NBA All Stars: Should fans decide - part two

NBA All Stars: Should fans decide - part two
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (1-31-14)

[Part one - All Star teams collide]



TODD:
I have to address the more important issue now, Kobe Bryant. His inclusion in the starting lineup of the NBA All-Star game bothers me for myriad of reasons. This is a fan vote of course, but that doesn't mean the fans deserve it.

What is happening here is the NBA is turning into the MLB. Either the game counts or it doesn't. And what I mean is not literally whether who wins the All-Star game matters in basketball like in baseball. But the game acknowledgement does. A player making an All-Star game is historic. It matters for the legacy of a player, as well as the story of the league.

As you pointed out, Kobe's run of All-Star invites will continue. This will mark his 16th selection in his 18-year career. When it comes time to determine Hall of Fame resumes and where a player stands in the pantheon of his sport, All-Star games are often referenced. When next generation's Bill Simmons releases The Book of Basketball Part Two and tries to determine who is the better Laker between Kobe and Magic Johnson, the All-Star game appearances will come up. And you know what? In forty years, no one is going to remember that Kobe's 2014 selection was a joke and a debacle. It will just be an appearance like any of the others.

I guess my problem with the fan vote is that they are too stupid to be given this kind of power. There are only three solutions. Here they are, in order of practicality from "impossible" to "why is this not already the case?!?":

1. Lessen the historical value of a player making an All-Star game. Value All-NBA team selections instead and phase out the worth of the All-Star game appearance itself.

2. Don't let fans vote. Fans are, by definition, biased and crazy.

3. Give the fans a crop of players to vote from for the starting lineups. A player such as Kobe Bryant would not be eligible since he's barely played this season.

Tell me why number three wouldn't work.


DAN:
I'm glad you acknowledged the ridiculousness of options one and two. There are very few benchmarks to compare players between generations. All Star game appearances is one of the best, disregarding the obvious caveat where a player past his prime continues to get voted in. And we have to let the fans vote. The All Star game is just a show. There is little to no defense played, so it is literally (spoken a la Rob Lowe's character from Parks and Recreation) a fun event for the fans to enjoy. They should get to see who they want, with one caveat that you very nicely addressed in option three.

I really like the idea of giving the fans a specific ballot, but leaving Kobe Bryant off entirely would be a HUGE mistake by the NBA. The All Star voting is international. The NBA wants to grow the sport internationally. Kobe Bryant is the most popular and most famous NBA player internationally. See the problem? He got voted in because the world still loves him and probably doesn't even realize he's been injured, or doesn't care. I know this speaks to a different issue, but the NBA has to market its most popular players and Kobe Bryant is up there in the top three, if not number one.

It would however be easy for the NBA to get the final All Star voting results, look at them and rule that a player must have played in at least 50% of his team's games this season to be a starter. The player can still be on the All Star team, but they can't be considered a starter if they've played less than half of his team's games. This is not a particularly unfair rule and still leaves voting in the hands of the fans. Let them vote in all the hurt guys they want, but they won't be named a starter because they've been injured or suspended.

Did I solve your problem?


TODD:
That fails to solve the problem of a player's career resume being bumped up by faulty selections. The fact that a player is actually "starting" the game is irrelevant to me. Kobe Bryant did not deserve to be named an All-Star this season. Thus, he should not have been on the ballot if we can't trust fans to actually make that distinction.

This event is not supposed to be a popularity contest. It is supposed to reward the players who are having the best season. Otherwise, Jeremy Lin should just be starting point guard for both teams. Let him switch sides at halftime.

[If you missed Part one - All Star teams collide]

NBA All Star teams collide - part one

NBA All Star teams collide - part one
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (1-27-14)



DAN:
The lineups for the NBA All Star teams got announced and there are a few obvious points of contention and one major question. Obviously Kobe Bryant starting for the West is a classic case of fan intervention. He's barely played this season, but his streak of All Star games will remain intact.

I want to know, who do you like in a straight up match of five on five? The East starters or those from the West?

Eastern Conference

LeBron James, MIA
Paul George, IND
Carmelo Anthony, NYK
Dwyane Wade, MIA
Kyrie Irving, CLE

Western Conference

Kevin Durant, OKC
Stephen Curry, GS
Kobe Bryant, LAL
Blake Griffin, LAC
Kevin Love, MIN

I'm thinking complete package for my team of five and not getting caught up on the LeBron James bandwagon. Right now, during the 2014 season Kevin Durant is rivaling LeBron for greatest player in the league. Blake Griffin and Kevin Love can take Paul George and I'll take hobbled Kobe over hobbled Dwyane Wade thank you very much.

