Sports Injuries: When stars fall - Part one

Sports Injuries: When stars fall - Part one
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (11-4-13)



TODD:
The Red Sox made an interesting improvement this season, going from last in their division to first and a World Series title. Remarkable? Not really. Last year's team shouldn't have been that bad; it really just came down to injuries. Injuries!

Jonah Keri did a great job of detailing this recently in a piece for Grantland. Here is his table that pushed the point home:

Player:                                                                             Games Played        WAR

Jacoby Ellsbury (2012)	74	1.4
Jacoby Ellsbury (2013)	134	5.8
David Ortiz (2012)	90	2.9
David Ortiz (2013)	137	3.8
Dustin Pedroia (2012)	141	4.4
Dustin Pedroia (2013)	160	5.4
John Lackey (2012)	0	0.0
John Lackey (2013)	29	3.2

The column on the left is Games Played and the column on the right is Wins Above Replacement (WAR). As you can see, from just four players, the Sox gained roughly 10 wins from one season to the next. This factors in none of the moves they made or improvements in other players, call-ups, whatever. A full 10 wins came from just these four guys staying healthy.

It is a rather remarkable discovery in my opinion. But what it really does is make the Red Sox story even less interesting. They were bad in 2012 because their best guys all got hurt. They were great in 2013 because their best guys all stayed healthy. As Yankee fans, we can relate.

This question goes way beyond baseball or the Red Sox. Are injuries ruining the fun of professional sports? It does not seem that concussions are lessening in the NFL; just last year, the NBA was demolished by major injuries to major stars. And we can see here what a small number of injuries in baseball can do to a contender. This has probably always been the case, but it seems much more stark these days.


DAN:
I'm deeply fascinated by the idea that a team could turn itself around so dramatically from one season to the next, simply by staying healthy. But in the grand fasion of debate, I disagree with your argument. The Red Sox may have gained ten wins this season, but they had a new manager, a new bullpen and most importantly, a killer new closer. It wasn't just the injuries. But ten wins is ten wins and as more QBs drop like flies each week in the NFL, this is a great topic to rip to shreds.

I'd be nice if life was as simple as you paint it. But I actually think there are far fewer sports injuries now than in the past. Medicine is better, training is better and players know how to care for themselves a lot better. What's caused us to be so damn aware of every little thing is three fold. First, if there are less injuries then we will know a lot more about the ones that do exist. Second, every little bump and bruise is taken way more seriously with the million dollar contracts these men hold. And third, fantasy sports makes us care a heck of a lot about the health of our star players. Now that I laid that out there, the real issue is how a single injury to your team's star can actually ruin a season.

No one really notices if your team's star stays healthy. Tom Brady is playing, dominating, and all is well in the world. But the one year he got knocked out, well damn did we take notice. The team still did well, but all the what ifs start creeping into play. This year in the NFL I can rattle off at least four or five teams that lost their QB and are worse for it. I can also name at least one, my beloved NY Jets, who are better off in the long run because they lost a QB. Sorry Mark, but better to move on now with a season of hope, then later with a season like Jacksonville is having. How are they actually that bad? I don't get it. Its like the players are afraid of crossing the end zone, much like a child who doesn't want to step on the cracks in the sidewalk.

So what are we really talking about here? Its not just injuries, but its knee and shoulder injuries. Nothing else seems to matter much. The NFL is so worried about protecting the head. Its definitely important, don't get me wrong. But this has to be evidence towards them actually caring about player safety, right? Because protecting the knees and shoulders goes much farther towards not having a star out for the season. In Sam Bradford's case, he just shouldn't have skipped out of bounds.... too soon?


TODD:
I agree with your three basic premises. We do know more about every injury because of coverage and the fantasy sports element for sure. And I think your second point was the most important. We hear about EVERYTHING; perhaps 60% of these same level injuries did not even make news 15 years ago. That is absolutely plausible and may even be a higher percentage.

The star injuries is what seems most alarming though. The 2012-2013 NBA season was a whirlwind of All-Stars going down for long stretches; Russell Westbrook, Derrick Rose, Kevin Love, Rajon Rondo, etc. And already in the NFL season, just halfway through mind you, here is an incomplete list of impactful guys out:

Julio Jones, Dennis Pitta, EJ Manuel, Jay Cutler, Lance Briggs, Leon Hall, Geno Atkins, Brian Hoyer, Champ Bailey, Randall Cobb, Clay Matthews, Brian Cushing, Reggie Wayne, Ahmad Bradshaw, Jerod Mayo, Vince Wilfork, Malcom Floyd, Sidney Rice, Percy Harvin, Michael Crabtree, Sam Bradford, Carl Nicks.

Not only is that list just the most famous names, it doesn't even include guys who've missed over a month and are now back, like Jake Locker, or played some and have been periodically out, like Roddy White or Mike Vick. All those guys are already out or on IR officially. And this is week 9.

It can't just be a coincidence, can it? Or just simple mathematics of playing time? I realize the better players will usually play more minutes and thus have a higher likelihood of getting hurt, but to have such a rash of severe injuries to important players seems so fluky it must mean something. I just don't know what that 'something' is.

