NBA Free Agency: Winners and Tankers - Part two
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (7-19-13)
[Part one - Crying tears of Joy]
DAN:
Next May we'll care more about who is bottoming out in the NBA and who's fighting to make the playoffs than who has the best overall record. Although the battle for best record in each conference shouldn't be overlooked. Chicago and the Nets will be giving Miami a real run for its money for home court advantage, and in the West Oklahoma City will have to fend off the Clippers and Spurs. However, the tankapalooza will surely be the biggest story. As for 8th seed squabbles, I can't disagree more with the importance of just making the playoffs when it comes to New Orleans and the Bucks.
There are two types of franchises in the NBA, perennial winners and everyone else. The list of winners is rather short, but happens to include my Celtics. As a winner they have the luxury of placing future success and the potential for more NBA titles ahead of current success, a la the upcoming season. The fans aren't going anywhere and have won so often in the past that they realize what's good for their team in the long run. Everyone else, teams like New Orleans and Milwaukee who you mentioned, need success to just keep going. Those owners can't take their fans for granted, can't tank a potential playoff season. How often do the Bucks or Pelicans make the playoffs? Once every five seasons if they're lucky? I'm not sure its even that good for those poor franchises.
As a Jets fan I know what its like to consistently miss the playoffs. And I know how amazing it is for my team to even be in the post season, let alone be competitive and advance a round or two. Now rooting for the Clippers for eight years, I have loved every minute of these last two seasons with playoff basketball. Sure, this past year could have been more successful, but considering the history of the team and its fans, this season was awesome! So as the New Orleans Pelicans, if you have even a decent team you have to work to make it better. You have to give your fans hope, a playoff berth. Fight for that post season spot. You aren't going to be the worst team in the league, so win more fans nationally with a first round playoff upset victory. That's exactly what you are congratulating the Pistons for doing in free agency!
I'm going to real back my tangent and stomp on your Clippers hate. DeAndre Jordan is getting traded before the season. And if for some reason he is still on the team, mark my words, you will not see Doc Rivers playing him with five minutes to go in the game. He is too big a free throw shooting liability. That is what Doc Rivers brings to the table. And I'm still on the Blake Griffin bandwagon. He WILL improve this season. His game will get better and another season playing with Chris Paul, come on, how can he not get smarter?
TODD:
How can Blake Griffin not get smarter? Duh. Because supposedly Griffin and CP3 hate each other...just sayin'.
But anyways, you make a great point on the fringe playoff contenders. I don't know why I liked the Pistons' moves so much more than those other squads. Maybe it's because they have a higher upside with those three bigs, two of which are very young. They still aren't making the Eastern Conference Finals with that group; I get it...although, would the Heat be able to handle them?? They'd be like Indiana on super pills, with three bigs instead of two, and no point guard close to the level of George Hill and no player anywhere near Paul George...alright, check that.
So maybe you're right about a team just making the playoffs can be a good thing. Although NBA history tells us the easiest way to get good is to bottom out first, Houston just proved that is not absolutely necessary. They toiled away in the middle for years, collecting assets and were able to turn them into two of the top 15 players in the league. It can be done, even if Daryl Morey almost lost his job in the process.
The only thing you brought up which isn't totally fair is the Jets comparison. Making the playoffs in the NFL is a much different beast. Any NFL playoff team can make the Super Bowl. In fact, the favorites rarely do it seems. The NBA does not have such circumstances and probably never will. It is not a league for Cinderella stories.
DAN:
Wow, excellent point but why is that? We NEVER see a Cinderella story in the NBA, but we get it in college hoops all the time. In every one of the other three major sports you see Cinderellas, teams who squeak into the post season and run all the way to the championship. It hadn't been common in baseball, but in the last several years its nearly a certainty that one team will surprise everyone come September into October. In the NFL we see it year in and year out, teams going deep into the playoffs seemingly out of nowhere.
Now these "Cinderella" stories don't always win it all, but in the NBA they never get past the second round of the playoffs. I was pulling so hard for Golden State this past season, just because having them in the Western Conference Finals would have felt like a Cinderella story. But even so, it wouldn't have been. The Warriors were really really good all season and by no means squeaked into the playoffs. The Lakers would have been the team this past year to meet the Cinderella qualification.
I know we jumped ship on the whole free agency and tanking debate, but you snagged my brain on this one. You're the college hoops expert, so why no NBA Cinderella teams when we get them in the NCAA so often?
TODD:
You bring up a slightly interesting point but it has nothing to do with college basketball. Cinderella stories happen so often in the NCAA because their playoffs are one game. The better team will win one game, say, 65% of the time...leaving us with upsets in 35% of all games being played. Thus, March Madness is filled with upsets! In a bunch of one-game series, it is not anarchy; it's just math.
As for hockey and baseball, there are two important equalizers that swing series unlike in other sports. Those equalizers are the goalie and the starting pitcher, respectively. The famous baseball saying is momentum is only as good as your next day's starting pitcher and a hot goalie can take you all the way. The best team does not necessarily have the best of these players.
NBA basketball is really quite simple. They play best of seven series so the best team has a much larger chance of winning. More importantly, a young team needs to go through the process and learn how to win, take their lumps, etc. You're first supposed to make the playoffs. The next year, you can win a round or two. Only after the third or fourth time experiencing "playoff basketball" should you be able to win the title. Teams don't come from nowhere and advance to the Finals. Just doesn't happen.
This makes things easy to predict for the upcoming NBA season. The Houston Rockets might make the West finals, but they don't know how to win yet. Mark it down. No championship for Dwight.
DAN:
On a completely unrelated topic... I'm getting MARRIED tomorrow! 7-20-13 Woooo!
TODD:
Yay! Best man in the house! And congrats of course.
DAN:
It's going to be a blast. I may be a bit dazed afterwards, so its fitting that we talk "What ha... happened?" next week. Then there'll be a one week Seesaw Sports hiatus for my honeymoon, to return in August with all out NFL.
