NFL Final Rankings: Its over now - Part two

NFL Final Rankings: Its over now - Part two
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (1-3-14)

[Part one - Final NFL Power Rankings]



TODD:
I still think Miami was the sixth best team in the AFC. I hated Baltimore's offense all year. I hated San Diego's defense all year. I hated Pittsburgh all year. There was nothing about Miami that screamed hatred...other than their epic, late-season collapse I suppose. You could have talked me into putting the Dallas Cowboys ahead of them maybe, but I wasn't going to drop them below any of those other AFC wild card contenders.

But, oddly enough, the Dolphins actually stayed pretty consistent for us all year. The first set of power rankings we did, after week four, we both had them ranked in the teens. (You had them 12th, which technically isn't in the teens, but you get the point.) There were many other teams that took giants leaps from the first week of October until now.

Pittsburgh and Philadelphia were very, very low on our original rankings. They both took weeks, even months in the case of Pittsburgh, to get their acts together. Arizona jumped especially high as well. We both had them in the bottom ten of the league after four games.

Meanwhile, Detroit and Atlanta were a couple of the teams near the top that dropped dramatically through the final three fourths of the season. I loved Detroit for much of the season, and was still confident in Atlanta turning things around early on. What is it that makes this league so hard to predict, even mid-season? It is unfathomable in any other sport to have standings flip after a quarter of the season has already been played. Is it strictly the case of small sample size and nothing else? After all, four games is just four games, no matter how short the regular season is. Anyone can look amazing (or dreadful) in a string of four games. Cough cough... Geno Smith... cough.


DAN:
At least Geno Smith was a rookie... cough cough... Eli Manning his entire career... cough. Rookies often play up and down as they first surprise defenses, then get bombarded as everyone has "figured them out." The key barometer in my opinion is how they finish off the season. Does the rookie cave and continue to make mistakes, or does he right the ship, slow down and play solid football? Geno had zero turnovers in his final two games and led the league (along with Cam Newton) in rushing touchdowns. I see a lot more Cam Newton in him than I see Jay Cutler. As for the league at large, it was as up and down as Geno Smith was this season.

The Detroit Lions are probably my biggest surprise and disappointment of the season. I had them ranked 11th at the four game mark, then 10th after eight games, still at 15th after twelve games, and finally all the way down to 21st after the season's final weekend. Woah. Counter that with Arizona's rise from 30th up to 9th in my rankings and its no wonder the NFL is so damn popular every week of the season.

The four game mark is an obvious trap and no team is truly known after only a quarter of the season. With the exception of our elite quarterbacks, every other team is still getting its proverbial house in order. But at the halfway point? I was so wrong on the Eagles at 29th and the Titans at 14th its not even funny. But you know what is funny?

I had the top two teams in the league (both finishing at 13-3) in my top three power rankings the entire season! Both Denver and Seattle have been at the top of my rankings from week one through week seventeen. And both the Broncos and Seahawks sit atop their respective conferences. This league may surprise us, it may have parity, but the top was the top this season. It was actually straight forward. I'm leaning towards an outlier in regards to this season's top five predictability. Fact or Fiction?


TODD:
It will all depend on how they perform in the playoffs. That's the ultimate test of a power rank.

By the way, you should get that cough checked out.

[If you missed Part one - Final NFL Power Rankings]

Final NFL Power Rankings: We were right - Part one

Final NFL Power Rankings: We were right - Part one
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (12-30-13)



The NFL season is over with the end reminding us of how things began. The Rankings may have changed all the way, but the top ten did not. Seesaw Sports has its Final NFL power rankings on Black Monday.

Recap: [1st Quarter Power Rankings]
Recap: [2nd Quarter Power Rankings]
Recap: [3rd Quarter Power Rankings]



Final Power Rankings:
[Numbers in parentheses equal difference in rank from Todd: i.e (+1) equals one spot higher]