What is definitely not a coincidence is certain teams, like the Kansas City Chiefs, have remained rather healthy thus far, leading to their unexpected success. I believe if the numbers were plotted, the amount of surprise teams has more to do with injuries, or lack thereof, than people realize. If you want to have a jump on a surprise playoff pick for next baseball season, just scour through the data and see which team lost the most games from their top level talent. That would have pointed us towards a Boston comeback this season for sure.

[Part two - NFL Upside down & Changing Expectations]

MLB Fall Classic: Average event in a Golden package - Part one

MLB Fall Classic: Average event in a Golden package - Part one
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (10-21-13)



TODD:
Game One of the 2013 MLB World Series is Wednesday night. The Boston Red Sox will be facing the St. Louis Cardinals. Woo? Not quite a surprise match-up this season; no one really came out of nowhere. Even both LCS match-ups were between powerful franchises. Unless you count the Red Sox going from worst to first as surprising, this year's playoffs was pretty bland. And even Boston's uprising was semi-faulty. They shouldn't have been that bad last year. They had the same roster but with some of the Dodgers' players. And look how far LA got with Adrian Gonzalez being arguably their best hitter all year.

We all know MLB struggles for TV ratings. Is it better that they've gotten a World Series between two country-wide teams? Everyone says they love the underdog stories of the Rays and Athletics and Pirates but then the public doesn't show up to watch these teams when it counts. Baseball has, even without a salary cap, one of the most parity-filled sports in this country. The Red Sox going from worst to first in the regular season isn't even a story because it has happened multiple times before. Parity is not an issue here as far as fair and balanced play. But is parity an issue for league popularity?

The NBA gets ratings when the Lakers, Celtics, Heat, etc. are playing for a title. Luckily for them, this happens nearly every season. You know when the last time neither the Lakers, Celtics or LeBron were in the NBA Finals? It hasn't happened since 2006. And if you throw the Spurs in this group, 2006 doubles as the only NBA Finals since Jordan's Bulls that didn't have one of those teams.

Where are these teams for MLB? Instead of "boring" match-ups between the same teams every year, baseball gets new blood in the World Series nearly every season. And yet this ends up badly for their viewership.

What can be done to save the Fall Classic?


DAN:
I'm not quite sure how it happened, but baseball became a sport where it is harder and harder to watch any old team compete for a championship. The NFL has parity, loves parity, and as a fan I'll watch most of the playoff games and certainly the Super Bowl, no matter who is playing. The NBA needs its powerhouses, has them, and I'll watch the finals when the powerhouses are in it. They usually are. MLB is different. It has parity, a lot of it, but I do NOT enjoy watching random teams play for a title. It was not fun for anyone outside of San Francisco to see the Giants win it all last season. MLB also has powerhouses, teams that are good year after year. But I did NOT enjoy watching them compete in the League Championship Series' this season. Its hard to watch and enjoy the Red Sox, as a Yankee fan, but the NLCS between the Dodgers and Cardinals should have been awesome. On paper it reads like two great franchises battling for a shot at the World Series, but you're spot on with your MLB analysis. The Fall Classic is broken and the Red Sox vs. Cardinals is lacking cache that would surely be there in both the NFL and NBA.

I actually think parity has hurt the popularity of MLB. I love watching my Yankees and will watch them in every playoff game if possible. But outside of my home team, I don't need to watch the games. Checking the scores is just as much fun. The games are long, so why not tune in for an hour? Well there's no guarantee anything at all will happen during those three innings. Watch one quarter of an NFL game or an NBA game and you're practically guaranteed scoring. Baseball doesn't work that way, so its needs matchups to make it exciting. A great hitter vs. a great pitcher. But outside of the Dodgers lineup, there's only a few hitters that make me take notice. The Red Sox have one in David Ortiz. The Tigers have one in Miguel Cabrera, but they're now out. The Cardinals don't have anyone who quite reaches this level. Where does this leave us? With a Fall Classic that's sorely lacking.

I like the NBA Finals because one of the teams you mentioned, or more importantly one of the Super Stars of the league, has been playing for the title nearly every season in the last decade. I love the Super Bowl because its always exciting and football never lacks for story lines. But I'm at a loss for the World Series. They usually get fresh blood in the Fall Classic, which is ultimately great for regular season baseball but kills October excitement once your team is out of the running. This year is different, or at least it should be with two classic franchises holding strong in October.

The Red Sox move from worst to first should be a huge story. I actually think its pretty amazing. They stunk last season, basically ran out the same roster with a new manager this year and are now the best of the American League. Sure, sure, they weren't bad in 2011. But they STUNK last year in 2012. I actually picked them to follow things up with a bleak 2013, barely squeaking into the playoffs. So I don't get why this isn't a bigger story. Probably because its the Red Sox, they've been great for a decade more or less and ho hum.

Ultimately it comes down to Star Power. Baseball doesn't have enough. Its lacking, missing, non existent for me outside of David Ortiz who doesn't even play in the field. Teams need stars to draw fans outside their home market. MLB has a marketing problem. We need more KIA car commercials with baseball players. Come on!

