Masahiro Tanaka and Fantasy Baseball 2014 - part two

Masahiro Tanaka and Fantasy Baseball 2014 - part two

by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (2-7-14)

[Part one - Mike freaking Trout]

[Starting next week Seesaw Sports will be moving to Buzzchomp - You'll find posts both here and there for a week or two as we transition our readers. Thanks!]



TODD:
There is certainly no arguing that Andrew McCutchen or Freddie Freeman feel like safer picks than elite starters from last year like Scherzer and Sanchez. That is always a given; batters are safer. However, the point of the theory was that if you were able to grab the top starting pitchers, you'd be okay if one or two missed because your lineup would still be in fine shape. The overall dominance of Mike Trout across all scoring categories would allow for "fill-in" batters later on.

It would be a less comfortable way of drafting. There is no doubt about that. I guess it would be hard to pull the trigger on the likes of Felix Hernandez and Cliff Lee and Stephen Strasburg when so many other players seem much safer and reliable in those early rounds.

Speaking of questionable pitchers, where are you taking Masahiro Tanaka this season in fantasy? He will not technically be the New York Yankees' ace, but he will be in spirit. Or they at least need him to be. So is he an ace fantasy pitcher? He doesn't appear to be the strikeout maven that Yu Darvish is. And the possibility exists that he will bomb completely in the major leagues. So where would you take him and at what point is he too rich for your blood and you know he won't be appearing on any of your fantasy teams?


DAN:
I'm all for drafting uncomfortably, but pinning down a draft strategy that requires you to practically dislike your first four or five picks because of uncertainty alone feels wrong. I forced myself last season to not draft any pitching early. The jury is out on whether it was a successful strategy or not, but it was really hard. Doing the opposite feels nearly impossible, but with a player like Mike freaking Trout, its not completely in left field. (Did you enjoy my corny baseball pun? Did asking you about it and pointing it out completely ruin the joke? Was it already ruined from the start?)

I love that you brought up Mr. Tanaka. The newest addition to the Yankees' starting rotation is a much safer pick in my opinion than Yu Darvish was. The main reason here, when Darvish came up the Rangers were good, but not a team that won in spite of its pitching. The Yankees have been a team, for the last few seasons, that wins games in spite of its pitching. Last year was a bit more balanced, but overall their lineup has compensated for off nights by the pitching staff. Hence the consistent high win totals. So even if he is an average pitcher, a la Ivan Nova, he will get victories and do well in several statistical categories.

For some perspective, in an auction league I paid $17 for Yu Darvish in his rookie season. I thought he would be damn good and was right on the money. I wasn't going to pay higher than $22 for him, he was unproven, but he definitely warranted a solid bid with all his upside. So where does that leave Masahiro Tanaka? He has the potential to be a great number two for the Yankees and an ace on many other teams. I don't see him surpassing CC Sabathia or even Pineda's ceiling with New York, but that only improves his fantasy value. If he's the number two or three pitcher, he'll be facing other team's two and three guys. That's great news for your fantasy wins total. I think I've finally gotten around to a real answer for your question.

In a snake draft (obligatory Booo from a big fan of auctions) I would take Tanaka anywhere in round seven and below. He is not a top five pick, but snatching him in the seventh round before anyone else does seems warranted. I love the consistency and upside of Japanese pitchers and its a risk well worth taking. In an auction draft (obligatory cheers) I'd pay up to $15 bucks for him, maybe a little higher. I don't love him like I did Yu Darvish, but he is a Yankee. The mid level pitchers go in the twenty dollar range, so reaching for a rookie at fifteen bucks seems solid to me. I'd be shocked if I had to pay that much, but he's a big name and they come at a price.


TODD:
Chasing wins in fantasy baseball is a flawed and dangerous tactic. There is little correlation between a team a pitcher plays for and his ability to grab a win. There is also an even lower connection between a pitcher being great and his ability to be elite in the wins category. There is just too much out of his control.

The stat that is easily predictable is strikeouts. And with Tanaka, his strikeout potential seems to be considerably lower than Darvish. With that said, I believe your estimate is still low!

Being a big-time news story, playing for the Yankees and all the rest, Tanaka is incredibly hyped up. Although he is coming over as a worse prospect than Darvish was according to scouts, he may be a bigger deal. I can see him going earlier in snake drafts than you mentioned and for more dough in auctions. Of course, I'm with you. I'll stay away from Tanaka in all leagues unless he becomes a bargain...which won't happen. I would much rather get my hands on a known commodity at that price and take a chance on someone cheaper later in the draft.

