NBA Season of Déjà vu Season of Déjà vu - Part one
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (12-2-13)DAN:
The 2013-2014 NBA season is still very, very young and yet it's beginning to feel way too similar to last year. Injuries have once again derailed several teams and more than a few star players. I'm not interested in harping on the injuries, but what happens to Derrick Rose and the Bulls? Can the Nets turn the corner and get both Brooke Lopez and Deron Williams back at full strength to turn their season around?
I'm sad about Derrick Rose. I wanted a true contender for the Miami Heat come playoff time. Yes, yes there are the Indiana Pacers and Paul George is becoming a superstar. But he isn't one yet. Both the Bulls and Nets were serious competition, but I don't know if they can hang on for the long haul this season.
Things are looking up in the Western Conference, so give me your breakdown of the NBA season. Everyone knows its official start is on Christmas Day, so will the playoffs be as predictable as they were last year? Will every team we expect make it? Something has to change, doesn't it?
TODD:
You are correct in that it is much too soon to pay attention to the NBA standings. However, certain trends are obvious, whether because of injuries or the fact that your first-year head coach is spilling drinks on the sideline to get a free stoppage of play late in the game because he has no timeouts left.
The East is a wrap; call it right now. Miami and Indiana are both going to win over sixty games and no one else in the conference is going to approach fifty. It's a two-team race and Paul George is already a Star, with a capital S. He is making an All-NBA team this season. The Rose injury is the major cause of this supremacy race not being three-sided. Chicago has no ceiling with a healthy Derrick Rose. Now, their ceiling is fifty games and a trip to the second round of the playoffs. It's sad but true.
The rest of the East's supposed contenders have collapsed faster than stock in Kevin Garnett. Brooklyn and New York have been surprisingly terrible thus far, but lesser contenders like Milwaukee and Detroit have also failed to live up to expectations. Eight teams have to make the playoffs from this conference (some kind of silly rule mandates it). But that doesn't mean eight or seven (or even six!) teams will top a .500 record. If Miami does not face Indiana in the Eastern Conference Finals, something drastic went wrong for one of them.
As for the West, the exact opposite is transpiring, and I could not be more delighted about it. It looks like there will be no dominant team, but as many as twelve good teams. It is quite possible, by the end of the year, there will be as many as a dozen West teams with a better record than the eighth seed in the East.
San Antonio still looks amazing but so does Portland. It also seems like Houston, OKC and some others haven't even gotten going at full speed yet, even though they're still winning over 70% of their ballgames. A lot was expected out of New Orleans; they may be an interesting team to keep an eye on in the coming weeks, especially with the Anthony Davis injury. At 8-8 they are still very much in pursuit of a playoff spot, but they currently sit in a three way tie for 10th in the conference so they can't wait too long to turn things around.
So to finally answer your question, the playoffs will be exactly the same as always! The East is already decided. Heat v. Pacers, Eastern Conference Finals, mark it down; bet it; do whatever you gotta do. As for the West, it is as much of a craps shoot as it has been in recent years. I still see as many contenders to win the conference as we thought in August. You could even talk me into expanding that from the four we thought at the beginning of the season. Through a month of play, the West has actually become more competitive.
DAN:
That stunt cost Jason Kidd $50,000! One expensive use of a Downy paper towel. But I'm going on record that the Nets will be in the Eastern Conference Finals. Nets vs. Heat. I know the Pacers are on fire, but they need one more year of playoff experience before they can reach that 'next level.' Unfortunately we'll also have to hear about the Knicks all year, since you're spot on when saying no other team is formidable enough to matter in the East this season.
We disagree out West, but I'll toss a question quickly your way before tearing open that wound in Part two. Is there a surprise team in the East? Maybe the seventh or eighth seed who makes a surprise playoff run. It can't be the Nets, or even the Knicks. I'm pulling for the Celtics to take home that title this season.
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