[Part two - Damn those Old folks & Ad men]

NHL Playoff Hockey: Now with Real Value - Part one

NHL Playoff Hockey: Now with Real Value - Part one
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (5-27-13)



TODD:
Admittedly, neither of us are the biggest hockey fans. I play fantasy hockey and do wondrously well for some reason. But that is about the extent of my hockey fandom. Nevertheless, the NHL Playoffs are spectacular. Everyone always says this, but that's mainly because it's true. I caught that Bruins-Maple Leafs game seven from round one...there are no words to properly describe the game. Wow!

Up three goals mid-way through the final period of game seven...still up two with two minutes remaining...Boston pulls their goalie and scores once...after the ensuing face-off, Boston pulls their goalie again and scores again within 30 seconds. After that, we knew Toronto had absolutely no shot at winning in overtime.

There have been other great games and other great series as well. So many contests go to overtime it's uncanny. So what is hockey doing to make the playoffs so much better than the regular season? Or, perhaps more importantly, what is hockey doing wrong during the regular season that makes casual observers not care a lick until playoff time? I have my theories.


DAN:
The NHL playoffs make for pretty amazing drama. Unlike the NHL regular season which is significantly less interesting that college hockey, the NHL playoffs nearly top the collegiate hockey experience. I'm a Boston University alumni, so I know great college hockey. What made hockey great at BU was two fold. An enthusiastic and energized fan base that went balls crazy at every game and rivalry. We hate Boston College, would chant "BC sucks" at every game regardless of the opponent, and it was awesome. Most college sports have these things going for it, but with college hockey you get extra crazy fans in a small space. Ice rinks are often intimate, with the fans smushed against the glass at ice level.

Playoff hockey in the NHL is amazing for a different reason, however. Hockey is a tough sport and hard on a player's body. Its a close second to football for brutality and bodily injury. Yet the NFL season is sixteen games and the NHL season is much, much, much longer. If I was a professional hockey player I think I might just play at 85 to 90% some nights. Not always intentionally, but always knowing I have to save my best stuff for the playoffs. I have to be healthy, I have to have energy left in the tank. I can't go balls out on a random Tuesday unless it has playoff implications. So now its the actual playoffs. Woo! I'm kicking things into high gear, giving 120% every night because now I'm playing for a chance to win the Stanley Cup, the coolest, most awesome trophy in sports. If my team wins this trophy, I personally get to carry it around for a week and do whatever my sick and dirty mind desires with it.

How can you top this? You can't and every hockey player is doubling their efforts in the playoffs. Add to that the insanity of hockey fans and their increased enthusiasm at a playoff game, and you have an incredible game and experience night in and night out throughout the playoffs. I don't think you can hope to get this level of play into the regular season. Overtime during a regular season game is a chore. No one wants that as a player. But in the playoffs? Bring it baby, bring it!


TODD:
I think you touched on the answer a bit. Obviously the crowd is more into playoff games because of the stakes. A better crowd means a more exciting contest, almost regardless of how the players are feeling. But the players are also giving a tad more in these games. How can you possibly give 100% effort on a Wednesday night in mid-January and expect to have anything left come June? It's not feasible.

But crowds wax and wane; players still try very hard during the regular season because this is their passion and they are paid professionals. The real difference between playoff hockey and regular season hockey has nothing to do with either group. The reason regular season hockey is not entertaining is because the system is designed against it's excitement. Even if said player DOES decide to give 100% effort on that Wednesdaynight in mid-January, it doesn't effect the standings to a larger degree. With the NHL now rewarding a point for overtime losses, each individual regular season game's effect on the end is so minuscule it is comical.

[Part two - Nonstop Action, Crazy Fun]

"Come on, Seriously?" - What ha... happened? (May - Part Two)

"Come on, Seriously?" - What ha... happened? (May - Part Two)
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (5-17-13)

[Part One - "Not in my House"]



We scour the internet for a crazy sports photo and someone must try to explain it. Seesaw Sports asks what ha... happened? Monday: Opening statement. Friday: Rebuttal.

Real photos. Real results. But what in the heck happened?



TODD:
I present to you the following:

Photo: Oh no. That's not what I think it is, is it?

Title: "Come on, seriously?"

Description: This is low, even for this exercise.

W..Wh..WHY? Why did this happen!?


DAN:
The bad memories and horrendous nature of the event seem to have left you almost speechless. Arguably the best (or second best) pitcher in the history of the Boston Red Sox organization brutally assaults a historic member of our beloved New York Yankees, Don Zimmer, and all you can say is why. Zimmer was a staple of the Yankees dynasty from 1996 to 2003 and deserved better than this. But why this happened is simple.

Did you know, Don Zimmer was the manager of the Boston Red Sox from 1976 to 1980? He was manager for the infamous "Boston Massacre" which saw the Yankees eviscerate a fourteen game lead in the division to ultimately win the crown from the Red Sox on Bucky Dent's famous home run! Jump forward to 2003, his final year in the Bronx, when Pedro Martinez decided to exact revenge. The former Red Sox manager had jumped ship to join the arch rivals and now the franchise's premier pitcher had an opportunity to taste the sweet, sweet juice of bloody revenge.

