everyone loves the NFL draft; it is an EVENT. The same cannot be said for its professional basketball counterpart. The NBA draft has no zeal, no luster, no...excitement. This happens for many different reasons. Mainly, people don't care as much about the NBA as they do professional football. More fans equals more eyes. But there are other reasons the two drafts are not peers. And the whole thing is counter intuitive; the NBA draft should really be the bigger deal.

There are exponentially fewer players on a basketball roster; thus, one highly drafted player will/should have much more impact on his new team than one, lone footballer. This is simple math, as well as how the sports operate. Unless you're drafting a top flight quarterback, one football pick won't reap huge dividends. It is about roster building, team dynamics, coaching philosophy, etc, etc. However, one basketball player can make all the difference. In this year's NBA Finals, each team was led by a studly, number one overall draft pick: the Spurs in Tim Duncan and the Heat in LeBron James. A single pick can literally turn a franchise around! So then why, if a single player can turn around the hopes and future of an entire franchise, is the NBA draft such a bummer?

The answer lies in who gets drafted. NFL drafts feature seasoned, famous amateurs getting taken through round two and often later. Big name quarterbacks and skill position players still generate interest in the middle and later rounds. These are guys we've seen mature and develop on and off the field for at least three years in college. Compare that to basketball prospects. The top guys are, more often than not, freshmen one-and-dones. They are certainly the most talented players, but we don't know them; their games are raw and under-developed; we watched them for one semester essentially. If they played for a certain university, we might hate them (cough cough Duke). Otherwise, they mean nothing to us; a hired gun set to play a season and bail for greener pastures. These are the men (boys?) that make up the NBA draft. So why should we pay attention?

There is another reason the draft stinks, along those same lines. These guys are not ready. They've only played one season above high school competition. And even the sophomores and juniors that come out are usually not ready to compete at the NBA level. The NBDL is not a minor leagues for the NBA. It might be awesome if it were, but the league is not setup to support such a proposition. So instead of a 19 year old starting off in the d-league, they are thrown into the big time and do not have the bodies nor the experience to play up to their potential. Thus, those top talents put up middling statistics or, even worse, barely get to play. So why watch them get drafted?

With the NBA draft this week, on Thursday, who will go number one? But, more importantly, why should we care?


DAN:
The NBA draft should be the bigger deal, logically, as compared to its NFL counterpart, except it 100% isn't! And you missed the biggest reason entirely. I'm stunned really. First off, the NBA draft was once cooler and more fun than any other draft around. The top two guys were almost guaranteed to be stars in the NBA the following season, but as you noted, with the best players leaving college after one year, fewer and fewer are ready for the NBA on day one.

The SINGLE biggest reason the NBA draft stinks like dirty socks is the draft lottery. I understand the logic behind holding the lottery for the top three picks, it helps curb tanking down the stretch of the regular season. But it hasn't prevented tanking. It just smoothed it out over a larger swath of crappy teams. The NFL is amazing and sells hope for its crappy franchises because every single fan knows that if your team has an awful season, then you are getting a top ten pick. A top ten pick in the NFL is equivalent to a top three pick in the NBA, since rosters are smaller and depth is much less. But in the NBA, if you are the worst team in the league you might get the fourth pick or you might get the first pick. That could be the difference between LeBron James (1st pick in 2003) or a solid role player like Lamar Odom (4th pick in 1999). One is franchise altering, the other is a just a nice pick up. You are not guaranteed the top pick, and as a fan this sucks the life out of you. Hope is not nearly as strong and what has ultimately happened is that the NBA Draft Lottery is actually a bigger deal than the NBA Draft itself!

The other reason the draft stinks is because no one stays in college any more. You mentioned this, but weren't nearly angry enough. The NBA fan who is only a casual college fan, like myself, doesn't know anyone outside the top five of the NBA draft. In the NFL, where players are in college for two or three seasons at least, even casual fans get to know the top guys. Players can transcend this issue, but overall they haven't. They've actually perpetuated it and in recent years have completely killed the buzz surrounding the NBA draft! Super star college players like Adam Morrison from Gonzaga have stunk it up in the NBA. He was a rarity and played a few years in college, we all got to know him and his success, and then bam, he stinks. And the top players who are 'great' enough to leave after one year; they haven't been physically ready and got hurt, a la Greg Oden. Who can we trust to succeed?