That brings us to our final players for each starting squad. Kyrie Irving and Carmelo Anthony to match up with Stephen Curry. I'll take Curry over either one of those men individually. Yes, yes the Paul George double team could hold us back, leaving either Melo or Irving alone on the perimeter. But it won't matter; we'll be raining so many three pointers your squad will crying to their mamas.


TODD:
I want to talk about Kobe Bean Bryant, but let me first address these "lineups" you referenced.

Everyone, including me, was all for the removal of the mandatory center position on the All-Star starting lineup. It was instead replaced by a declaration of simply "front court player." However, it is clear that this generalization was taken too far. The East does not even have a feasible team to trot out. Hopefully, for their sake, Dwyane Wade is not able to play and they can replace him with an actual front court player. Right now, the East is comprised on two guards, two small forwards and whatever you want to categorize LeBron James as.

Fortunately, the West isn't much better in terms of mismatches. Kevin Durant is a stretch four. Kevin Love and Blake Griffin are legitimate power forwards except neither one of them can protect the rim on defense. The best shot-blocker in the starting lineups is probably Durant. As of 1/26, not a single one of these 10 men was in the top 40 in the NBA in blocks. It's a bit ridiculous.

Because of this, it seems arbitrary to even field your question on which side would win a five on five matchup. Not only are all 10 of these guys not going to be healthy enough to play, but these 10 men hardly resemble two workable starting lineups.

If they were going to suit up, the game would really come down to one matchup though.

Kyrie Irving and Stephen Curry could match each other even if Curry is a better shooter; neither is a very good defensive player and both would probably score at will (in what will become a theme here).

Kobe and Wade, as you mentioned, could also hold each other down, or at least match each other offensively with their old men games of semi-post-ups and half fades.

Paul George could guard Durant as well as any human can. George is one of the most physically gifted wings in the NBA. Durant does look like the league MVP at the halfway mark of the season, but PG was the MVP at the quarter mark, so he's nothing to sniff at.

Carmelo would then slot onto Blake Griffin. Neither could really stop the other in the post, so it would just be a scoring barrage. But this is the All-Star game after all.

That leaves just two men to check each other: the Akron Hammer and poor, poor Kevin Love. Love is probably the best combination of rebounding and outside shooting we have in the league right now, but he cannot hope to contain LeBron in any facet of the game. The West would have to employ some sort of rotation zone and force the East to beat them from the outside. This is a plausible tactic as the East does not have anywhere near the shooters the West does. However, athletically and fundamentally, the East has a huge edge just because they are playing with the skill sets of five smalls.

If the West had been given an actual center who could block shots or someone more imposing than either Griffin or Love, I would like its chances. However, as it stands, the East has the edge simply because there is no spot on the court where the West can take advantage of them.

[Part two - Should fans decide?]

Sports Injuries: When stars fall - Part one

Sports Injuries: When stars fall - Part one
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (11-4-13)



TODD:
The Red Sox made an interesting improvement this season, going from last in their division to first and a World Series title. Remarkable? Not really. Last year's team shouldn't have been that bad; it really just came down to injuries. Injuries!

Jonah Keri did a great job of detailing this recently in a piece for Grantland. Here is his table that pushed the point home:

Player:                                                                             Games Played        WAR

Jacoby Ellsbury (2012)	74	1.4
Jacoby Ellsbury (2013)	134	5.8
David Ortiz (2012)	90	2.9
David Ortiz (2013)	137	3.8
Dustin Pedroia (2012)	141	4.4
Dustin Pedroia (2013)	160	5.4
John Lackey (2012)	0	0.0
John Lackey (2013)	29	3.2

The column on the left is Games Played and the column on the right is Wins Above Replacement (WAR). As you can see, from just four players, the Sox gained roughly 10 wins from one season to the next. This factors in none of the moves they made or improvements in other players, call-ups, whatever. A full 10 wins came from just these four guys staying healthy.

It is a rather remarkable discovery in my opinion. But what it really does is make the Red Sox story even less interesting. They were bad in 2012 because their best guys all got hurt. They were great in 2013 because their best guys all stayed healthy. As Yankee fans, we can relate.

