NBA Season of Déjà vu Season of Déjà vu - Part one

NBA Season of Déjà vu Season of Déjà vu - Part one

by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (12-2-13)



DAN:
The 2013-2014 NBA season is still very, very young and yet it's beginning to feel way too similar to last year. Injuries have once again derailed several teams and more than a few star players. I'm not interested in harping on the injuries, but what happens to Derrick Rose and the Bulls? Can the Nets turn the corner and get both Brooke Lopez and Deron Williams back at full strength to turn their season around?

I'm sad about Derrick Rose. I wanted a true contender for the Miami Heat come playoff time. Yes, yes there are the Indiana Pacers and Paul George is becoming a superstar. But he isn't one yet. Both the Bulls and Nets were serious competition, but I don't know if they can hang on for the long haul this season.

Things are looking up in the Western Conference, so give me your breakdown of the NBA season. Everyone knows its official start is on Christmas Day, so will the playoffs be as predictable as they were last year? Will every team we expect make it? Something has to change, doesn't it?


TODD:
You are correct in that it is much too soon to pay attention to the NBA standings. However, certain trends are obvious, whether because of injuries or the fact that your first-year head coach is spilling drinks on the sideline to get a free stoppage of play late in the game because he has no timeouts left.

The East is a wrap; call it right now. Miami and Indiana are both going to win over sixty games and no one else in the conference is going to approach fifty. It's a two-team race and Paul George is already a Star, with a capital S. He is making an All-NBA team this season. The Rose injury is the major cause of this supremacy race not being three-sided. Chicago has no ceiling with a healthy Derrick Rose. Now, their ceiling is fifty games and a trip to the second round of the playoffs. It's sad but true.

The rest of the East's supposed contenders have collapsed faster than stock in Kevin Garnett. Brooklyn and New York have been surprisingly terrible thus far, but lesser contenders like Milwaukee and Detroit have also failed to live up to expectations. Eight teams have to make the playoffs from this conference (some kind of silly rule mandates it). But that doesn't mean eight or seven (or even six!) teams will top a .500 record. If Miami does not face Indiana in the Eastern Conference Finals, something drastic went wrong for one of them.

As for the West, the exact opposite is transpiring, and I could not be more delighted about it. It looks like there will be no dominant team, but as many as twelve good teams. It is quite possible, by the end of the year, there will be as many as a dozen West teams with a better record than the eighth seed in the East.

San Antonio still looks amazing but so does Portland. It also seems like Houston, OKC and some others haven't even gotten going at full speed yet, even though they're still winning over 70% of their ballgames. A lot was expected out of New Orleans; they may be an interesting team to keep an eye on in the coming weeks, especially with the Anthony Davis injury. At 8-8 they are still very much in pursuit of a playoff spot, but they currently sit in a three way tie for 10th in the conference so they can't wait too long to turn things around.

So to finally answer your question, the playoffs will be exactly the same as always! The East is already decided. Heat v. Pacers, Eastern Conference Finals, mark it down; bet it; do whatever you gotta do. As for the West, it is as much of a craps shoot as it has been in recent years. I still see as many contenders to win the conference as we thought in August. You could even talk me into expanding that from the four we thought at the beginning of the season. Through a month of play, the West has actually become more competitive.


DAN:

That stunt cost Jason Kidd $50,000! One expensive use of a Downy paper towel. But I'm going on record that the Nets will be in the Eastern Conference Finals. Nets vs. Heat. I know the Pacers are on fire, but they need one more year of playoff experience before they can reach that 'next level.' Unfortunately we'll also have to hear about the Knicks all year, since you're spot on when saying no other team is formidable enough to matter in the East this season.

We disagree out West, but I'll toss a question quickly your way before tearing open that wound in Part two. Is there a surprise team in the East? Maybe the seventh or eighth seed who makes a surprise playoff run. It can't be the Nets, or even the Knicks. I'm pulling for the Celtics to take home that title this season.

[Part two - Its happening again]

LeBron James: King of Kings - Part one

LeBron James: King of Kings - Part one
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (6-10-13)



TODD:
Well, here we are. The Miami Heat are back in the NBA Finals, in no small part thanks to league MVP LeBron James. Okay, who are we kidding; it's the whole entire part thanks to LeBron James. He is the best player in the league, in the world, in the NBA since Michael Jordan. The leap between the Association's second best player (Kevin Durant) and James is wider than the gap between Durant and the rest of the top ten. Just look at the rest of this supposedly loaded Miami club that James carried. Dwyane Wade has not been healthy the entire season. He can only bring it in spurts, and that's not even every game. Chris Bosh is out-matched by any legit center, as Roy Hibbert demonstrated game after game. Bosh has become a stretch four, even though he really needs to be closer to the basket to grab rebounds for the otherwise small Heat. And the rest of the club is what it is: Mario Chalmers is sometimes good; Shane Battier and Ray Allen used to be good at shooting threes; Chris Andersen is tall. You get the idea.

Which brings us to only one logical conclusion: LeBron could have carried nearly any team to the Finals. Just look back at those Cleveland Cavaliers teams he trekked to the championship for an even better example of his prowess. His best teammates were Mo Williams and Zydrunas Ilgauskas. Seriously. That's not even a joke.

So let's play a game! Take LeBron off the Heat and put him on any team, replacing their best player. How far would that team have gone?