A star will be a star. Kevin Durant was a star from day one in the NBA. But the majority of players are not Kevin Durant and need more time in college to mature their game and grow a national audience for themselves as a product. When nearly every superstar in the NBA was drafted in the top three to five, you'd think at least the first half hour of the draft would be fun to watch. You would be wrong.


TODD:
Yeah, I agree the lottery is hogwash. It does not prevent tanking in the least. We only escaped that fate this season because there was no college player worth tanking for. Watch out next year though. If Andrew Wiggins has himself the freshman season everyone is expecting, there will be tanking galore! He's the best high school player since LeBron and it's not even close. The race for last might be more exciting next May then the race for the final playoff spots.

Is the NBA draft fixable for its audience though?

[Part two - Repairs and Reactions]

NFL Draft 2013: Losers, there are Always Losers - Part two

NFL Draft 2013: Losers, there are Always Losers - Part two
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (5-3-13)

[Part one - We're all winners Here]



DAN:
I'm pulling out my stick and approaching with caution. Not to poke a sleeping giant, at least not too hard, but did the Patriots forget to show up at the draft? Watching them lose the weekend only made me feel better about the Jets. This could prove to be the AFC East's biggest win overall.


TODD:
The New England Patriots definitely left their fans wanting more. They traded away yet another first round pick. It is hard to make news, good or bad, without selecting someone until pick number 52. Also, I feel like Bill Belichick and company have been getting a bit of a pass here recently. They have not been good at drafting, dare I say awful at it, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Perhaps last year and this year were the beginning of a change back to the early aughts, but New England has been receiving an undeserved benefit of the doubt in this regard for years now.

I don't think the rest of the AFC East outpaced them as much as you hint at though. Miami's draft was so-so; their trade up to number 3 to nab Dion Jordan was filled with questions and few answers. The Jets really disappointed me after their nice day one. If you believe in Geno Smith, you take him in round one. If you don't believe in him as a franchise quarterback, then why take him at all? In my mind, they wasted their second round selection. Whereas the Giants drafted a quarterback because his value was too good to pass up, they at least already have the position filled. The Smith pick was low on risk in round two so there was value there, but they are obviously not sold on his ability to start for them or he wouldn't have lasted until pick 39.

The other reason New England isn't looking so bad is because Buffalo is looking worse. What are the Bills doing exactly? They made a shrewd move to drop from 8 to 16 but then took a player who had no business going at 16. Buffalo's brass must have been kicking themselves when we got to day three and they saw what quarterbacks were still on the board. I like Robert Woods and think he will be a solid pro wide out; I am not sure about much else they did though. They drafted a kicker for god's sake! If EJ Manuel pans out, this will all be moot. I just didn't think he was worthy of where he was selected and the deck sure is stacked against him having early season success.

Did anyone have a worse draft than the members of the AFC East? What a coincidental shit show.


DAN:
Hold on a second! Are you for real, Buffalo drafted a kicker? How did I miss this? That would've been my top headline if I ran ESPN and would go like this:  

"Buffalo Bills punish fans by drafting a kicker - In one of the coldest climates of any NFL team, where kicking is deemed foolish in general, the Bills wasted everyone's time by adding a kicker to their roster on draft day."

I'm completely on board with the AFC shit show, minus the Jets. I disagree fully with your poor analysis of where they selected Geno Smith. He was not guaranteed first round talent, had too many question marks and brought too much pressure and speculation as a first round pick. The Jets got two good years and two bad years out of their last first round quarterback and were not about to let history repeat itself. As a second rounder, Geno Smith will meet all expectations. Namely, I have none for him. I hope he is good enough to win the starting job by 2014, but the main objective of drafting him, besides taking the best player available at a position of need, was to put pressure on the current Jet quarterbacks to actually improve. Mark Sanchez is not a lost cause. He sucked last season and needed a reason to get better. Last year Mark knew he had the job, let it go to his head as everyone gave Tebow the attention, and then crumbled as the team fell apart. Now he has real incentive. The Jets were smart in creating that and here's hoping he makes something of himself.

