Yankees Hope, or simply Smoke? - Part two

Yankees Hope, or simply Smoke? - Part two
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (9-6-13)

[Part one - Barring a miracle, the Yankees Stink]



TODD:
You and I are different. So what if Jeter, Mo and Pettitte all retire at the same time? I just don't understand the mindset. They should all retire if they are all washed up, have nothing left to offer their team, or are tired of playing. Otherwise, the whole coordinated goodbye is stupid. If Jeter is the Yankees' best option at shortstop in 2014 then I want him to come back. There's no nostalgia at stake anywhere for me. Thus, there's no final at-bats or last starts that I'm looking forward to.

Although, I must say, I kind of enjoy Rivera's trip around the country where he receives gifts from the other franchises. I don't know why this occurs. To say thanks for whooping their asses for years? To say good riddance? But it is quirky and funny anyway.

So this leaves me back at square one. The Yankees current mini-run not withstanding (they passed Baltimore for a hot second before falling behind the O's yet again), where are the young guys to root for? Even good teams should be able to bring up young prospects to acclimate into the major league squad. That is what September roster expansion is for. And New York seems to be near the bottom of the league as far as September call-up excitement is concerned. If we're not making the playoffs and we're not rebuilding with young guys, what are we doing?


DAN:
Mariano's league tour is totally unique and amazing! I can't recall a single player in any sport who got presents from the opposing teams during their final season. Now most players announce retirement after the season, so we don't know its their final year as they play it out. I love that Rivera said it up front, but has the present thing ever taken place before? The only chink in the armor here is Joe Girardi trying to convince him to play one more season. Then what? He's not getting gifts again next year if he comes back. More like tomatoes thrown at him for changing his mind. But you don't like goodbyes, so I'll move on.

We both agree this season has been super challenging, but I'm really proud of this season's Yankees, no matter how they finish. In New York, you're either great or you stink. So if this team misses the playoffs, then they definitely stink. But if they make the playoffs, unlike last season, it would be an accomplishment. We'd still say they stink if they got bounced in the Wildcard round, but whatever. I love the hope and have hope that they will pull this out. Playoffs!

I'm kind of lost on the whole young prospects thing, however. Robinson Cano was our last young stud who came up and dominated. It has been a rare thing for the Yankees over the last decade. So I'm not missing it per se, but I am pining for some glimpse into the future of the franchise. Every time a new guy took the field this season I got excited. None of them seemed to last more than a week or two, but I was still excited. It doesn't leave us in a good spot at all and I'm scared for next season. Last year I was scared for this season and rightfully so, considering how its played out. I'm having a real hard time seeing how next year will be any different, let alone better. If this year's team doesn't go down as a stinker, we are for sure due.

The Yankees stink, is that what's coming? It doesn't feel right and Brian Cashman needs to fix this. You're great with the sports management perspective. Give me two off season moves we can make? Get us some youth. And keep our salary down. Damn we're old and over paid.


TODD:
Whoa, you threw so many points at me here. First, it's not that I dislike goodbyes; I just don't care that they are occurring. If you tell me Andy Pettitte's last career start is tomorrow, then I'll simply ask who's taking his place in the rotation. For Rivera, the gift trip has been kooky and fun, but all I really care about is who'll be saving games next season if the organization doesn't believe in David Robertson.

I also disagree about the team's level of stink. Sure, missing the playoffs entirely will have a stench to it. But, considering the injuries, a playoff berth should be considered a successful season. Not all Yankees seasons are created equal. The bosses put a salary cap on this year's roster, handcuffing Brian Cashman and co. a bit. And with all the DL stints, Joe Girardi has had one of his best managerial seasons of his career. Making the playoffs would be a solid win for the 2013 club. Losing in the wild card round would put a damper on that of course, since it barely feels like you actually made the playoffs. It is like making the NCAA Tournament in college basketball but losing in the "first round" AKA the play-in games. You technically made it, but not really.

