Its not all good with the New York Yankees - money tree Part three
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (12-16-13)
[Part one - Arrivals and Departures]
[Part two - Numbers to the Moves]
TODD:
Its time to tackle the Brian McCann and Jacoby Ellsbury moves. Like I said on Friday, I like both players in a vacuum for sure. But does it make the most sense to draft/sign players for need or to always take the best player available?
DAN:
I'd say in general its better in the long run to draft the best player and build around him or her. Talent breeds more talent, attracts more talent and elevates others' abilities. That being said, the Yankees are already a fairly talented team. I know, they are getting old fast. But since we are talking free agency, this is the ONLY good time to fill a need over taking talent. Pay more to fill a hole in the lineup rather than crowd an already potent position with one more guy. Catcher might be the most valuable position, taking into account the need to develop a repertoir with the pitchers. Huge move for the Yankees filling that hole.
TODD:
Fine, a hole has been filled, but are we sure Brian McCann is the same hitter he used to be? He will turn thirty years old before next season begins. Last year saw him miss a number of games because of injury, but the season before was the beginning of the downturn. It seems likely that McCann's career crested in 2011. Hopefully these past two years of disappointment were just a case of the injury bug and the Yankees are receiving 2006-2011 McCann. Otherwise, this is not a very good signing. And even if he comes back a bit to his career norms, how much longer can this guy catch? People are already talking about transitioning him to first base and he hasn't even played a game on his new five year, $85 million contract.
If McCann plays everyday catcher for four of those five years, and bats anywhere near what he did for his peak years, this is a good signing. I don't believe both of those things will be true though. Even assuming the bat returns, if he plays first base, his normal production is not good enough. His great value at the plate stems from the fact that be plays the catcher position. His overall numbers aren't good enough to make up the difference in position. He's a 20 home run guy who rarely slugs .500 and has never walked more than 74 times in a season. That is an average to below average bat at first base.
DAN:
You got me, I love the McCann signing of him as a catcher. I do NOT want to see him at first base. Mark Teixeira is at first base, assuming he returns from injury. Moving McCann to first only re-opens the hole at catcher I was excited to see filled.
TODD:
Moving on. As for Jacoby Ellsbury, you mentioned one of the obvious positives in signing him: he's a better version of Brett Gardner who also makes Gardner expendable as a trade chip. This is important because Gardner may be the only trade chip on the Yankees roster right now!
The thing many people do not realize is that Ellsbury is also younger than Gardner (albeit very slightly). And he has amazing upside. Although he will probably never approach his 2011 season numbers again, Brett Gardner can never sniff that type of production. But even with another elite power season being unlikely, Ellsbury brings a ton of skills to the table. The stolen bases and runs scored are a given. He has always hovered in the high .270s to .290s in batting average as well, even if he falls short of .300.
What everyone got on the Ellsbury signing for was the size of the contract. Not only did it possibly increase the asking price for Cano, but it begged the question of whether an injury-plagued player like Jacoby Ellsbury be worth seven years, $153 million? The numbers say yes.
DAN:
Numbers please.
TODD:
Last year Ellsbury played in 134 games. He bats lead-off, so missing 28 games, he still managed to collect 577 at-bats. For some comparison, Robinson Cano played in 160 games last year and had 605 at-bats. It's not as much of a difference as people seem to believe. But playing in 134 games, Ellsbury was 5.8 wins above replacement (WAR) according to Baseball-Reference. This figure is not perfect, but it takes into account a player's hitting, as well as his base-running and fielding abilities. Missing roughly thirty games, Ellsbury was just about a six win player.
Not to get too number-crazy here but, according to FanGraphs data, with the way the market is moving and how much money teams are spending, the cost of one win above replacement is around $6 million for free-agency-eligible players. That means, on the open market, a two win player could fetch $12 million, and a six win player like Ellsbury should cost around $36 million per year. This is just speaking of players added on the market, not in regards to rookies or players not eligible for arbitration. So, obviously these figures are not a perfect translation of the league. Mike Trout is the best player in the world and still makes under a million dollars because he hasn't hit free agency yet. However, open market wins cost what they cost. It is not an opinion on the value of said player. It is strictly the math of what wins cost to purchase.
DAN:
So you're saying the Yankees got themselves a deal? That also means Mike Trout should fetch $30 million a year easily when he does hit free agency. No wonder Cano pushed for the big bucks.
TODD:
Exactly. With the increased television revenue being delivered to each franchise in the coming years, that figure will probably increase. A large part of the defense of Robinson Cano's contract was that Seattle essentially bought him with the National TV deal money they will get, which is $25 million per season. So heading back to the Yankees, even if Ellsbury declines as a player in the coming seasons, which he is sure to do, his contract will not be unbearably high. In fact, if he continues with seasons like last year, he will be a bargain while still just hitting nine home runs. Ellsbury "only" needs to settle in as a 3.5 win player to legitimize the contract, a figure he has dwarfed two of the past three seasons.
[Part one - Arrivals and Departures]
[Part two - Numbers to the Moves]