[If you missed Part one - Mike freaking Trout]

Its not all good with the New York Yankees - money tree Part three

Its not all good with the New York Yankees - money tree Part three
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (12-16-13)

[Part one - Arrivals and Departures]
[Part two - Numbers to the Moves]



TODD:
Its time to tackle the Brian McCann and Jacoby Ellsbury moves. Like I said on Friday, I like both players in a vacuum for sure. But does it make the most sense to draft/sign players for need or to always take the best player available?


DAN:
I'd say in general its better in the long run to draft the best player and build around him or her. Talent breeds more talent, attracts more talent and elevates others' abilities. That being said, the Yankees are already a fairly talented team. I know, they are getting old fast. But since we are talking free agency, this is the ONLY good time to fill a need over taking talent. Pay more to fill a hole in the lineup rather than crowd an already potent position with one more guy. Catcher might be the most valuable position, taking into account the need to develop a repertoir with the pitchers. Huge move for the Yankees filling that hole.


TODD:
Fine, a hole has been filled, but are we sure Brian McCann is the same hitter he used to be? He will turn thirty years old before next season begins. Last year saw him miss a number of games because of injury, but the season before was the beginning of the downturn. It seems likely that McCann's career crested in 2011. Hopefully these past two years of disappointment were just a case of the injury bug and the Yankees are receiving 2006-2011 McCann. Otherwise, this is not a very good signing. And even if he comes back a bit to his career norms, how much longer can this guy catch? People are already talking about transitioning him to first base and he hasn't even played a game on his new five year, $85 million contract.

If McCann plays everyday catcher for four of those five years, and bats anywhere near what he did for his peak years, this is a good signing. I don't believe both of those things will be true though. Even assuming the bat returns, if he plays first base, his normal production is not good enough. His great value at the plate stems from the fact that be plays the catcher position. His overall numbers aren't good enough to make up the difference in position. He's a 20 home run guy who rarely slugs .500 and has never walked more than 74 times in a season. That is an average to below average bat at first base.


DAN:
You got me, I love the McCann signing of him as a catcher. I do NOT want to see him at first base. Mark Teixeira is at first base, assuming he returns from injury. Moving McCann to first only re-opens the hole at catcher I was excited to see filled.


TODD:
Moving on. As for Jacoby Ellsbury, you mentioned one of the obvious positives in signing him: he's a better version of Brett Gardner who also makes Gardner expendable as a trade chip. This is important because Gardner may be the only trade chip on the Yankees roster right now!

The thing many people do not realize is that Ellsbury is also younger than Gardner (albeit very slightly). And he has amazing upside. Although he will probably never approach his 2011 season numbers again, Brett Gardner can never sniff that type of production. But even with another elite power season being unlikely, Ellsbury brings a ton of skills to the table. The stolen bases and runs scored are a given. He has always hovered in the high .270s to .290s in batting average as well, even if he falls short of .300.

What everyone got on the Ellsbury signing for was the size of the contract. Not only did it possibly increase the asking price for Cano, but it begged the question of whether an injury-plagued player like Jacoby Ellsbury be worth seven years, $153 million? The numbers say yes.


DAN:
Numbers please.


TODD:
Last year Ellsbury played in 134 games. He bats lead-off, so missing 28 games, he still managed to collect 577 at-bats. For some comparison, Robinson Cano played in 160 games last year and had 605 at-bats. It's not as much of a difference as people seem to believe. But playing in 134 games, Ellsbury was 5.8 wins above replacement (WAR) according to Baseball-Reference. This figure is not perfect, but it takes into account a player's hitting, as well as his base-running and fielding abilities. Missing roughly thirty games, Ellsbury was just about a six win player.

Not to get too number-crazy here but, according to FanGraphs data, with the way the market is moving and how much money teams are spending, the cost of one win above replacement is around $6 million for free-agency-eligible players. That means, on the open market, a two win player could fetch $12 million, and a six win player like Ellsbury should cost around $36 million per year. This is just speaking of players added on the market, not in regards to rookies or players not eligible for arbitration. So, obviously these figures are not a perfect translation of the league. Mike Trout is the best player in the world and still makes under a million dollars because he hasn't hit free agency yet. However, open market wins cost what they cost. It is not an opinion on the value of said player. It is strictly the math of what wins cost to purchase.


DAN:
So you're saying the Yankees got themselves a deal? That also means Mike Trout should fetch $30 million a year easily when he does hit free agency. No wonder Cano pushed for the big bucks.