Needless to say, this was not a fair fight and Zimmer never recovered. His embarrassment was so extraordinary that he was forced to leave the team and join the Tamba Bay Rays. The Rays! Pedro did what every thirty to fifty year old American wishes they could do, embarrass the elderly. He death gripped an old man by his shiny bald head and hurled him mercilessly to the dirt. Come on, seriously!

The Red Sox needed blood, needed revenge for the "Boston Massacre" all those years ago and Pedro Martinez got it. He struck quick, struck hard and the New York Yankees would never be the same.

That's what happened.

[If you missed Part One - "Not in my House"]

MLB Opening Day Mash up now w/ Fantasy! - Part Two

MLB Opening Day Mash up now w/ Fantasy! - Part Two
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (4-5-13)

[Part One of the MLB Mash up]

TODD:

I'm not on board with your Red Sox and Mets hate. Obviously I don't want either team to succeed, but I am not sure they will both be terrible. The Red Sox have loads of talent still. Their lineup is actually looking better than what the Yankees are going to be forced to trot out. And the Mets have some great, young pitching. They may very well finish third in that division although that is more of a shot at the Phillies and Marlins than confidence in the Metropolitans.

In regards to money buying wins, I think everyone agrees that is not the case. The past success of the Twins and Athletics as well as the current run of the Rays proved that. However, money helps. It is easier to overcome roster mistakes. That is a given. Although if a money-laden team tries to reverse course and be thrifty, it makes it even harder to succeed since they already paid for so many terrible contracts before that decision was made!!...not thinking of any team in particular, just a general idea for the landscape of the sport; that's all.

Speaking of spending money, we recently had our fantasy baseball auction draft and a funny thing occurred. People are always nervous to spend too much right away in these things; I get that. However, what has happened more and more each subsequent season is that people have way too much money left over in later rounds. Solid players start to get bid up because owners were targeting them as cheaper options to a star player. Late round values don't become values at all as the money floods the market. The same thing happens in real life sports with a salary cap. NBA or NFL teams seem to offer more money for lesser players if they have the cap room. As odd as it sounds, has baseball, with its unlimited salaries and ultimate capitalism, become the smartest with its money?

Sure everyone hates Marlins' owner Jeffrey Loria because he dismantled his entire team. But doesn't that seem smarter than overpaying for players who won't make a big enough difference?

DAN:

Hate is a strong word. Neither the Red Sox or Mets will be playoff contenders this season, but I'm not saying they'll bottom out or anything. Its just exciting to see who can be worse! The Mets are taking a head start with the growing length of their Disabled List to start the year. And yes I know, the Yankees list of disabled players (how funny does that read) is much longer, but we aren't talking about the 27 time world champions right now.

I think you may be on to something big hear, baseball has become much smarter with its money out of necessity. Since anyone can spend whatever they want on any player, over time everyone is either going to get smart or get burned. Now the biggest spenders of the last decade, the Yankees and Red Sox, both got burned and had some smart signings. But overall, the big money deals have burned both teams. The league overall, leaving out the Dodgers and Angels, have definitely learned from history. My feeling is that the Angels have been more or less smart with the money, but the Dodgers are acting like its 2003 and the A-rod deal hasn't happened yet. As a resident of Los Angeles, I hope they get lucky.

I want to touch on the Marlins for a moment before commenting on the wacky hijinks that ensued during our Fantasy Baseball draft. Your idea that selling off all the high priced talent is smart if those players can't make a big enough difference misses one huge asterisk of a point. You can't cross the line. Its smart to trade or release players who are under performing their contracts. But in doing so, you need to then sign new guys to be competitive and get better. I haven't taken a look at the Marlins farm system of late, but chances are this team will suck in 2013. If you're a Marlins fan, opening day has arrived and you can already start looking toward 2014. That is just awful. The Marlins re-branded themselves last year and now trot out this mess. Come on man!

Now the good stuff, fantasy baseball. I actually found that people were overpaying for just about everyone from the very beginning. Then, when something juicy was happening in an NCAA basketball game, you could sneak in and win a guy at auction for his actual retail price. Otherwise, it was bid up, bid up. I loved and hated this. Personally, bidding up players that I don't want is the most fun thing in the world. I must have done this at least six times and never once did I win the guy. It was awesome! But overall, the prices for drafted players were up there and no one will be keeper material because of it. Did you see the prices for catchers? Its a freaking catcher! How can you pay over five bucks at auction for Jesus Montero of the Mariners? He's a two dollar player at best. And then the relief pitchers, well, what the hell was that about? Every year the entire crop of successful relievers from the season before is cut in half and one side sucks while the other manages to be average. Then there is a whole group of unknown guys who manage to be awesome. Why the spending spree? Insanity and it was great!

TODD:

I'm with you on the catcher front. I was perfectly happy waiting and waiting...and waiting for my starting catcher. I ended up nabbing Jonathan Lucroy for a few pennies. Okay, actually it was $4 because someone who already had a catcher bid him up to screw me.

But the relievers was an interesting development. I partook in this insanity of which I normally avoid. Never Pay For Saves: it is the epitome of fantasy baseball advice. Saves come into the league during the season at a higher rate than any other stat. So many closers get hurt/lose their job that paying for an elite closer is almost heresy. And yet I paid for saves...kind of.