To the actual AFC East shit showing at the draft, what happened? I mean the Patriots have been the best team in the division for a long time now, and even with poor drafts they have managed to fill their holes year after year. I'm not sure they improved at all at the draft, but they didn't have to. Buffalo always amazes me with their ability to suck. I actually like the EJ Manuel pick in general, but not at 16. I would have wanted the Jets to grab him in the early second round, so maybe that's why they nabbed him, I'm not sure. He impressed me when he made the rounds at ESPN, but why cut Ryan Fitzpatrick if you are planning to draft a rookie quarterback? I would allow the Harvard graduate to mentor the new kid, not toss him aside like a piece of trash. And did Miami attend the draft? I honestly don't know. With rumors of them signing Tim Tebow, its like the Bills, Dolphins and Jets all got together and decided to make huge fools of themselves so that the Patriots still look like a dominant team and the division is relevant.

Having said all that, none of the AFC East teams were the biggest loser. That honor belongs to the sorry folks who call themselves Chiefs fans. Most years their team is just competitive enough to not make the playoffs. But no matter, the biggest losers of the draft were by far Kansas City Chiefs fans.

The Chiefs stunk last season and the only consolation for their fans was the first pick of the draft. Wooo first pick! Oh wait, I'm sorry, but there is no skill position player worthy of that pick. You now have an extremely talented lineman to protect your crappy quarterback. Enjoy.

[Part one - We're all winners Here]

NFL Draft 2013: We're all winners Here - Part one

NFL Draft 2013: We're all Winners Here - Part one
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (4-29-13)



TODD:
You were right. The second round and into the weekend of the draft was exciting... perhaps more exciting than Thursday night. There were quarterbacks taken rapid fire, running backs not named Lacy kept getting picked, teams traded up for big names, and luckily all the offensive linemen were taken in round one so there were actually some skill position players coming off the board.

In the end, I think the Giants' draft turned out very well. They addressed every need other than linebacker. I enjoyed the Nassib pick as well. And, in my opinion, there is no better selection on draft day than taking a previously highly-touted player who's stock has dropped. Damontre Moore in round three might not pan out, but he was originally predicted as an early first round pick for a reason. It was worth the risk at pick 81 for sure.

Although things are looking good, the Giants certainly did not have the best draft out of anyone. That distinction belongs to the St. Louis Rams.

Of course, you better have a top tier draft when you have two first round picks. But not messing up with those two first round picks isn't always a given. (That was not a shot at the Jets even though it seems particularly obvious that it hints at such a diss.) The Rams came into this draft needing tons of help on offense and in the defensive backfield. They addressed need number one by trading up for Tavon Austin, the best wide receiver in the draft. To build on a strength, they also selected Austin's teammate Stedman Bailey. If Sam Bradford weren't happy enough, the Rams added Barrett Jones up front and a late-round running back.

On the other side of the ball, St. Louis nabbed Alec Ogletree, the best inside linebacker in this draft. And they got him way down at pick number 30. Safety TJ McDonald was then selected in round three to help sure up the defensive backs. This team is by no means a finished product, but with help on both sides of the ball, the NFC West is not guaranteed to be just a two team race anymore.

I also liked what Green Bay and Tennessee did during the draft. Who do you think had the best draft though? We know the answer is not the Jets.


DAN:
I'm hesitant to name an out right winner when so much is unknown, but our New York teams definitely hit the mark in my opinion. I'm going to smoothly agree with your Giants and Rams analysis. Both teams filled major holes and should rebound nicely next season. But the meat of the draft and of today is my NewYork Jets. They may not have had the best draft, but they did a great job overall. Woo! More relevancy.

The Jets nailed this draft for me the fan. Not only did they fill two major defensive holes. They replaced Revis as best as anyone could hope for and added a pash rusher. Not only did they add depth to a paper thin offensive line and trade for a proven running back. Both moves are pretty sweet. The Jets stole top ten level talent in the second round by drafting Geno Smith at quarterback. I was shocked when he didn't go in the first round. I was nearly as surprised to see Geno fall to the Jets in round two as I was for Milliner to fall to them in round one. And today they cleared all the junk out of the trunk by releasing Tim Tebow. If Mark Sanchez gets released next week we'll have a clean sweep! Realistically the Jets will wait to see how David Garrard's health pans out, but this team is making moves.

I couldn't have asked for more. The Jets cleaned out the proverbial house of as much of last year's team as possible. Thank you!