This question goes way beyond baseball or the Red Sox. Are injuries ruining the fun of professional sports? It does not seem that concussions are lessening in the NFL; just last year, the NBA was demolished by major injuries to major stars. And we can see here what a small number of injuries in baseball can do to a contender. This has probably always been the case, but it seems much more stark these days.


DAN:
I'm deeply fascinated by the idea that a team could turn itself around so dramatically from one season to the next, simply by staying healthy. But in the grand fasion of debate, I disagree with your argument. The Red Sox may have gained ten wins this season, but they had a new manager, a new bullpen and most importantly, a killer new closer. It wasn't just the injuries. But ten wins is ten wins and as more QBs drop like flies each week in the NFL, this is a great topic to rip to shreds.

I'd be nice if life was as simple as you paint it. But I actually think there are far fewer sports injuries now than in the past. Medicine is better, training is better and players know how to care for themselves a lot better. What's caused us to be so damn aware of every little thing is three fold. First, if there are less injuries then we will know a lot more about the ones that do exist. Second, every little bump and bruise is taken way more seriously with the million dollar contracts these men hold. And third, fantasy sports makes us care a heck of a lot about the health of our star players. Now that I laid that out there, the real issue is how a single injury to your team's star can actually ruin a season.

No one really notices if your team's star stays healthy. Tom Brady is playing, dominating, and all is well in the world. But the one year he got knocked out, well damn did we take notice. The team still did well, but all the what ifs start creeping into play. This year in the NFL I can rattle off at least four or five teams that lost their QB and are worse for it. I can also name at least one, my beloved NY Jets, who are better off in the long run because they lost a QB. Sorry Mark, but better to move on now with a season of hope, then later with a season like Jacksonville is having. How are they actually that bad? I don't get it. Its like the players are afraid of crossing the end zone, much like a child who doesn't want to step on the cracks in the sidewalk.

So what are we really talking about here? Its not just injuries, but its knee and shoulder injuries. Nothing else seems to matter much. The NFL is so worried about protecting the head. Its definitely important, don't get me wrong. But this has to be evidence towards them actually caring about player safety, right? Because protecting the knees and shoulders goes much farther towards not having a star out for the season. In Sam Bradford's case, he just shouldn't have skipped out of bounds.... too soon?


TODD:
I agree with your three basic premises. We do know more about every injury because of coverage and the fantasy sports element for sure. And I think your second point was the most important. We hear about EVERYTHING; perhaps 60% of these same level injuries did not even make news 15 years ago. That is absolutely plausible and may even be a higher percentage.

The star injuries is what seems most alarming though. The 2012-2013 NBA season was a whirlwind of All-Stars going down for long stretches; Russell Westbrook, Derrick Rose, Kevin Love, Rajon Rondo, etc. And already in the NFL season, just halfway through mind you, here is an incomplete list of impactful guys out:

Julio Jones, Dennis Pitta, EJ Manuel, Jay Cutler, Lance Briggs, Leon Hall, Geno Atkins, Brian Hoyer, Champ Bailey, Randall Cobb, Clay Matthews, Brian Cushing, Reggie Wayne, Ahmad Bradshaw, Jerod Mayo, Vince Wilfork, Malcom Floyd, Sidney Rice, Percy Harvin, Michael Crabtree, Sam Bradford, Carl Nicks.

Not only is that list just the most famous names, it doesn't even include guys who've missed over a month and are now back, like Jake Locker, or played some and have been periodically out, like Roddy White or Mike Vick. All those guys are already out or on IR officially. And this is week 9.

It can't just be a coincidence, can it? Or just simple mathematics of playing time? I realize the better players will usually play more minutes and thus have a higher likelihood of getting hurt, but to have such a rash of severe injuries to important players seems so fluky it must mean something. I just don't know what that 'something' is.

What is definitely not a coincidence is certain teams, like the Kansas City Chiefs, have remained rather healthy thus far, leading to their unexpected success. I believe if the numbers were plotted, the amount of surprise teams has more to do with injuries, or lack thereof, than people realize. If you want to have a jump on a surprise playoff pick for next baseball season, just scour through the data and see which team lost the most games from their top level talent. That would have pointed us towards a Boston comeback this season for sure.

[Part two - NFL Upside down & Changing Expectations]

MLB All-Stars: Ballot predictions sure to Hate - Part two

MLB All-Stars: Ballot predictions sure to Hate - Part two
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (7-5-13)

[Part one - Yes, please stuff my Ballot box]



TODD:
I talked AL predictions already, but as for the National League let's go through position by position again to find where the mistakes will lie. First Base will be fine. It will either go to Arizona's Paul Goldschmidt or Cincinnati's Joey Votto. No one else is close and no one else will come close.

