NBA Free Agency: Winners and Tankers - Part two

NBA Free Agency: Winners and Tankers - Part two
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (7-19-13)

[Part one - Crying tears of Joy]



DAN:
Next May we'll care more about who is bottoming out in the NBA and who's fighting to make the playoffs than who has the best overall record. Although the battle for best record in each conference shouldn't be overlooked. Chicago and the Nets will be giving Miami a real run for its money for home court advantage, and in the West Oklahoma City will have to fend off the Clippers and Spurs. However, the tankapalooza will surely be the biggest story. As for 8th seed squabbles, I can't disagree more with the importance of just making the playoffs when it comes to New Orleans and the Bucks.

There are two types of franchises in the NBA, perennial winners and everyone else. The list of winners is rather short, but happens to include my Celtics. As a winner they have the luxury of placing future success and the potential for more NBA titles ahead of current success, a la the upcoming season. The fans aren't going anywhere and have won so often in the past that they realize what's good for their team in the long run. Everyone else, teams like New Orleans and Milwaukee who you mentioned, need success to just keep going. Those owners can't take their fans for granted, can't tank a potential playoff season. How often do the Bucks or Pelicans make the playoffs? Once every five seasons if they're lucky? I'm not sure its even that good for those poor franchises.

As a Jets fan I know what its like to consistently miss the playoffs. And I know how amazing it is for my team to even be in the post season, let alone be competitive and advance a round or two. Now rooting for the Clippers for eight years, I have loved every minute of these last two seasons with playoff basketball. Sure, this past year could have been more successful, but considering the history of the team and its fans, this season was awesome! So as the New Orleans Pelicans, if you have even a decent team you have to work to make it better. You have to give your fans hope, a playoff berth. Fight for that post season spot. You aren't going to be the worst team in the league, so win more fans nationally with a first round playoff upset victory. That's exactly what you are congratulating the Pistons for doing in free agency!

I'm going to real back my tangent and stomp on your Clippers hate. DeAndre Jordan is getting traded before the season. And if for some reason he is still on the team, mark my words, you will not see Doc Rivers playing him with five minutes to go in the game. He is too big a free throw shooting liability. That is what Doc Rivers brings to the table. And I'm still on the Blake Griffin bandwagon. He WILL improve this season. His game will get better and another season playing with Chris Paul, come on, how can he not get smarter?


TODD:
How can Blake Griffin not get smarter? Duh. Because supposedly Griffin and CP3 hate each other...just sayin'.

But anyways, you make a great point on the fringe playoff contenders. I don't know why I liked the Pistons' moves so much more than those other squads. Maybe it's because they have a higher upside with those three bigs, two of which are very young. They still aren't making the Eastern Conference Finals with that group; I get it...although, would the Heat be able to handle them?? They'd be like Indiana on super pills, with three bigs instead of two, and no point guard close to the level of George Hill and no player anywhere near Paul George...alright, check that.

So maybe you're right about a team just making the playoffs can be a good thing. Although NBA history tells us the easiest way to get good is to bottom out first, Houston just proved that is not absolutely necessary. They toiled away in the middle for years, collecting assets and were able to turn them into two of the top 15 players in the league. It can be done, even if Daryl Morey almost lost his job in the process.

The only thing you brought up which isn't totally fair is the Jets comparison. Making the playoffs in the NFL is a much different beast. Any NFL playoff team can make the Super Bowl. In fact, the favorites rarely do it seems. The NBA does not have such circumstances and probably never will. It is not a league for Cinderella stories.


DAN:
Wow, excellent point but why is that? We NEVER see a Cinderella story in the NBA, but we get it in college hoops all the time. In every one of the other three major sports you see Cinderellas, teams who squeak into the post season and run all the way to the championship. It hadn't been common in baseball, but in the last several years its nearly a certainty that one team will surprise everyone come September into October. In the NFL we see it year in and year out, teams going deep into the playoffs seemingly out of nowhere.

Now these "Cinderella" stories don't always win it all, but in the NBA they never get past the second round of the playoffs. I was pulling so hard for Golden State this past season, just because having them in the Western Conference Finals would have felt like a Cinderella story. But even so, it wouldn't have been. The Warriors were really really good all season and by no means squeaked into the playoffs. The Lakers would have been the team this past year to meet the Cinderella qualification.

I know we jumped ship on the whole free agency and tanking debate, but you snagged my brain on this one. You're the college hoops expert, so why no NBA Cinderella teams when we get them in the NCAA so often?


TODD:
You bring up a slightly interesting point but it has nothing to do with college basketball. Cinderella stories happen so often in the NCAA because their playoffs are one game. The better team will win one game, say, 65% of the time...leaving us with upsets in 35% of all games being played. Thus, March Madness is filled with upsets! In a bunch of one-game series, it is not anarchy; it's just math.