The rest of the league mostly improved on paper, but not to poke a sleeping giant, did the Patriots forget to show up? This could prove to be the AFC East's biggest win of the weekend.

[Part two - Losers, there are Always Losers]

NFL Draft 2013: Part Four - Day one Gone Wrong

NFL Draft 2013: Part Four - Day one Gone Wrong
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (4-26-13)

[Part One - NY Jets, Revis and the Draft]
[Part Two - NY Jets picks and Giants preview]
[Part Three - NY Giants analysis & Draft day predictions]



Actual NY Jets and Giants picks:

NY Jets: Dee Milliner (DB, Alabama) and Sheldon Richardson (DT, Missouri)
NY Giants: Justin Pugh (OT, Syracuse)


Seesaw Sports Predictions:

- Jets select Dee Milliner with the ninth pick (Money in the bank!)
- Giants thin at offensive line but even thinner at linebacker
- Three quarterbacks chosen in first round (Umm.... excuse us a moment)
- Tebow gets traded during the draft (It could still happen!)
- Cleveland botches their first round pick (Barkevious Mingo, DE, practical)
- Linebackers plummet (Three were selected, hardly plummeting)
- Tight ends selected equals Wide receivers selected (Three WR to one TE)
- Mel Kiper's hair looks tremendous (Duh)



TODD:
Well, we pretty much botched all our predictions but the more important point here is this: has the NFL draft gone the way of the NFL playoffs; is it even possible to predict this shit anymore?? Where most things in other sports are becoming more transparent and more sensible with all the information and statistics we now have at our disposal, it seems the NFL is somehow immune to this development.

I mean, right off the bat, the number one overall pick was a semi-surprise. Everyone knew Kansas City was going to select Luke Joeckel number one. I think they may have taken Fisher instead simply to stick it to mock drafters. Why else would they take someone who plays the same position but isn't quite as good?

From there, things were going okay, with some interesting trades sprinkled in, until Buffalo picked at 18. Everyone figured the Bills would take a quarterback in round one. We thought it would happen with the eighth pick. Instead, they traded back knowing they would still get their man and they were right because their man, EJ Manuel, was not expected to be taken by anybody until the weekend.

I'm fine with what the Giants did even though I was really hoping Jarvis Jones was going to fall to them; you must be very happy with how things played out for the Jets, especially getting their Revis-replacement. But overall, is the NFL draft about misinformation more than any other event in all of sports? Do teams purposely release info to confuse us (and opponents)? This seems to be the smartest thing a GM could do but it also seems to go against every reason that Twitter and the internet and Adam Schefter exist.


DAN:
Our Jets and Giants breakdowns were solid across the board. We mixed in our desires with actual team needs and its actually refreshing that team needs won out mostly. I'm thrilled that Milliner fell to the Jets at nine. He is a solid defensive back and will be mentored by one of the best in the game, Cromartie. As for the defensive line selection, I can't argue with striving to increase the Jets poor sack and quarterback pressure numbers from last season. They got crushed up front all year long. If the team goes strong offense in rounds two and three I'm happy. Otherwise, ignoring one of the many offensive linemen in the first round could prove costly for the Jets.

On the Giants front you nailed the glaring need at offensive line, which they promptly filled. For your sake I hope they go linebacker in round two, but that might be a reach at this point.

Overall round one was a snooze fest. Teams are getting smart and with the linemen being the cream of this draft's crop, teams snatched them up. It made for bad television however. To your point, I think much of the misinformation we get leading up to the draft is designed to build buzz. The NFL is the king of buzz, king of headlines and king of the media. They turned their draft into a three day holiday practically, and the build up of buzz is integral to this. They must be licking their chops right now heading into the second round. The first round is always gold for television ratings, no matter who is selected. We got the EJ Manuel pick which was exciting and kind of surprising. After hearing him on ESPN this week I thought he was a true stud, smart and centered. But now day two is upon us and the treasure trove of stud players is enormous. All the 'name' talent who were reaches in round one are steals in round two and the NFL is left with a tremendously exciting second day of coverage. Manti and Geno are still around, not to mention all the running backs and tight ends on the board.

