by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (10-11-13)
[Part one - NFL 1st quarter Power Rankings]
TODD:
Week five's games clearly changed some things, but at the quarter season mark there were some obvious trends forming. We both like Denver and New England as the favorites in the AFC. We both also like New Orleans and Seattle in the NFC, with Green Bay and Chicago right there as well. The big difference rests with how we feel about Indianapolis. You seem secure in their conference championship chances while I am not sure they are even a top dozen team, but am sure they will make the playoffs. The reason being, the AFC still stinks; I don't care what the numbers say!
We heard the record a week or so ago; it was everywhere. In games where AFC teams played NFC teams, the AFC was overwhelmingly crushing their peers. This went against what everyone expected prior to the year. But I say it is too soon to flip that story. The jury is still out on a number of the top AFC teams while some elites in the NFC are just getting their legs under themselves.
Seven of my top ten teams were from the NFC at the quarter mark, and that didn't even include San Francisco. Cincinnati, Miami, and the Colts...these teams still need to show me some things before I can go throw them in the top ten discussion. Indy may have done that week five with their convincing win over Seattle. That was certainly impressive. But the Dolphins and Bengals are still struggling mightily to get their respective offenses going. Perhaps I put too much stock in the high-powered offenses coming out of the NFC North, but I need a team to be able to score. What is really separating the Bengals from being the Carolina Panthers at this point other than fewer mistakes by their quarterback? They both have awesome defenses and offenses who are struggling to get the ball to their play makers. The only difference is Andy Dalton has eight total turnovers while Cam Newton has already turned the ball over... six times? Wait, so what the hell is the difference between the 3-2 Bengals and the 1-3 Panthers?
The Bengals won a close, low scoring game against an elite opponent in week five, 13-6 over New England. Carolina had that same game, but let Russell Wilson and Seattle slip away with a 12-7 victory. Both teams also lost a low scoring, close game. Cincinnati to Cleveland and Carolina to Arizona. In addition, both teams had impressive wins which ended up being less impressive after seeing how truly bad their opponent was: Cincy over Pittsburgh and Carolina over the Giants. Throw in Carolina's bye week and the only thing that separates these two teams is that late mess up against Buffalo that you touched on. Is that lone error really enough to garner Carolina terrible and Cincinnati awesome?
Of course that was one, single, cherry-picked example, but the NFC is on their way to rumbling by the AFC. I can see it now. Atlanta has been worse than people expected. So has San Fran. I expect both those teams to be around in December.
You're an AFC guy, but do you really think five of the ten best teams are from that conference? Kansas City is now 5-0 and I would STILL take a healthy Detroit Lions team over them, no question.
DAN:
Offense may rule the day in September and October, but what wins in December and through the playoffs is crushing defense and a lack of mistakes (turnovers and penalties). The AFC is leagues ahead of the NFC this season for that very simple reason. Sure, sure the NFC has high powered offenses in New Orleans, in Green Bay, in Detroit and in Atlanta, but none of those teams are beating their AFC contemporaries. Its not a coincidence that New England, Miami and the Jets all made Atlanta look silly. They are done. They can't stop anyone. New Orleans is my exception, the NFC team that will continue to get better. Otherwise its top heavy. Beyond Seattle, San Francisco, Chicago and New Orleans the rest of the conference is fresh meat for AFC opponents.
The AFC on the other hand is punching people in the face. Defense has brought Kansas City, Cleveland and the Jets back from the dead. Defense has completely masked New England's inability to move the ball on offense. And yes, Denver is putting up huge points, but its defense is why they are a juggernaut. After the Broncos, no one team stands out for me in the AFC anymore. I know its why you think they're all average. But that's where you're wrong! They are all damn good, better than anything the NFC has outside its top five.
Your Cincinnati and Carolina comparison is a bit of a joke. The Panthers consistently find ways to loose games. I don't care if they put up three great quarters week after week. They stink in the fourth and are average at best. The Bengals on the other hand have proven to be closers so far this season. They are a playoff team because the Ravens make too many mistakes and Cleveland is not quite there yet, but that's only an indication of the strength of the AFC. Our argument will come to a head this weekend when Cleveland faces Detroit. The numbers favor Detroit, it is still October and Cleveland lost its quarterback. But if Cleveland does win, can we both agree you're wrong?
There are a ton of AFC teams that are making waves, either winning with defense or offense depending on the week. I want to focus on the AFC East since its my home turf. By the way, I'm writing off the Bills now minus EJ Manuel. In the east there are three teams to be afraid of. New England, Miami and the Jets are all tough match ups for anyone in the NFC. Outside of facing the Saints, I fully expect all three teams to run the table on their NFC games this season. They are half way there. Moving beyond that division, you can't honestly tell me the Colts won't crush nine out of ten NFC opponents. They are looking more and more like a Super Bowl team now. Who is going to stop them? I'm not even sure Denver can. For me this AFC vs. NFC argument comes down to the 8-8 teams. We know both conferences have a strong top five, but take the teams ranked six through ten in the AFC and put them into the NFC... woah. The Giants wouldn't be the only winless team, that's all I'm saying.
TODD:
So if Cleveland wins, we agree I'm wrong, but if Detroit wins I don't get to be right? Typical AFC thought process. If we keep it close, that means we're better because people didn't expect it to be close. And besides, Calvin Johnson may miss another game and if that happens, all bets are off. A healthy Lions team is the one I'd take over anyone in the AFC North.
But why are we only concerned with the middle of the pack? I don't have any confidence in my 9th and 10th ranked NFC teams. They were the Panthers and Cardinals. The AFC has a better middle; I will give you that. But the NFC has more playoff-caliber teams.That is what matters after all.
Take the 49ers for example, and let's compare them to one of your precious AFC elites: the 5-0 Kansas City Chiefs. Thus far, the Chiefs have faced the Jaguars, Titans and 3/4 of the NFC East division. You're telling me San Fran wouldn't be 5-0 too with that schedule? Whereas the 49ers have already played the Packers, Seahawks, Colts, Texans and a division rival in the Rams. Through just a quarter of the season, most of a team's success comes down to their schedule and who they've played. You are too quick to react to that quarter in both directions: in favor of the AFC teams who've pounded weak opponents and against NFC teams who've struggled against tough competition.
Let's check back after week eight and see where everybody stands mid-season.
DAN:
Agreed, through merely four weeks the AFC looks like a beast. I'm not so ignorant as to anoint the Chiefs over the 49ers, but I do believe the power rankings speak to just that.
I'm very very curious to see if the teams outside the NFC top five can hold it together. Dallas and Atlanta come to mind and I would throw Detroit and the Packers in that group as well. Are they just average teams that score a lot, or can they actually compete for a championship? The AFC doesn't have this issue. The Chiefs, Dolphins and Browns are not title contenders. There is no question.
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