As for hockey and baseball, there are two important equalizers that swing series unlike in other sports. Those equalizers are the goalie and the starting pitcher, respectively. The famous baseball saying is momentum is only as good as your next day's starting pitcher and a hot goalie can take you all the way. The best team does not necessarily have the best of these players.

NBA basketball is really quite simple. They play best of seven series so the best team has a much larger chance of winning. More importantly, a young team needs to go through the process and learn how to win, take their lumps, etc. You're first supposed to make the playoffs. The next year, you can win a round or two. Only after the third or fourth time experiencing "playoff basketball" should you be able to win the title. Teams don't come from nowhere and advance to the Finals. Just doesn't happen.

This makes things easy to predict for the upcoming NBA season. The Houston Rockets might make the West finals, but they don't know how to win yet. Mark it down. No championship for Dwight.


DAN:
On a completely unrelated topic... I'm getting MARRIED tomorrow! 7-20-13 Woooo!


TODD:
Yay! Best man in the house! And congrats of course.


DAN:
It's going to be a blast. I may be a bit dazed afterwards, so its fitting that we talk "What ha... happened?" next week. Then there'll be a one week Seesaw Sports hiatus for my honeymoon, to return in August with all out NFL.

[If you missed Part one - Crying tears of Joy]

NBA Free Agency: Crying tears of Joy - Part one

NBA Free Agency: Crying tears of Joy - Part one
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (7-15-13)



DAN:
I needed some time for my tears to dry. Tears of JOY and SADNESS, but ultimately joy. As a former Bostonian who now calls Los Angeles home, I root for both the Celtics and Clippers. I'm like Bill Simmons, if he never watched basketball. More of a playoffs guy. Normally this causes little to no conflict of interest. Hell, the Clippers have stunk for forever. But NBA free agency threw pie in my face. Should I be happy the Clippers have an amazing new coach in Doc Rivers and re-signed Chris Paul, or sad that the Celtics lost an amazing coach in Doc Rivers, replaced him with a college guy from Butler, and dumped Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett in the process?

I think I'm actually happy about both things! The Clippers got better and possibly pushed themselves into the Western Conference Finals discussion. The Celtics got worse, exactly what they needed with a roster previously full of aged super stars. I do feel bad for Rajon Rondo, but ultimately he'll either get help in 2014 in Boston, or find himself on a new team that can't be worse than the current deconstructed Celtics.

So how about this NBA free agency, once again making waves? Doc to the Clippers. Pierce and Garnett to the Nets. Howard to Houston. Other people going places that the local fan bases care about. Good times.


TODD:
Now you know me. I'm more of an "other people going places" person. I don't have an affinity for the Celtics or Nets or Knicks or any of the bigwigs in the NBA. I kinda, sorta have a soft spot for Houston because I was always a Tracy McGrady fan and followed his career. But even still, I am more excited about James Harden taking another step than I am to see what Dwight Howard has left.

Is it just me or was that whole Dwight episode very bizarre? Did anyone watch him play last season? He wasn't even a top three center, let alone a top three guy overall. Give me Marc Gasol, Joakim Noah or, hell, I'd even think about Brook Lopez over him. He obviously makes the Rockets better, but not a championship favorite. And I am sorry to say that Doc Rivers doesn't make the Clippers one either. They still have no crunch-time lineup, no big men they feel comfortable playing down the stretch of games, and very few defensive-minded players in general. Those were problems that crept up last season and, although Doc may improve the team's overall defensive outlook, he doesn't improve J.J. Redick's on-ball defense or Blake Griffin's shot blocking or Deandre Jordan's free throw shooting. They should be a dynamic offensive team once again; they should not, however, be looked at as better than Oklahoma City.

In the end, the Western Conference has gotten much tighter all around but this idea that Houston and LA are going to battle in the conference finals seems a bit premature. In fact, I think the more interesting battle will be for the eighth spot. Minnesota and Portland seem much improved. Dallas is going for it. There are at least ten teams that are playoff-worthy and that isn't even counting the Lakers.

As for the East, and in the category of "other people going places," I am sky high on the Detroit Pistons. I've always had a fondness for Greg Monroe: an adept passing power forward who can step out and hit a jump shot. The entire league now has a fondness for Andre Drummond, yet another UConn product, following in the footsteps of Rudy Gay, who actually seems like a better NBA player than he ever was in college. Brandon Knight is a nice guard who just needs to find his position, either at the point or the two. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, their number one pick, was the best shooter in the draft and should immediately open up more room inside for everyone else. And adding Josh Smith to this mix is fascinating. Smith had the reverse-Dwight happen to him this offseason. For some reason, people were all about crushing his game. Whereas everyone overlooked what Howard was bad at (or no longer good at), people focused on the small aspects of Smith's game that are stomach-churning. However, his overall talent is outstanding and he is routinely one of the best seven or eight forwards in the game. No other player in the league today matches his production of points, rebounds, steals and blocks. I think he instantly makes Detroit a playoff team in the Eastern Conference.