The NFL deserves some applause, orchestrating yet again another exciting day of draft coverage. Pause for a nice slow golf clap. Now throw in the young boy suffering with a terminal illness who came up and announced his favorite team's pick, the Saints, and we can up our applause to a full on clap. Thanks NFL for making April fun.

Now if only the Jets would make things fun and actually add some talent to our division three level offense. Thanks guys!

[Part One - NY Jets, Revis and the Draft]

[Part Two - NY Jets picks and Giants preview]

[Part Three - NY Giants analysis & Draft day predictions]

NFL Draft 2013: Part Three - NY Giants analysis & Draft day Predictions

NFL Draft 2013: Part Three - NY Giants analysis & Draft day Predictions
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (4-22-13)

[Part One - NY Jets preview, Revis trade & the Draft]
[Part Two - NY Jets picks & NY Giants preview]



TODD:
The biggest gaping hole for Big Blue is probably defensive back. The linebacking corp is weaker as a unit but linebackers are easier to find and plug in. However, good DB's are scarce and so integral to a team's success. The Giants lost Kenny Phillips this off-season; Corey Webster, their best corner, has been awful for going on two years and it may be that he simply lost a step, meaning he will continue to be terrible; youngsters Prince Amukamara and Jayron Hosley may not be ready to start and there is little depth behind that trio. Especially with the way the defensive front took a step back in their rushing skills last season, the defensive backfield is as important and as weak as ever.

A trade at this point seems unlikely, although I hear you guys have a solid corner you are dangling to the trade sharks. Wouldn't that be fun? The Jets giving up one of their franchise's best players ever to their big brothers. But Revis is a Buccaneer now and the Giants are right up against the cap and have little room to make a big splash.

Rebuilding is certainly not an option with this team, but it is also not necessary at all. We are not that far away. Last year was a step back but a small one. Some things went wrong, some players underachieved while others got hurt; and the rest of the division is definitely tough. But with a rebound from the passing game and the pass rush (two areas that played well below expectations in 2012 but are strengths of the team), the Giants could be the cream of the NFC East again.

One player to keep an eye on is slot receiver Rueben Randle. He is taking over third receiver responsibilities for the departed Domenik Hixon and should get a ton of playing time this season. Randle may also get a shot at returning punts or kicks (or both). His quickness and speed will be a key compliment to the precise catching/route running of Cruz and the power and athleticism of Hakeem Nicks. At the end of the year, Rueben Randle may be the biggest reason New York's passing game came back to form in 2013.


DAN:
The Giants better draft a speedy defensive end and a speedy defensive back or two, otherwise they will never catch RG3 of the Redskins or whomever the Eagles trot out at QB. You know that dude will be a runner with Chip Kelly at the helm. If the Giants were in any other city, then a trade with the Jets would be a possibility. But as long as they share a stadium, Revis will never be dealt to big blue. Fireman Ed already retired as the NY Jets super fan, but if Revis is a Giant the stadium may be empty week one out of protest. Now that he's a Buc we can lay that argument to bed.

So it seems you feel good about your Giants. If you personally aren't targeting anyone as a guy you hope they draft, then let's jump into the good stuff. Draft day predictions, and not the run of the mill, anyone can come up with selections of the other NFL teams on the board. That's like hitting the snooze button on this article. I'm talking BIG trades, major shockers and men sitting idly in the green room for hours being forced to answer the uncomfortable question of why they have yet to be drafted. For the uninformed, the green room is where the prospective top twenty talent sit and wait to be selected. This year in particular, every quarterback in that room will be on edge. Do they go early or fall back to the second round, forced to return to the green room yet again on day two?

Three Seesaw predictions for Draft Day 2013:

1. Three quarterbacks will be selected in the first round

Explanation - There are too many teams in desperate need of an upgrade at the game's most important position. I know the GM's are claiming they've gotten smarter, and this year's crop of quarterbacks is lacking, but owners want to sell tickets and the hope of a new franchise man under center does just that.

2. Tim Tebow gets dealt during the draft

Explanation - If the Jets have shown us anything, its that they will make the move that provides the splashiest headline. Dealing Tebow during the draft will be the ONLY headline on Friday morning, heading into day two, and the Jets will steal the nation's attention for off the field hijinks once again.

3. The Cleveland Browns botch their first round pick, number six overall

Explanation - None necessary. Its Cleveland.