When I became aware of the growing trend of the league (i.e. people were saving their money too much and the values later in the draft were going to be expensiveeeee), I realized I too would have too much money left over. If I knew this ahead of time, I would have bid more on the good players. Instead of bidding up replacement-level bats though, I decided to go ahead and pay for five starting closers who were below the elite level but have the job locked down for opening day. Our league allows for three RP slots and two P slots. To me, that means I can start five closers each and every day, so I paid for them. Will two, maybe three of these gentlemen lose their job before the end of June? Perhaps. Will I regret my decision? Almost certainly. Was there a better alternative after I got caught in the midst of the money save? Not that I can see. Should I stop asking myself questions and allow you to ask a few? I suppose.

DAN:

I did my best to spend early on the available big bats while grabbing some pitching along the way. I held off on the relievers because they are nearly impossible to predict. I think May is a good time to snatch up or trade for relievers. Too bad we can't put a hold on their stats until Memorial Day. I'm now going to take this opportunity to "Raise the Roof" for my boy Yu Darvish. I used a keeper on him for a measly $17 and he rewarded me by starting the season with a near Perfect Game, twenty six outs on fourteen strikeouts. No complete game, but I'm not greedy. Go Yu!

The trends really surprised me in our fantasy baseball draft for two reasons. The first is that offseason ratings for baseball players, especially pitchers, is notoriously a poor indication of the upcoming season's success. Last year's stats carry over for mainly the top 15% of guys, the cream of the crop, and a quarter of those are keepers (all numbers approximate). So why spend money on risky business? I guess that's why auctions are so much fun! Bidding up the copper while you snatch some gold for the same price is oh so much fun. Here's hoping you do regret your decision and someone else, ahem, me, finally dethrones you as champion and wins the league.

One final thought on the actual games being played by real life people, how many MLB players do you think are playing fantasy baseball? I know quite a few football players play fantasy football, but this is much easier to accomplish. Fantasy baseball is a completely different game on a whole new level and playing fantasy while competing would be maddening. You definitely can't have yourself on your team. Unlike football, each at bat is so mental and each pitch a grudge match already that adding on the pressure of stat padding for fantasy purposes would crush even the best players. Maybe that's what happened to Tim Lincecum. And could you even have teammates on your fantasy team? You want to win your team's game, but if Player X works a walk instead of getting a hit do you applaud him getting on base or be pissed for lowering your fantasy team's overall statistics? I don't see this ending well.

TODD:

I think zero MLB baseball players play fantasy baseball. That number again, just to be clear, was zero.

I bet a ton of guys play fantasy football though. As you brought up, it seems counterproductive for players to participate in fantasy games involving their own sport. It might also be against league policy. I am not sure where you heard that football players are playing fantasy football, but I find that really hard to believe, no matter the ease of the game. Especially if it is for money, how is that different than gambling on your sport? Pete Rose got banned from baseball for life for essentially owning himself on all his fantasy teams. He never bet against the Reds. But he still bet.

Fantasy sports is more of an outsiders' activity. If athletes play, they play it in sports other than their own, where they would be outsiders.  Now let the games begin!

[Part One of our MLB Mash up]

All out AL East 2013 Baseball Preview - Part Two

All out AL East 2013 Baseball Preview - Part Two
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (3-15-13)

[Part One - Fantasy picks & AL East]

DAN:

Umm, wow, where do I begin? You're right about one thing, one run games are a sure fire way to an inflated or deflated record in baseball. However, you are DEAD wrong on the Orioles. They didn't just win one run games last year, they won games period. But assessing the Orioles record in 2013 is not merely about assessing them as a team, but assessing the other competition in the AL East. The Orioles have a well balanced lineup, Matt Wieters anyone, manipulated by a tremendous manager in Buck Showalter. Their pitching staff was decimated by injury last season and still managed to be great. They'll have both Zach Britton and Jason Hammel back at full strength. Don't tell me they aren't still a force.

But as to the real reason they finish second this season, the rest of the division just isn't any better save for the Rays. The Rays are a better version of the Orioles. Otherwise, the Blue Jays will do okay but are attempting to play the Yankees' game. The Yankees, all be it older, will play it better. And the Red Sox, come on. How can they finish ahead of the Orioles? They barely fielded a team last year, and last I checked, have done next to nothing to improve over the winter.

You conveniently left out your division standings. Afraid to put it on paper?  Man up.

TODD:

Actually, I hate to pull the "facts" card out on you like this, but the Orioles whole playoff berth was on the back of winning one-run games and pretty much nothing else. They went 29-9 in one-run games. That is the best mark in baseball history since the turn of the century; the century in question being 1900!!

If they were simply above average in one-run games, say a .600 winning percentage, pretty damn solid, they would have finished with seven fewer wins and missed the playoffs by a healthy margin. Their entire fluky season was built on fluky wins and a fluky bullpen.

It is true they have some young pitching but no one in their rotation is anything more than a third starter. Who is Baltimore's ace, Wei-Yin Chen?? As for their lineup, they have a few good hitters, some young talents and a nice mix of power and speed...which probably means they have the fourth best lineup in the division. Come on, this is the AL East we're talking about!