What is interesting about this coming season is how many teams are actually going for those final playoff spots in each conference. There are a few squads who are (rightly) rebuilding. 2014 is a popular destination for tankers with the sky high prospects expected to enter the draft. However, there are a handful more teams who probably should be making themselves worse. Undoubtedly, different owners have different objectives, but what is Milwaukee or New Orleans going to do with that playoff berth if they get it?

There are a lot of pieces other than the actual road to the championship to consider for the 2013-2014 season. In fact, I can guarantee the race for the eighth seeds in each conference and the race for the worst overall record in the league will be much more interesting than that battle for the top spot next May.


DAN:
The Dwight Howard saga was utterly predictable. He is a big, fun loving personality that the win at all costs sports media can't seem to understand. Not all things are under our control and Dwight believes if a title comes his way, so be it, but he can't MAKE it happen. It must be his relaxed attitude that bothers people and has sparked way too many headlines, because if its anything else then I cry foul. He isn't wrong, and considering the competition, will need some major luck to even make the NBA Finals ever again. Kind of like how the marbles fell for the Spurs this post season.

As for the tankers and non tankers, you're spot on when it comes to the inevitably fierce battle for the 8th seed and worst overall record come next May. But the ultimate goal of every NBA team is unchanged and the most interesting thing will STILL be who can win the championship.

[Part two - Winners and Tankers]

NBA Playoffs: No Zzz's Please - Part one

NBA Playoffs: No Zzz's Please - Part one
By Dan Salem and Todd Salem (5-20-13)



DAN:
So its come down to this and I couldn't be less excited. The NBA playoffs are considered the real season, the second season, the good stuff if you will. Since almost half the league, sixteen teams, makes it we get the best competing against one another. And I'd agree that the best teams were in it this year, but that is NOT saying much.

Round one match ups fell on their faces. The Clippers, Celtics and Lakers, three interesting teams who are fun to watch, all bit the dirt. Only the Celtics made a peep against the Knicks. A peep. Round two pitted the most deserving teams against one another, to be sure. But defense is boring as hell. Memphis and Indiana are great and all, but slow basketball is boring basketball. We can even include San Antonio in that grouping, leaving one of the four match ups as not slow and boring. Yet the Miami Heat were in that final match up, and being better than everyone, absolutely destroyed the Bulls after getting woken up in game one from their "We are the best and you all know it" daze. Zzzzzzzz.

Finally round three, the conference finals! Oh nuts, Memphis made it so we are guaranteed one slow as hell series of games. I respect the hell out of their team, their defensive prowess and their ability to win despite never having done so. Yet can we all agree they make an awful television product? To make matters worse, the second best television product, the Golden State Warriors, were eliminated by the Spurs who aren't exactly a fast team either. I had the pleasure of seeing Golden State in person the first week of the regular season against the Clippers and damn are they fun to watch.They can shoot the lights out of any arena and the 2013 playoffs have now lost something without them in it. Spurs vs. Memphis is like asking to giraffes to fight. Eventually one will knock the other over, but who knows how long it will take.

In the east we have Miami against the Pacers. It would have been fun for the Knicks to keep playing since if nothing else, they are interesting. But it doesn't matter. It was a near certainty before the regular season began that the Heat would be back in the NBA Finals and low and behold, here they are on the brink of doing just that. They will win, possibly sweep, but definitely win. Thank you Lebron James. You are always fun to watch.


TODD:
I think you may be confusing popular teams with exciting teams. You've fallen into the television ratings hole that pedestrian NBA fans often do. First of all, the Celtics were not fun to watch. They were awful offensively, even with Rondo playing. I agree Indiana and Memphis are slogging, defensive black holes but San Antonio cannot be grouped in with them. They shoot a ton of threes, play fast-paced and share the basketball with a wonder only replicated in Miami. The Spurs series with the Warriors was one of the more exciting playoff rounds we've had in a while, especially before Stephen Curry tweaked his ankle.

By the way, what's more exciting than witnessing a player make "the leap"? Watching Curry become unstoppable offensively by being the most effective three point shooter in some time (in history?!?) was amazing. He set the league's all-time record for made threes in a year during the regular season while shooting a remarkable percentage; he somehow then managed to step his game up another notch during the playoffs by taking nearly 10 threes per contest, making a large chunk of them and striking pure fear into the hearts of anyone he is playing. There may not be a more terrifying player for your favorite team to face other than Curry and LeBron. It is remarkable that he did not even make the All-Star team this year.