TODD:
Your quarterback prediction is sound and impossible to argue with. Zero quarterbacks deserve first round selections, but that seems to never matter. The position is just too important for teams not to take flyers on guys and hope they turn into something. I would rather see a team take a better player with their first pick and stab at a mid-round QB like Seattle did last year. The chances of hitting another Russell Wilson though seem remote. Tyler Bray and Mike Glennon are two guys to keep an eye on. They both have tremendous size and tangibles, but struggled with more acute aspects of their game in college... kind of like the anti-Russell Wilson to be honest. They should deliver great value to a team in the middle rounds even if a Wilson-like onslaught of the league is unlikely in year one.

I won't even address your second prediction since, to me at least, the trading of a backup is not newsworthy.

It is funny you threw in your third prediction since I believe it will be entirely linked to your first. The Browns will botch their first round pick because they will take a quarterback who is undeserving of that slot, kind of like they did last year.

My predictions for the 2013 NFL Draft:

1. Linebackers will plummet

Explanation - Jarvis Jones, one of the best half dozen defensive players in the nation during the 2012 season, is tumbling down draft boards because of his injury concerns and terrible combine numbers. Alec Ogletree is falling for off-field and character concerns. Manti Te'o is dropping for both of these reasons. According to Scouts Inc.'s Big Board, the three backers are all ranked between 13th and 24th overall. I see Ogletree dropping to the very end of that span, Jones dropping out of it and Te'o falling out of the first day completely. Not only are linebackers routinely passed over in drafts, but these three specifically have too many questions attached to them.

2. As many tight ends will be taken in the first round as wide receivers

Explanation - The wide receiver crop this year is solid even if there is no top tier, Calvin Johnson type available. This is more a declaration of how important the tight end position is becoming in the NFL. Teams need athletic guys who can create mismatches. This year's draft has two guys, Tyler Eifert and Zach Ertz, who will most certainly be taken in the top 32 picks. I see only two wide receivers going in the same span.

3. Mel Kiper's hair will look tremendous

Explanation - It always does.

[Part Four - Day one Gone Wrong]

[Part One - NY Jets preview, Revis trade & the Draft]

[Part Two - NY Jets picks & NY Giants preview]

NFL Draft 2013: Part Two - NY Jets picks & Giants preview

NFL Draft 2013: Part Two - NY Jets picks & Giants preview
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (4-19-13)

[Part One - NY Jets preview & Darrelle Revis]



DAN:
I don't need your pretend empathy. The Giants have won too much for you to ever understand what its like for your favorite football team to have never won a championship in your lifetime. The Jets won Superbowl III and I'm excited for the day when that no longer matters so much. Here's to the future and getting some good value for Revis!

Let's assume the Jets make the trade I proposed, they deal Revis and a pick for three pics and a player. Its better than letting him walk and could lead to some heavy hitters in the draft. The Bucs have high pics this year, so there 2013 second round pick is a good one. I'd venture to say that their first round pick next season will be top fifteen, so both are looking good. Here's who I want with the 9th pick in 2013 and the Jets and Bucs second rounders in 2013. I know Rex Ryan loves defense and could use some speed in the linebacking core, but the offense was hugely underwhelming last season and should be the focus heading into the draft, with one BIG exception.

9th pick: Mel Kiper has Dee Milliner, CB from Alabama, going at number five. If he's still available when the Jets are on the board, I want them to pick him with the 9th pick. This is not inconceivable and would provide a cornerback for the future to try and replace the loss of Revis. Plus they have Cromartie to teach the kid the ropes. If Milliner is gone, then I want Lane Johnson, OT from Oklahoma. Kiper has him at eleven, but the Jets couldn't protect a fly let alone Sanchez last season. They need to bolster their offensive line and Johnson is their man.

2nd round pics: Lumping together the Jets own second round pick and the one from the Bucs, I go strong offense here. If Eddie Lacy, RB Alabama, drops to them in the early second round then the Jets should grab him faster than a kid on Christmas. Kiper has him at 26th in the first round, but we shall see. Then, with the Bucs pic I want to go quarterback. I think Landry Jones, QB from Oklahoma, is a great grab in the mid second round. His TD/INT ratio is solid, with a lot of yards to show for himself. Also, at 6'4" and 218 he can withstand the beating he's sure to get as quarterback of the Jets... We Jets fans are self deprecating okay? Geez.