Second Base gets a little interesting since a few guys have had good years. Daniel Murphy, Matt Carpenter and Brandon Phillips have all been solid if unspectacular and there's no big name here having a good enough year to steal the spot from one of these guys. We should be okay.

Shortstop is interesting for a different reason. Three guys are having monster seasons but I will hate who ends up starting; mark it down. Troy Tulowitzki will most likely win the vote but he is currently injured. The other two deserving candidates (Everth Cabrera and Jean Segura) are no-names in small markets. They will get beat out by someone like Andrelton Simmons. Simmons plays for the Braves and has been pretty good and is a good defensive shortstop. He may end up getting the nod just by playing in Atlanta.

Third Base is safe. Everyone stinks except David Wright. David Wright plays for a team who calls Citi Field their home. The All-Star game is being played at Citi Field. Third base is safe.

Catcher should also be safe assuming MVP candidate Yadier Molina doesn't get passed over for Buster Posey. This seems possible but improbable.

NL Outfield will play host to my final indiscretion. There are a number of deserving candidates but the clear top three are Carlos Beltran, Carlos Gomez and Carlos Gonzalez. My worry is that as many as all three may not win the vote. There are a couple of much bigger names who may usurp the starting spot. They come in the form of Ryan Braun (hasn't been that good and is now hurt), Yasiel Puig (came up too late to accumulate enough stats), Dominic Brown (Phillies' savior has home runs and nothing else), Bryce Harper (hasn't played enough to warrant a top three spot), Justin Upton (has really been awful after a scalding start). If one, two or three of these men start in the All-Star game, it will be ridiculous. Really if anyone who has a first name other than Carlos is starting in the NL outfield, I am going to be pissed.

So that's where I stand. Luckily, there are very few places for voters to make mistakes this season. They will still find a way to mess up the final AL outfield slot, NL shortstop and perhaps all of the NL outfield slots.

For America's pastime, Americans sure do make a ton of wrong decisions when it comes to the All-Star game.


DAN:
Three mistakes out of seventeen positions is NOT an atrocity. If I was successful 80% of the time at everything then I'd already be a millionaire with a hefty yacht and some servants. I've got three of my own predictions that I'll hate come Saturday's lineup reveal, but your's require some serious argument.

You asked earlier if I would vote a Yankee over anyone and I said no, only if all stats were equal. Well I lied. I DO NOT want to see Alex Rios take the field over Brett Gardner. Gardner is a beast, like the flash on the base paths and in the outfield. I've been to one Yankees game this season and he had two web gems in that game alone, plus he's been putting up clutch hits night after night for a team sorely lacking in offense. I don't care if Rios' stats are better, Gardner gets my vote! Unfortunately, Gardner has dropped out of the top 15 vote getters for AL outfield. Torii Hunter in fifth? Really America!

I can understand, as a numbers purest, how the AL outfield will cause you displeasure, but NL shortstop and NL outfield? The National League shortstop position is lacking cache, to put it kindly. I get it, you want to see a lesser known get voted in since they've got the stats to warrant it. But if America doesn't know them, they aren't getting the vote! And if America doesn't know them, are they really deserving yet? I hope Everth Cabrera gets the spot, but it won't bother me either way. As for NL outfield, although it would be comical for all three men to be named Carlos, they don't all deserve it! I don't care if Bryce Harper has been injured, he can be on the team for what he did the second half of last year. And Yasiel Puig, he better make it. There is no one, I repeat NO ONE, who was been more exciting and dominant in the last month than Puig. I get it, he needs to earn his stripes, but hasn't his absolute domination of big league pitching proven he's worthy? Puig is in! One of the Carlos' is out. Now let me jump into my hate filled predictions before I really get on a tangent.

Three things I'll HATE about the All-Star lineups:

1 - Andrew McCutchen will not be starting in the NL outfield.
This is an atrocity! One of the best players on the best team in baseball is not starting the All-Star game. A bigger atrocity, the Pirates will end up with zero starters for the National League. How can Justin Upton beat out McCutchen and Harper? Upton is on my fantasy team. He had one great month, but that was April. Lately I wish I had a replacement for him. If Upton gets in for his April then Puig should be a lock for his June. Come on!