You actually think they're better than the Red Sox? Boston still has Ellsbury and Pedroia and Ortiz. They added Victorino, Stephen Drew, and lots of power in Mike Napoli and Jonny Gomes. As long as the starting rotation isn't below replacement level, this team will finish multiple games ahead of Baltimore.

Speaking of, I'm not one to back away from a prediction that no one will remember anyway unless I remind them of it because I nailed it on the head. So here is how the AL East will shape up this season:

(1) Tampa Bay
(2) New York
(3) Toronto
(4) Boston
(5) Baltimore

DAN:

I love LOVE your faith in the Yankees to finish in the two spot and I obviously agree about Tampa Bay, but I never ever pick against the eye test. Baltimore passed the eye test last season with flying colors. Throw your history making stats out the window for a moment and watch them play. Now go watch Boston. No contest. Boston may have improved, and on paper they sound like a pretty formidable opponent, but the eye test doesn't lie. Baltimore is better and a lot better than you think.

You make my Baltimore pick seem like a shot in the dark, akin to picking the Mets to make the playoffs or something equally as absurd. Any truly surprising teams this season? Who will be this season's Orioles and who will be this season's Pirates? Both had monster first halves in 2012, but only the Orioles were able to hang on for the full 162.

The Pirates for 2013 will be the Cleveland Indians, strong from April until July, but ultimately on the outside looking in come September. They added some nice hitters to the lineup, but the team is just average. Our season's Orioles will be the Milwaukee Brewers. I know they were good a few seasons ago, but the team is very different now and will once again make a run into the wildcard.

TODD:

The Indians is a very nice choice for this year's Pirates. They have a lot of talent on offense and some upside pitchers. This team is probably more talented overall than the Pirates were a season ago. But playing in the American League should certainly help see a second half decline here. I like that pick or their divisional foe, the Kansas City Royals. KC has even more talent than Cleveland does. It is certainly within the realm of possibility that their young hitters get off to a hot start and their veteran pitching staff does the rest. Of course there is little upside to a rotation of Ervin Santana, Jeremy Guthrie, Bruce Chen and Wade Davis, even with James Shields as the default ace; hence the second half collapse.

I can't get on board with your Brewers pick though. Not because they have no shot at contending for a wildcard; but because this team is too good to qualify as the 2013-version Orioles. Forget about Ryan Braun (AKA the number one fantasy player in baseball), Aramis Ramirez or the bats. Just look at that pitching staff. Yovani Gallardo is an All-Star candidate. Plus, Mike Fiers and Marco Estrada are solid starters. Baltimore won on the backs of a bullpen, a wing, and a prayer. Milwaukee deserves better.  The real Orioles run of this season will be made by the San Diego Padres.

All of the Padres' pieces fit:
- They have an underrated lineup; Chase Headley had a breakout season last year; young bats like Yonder Alonso and Cameron Maybin are ready to make a leap; and they have lots of speed to create trouble for opponents.

- They have an awful starting rotation; their "ace" is Edinson Volquez. According to baseball-reference's WAR stat, he's had only one season in his career worth more than one win and that was back in 2008 as a member of the Reds. So, other than 2008, there hasn't been a single season where he was more than one win better than a scrap heap, replacement schlub. In other news, he walked 105 batters last season.

- They have what should be a fantastic bullpen; Huston Street is a stud closer. Alongside him, Luke Gregerson is one of the best setup men in baseball. With Joe Thatcher and Dale Thayer, San Diego's late-inning army should be hard to score upon.

Also throw in the fact that San Diego will probably be predicted to finish last or fourth in the NL West this year and the parallels are perfect. Watch out National League; your day of reckoning is upon us!

Go Yankees!

[Part One - Top Fantasy picks & the AL East]

Playoffs!? Lakers and Celtics - In or Out

Playoffs!? Lakers and Celtics - In or Out

by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (2-8-13)

[Part One from Monday]

TODD:

Treading in the middle of the league every year does nothing for you, so bottoming out seems logical for Boston. However, the only way this is accomplished is by dismantling the roster further, i.e. trading Paul Pierce. I'm sorry but he will not be retiring as a Celtic if Boston wants any chance at a top pick this summer.

If trading Pierce is the only way to actually, legitimately bottom out and give yourself a chance at a top five pick, do you do it? Do you want the Celtics to trade the beloved Pierce for a young player or a first round pick (or both)? Or, would you rather Boston finish eighth or ninth in the east? Pretend you're Danny Ainge for a second here and actually make a decision that has some weight to it. "Sucking so bad" doesn't just happen on its own; people must be sacrificed.

DAN:

Damn it, I'll put on my executive hat and pretend I'm Danny Ainge. Its so much more fun to be the fan and want the best of both worlds. As Ainge I most certainly trade Kevin Garnett or Paul Pierce. Both if I can. Its time to stock up on draft picks and raise the likely hood of ping pong balls before the season is a total loss and the team is stuck with the eighth seed in the east. Making the playoffs is probably the worst case scenario for the Celtics right now. Their old guys just get older with extra minutes, games, travel, etc. And we all know they aren't good enough to beat Miami.