But I digress. These NBA Playoffs are giving us what we want/expect every year from the NBA Playoffs: few, if any upsets and the very best teams playing for the title. Sure Oklahoma City should have been one of the final four, but injuries play a part and they fell victim. Otherwise, who is more deserving of making the conference finals than Miami, Indiana, Memphis and San Antonio? The NBA gets it right nearly every season. And some people enjoy watching great defense!


DAN:
I am not one of those people who enjoy watching great defense, but if San Antonio and Miami make the finals I will be elated. This would pit the old guard vs. the new, old dynasty vs. current. And the Spurs hall of famers would be playing one last time in the finals. At least I think it would be their last, as it seems every season for the last four they have managed to be great and ignore father time entirely.

I loved watching Steph Curry make the leap, but is there anything worse than watching a player unleap like Kevin Durant did?

[Part two - The 'Unleap' and the Miami Heat]

Who dies first? Celtics or Lakers

Who dies first? Celtics or Lakers

by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (2-4-13)

TODD:
The NBA has been flipped on its head this season. We all thought the strike-shortened year of 2011-2012 would be weird but this is something completely different.

In a sport where the best (nearly) always climbs to the top and the lengthy playoff rounds (almost) always guarantee the best teams advance, we are witnessing something special this season. The two most successful franchises in NBA history, the Boston Celtics and the Los Angeles Lakers, are both floundering. Both are bordering on the lottery with Boston currently sitting one game over .500 and the Lakers four below the .500 mark.

To make matters worse, Rajon Rondo tore his ACL, making him out for the rest of the season. And, on the other side of the country, it seems as though LA is actually considering trading one of their All-Star centers. What should happen here?

Pick a team and go. Should things be blown up, do they bottom out to try to get the best lottery pick possible? Is it worth scrounging together replacements (in Rondo's case) to go for that 7th or 8th playoff spot? Is the NBA (ratings-wise) in big trouble if neither of these teams make the playoffs or would the triumphant return of playoffs in New York help cover this?


DAN:
Asking to pick between the Celtics and Lakers isn't really fair; there's only one sane selection. As for the big picture, the NBA would be in trouble ratings-wise if it were any other point in its history, but there are SO many superstars in the league now. The Celtics and Lakers grab casual fans for sure, but last year's playoffs introduced the country to the OKC Thunder and crowned Miami. Those are the teams to watch. Throw in the Knicks and the Clippers and we have the two largest basketball markets with two excellent teams. If the Celtics OR the Lakers miss the playoffs the NBA is fine, but if both don't make it then there will be a ratings hit to the first round only. Neither team is getting any farther.

Now for my pick, which is obviously the Celtics. I adopted them as my basketball team way back when, living in Boston during college. Moving to Los Angeles solidified my disdain for their arch rival, the Lakers. Sure its fun out here when the Lakers are winning, but its vastly more fun when the Clippers are winning and the Lakers are losing. I'm proud to say I root for the Clippers too, so boo Lakers and yay Celtics. Here in the real world though, the Celtics suck. They were a floundering team who barely managed to show up on a nightly basis unless it was a nationally televised game. And this was BEFORE Rondo got hurt.

The Celtics have been playing a game of politics for a year or so now. They didn't want to alienate their fans by trading the "Big Three" who won them a title and yet they needed somebody to go. Ray Allen left last off season and no rebuilding happened, mainly because both Garnett and Pierce are still on the team. With Rondo going down they can officially throw in the towel on the season. They may have wanted to shoot for the lottery before, but now they have a legit excuse to be a worse team without being accused of tanking. Don't replace Rondo. Here's my ideal scenario. Pierce and Garnett both retire after the season with the Celtics sucking so bad they get a ton of balls in the lottery. High draft picks abound and with Rondo rehabilitated to a new-look Celtics team, they come back with a fury next year.

This season was over a month ago for the Celtics. Now they can put a bow on it.


TODD:
One major flaw exists with your ideal scenario. Out of Charlotte, Washington, Cleveland, Orlando, Phoenix, New Orleans, Sacramento or Minnesota, who is Boston worse than even without Rondo? There is no possible way the Celtics end up with ping pong balls for anything higher than the ninth best chance at the top pick.

Hell, they might even stay in the playoffs without Rondo. With the return of Avery Bradley and the guard play of Jason Terry and Courtney Lee sure to improve with more minutes coming their way, the Celtics still may have the seventh best team in the eastern conference. This, of course, doesn't mean any playoff advancement is in their future and, as all NBA fans know, you want to be at the top or at the bottom. Treading in the middle of the league every year does nothing for you.

[Part Two]