But whether they sneak into the playoffs here or not, next season is definitely starting to smell. The thing to remember though is that there will be no salary concerns. The one year plan was to get under the cap threshold to avoid the constant-cap-breaker clause or whatever it's called. If you get under once, the penalty for going back over is lessened substantially. So keeping the salary down is not an objective anymore. However, more relevantly, there are not many big name free agents hitting the market anyway. Teams are signing younger guys to longer contracts. But here goes, I'll give you a couple moves to improve the Yankees. Likelihood was not a requirement here, correct?

Move Number One: The New York Yankees trade Gary Sanchez, their top minor league prospect, to Tampa Bay for David Price. Everyone knows the Rays are looking to deal Price. He's eligible for arbitration in 2014 and they will not be able to afford whatever long-term deal he desires. Would they trade him inside the division? Probably not. Is Gary Sanchez even thought of as good enough anymore, after his disappointing 2013, to be the centerpiece of this deal? Also probably not. Would this keep our future salary down? Not in the least. Does it make our major league roster younger?...Why yes it does! One for four!

Move Number Two: Sorry, I only have one move. Seriously, things are looking grim. The Yankees have a few outfield prospects people are high on, but they are all at least two years away. Their pitching prospects have fizzled out and their major leaguers are all old and decrepit. Also, take a look at the top free agents coming up this off-season. Matt Garza and Jacoby Ellsbury (both 29) are the youngest guys. I don't see a logical move out there that gets the Yankees younger and better for 2014. I just don't see it.


DAN:
So you're saying there's hope for next season? ...... One positive, the team can't get more injured.

I will say this, I've grown to love the team this year even if I don't fully recognize it. From a pure logic stand point, I don't see how it can actually get worse. So if 2013 is the season of Rivera and over achieving, I'm thinking 2014 is the season of Jeter and one last title for the captain. We got this!

[If you missed Part one - Barring a miracle, the Yankees Stink]

Barring a miracle, the Yankees Stink - Part one

Barring a miracle, the Yankees Stink - Part one
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (9-2-13)



TODD:
This Yankees season is pretty much over. Barring a miraculous, Tampa Bay-esk comeback or a Red Sox/Braves-like September collapse, New York is not going to be busy come playoff time. They currently sit 8.5 games back in the AL East and 3.5 games back for the second wild card, behind Baltimore, tied with Cleveland and only two games ahead of Kansas City. Being tied or on par with the Indians and Royals is awful. It has not been our year.

Everyone knows about the injuries. Although a valid reason for the disappointment, it is not an excuse. Brian Cashman, the Steinbrenners and company admittedly skimped on the bench and even on the starters in an effort to get under the luxury tax threshold for 2014. Depending on how the Alex Rodriguez saga plays out, this should be accomplished rather effortlessly if A-Rod's $25 million is not paid out.

So while looking ahead to the next year, the Yankees were also trying to compete this season. It was not a rebuild or even a retool. It was a monetary decision accompanying a winning clubhouse. It...didn't work. If everyone had stayed healthy it would have been interesting to see how far this team could have gone with their pitching, but that is partly the point. It was a squad of talented, older players.

This outcome seemed likely back near the All-Star break, when the Yanks were still up near the top of the division but things looked cloudy. At that time, I surmised that they should deal Hiroki Kuroda for a young bat of some kind. Kuroda has been amazing, would have been one of the top starting pitchers on the market and is not a part of the Yankees' future at age 38. It made all the sense in the world, except for the part where the Yankees are sellers at the trade deadline. They could have twisted into a sell-high situation or trading SP depth for a bat. but as the weeks progressed, even the overabundance of starters dwindled as Michael Pineda had yet another setback, Andy Pettitte was terrible and CC Sabathia was down right mortal.

Losing for a better draft pick is not something done in baseball. Finishing with a worse record than Baltimore or Kansas City is not something done in New York. Without fantasy baseball, it is hard to feel excited about the rest of the season. Am I missing something? Is this how Mets fans feel all the time? At least they have two young stud starting pitchers to talk themselves into. Where are the Yankees prospects?