The problem is, who would want either player? If I'm Ainge I blow the team up, but my only viable trade asset is now getting reconstructive knee surgery. His predicament is approaching NY Jets territory. Its not like Pierce or Garnett puts anyone over the top, except MAYBE the Knicks but they already have Jason Kidd. There is one fail safe here. General Manager David Kahn of the Minnesota Timberwolves. I rest my case.

It's funny how the exact opposite is true of the Los Angeles Lakers. They HAVE to make the playoffs at all costs and the worst possible situation for them is to miss out on that coveted eighth seed in the west. I see them making a very sloppy move at the trade deadline to upgrade in the hopes of 'salvaging' their season. Not that they can win anything either, but with the Clippers playing out of their minds the Lakers have to keep pace. Now you're GM Mitch Kupchak What do you do?

TODD:

Boston is infinitely more interesting here, but I'll be Kupchak in a minute. First though, I believe Kevin Garnett has a full no-trade clause, so moving him might prove difficult. There are certainly teams in the league who are one piece away and that piece is either a very good defensive and jump-shooting power forward or a solid, shot-creating, scoring small forward. Pierce and Garnett both have value left; it's just a matter of getting a young piece of value back to make it worth it to Boston. Watch as the phones start ringing.

As GM of the Lake Show, we have to make the playoffs, win at all costs. That may mean making a rather impulsive roster upheaval. However, the difference exists in June between these two teams. If the Lakers sneak in as the eighth seed in the west, they can win rounds in the playoffs. In most match-ups, they will have four of the best six players on the court. Assuming Nash and Howard and Gasol get healthy heading into the final weeks of the season, a Lakers squad come June would be a scary opponent to face. The problem is getting there.

If I am Mitch Kupchak, I trade Pau Gasol. I realize he is now injured, but that just makes letting him go even easier. They are not using him correctly anyways. He is a center and one of the best low-post scorers in the world. He eviscerated the American team in the Olympics playing for Spain. LA is not using him in that spot or allowing him to play to his strengths on offense. He is no 18-foot jump shooter and I am not sure why Lakers brass thinks he is.

If they could get an athletic power forward or some outside shooting for Pau, I think they do it. To make this even more likely, Gasol still has value to other teams in the league who realize he is a center playing as a stretch forward. He will be itching to start fresh, coming off his rehab on a new team. With the Lakers selling low, they should still be able to gain a worthy piece in return for the Spaniard. Whether it would be enough to overcome their dreadfully slow start remains to be seen.

DAN:

I agree that Pau is the Lakers best trade asset, but they would be CRAZY to trade him. With Pau now injured and Howard somewhat injured, they are in a tough spot. But in the games they've won over the last week its been Pau who led the team in scoring and rebounding. They need him whenever he returns. More important than this, I think its only 50/50 whether Dwight Howard signs with the team after the year. Pau is the better player, teammate and asset for the Lakers at this point. Unfortunately I think Dwight Howard is untradable. They are stuck with what they got.

I'm leaning towards the side of panic with the Lakers. My prediction, they seemingly figure things out but fail to make the playoffs. Cause meet effect. The team gets blown apart this summer.

[If you missed Part One from Monday]

Who dies first? Celtics or Lakers

Who dies first? Celtics or Lakers

by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (2-4-13)

TODD:
The NBA has been flipped on its head this season. We all thought the strike-shortened year of 2011-2012 would be weird but this is something completely different.

In a sport where the best (nearly) always climbs to the top and the lengthy playoff rounds (almost) always guarantee the best teams advance, we are witnessing something special this season. The two most successful franchises in NBA history, the Boston Celtics and the Los Angeles Lakers, are both floundering. Both are bordering on the lottery with Boston currently sitting one game over .500 and the Lakers four below the .500 mark.

To make matters worse, Rajon Rondo tore his ACL, making him out for the rest of the season. And, on the other side of the country, it seems as though LA is actually considering trading one of their All-Star centers. What should happen here?

Pick a team and go. Should things be blown up, do they bottom out to try to get the best lottery pick possible? Is it worth scrounging together replacements (in Rondo's case) to go for that 7th or 8th playoff spot? Is the NBA (ratings-wise) in big trouble if neither of these teams make the playoffs or would the triumphant return of playoffs in New York help cover this?


DAN:
Asking to pick between the Celtics and Lakers isn't really fair; there's only one sane selection. As for the big picture, the NBA would be in trouble ratings-wise if it were any other point in its history, but there are SO many superstars in the league now. The Celtics and Lakers grab casual fans for sure, but last year's playoffs introduced the country to the OKC Thunder and crowned Miami. Those are the teams to watch. Throw in the Knicks and the Clippers and we have the two largest basketball markets with two excellent teams. If the Celtics OR the Lakers miss the playoffs the NBA is fine, but if both don't make it then there will be a ratings hit to the first round only. Neither team is getting any farther.

Now for my pick, which is obviously the Celtics. I adopted them as my basketball team way back when, living in Boston during college. Moving to Los Angeles solidified my disdain for their arch rival, the Lakers. Sure its fun out here when the Lakers are winning, but its vastly more fun when the Clippers are winning and the Lakers are losing. I'm proud to say I root for the Clippers too, so boo Lakers and yay Celtics. Here in the real world though, the Celtics suck. They were a floundering team who barely managed to show up on a nightly basis unless it was a nationally televised game. And this was BEFORE Rondo got hurt.