I would love to tell you about next year's draft as well, but that's a little out there for me. What's your take on the situation and the Jets' draft needs? And more importantly, who are your Giants targeting? They underachieved last season too and have some holes to fill now.


TODD:
I would agree that Milliner would be a very nice selection at ninth overall, especially with the circular nature of him replacing the star they just shipped out of town. However, I also agree it is (not inconceivable but) unlikely he will be there. There are so many talented pass rushers available at the top of this draft. Although you know better than me whether the Jets would sorely regret passing on some offensive line help instead of improving at defensive end. If o-line is the choice, Eric Fisher, Lane Johnson or Jonathan Cooper seem like nice options. If the Jets can come away with either the best guard on the board or one of the top three tackles, they should be pleased.

As far as the second round goes, this is where I am no longer with you. I have seen too many teams make mistakes by grabbing a running back early. They are too volatile, too interchangeable and too dependent on the team around them. There are going to be backs drafted well after Eddie Lacy who have a better career than him, mark it down. And I understand the desire to grab a quarterback any chance you get. A team without a reliable QB might as well be taking the season off. But Landry Jones is not the answer. We may see half a dozen quarterbacks get taken in the second round, each with certain strengths and weaknesses. I feel like there are better upside plays than taking Jones and the Jets may even be better off helping the rest of their roster and waiting another season on finding that future behind center.

The Giants are certainly lucky in that respect. They do not have to worry about filling the quarterback position. What we do have to fill though, is almost everything else. Offensive line is thin, wide receiver is in dire straits if Victor Cruz does not return, defensive line lost a number of pieces, the linebacking shelf is as empty as ever and the defensive backfield could use some work. What else is left? Oh, we also might need a running back to split carries with David Wilson.

In recent years, the Giants have done very well for themselves drafting the best player available when their turn is up. I have confidence in the front office to continue this trend, especially with how many places are areas of need this off-season. The only thing I'll say is that I hope they finally draft a linebacker pretty early. Year after year the Giants choose to push linebacker to a secondary concern, as if it isn't an important spot. And while the position can be filled by players who are not elite athletes and a linebacker's success may hinge greatly on who is playing in front of him, it is still frustrating to see the Giants' list of starting linebackers week one of each new season. It never looks pretty.


DAN:
I'd be thrilled if the Jets went o-line in the first round, but if Rex Ryan has a say about it they probably go the pass rushing route and grab a speedy defensive end. Your Giants could learn a thing or two in that respect as they definitely need to bolster the defense. Assuming Victor Cruz re-signs, then Eli Manning to Cruz can win you some games, but the defense will loose a bunch if something isn't done. You noted a ton of holes for the Giants. What's the biggest gaping hole and can it be filled via the draft? Is it the linebackers, and if the draft class won't cut it, do the Giants look to trade in order to return to form this season.

The Giants, unlike the Jets, are in the interesting position of having taken a step back while in their franchise quarterback's prime. Rebuilding is not an option here, yet no QB can compensate for all a team's shortfalls. The Giants front office is outstanding and has never let the fans down in Eli's career, so am I missing something? Any sneaky backup players to watch this season? A free agent you wish they'd grab? I'm fairly confident the Giants compete for the top spot in the NFC East again this season, yet I'm at a loss for how they start the year as a better team then the Redskins or Cowboys.

[Part Three - NY Giants analysis & Draft day Predictions] 
[Part Four - Day one Gone Wrong]

[Part One - NY Jets preview & Darelle Revis]

NFL Draft 2013: Part One - NY Jets, Revis & the Draft

NFL Draft 2013: Part One - NY Jets, Revis & the Draft
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (4-15-13)



TODD:
Rumor has it, Darrelle Revis might get dealt this month during the NFL draft. As a New York Jets fan, how does this make you feel? This seems ten times worse than the Bears releasing Brian Urlacher or the Ravens letting Ed Reed walk. Darrelle Revis is still really good. In fact, (sportswriter caveat warning) if he is fully healthy, Revis is the very best defensive back in the league. The BEST.

Do the Jets not believe he will ever return to his old form? Is that why he's been so clearly available? Do they think he will be past his prime by the time the Jets are ready to compete, thus trading him for assets makes more sense? Or is it something else?