DAN:
Here's some food for thought; as of today the Yankees have an 11% chance of making the playoffs. For those unclear, eleven percent is basically ten percent which is a one in ten chance of happening. Yet even knowing that blatantly pessimistic statistic, the Yankees are a mere 3.5 games back in the Wildcard race. That is not out of reach by any stretch of the imagination and this season is FAR from over for the New York Yankees.

Saying all of that, the season has been an abomination from a management stand point. Yes, Joe Girardi has been incredible and the old dudes who were added to replace the injured old dudes have performed admirably. One could say they have been outstanding, yet we all knew it wouldn't be enough. It's as if the entire team embodied Mariano Rivera for the season. It's been a swan song of sorts. Flashes of past greatness, with old age ultimately rearing its ugly head. But in the end, this will be Mariano's season no matter what happens. Every game in September will be special because of him. But enough about the good, because there is way too much bad.

I'm with you on Kuroda. Trading him would have been a stellar move. His last three starts have been horrendous. This team isn't winning anything with Sabathia, Kuroda and Pettitte performing at a AAA level. I liked our chances in July because the pitching was consistent. I knew our hitting would pick up and the addition of Soriano has been tremendous. But I never imagined such a prolonged stretch of starting pitching mediocrity. Its nearly doomed the team. The Yankees are done. I haven't seen enough in the last week to convince me they can rattle off multiple stretches of 9 out of 10 wins. They had one such stretch and will probably grab another, but they need at least two more to be in the hunt. Everyone else is playing at too high of a level. (Note my obvious desire for the exact opposite to happen. Optimism!)

I am excited for the remainder of the year and its because its the end of an era. It will be the last time Mariano Rivera sets foot on the diamond and might even be Derek Jeter's final game as well. It will probably be Andy Pettitte's final game. Imagine, all three of the Yankee's big three ending their careers together. Its not that far fetched right now. I'm excited to see if the team can keep winning, but mainly I'm preparing to say goodbye. The only way the Yankees can be great once again is to let go of the past dynasty and begin a new one. One step at a time.

As for Mets fans, I think they feel infinitely worse. Don't bring us down to their level, its unfair to both fan bases. I believe Matt Harvey's injury may have sealed my argument, but the Mets are annually out of the race by August 1st. That has to hurt. Months of solid baseball rendered meaningless by a poor team. And this season their biggest star in the lineup got injured. David Wright was lost with little left to root for. Leave the Mets alone.


TODD:
I guess this is the main difference between you and I. You wax poetic about goodbyes and ending eras and I could not care less. I want victories and October baseball, not a stinky team honoring the past.

[Part two - Yankees Hope or simply Smoke?]

The Jeter-less Yankees: A new era in New York - Part two

The Jeter-less Yankees: A new era in New York - Part two
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (6-7-13)

[Part one - Derek Jeter: Gone or Just resting]



TODD:
Derek Jeter is retiring soon and the turnover on this roster was inevitable from an age standpoint, but Cano is in his early 30's. He was supposed to be the lynch pin connecting the 90's Yanks to the future Yanks. The young guys in the minors are still in the low minors; they are at least two more years away. If not Robinson Cano, who's team is this going forward? Don't say CC Sabathia; taking a look at his velocity this season, I'm afraid he may already be on the downside of his prime.


DAN:
I think Cano re-signs, but this is no sure thing. He will want a lot of money and other teams will be itching to pay it to him as well. But your question of 'what then' is nearsighted and a 'head in the sand' view of the future. Let's assume for a moment that Robinson Cano signs with a team other than the Yankees. Kuroda probably re-signs, Pettitte retires, Mariano Rivera retires and so does Derek Jeter because of injury more than anything. The only Yankee staples of the past five years will be Brett Gardner and Mark Teixeira, but neither man is the face of this franchise. Nor is CC Sabathia for that matter. I'll get to the man who has that honor in a moment. The team itself, the one on the field, will be brand new all over again, but just a great. This season has proven that a solid team can be assembled with limited financial resources. Now open up the books, clear them out, and things look much, much brighter. Without the big salaries of yesterday's star players, the Yankees have a lot of money to spend on what is shaping up to be an excellent free agent class for 2014. But who is the face of the franchise?