2 - I hate how nearly EVERY starting player is on the All-Star ballot.
I'm a Yankees fan, but MLB has put Mark Teixeira, Derek Jeter and Kevin Youkilis on the ballot. (Leaving off Alex Rodriguez mind you) That's just dumb! We are allowed to write in our own candidates, so why list so many players at a position? Americans do in fact follow the sport of baseball, so we know who we want to write in, if necessary.

3 - If Pujols gets the starting AL first base slot I'll be pissed (thankfully he's behind in the voting). His season so far has been average. I personally think he's injured, but I'm no fan of past success being voted in as a starter over current success. Pujols can be on the bench. Please.


TODD:
Well that was certainly misguided criticism. You asked for three mistakes and I gave you three mistakes that are SURE to happen. Furthermore, your math is all wrong! The fans are definitely not going 14 for 17 here.

A number of All-Star positions are no-brainers that even America cannot mess up. AL first and third base are great examples. The fans should not get credit for voting Miguel Cabrera as the starting third baseman. That's ludicrous.

Let's be generous and throw in all the starting spots where no player clearly deserves the vote, we're left with only 11 chances for the vote to go wrong. The fans will screw up three of these and messing up on those drops our grade to a C or C-. And that's being generous! I even gave the fans NL first base, where Goldschmidt or Votto WILL be starting. Suddenly, things aren't looking so good, am I right?

As for the men themselves, this NL outfield is going to be a disaster...especially if YOU vote the allowable 25 times. Yasiel Puig, really? He only has 114 more Major League at-bats than I do and I am not much of a prospect at this point.

Do you realize how good someone, ANYONE, can look in 114 at-bats? It's barely a sixth of the season; it's one month. It's going against San Diego and Philadelphia for 40% of those at-bats, which Puig has done. Poor Carlos Gomez. The guy is absolutely raking and he's not going to make the top three. Not because of Puig though and I am definitely with you on Justin Upton. He has been as bad this past month as Puig has been good. They're looking at each other from opposite ends of the spectrum at this point. Rewarding Upton with the All-star start would be a joke.

And by the way, don't worry about Pujols. He won't even make the roster, let alone start.


DAN:
Carlos Gomez is clinging to the twelve spot, but there's always a chance the NL manager will add him to the All-star roster. And unfortunately Justin Upton is holding strong to the three spot, just ahead of Bryce Harper and Matt Holliday. He's been playing so poorly I wouldn't be surprised if he lands on the DL this week, so there's hope for the third Carlos yet!

One last thought on Puig, sure he's only had 114 at-bats, but there is no player I'd rather watch in the All-star game. Hopefully he isn't injured after running into the wall this week, but you want excitement? Get Puig on the NL roster and Brett Gardner on the AL roster and let the speedsters steal America's attention for a night. I want fireworks baby!

[If you missed Part one - Yes, please stuff my Ballot Box]

MLB All-Stars: Yes, please stuff my Ballot Box - Part one

MLB All-Stars: Yes, please stuff my Ballot Box - Part one
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (7-1-13)



TODD:
MLB All-Star ballots are out. Voting is in its final days and we will know the starters on Saturday.

Never mind that having fans vote for these things is bound to generate problems. We'll find out those horrible, horrible mistakes in a few days. But this year's ballot has some real, head-scratchingly tough decisions. There are some easy ones too, like AL first base, AL third base or NL catcher. But then we get into positions like NL shortstop where three guys have legit claims to the starting spot; and AL shortstop where probably no one deserves to even make the All-Star team, let alone start.

Which begs the question, is getting the starting nod really the fair way to reward the best season a player is having? Not only is playing the ninth inning more important to the game itself than playing the first inning. But should we just elect the nine best players from each league, regardless of position, and have the managers fill out the rest of the lineup in reverse?

Maybe it's just me but I get a little queasy electing someone to an all-star game who doesn't deserve it. Let the managers do that dirty work later on. Let me pick the guys who are having the very best seasons, regardless of team, regardless of position, regardless of past success: just based on the numbers. That's the way it should be.

The fans are probably going to do something stupid anyways, like vote Derek Jeter as AL starting shortstop. So allow me the satisfaction of putting both Everth Cabrera AND Jean Segura on the NL squad, when neither one is probably going to win out over Troy Tulowitzki when the votes are counted.

By the way, as someone with a heart and loyalties and such, do you vote Yankees ahead of more deserving players on your ballot? Brett Gardner comes to mind here. He's had a pretty solid first half. He probably doesn't deserve to make the starting outfield, but it wouldn't be egregious. Are you one to just blindly vote him in because he wears the pinstripes?