TODD:
Exactly. With the increased television revenue being delivered to each franchise in the coming years, that figure will probably increase. A large part of the defense of Robinson Cano's contract was that Seattle essentially bought him with the National TV deal money they will get, which is $25 million per season. So heading back to the Yankees, even if Ellsbury declines as a player in the coming seasons, which he is sure to do, his contract will not be unbearably high. In fact, if he continues with seasons like last year, he will be a bargain while still just hitting nine home runs. Ellsbury "only" needs to settle in as a 3.5 win player to legitimize the contract, a figure he has dwarfed two of the past three seasons.


[Part one - Arrivals and Departures]
[Part two - Numbers to the Moves]

New York Yankees off-season Money tree - Part two

New York Yankees off-season Money tree - Part two
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (12-13-13)

[Part one - Arrivals and Departures]



TODD:

I disagree that the spending cap is irrelevant. I think it still means something and the men in charge are trying their best to stay underneath it. The delay on the Alex Rodriguez verdict puts a damper on things since they have no knowledge of what will become of his $30 million per year. But the big moves thus far have kept them under $189 million with or with A-Rod in tow. Likewise, I would be very surprised if the Yankees moved in on one of these "ace" free agent pitchers for a big contract. While they certainly need another starter, Matt Garza or Ubaldo Jimenez for $18-$22 million per seems outlandish. The old Yankees wouldn't have cared because, as I said, they need another starter. But I think these Steinbrenners this year will try to stay under the luxury tax threshold.

That being said, there was a lot of money going around anyways. With many contracts off the books, there was green to disperse. I'll attack these moves one at a time, before getting to the McCann - Ellsbury debate.


DAN:

Hold on. There is a TON of money going around. They may avoid the luxury tax, but that by no means makes them frugal. If we assume Alex is suspended and his salary wiped away, there is nothing holding our Yankees back from swinging from the fences financially.


TODD:

We shall see, but as for the deals that went down.

Robinson Cano signs with Seattle. I'm fine with how things played out. He was a great player who wanted way too many years on his next contract. The Yankees will surely miss his bat and glove at second base but he is not irreplaceable. The key to this situation was obviously the timing of the Ellsbury signing. Once he signed for $153 million, there was no way Cano was going to come back for less than $200 million. Old baseball fans always harp on the exorbitant sums of money and how one mistake made by one franchise shouldn't effect the price another player gets. But it always does and it always will. Everyone agrees Cano is a better player than Jacoby Ellsbury. Even if Cano and his agents come to a realization that New York gave Ellsbury more than he was worth, are they really going to accept less? Get real.

Yankees sign Kelly Johnson. This actually happened before Cano signed with the Mariners, but I like the move either way. Johnson is a serviceable second baseman, with good speed and some power in his bat. He is not an everyday player, nor does he hit for much average, but a 15/10 season (home runes/steals) seems likely from him. He was also signed for $237 million less than Cano...if that matters.

The real kicker here at 2B will be if the Yanks manage to sign Omar Infante. Infante is a super utility guy who can play second most of the time but also rotate to third and short to spell guys. He would be perfect, as would his .318 average from last year. Apparently he and New York are far apart on a contract at the moment though.

Curtis Granderson signs with Mets. Combined with the fact that the Yankees signed Carlos Beltran, the departure of Granderson means almost nothing. He is a good power source from the outfield but not as good of an all-around hitter as Beltran. These moves offset each other and the upgrade from Grandy to Beltran helps cover a little of the departed bat at second base as well.


DAN:

Side note. I love how Curtis tried to suck up to the Mets fans by jumping on the "true New Yorker" bandwagon. Its probably the biggest headline he'll get as a Met, assuming he stays healthy and the Mets continue to be the poor baseball product we know and love.


TODD:

Yankees re-sign Hiroki Kuroda. It was for just one more year, which seems right for a pitcher of his age. While Kuroda was superb the first half of last season, by far the team's best pitcher, he tailed off so dramatically at the end of the season, I would have been fine with the Yanks not bringing him back. As it stands, we need him in the rotation, hopefully as not much more than a third or fourth starter though. A lot depends on the usefulness of Michael Pineda. Remember him? Hopefully the 6'7" youngster is finally ready to contribute in 2014 because we need him to be a middle-of-the-rotation pitcher for six months.