The face of the 2014 Jeter-less and Cano-less New York Yankees is their former catcher and World Series champion manager, Joe Girardi. He has been a Yankee since the titles of the late 90's. He managed the team to a title in 2009 and has proven his greatness with the lineup already in 2013. We have a great shot at the title this season, and after removing the team's star players, this Yankee team becomes its manager's ball club. Much like Joe Torre pushed the players of that 1996 team to greatness and stardom, Joe Girardi will wrestle the 2014 squad into a set of future stars of his own making. He embodies the team and he is the Yankees.

I can practically see you rolling your eyes over there, so what then, who do you have? Maybe Derek Jeter has another year in him, maybe he becomes a bench / hitting coach, but that doesn't make him the face of the franchise. If not Girardi, who's mug goes on the ticket stub?


TODD:
Yeah the Yankees will still be good with or without Cano. I know this. They have too many resources not to be at least pretty good. But Joe Girardi is no face of a franchise. Give me a break! If you ask an Atlanta fan who their favorite Brave was, does anyone answer by saying Bobby Cox? Managers in baseball are afterthoughts unless they make a glaring mistake. Unlike football or basketball where a gameplan can be administered, baseball coaches essentially just keep track of playing time and keeping everyone healthy/motivated. And you want to put THAT on your opening day tickets?

The reason I asked is because I don't see a clear answer unless New York makes a move. As you stated, assuming Rivera, Jeter and, for argument's sake, Cano are all gone, that leaves the aging Sabathia and Teixeira as the big boys. A-Rod will be around (unless the Yankees are able to void his contract after this HGH suspension business sorts itself out); whether that implies he's healthy or on the field or even given playing time is another story. He is still a very famous baseball player, but no NY Yankee fan wants to root for him as their guy.

I've heard idiotic sportscasters announce how the Yankees should "just trade for Giancarlo Stanton since the Marlins aren't going anywhere" as if Miami would simply give away their best player at the age of 23 just because they aren't winning very much this season. But a blockbuster trade is possible as a means to resupply the Major League club with a franchise star. New York does have a loaded crop of guys in the low minors who are probably two or three years away. Maybe Miami would be interested in a few.

We left ourselves with a lot of assumption-making but therein lies the groundwork for successful debating and predicting. The most realistic scenario sees Robbie Cano return after signing a near $200 million contract. The next most realistic possibility is New York playing the 2014 season behind Sabathia, Tex, and role players old and young. It's not fun nor exciting, just realistic.

But we are getting way ahead of ourselves. We're not even to the All-Star break of 2013 just yet and the Yanks are playing well. I sure hope Derek Jeter is ready to return next month. Lord knows we need an everyday shortstop who can at least hit his weight. The Captain has surprised us before; coming back on schedule now would be another pleasant surprise.


DAN:
Okay, okay so Joe Girardi is the opposite of a glamour pick, but he completely fits the "face of a franchise" mold. He's a former player for the Yankees, turned manager. That at least partially balances out the fact he isn't actually participating in the games. Plus, doesn't his stock sky rocket after this year, assuming things play out as good as or better than they have so far. Most years I agree, the manager is a "pat you on the butt" guy, but this season Joe is working some magic in the dugout.

As for Jeter surprising us all, if we've learned anything from his history then we're in for a show. He's always been full of surprises, exceeded expectations, pulled the Yankees by his teeth when necessary and taken the team to unbelievable heights. With Mo Rivera playing out of his mind, I'm pulling for a second half by Derek Jeter to match. Could we possibly have two historic players singing impressive swan songs together? Could they both go out on top? Damn I hope so!

[If you missed Part one - Derek Jeter: Gone or Just resting]