In the same vein, will you put someone slightly less deserving in as starting AL DH just so you don't have to vote for David Ortiz?


DAN:
The MLB All Star balloting is a never ending conversation, riddled with controversy. I love it! For the players, getting the starting nod has to mean a lot for the ego. Not only are you having a great season, but its so great that fans nationally recognize your success. Either that, or you've been so great in the past that you're still recognized as one of the best. Win, win for the players, especially the ones with substantial careers. But since the All Star game is for the fans and takes place mid season, its not exactly rewarding anyone. The best half seasons will get acknowledged, if not by the fans, then by the managers, but beyond that its more of a party. The players in the game don't care which inning they participate in. The game barely matters in the first place. Yes, yes, home field advantage for the World Series. Like that means a lick to the players in July. They are only beginning to think playoffs, with the World Series still a struggling goal.

Being an undeserved All Star is like a badge of honor. You must have done something right at some point in time. And I LOVE that someone from each team has to make it. Its an event for the fans and having every club represented ensures this. Each team certainly has its own All Star, even if they are not one of the top nine in the league. Its great fun to vote for your team's guys and I have little issue with the current system. Again, this is an exhibition game basically.

I can smell the meat of your distress, you want the best of the best in the game. A true showcase of strength. How's that working out for the NFL? They chorale the best together with a full season's worth of stats and no gives a crap. The NBA and NHL go mid season with little drama. But the MLB All Star game gets the spotlight, the mid summer classic. Like all things baseball, its glorified to no end. I won't vote Derek Jeter into the game this year, but his place on last year's squad was totally warranted by the end of the season. He had a great year and as a future hall of famer, I had no issue with him making the team.

I love your final question and for me its a grey area. All things being equal, I pick the Yankee every time. Being slightly less deserving is a close call and I'd probably lean pro Yankee in that case as well. I don't got anti Red Sox. Hating the Yankees is Boston's thing and it doesn't go in reverse for me. But I'd definitely start a Yankee if its even a close comparison. Otherwise no, get the All Star in the game. I don't like stuffing the ballot box.

Prediction time! What three things will you hate about the final All Star lineups?


TODD:
Predicting the stupidity of others is a tall task. Also, it is hard to know which fan bases will come out in droves to irrationally support one of their players who is either (a) having a breakout season but still isn't on that all-star level or (b) is the best player for a team making surprising waves but, again, isn't worthy of an all-star appearance. That being said, I do have some guesses as to where America will infuriate me most.

It won't be AL First Base. Chris Davis is a lock there. He is dominating the position and plays for a popular team. Done and done.

It won't be AL Second Base since no one has broken away as the most deserving candidate. I could see Robinson Cano, Dustin Pedroia or Ian Kinsler winning. Jason Kipnis may be having the best year, but his deliriously atrocious beginning to the season may have put him out of the minds of anyone who doesn't live in Cleveland. Jose Altuve might also make it, if nothing else then as the resident Astro.

AL Shortstop is a similar situation in that no one deserves it. JJ Hardy has been okay. A certain result may surprise me, but if it's someone other than Hardy I wouldn't be upset by any means.

Third Base for the American League will have the same result as first base. Miguel Cabrera will win it in a landslide. Situation (a) described above would have been possible for Orioles fans and Manny Machado, but not with the season Miggy Cabrera is having. He's too good.

For Catcher, I think Joe Mauer deserves the start. He may get overlooked though because of consistency. The Astros' Jason Castro has been solid, as have a few other guys. Nothing would upset me here, even if Mauer gets slighted.

Now AL Outfield is where controversy has room to develop and it most certainly will. There are two locks for the three spots: guys who play in big cities and are having deserving years. Those two are Mike Trout from the Angels and Adam Jones of the O's. The last spot should go to Alex Rios but I'm afraid it won't. The potential spot stealers all play in the AL East and can wrack up huge vote numbers. Jacoby Ellsbury, Nate McLouth, Brett Gardner, Nick Markakis and Jose Bautista are all having years that put them on the precipice of making the All-Star game, but none deserve it. The worry here is that they all could easily tally more votes than Rios, who is having the best overall season. Even as a Yankees fan, I wouldn't be the least upset if Ellsbury stole Rios' spot. Either of those Orioles players starting in the All-Star game would be infuriating.

That wraps up the American League because DH is a non-issue. David Ortiz deserves to get the start and he will. As for the NL... [read Part two].

[Part two - Predictions sure to hate]