With Pineda, Kuroda, Nova and Sabathia set, we have four fifths of a good starting five. There are also a number of options already in the organization for that fifth spot. The problem is, no one on this list is really an ace or even a dominant number two. Sabathia is not that anymore if last year was any indication. The signing of a Matt Garza or Ubaldo Jimenez would solve this problem but, as I mentioned, I doubt the Yankees would spend the money on that spot, nor should they necessarily. At it stands, the Yankees rotation is fine but very mid-heavy without a top flight ace. Only Pineda has that upside of anyone on the major league roster right now.

As for Ellsbury and McCann...where should I begin?

I guess I'll start by saying I like both players in a vacuum for sure. Brian McCann was lauded as a perfect signing for New York because, as you touched on, the catcher position last season was a black hole of incompetence. This is true, and McCann is clearly a huge upgrade in this slot, but is the weakness of a spot reason enough to sign McCann when there were better hitters available at other positions? I guess this goes to NBA or NFL draft technique a little bit in regards to whether it makes the most sense to draft for need or to just take the best player.

[Part three - Point and Counterpoint]

[ If you missed Part one - Arrivals and Departures]

New York Yankees off-season Money tree - Part one

New York Yankees off-season Money tree - Part one
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (12-9-13)



TODD:

F that $189 million!

It seems as though, pending the results of the Alex Rodriguez arbitration hearing of course, the Yankees are eschewing their original off-season plan of sticking below a $189 million payroll for the 2014 season. Rather than making a bunch of small moves, they already plunged into two new, huge contracts before the winter meetings even kicked off.

There seem to be two distinct trains of thought in regards to the new hires. Everyone loves the Brian McCann signing and everyone hates the Jacoby Ellsbury contract. And let's not forget the departure of the one and only Robinson Cano.

I'm interested in hearing your perspective on these moves and lack there of, but just as a taste, I'll say that I kind of feel the exact opposite.


DAN:

That whole payroll limitation was just a fun way of curbing spending. You make a statement and stick to it, unless opportunities arise in which you just throw your prior limitation into the wind. The New York Yankees have no cap. I repeat, they do NOT have a spending limit and damn is it good to be a fan. They missed the playoffs in 2008, spent nearly a half a billion dollars in salary in the off-season and won the World Series in 2009. Now the team missed the playoffs again in 2013 and is well on their way to spending up a storm. As long as the team can afford it, I'll be marking my calendar for a ticker tape parade in November of 2014. Woo!

As for the moves and non moves so far, very very happy as a Yankees fan. Let me just lay them out for you and then I'll touch on the two men you mentioned and the big one that got away.

Non Moves:
Robinson Cano signs with Seattle (2B)
Curtis Granderson signs with Mets (OF)

Moves:
Yankees sign Brian McCann (C)
Yankees sign Jacoby Ellsbury (OF)
Yankees sign Carlos Beltran (OF)
Yankees sign Kelly Johnson (2B/INF)
Yankees re-sign Hiroki Kuroda (RHP)

People do in fact seem to love the McCann signing and hate the Ellsbury signing. I LOVE them both. I realize McCann is no Buster Posey, but the biggest Brian McCann stat that jumps out to me is his career .350 On Base Percentage. Sure, he's "only" a career .277 hitter, but the catcher he is replacing, Chris Stewart, is a mere.214 hitter with a .287 OBP for his career. The Yankees have lacked anyone at catcher who can consistently get on base for years. He fills a hole big time.

I also love the Ellsbury signing. He is a better version of Brett Gardner. Lots of speed and athleticism with better stats all around. But more importantly, he is a huge upgrade over the departed Granderson and makes Gardner a viable trading chip, something the Yankees have also been without for quite some time.

The move I was most happy about though, the re-signing of Kuroda for one year. That man can pitch. He isn't flashy, is getting old, but he definitely has one more year in the tank. He is a huge addition for the number two or three spot in the Yankees' rotation. With CC Sabathia as the number one, Kuroda takes pressure off of Pineda to perform as a number two starter. Big win here.

As for Mr. Cano, I tip my cap to the years we had together. I also tip my cap to the amount of money he got Seattle to pay him. I just hope he enjoys losing. Losing like a lot. If there is one thing that Seattle's baseball team is not known for, its playing in October. Cano's departure opens the door for some further additions to the Yankees roster in the pitching department. This has been an issue for the team for the last several years, and since Andy Pettitte can't be counted on to come out of retirement, we need someone who will rack up wins for the team.

So, you're anti McCann and pro Ellsbury? How do you feel about the loss of Cano and additions of Johnson, Beltran and Kuroda? Has some optimism crept into your otherwise cloudy disposition?

[Part two - Numbers to the Moves]

[Part three - Point and Counterpoint]