For example, if LeBron replaced Carmelo Anthony on the Knicks, that New York team makes the Finals, easy. They become the best team in the conference. James is that much better of an all-around player than Melo is. The defensive gap alone is so wide, we can't see to the other side. Now not every team has a clear-cut best player. If we used the Memphis Grizzlies, would we be replacing Marc Gasol or Mike Conley? Same goes for Indiana. But these teams aren't important here anyways. They were so close to making the Finals that obviously obtaining the MVP would have pushed them over the edge. What about some lottery teams though?

Here were the 14 lottery teams this season, the teams that were not good enough to even make the playoffs: Philadelphia, Toronto, Detroit, Cleveland, Washington, Charlotte, Orlando, Sacramento, Phoenix, Dallas, New Orleans, Utah, Portland and Minnesota. With the help of one LeBron James, no less than half of these teams would have leaped all the way from chasing ping pong balls to chasing the Larry O'Brein trophy.

Toronto, Detroit and Washington are no-brainers. These teams have a number of impressive players and complimentary pieces. Replace Rudy Gay, Greg Monroe and John Wall respectively with James and all those squads could have won multiple playoff rounds. Toronto would have young studs Jonas Valanciunas and Terrence Ross as well as veterans Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan, Amir Johnson and the capable Andrea Bargnani (who, when he's shooting well is essentially everything Bosh was in the Indiana series: not capable of defending or rebounding but can stretch to the three point line on offense). Detroit would still be left with Andre Drummond in the middle and James would be flanked by shooters in Brandon Knight, Rodney Stuckey and Kyle Singler. With Jose Calderon running point, this team is clearly better than any year LeBron played in Cleveland. Same goes for Washington with two bigs (Nene and Emeka Okafor) and Bradley Beal is so good the Wiz wouldn't even trade him for LeBron's real shooting guard teammate, Wade.

In the West, Dallas, New Orleans, Utah, Portland and Minnesota all make runs in the playoffs with LeBron. Not to get too detailed, but none of these teams are that far away from playoff contention. Minnesota would have made the playoffs with or without LeBron had injuries not derailed their season. Take each team's go-to guy away and replace him with the King and every squad could challenge San Antonio out west. If you're telling me I can claim Eric Gordon as the Hornets' number one guy, that team is loaded. A lineup of Anthony Davis, Robin Lopez, James, Ryan Anderson and Greivis Vasquez is so ridiculously tall, it would create mismatches against any opponent in the league. Too bad Austin Rivers was the worst rated player in the history of the NBA this season or we really could have something here. Otherwise, if Anthony Davis is replaced by James instead, this team becomes much more prototypical but remains quite lethal.

So that's my eight: eight lottery teams who, with the addition of James, would have (a) made the playoffs and (b) made a run at the title. You could even talk me into a few more. Philadelphia might not have quite enough but isn't too far away; same goes for Phoenix and even Charlotte if we're feeling generous. Some of these teams missed the playoffs by 20+ games. If there was a WAR stat for the NBA, LeBron would be worth that much, trust me.

Tell me where I'm wrong. Tell me why I'm crazy.


DAN:
I'm a smart guy, so I obviously agree that LeBron is the best player, blah, blah, blah. But your missing the biggest point of all. He is light years better than he ever was as a Cleveland Cavalier. Sports pundits are touting the rematch between LeBron and the Spurs, vindication for his Finals loss with Cleveland in 2007. But LeBron is NOT the same player. At times his Miami team looked average at best during the Pacers series, but LeBron knew when to take over, when it had to be him, and he was beyond clutch. He is unmatched in the league right now and your argument stands. He would definitely have brought a few of those teams to the finals, swapping him for each team's best player. But ALL eight teams, that's crazy talk! They would all be playoff contenders and definitely make the conference finals. But they aren't all making the NBA finals. Give Dwyane Wade and Bosh a bit more credit than that.

Close, but no Cigar:

Detroit: Greg Monroe for LeBron: This team wouldn't beat Chicago or Indiana.
Washington: John Wall for LeBron: I like their chances, but I think they lose in seven to Indiana.
Portland: Umm, no.

All the way to the NBA Finals baby: (in order of dominance)

New Orleans: Eric Gordon for LeBron: Can we make this team happen please?
Minnesota: Kevin Love for LeBron: If Love somehow stays, this team's a dynasty. Still a winner.
Toronto: Rudy Gay for LeBron: You won me over with your roster breakdown.
Dallas: Dirk Nowitzki for LeBron: Cuban might make this happen in a year or two. Scary.
Utah: They practically win with no one. Add LeBron and look out.

That was the easy part, putting LeBron on a bad team. Let's play the reverse game!

LeBron teamed up in Miami with Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh, but unfortunately age and injury have caught up with Wade. They won't win six titles like they predicted, albeit somewhat sarcastically.

What 'Big Three' that includes LeBron is the ideal dynasty team? He can go anywhere after next season, or Pat Riley will bring in anyone to keep him in Miami. Who's the new big three?


TODD:
Isn't it obvious? The new and improved Big Three, and perhaps the only remaining Big Three in the NBA with all the roster movement that has gone on, will be in Cleveland.

LeBron returns to Ohio to make amends and team with Kyrie Irving (the best under 24 point guard in the league...and yes, I had to look up Russell Westbrook's age and make sure I went under that threshold. Westbrook has already turned 24 so we're safe), and Anderson Varejao who was absolutely killing it this past season before he went down with an injury. Albeit in just 25 games, Varejao averaged a 14 and 14 with good shooting splits and 2+ stocks (steals plus blocks). He is arguably one of the best complimentary big men in the entire league, a middle-class man's Joakim Noah.

[Part two - A new Castle for the King]