The Celtics have been playing a game of politics for a year or so now. They didn't want to alienate their fans by trading the "Big Three" who won them a title and yet they needed somebody to go. Ray Allen left last off season and no rebuilding happened, mainly because both Garnett and Pierce are still on the team. With Rondo going down they can officially throw in the towel on the season. They may have wanted to shoot for the lottery before, but now they have a legit excuse to be a worse team without being accused of tanking. Don't replace Rondo. Here's my ideal scenario. Pierce and Garnett both retire after the season with the Celtics sucking so bad they get a ton of balls in the lottery. High draft picks abound and with Rondo rehabilitated to a new-look Celtics team, they come back with a fury next year.

This season was over a month ago for the Celtics. Now they can put a bow on it.


TODD:
One major flaw exists with your ideal scenario. Out of Charlotte, Washington, Cleveland, Orlando, Phoenix, New Orleans, Sacramento or Minnesota, who is Boston worse than even without Rondo? There is no possible way the Celtics end up with ping pong balls for anything higher than the ninth best chance at the top pick.

Hell, they might even stay in the playoffs without Rondo. With the return of Avery Bradley and the guard play of Jason Terry and Courtney Lee sure to improve with more minutes coming their way, the Celtics still may have the seventh best team in the eastern conference. This, of course, doesn't mean any playoff advancement is in their future and, as all NBA fans know, you want to be at the top or at the bottom. Treading in the middle of the league every year does nothing for you.

[Part Two]

 

The NY Yankees Black hole at Third

The NY Yankees Black hole at Third

by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (1-14-13)


DAN:
Alex Rodriguez is once again getting surgery and the Yankees are left with a hole in their team for at least the first third of the 2013 season. Some might say the hole was there whether he was healthy or not, but I'm not one of those haters.

How do the Yankees, our team, fix this? I really like Eduardo Nunez, but he was Jeter's backup and not a consistent enough hitter as of yet to be relied upon every day. Does he convert to a shortstop / third base hybrid? They signed Youkilis, but can we really rely on him at this point in his career? I don't know farm systems enough to propose a trade, but something needs to happen now!

TODD: 

So many directions to go here; I'll tackle each one like they were shot with a bullet... but something less dangerous and foreboding. This deserves tranquilizer points!

--> Alex Rodriguez is out for six months, give or take 65 days on either end. This creates a huge hole in the Yankees' lineup. I am with you up to this point. However, I am one of those "haters" of the belief that A-Rod is on his last legs. I feel like a mandatory benching for surgery is actually beneficial here. The Yankees will be able to sit him without the backlash and story surrounding. A man more skeptical than myself may even suggest Yankees brass "encouraged" A-Rod to get another surgery.

--> I too like Eduardo Nunez. He runs, puts the bat on the ball and adds some energy to a sluggish lineup. He is not a third baseman though. He struggled with the glove during his time at third last season, and had a very hard time sliding around the diamond defensively. I think his best use will be to DH when added speed is needed, spell Jeter at short and to play sparingly elsewhere. Unless the glove progresses, Nunez won't be effective as an everyday third baseman.

--> There was no hope at all in the free agent pool and we signed the top available corner infielder in Kevin Youkilis. Down the road, moving around a current Yankee to open up a different spot seems like a long shot. Could Cano move to third with his arm strength? Yeah, probably, but that does not seem like something Girardi or Brian Cashman would want to do.

--> The Yankees farm system is worse than it was a year ago. Many of the top pitching prospects had poor or injury-riddled seasons in 2012. The young catchers are not quite ready and things are shallow everywhere else. It also seems against corporate policy for the Yankees to ever make a trade FOR a young prospect, although being able to deal for a young 3B here would be rather intriguing.

--> What does that leave New York with? The answer is simple and discouraging. Kevin Youkilis is a stop gap player for at least six weeks as the season begins. If he is competent, he’ll remain until A-Rod's return. If he is gruesome, other options will be explored. Welcome to a world where Ryan Roberts is the starting third baseman of the New York Yankees!

DAN: 

I don't care for the 'options' you mentioned and who is this Ryan Roberts you speak of? I don't want to know! Back to players I know of and most notably A-Rod and the Youk. Your idea that the Yankees brass encouraged A-Rod to get surgery is intriguing and I'd even consider it if we had even one good option to fill in. Seeing as there's none, even with Youkilis, I respectfully disagree.

As for the Youk, I'm all for irony and poetic justice and that crap, but if Kevin Youkilis fills in for Alex Rodriguez and plays really well then I may just cry. We won’t want A-Rod back at all and Youkilis might actually replace Alex entirely. I enjoyed when Johnny Damon joined the Yankees. Loved it actually as a haha moment. But I don't like Youkilis. I actually dislike him. He is the quintessential image of the chicken and beer fiasco in my mind. And now he is a Yankee? Our guy! No way. Keep out! Do not enter. I'd rather field "insert name of random Marlins player here" than him. Unfortunately that isn’t happening. Give me a few weeks in April and I’m sure I’ll come around.

[Part Two]