Reportedly, the Jets want Tampa Bay's first round pick (13th overall) for the DB. According to ESPN Rumor Central, the Bucs want to wait until draft day and see who goes in the top twelve. If one of their targets drops, they might balk on the deal. But if no one strikes their fancy, they would pull the trigger for Revis. Of course, they have also offered a first round pick for the following draft and would be willing to throw in additional pieces for the Jets to take that offer. If you're New York, wouldn't you just assume add as many picks as possible (thus taking the 2014 first rounder) if you are going to go this route anyway?

In a larger sense, this type of deal happens all the time, in all the major sports. A star player gets dealt for draft picks and teams are always delighted to get the picks. But how often is that selection, even a first rounder, anything close to the player the star is? I get the idea of rebuilding but how come no one is ever able to rebuild with younger talent who is already in the league? You're telling me there is not a single cornerback in the NFL right now who is younger, cheaper but not as good as Revis that the Jets could obtain? Why wouldn't a contender be looking for that skill upgrade?


DAN:
Way to poke an open wound. Darrelle Revis is in my top three all time Jets I've had the pleasure to watch. He falls behind Curtis Martin and Ladainian Tomlinson. Martin is number one because we got him in his prime, while Tomlinson was singing his swan song. Both game changers, yet you could convince me Revis is number one and I wouldn't be upset about it. He is that dynamic, that powerful as a weapon and a shut down guy that he instantly makes the entire team better. Having BOTH Revis and Antonio Cromartie on the field was a dream that felt too good to be true and hasn't lasted.

Having said all that, it was agony the last time Revis held out for more money before the final year of his deal. This took place a mere two years ago and none of us, especially the Jets front office, have forgotten. Throw in the fact that the team was just awful last year, needs more new players than exist on the open market and have way too much long term money committed to junk, and you have a BIG problem. So what do you do? I don't want to see Revis leave, but I'm with the Jets on this one. I can't justify paying him what he wants and has definitely earned. The team needs too many other guys and one player on defense can't win anything. Let me stress however that I do not think the Jets made any effort to re-sign him, which pisses me off to no end.

I was reveling in the Rex Ryan era, having finally shook the stink of "The Same old Jets," but it seems that was short lived. The same old Jets do this. They make mistake after mistake and alienate their players it would seem. I'm going to speak with the assumption that the Jets have chosen not to re-sign Revis or play out the 2013 season with him on roster. This was apparent to me after they chose not to speak to him, stated publicly that no player was safe, and then stated publicly that Revis won't be traded. As we know, that means he will.

The Jets have to get as much as possible for the best defensive player of his generation. I don't think the ACL injury matters. With ample rehab time we've seen time and time again how players come back at equal or greater skill level. Most recently Adrian Peterson did just this. I'm going one step further and saying that getting draft picks is NOT enough. They need a player or two and two picks. I'm with you, get a young guy from the Bucs along with the pics. We all thought nothing could top the Butt Fumble, but this debacle is starting to. Here's my proposal for the trade:

Jets send Darrelle Revis and a fourth round pick in 2013 to the Bucs.
Tampa Bay sends their first round pick in 2014, their second round pick in 2013, their sixth round pick in 2013 and Player X to the Jets.

I don't know who Player X should be, but anyone is better than no one. Draft pics are like lottery tickets with a slightly better return. At least a player is a real human being. And we all know the Jets need real human beings playing for them. Conjecture and boasting won't catch and tackle for you. And neither will Mark Sanchez.... yeah I made the joke. Better I say it than you.


TODD:
It does seem rather difficult being a Jets fan. I wouldn't know personally as my favorite team has won multiple Super Bowls in the last ten years. But I can imagine... kind of.

Let's say the Jets do make your proposed trade. They send away Revis and a mid-round pick for a first rounder next year, a couple mid-rounders this year and a contributing, young player. Most likely, the most productive 2013 player will be that guy who has already played a couple seasons. With that in mind, who would the second round pick, or even the first round pick next season, have to be in order for this to work out well for New York? Taking a look at the big board, is there anyone you hope they are targeting?

[ Part Two - NY Jets picks and NY Giants preview]
[Part Three - NY Giants analysis & Draft day Predictions] 
[Part Four - Day one Gone Wrong]