TODD                                                     DAN
32. Washington Redskins                      Houston Texans (-1)
31. Houston Texans                               Washington Redskins (+1)
30. Oakland Raiders                              Jacksonville Jaguars (-1)
29. Jacksonville Jaguars                       Oakland Raiders (+1)
28. Atlanta Falcons                               Cleveland Browns (-1)
27. Cleveland Browns                           Atlanta Falcons (+1)
26. Buffalo Bills                                     Tennessee Titans (-3)
25. Minnesota Vikings                           Minnesota Vikings (0)
24. New York Giants                             Buffalo Bills (+2)
23. Tennessee Titans                            Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1)
22. Tampa Bay Buccaneers                  New York Giants (+2)
21. St. Louis Rams                                Detroit Lions (-2)
20. New York Jets                                 St. Louis Rams (+1)
19. Detroit Lions                                    Miami Dolphins (-5)
18. Pittsburgh Steelers                          Baltimore Ravens (-2)
17. Dallas Cowboys                              Pittsburgh Steelers (+1)
16. Baltimore Ravens                           New York Jets (+4)
15. San Diego Chargers                       San Diego Chargers (0)
14. Miami Dolphins                               Dallas Cowboys (+3)
13. Chicago Bears                                Chicago Bears (0)
12. Indianapolis Colts                           Indianapolis Colts (0)
11. Philadelphia Eagles                        Philadelphia Eagles (0)
10. Arizona Cardinals                           Green Bay Packers (-1)
9. Green Bay Packers                           Arizona Cardinals (+1)
8. New Orleans Saints                          New Orleans Saints (0)
7. Cincinnati Bengals                            Cincinnati Bengals (0)
6. New England Patriots                       San Francisco 49ers (-3)
5. Kansas City Chiefs                           Kansas City Chiefs (0)
4. Carolina Panthers                             New England Patriots (+2)
3. San Francisco 49ers                         Seattle Seahawks (-1)
2. Seattle Seahawks                             Carolina Panthers (+2)
1. Denver Broncos                                Denver Broncos (0)




Comments from the Rankings: 

TODD:
Obviously getting into the playoffs is a team's top priority. Thus, the best sixteen teams should be the sixteen playoff teams. However, I don't believe that is actually the case. The Arizona Cardinals had a fantastic year. They are certainly better than the sixth seed from the AFC, if not the sixth seed from their own conference.

Also, all divisions are not created equal. I will take the Kansas City Chiefs over all but three division winners in football. In regards to San Francisco, I like them even more. I say they are a top three team even though they didn't win their division.

As for tiers to finish out the season, the top six teams are slightly ahead of the rest of the league. From there, tier two contains teams seven through seventeen. These were all playoff or borderline playoff teams, but, other than Indianapolis, no one in this group felt comfortable in their playoff admission before the season's final game.

Tier three are teams who can pull an upset but don't bring their A game consistently. That would be everyone from Pittsburgh to Cleveland. The bottom five teams are a step below. It is hard to fathom that the Houston Texans would be able to lose fourteen consecutive ballgames. It is also slightly hilarious that I would take them over Washington right now if the two teams played each other.

And oh yeah, Washington doesn't have its own 2014 first round draft pick. Whoops.


DAN:
Its pretty incredible how close our rankings are to one another, and yet that's not the story here. I'm staring at two teams in the top five that didn't even sniff the postseason last year. The Chiefs and Panthers epitomized the NFL and hope for teams ranked twenty two or lower.

I love your tiers, with a BIG exception in Tier two. Also, my bottom tier has way more than five teams.

We have the exact same teams in our bottom eleven, Tier four in my opinion, with a slightly different order that couldn't matter any less. Those teams suck and we all know it.

Tier three needs to be teams ranked twenty one to sixteen. All average teams with a big win at some point this season, but the playoffs were a long shot and its obvious why. I'm fine with the Cowboys in this tier, but not at the expense of boosting the Dolphins to an unreasonable level.

Teams ranked fifteen up to seven are in Tier two, but you can NOT put Miami in this discussion. This tier is playoff teams and playoff caliber teams. The Cowboys, with Tony Romo, and the Bears are both playoff teams in the AFC. Same with Arizona, who got robbed this season. No one else belongs.

We agree completely on our top Tier one teams, ranked seven and above. However, you're crazy if you think the Patriots aren't better than San Francisco. I get it, I do, you see those gaudy NFC victories that San Fran put up in the final month and look to New England who barely squeaked by Houston and even lost to Miami. Don't be fooled, that team was hurting, but the team that stands today with a first round bye is top five in the league.

[Part two - How the NFL changed]

NFL 3rd Quarter: 12 weeks of Confusion - Part one

NFL 3rd Quarter: 12 weeks of Confusion - Part one

by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (11-25-13)

Twelve weeks of the NFL season have transpired, with lots of room for confusion. The top five and bottom five are evident, with a slop of mediocrity everywhere else. Its the perfect time for us at Seesaw Sports to update our power rankings. Both leagues have one playoff spot completely up for grabs, but does it even matter? Will that final team be this year's late season Cinderella, or will everyone's preseason picks play out come playoff time? With three quarters of the season complete, our NFL debate rages on.

Recap: [1st Quarter Power Rankings]

Recap: [2nd Quarter Power Rankings]

3rd Quarter Power Rankings:

[Numbers in parentheses equal difference in rank from Todd: i.e (+1) equals one spot higher]


TODD                                DAN

32. Houston                      Houston (0)               

31. Jacksonville                Jacksonville (0)                          

30. Atlanta                         Atlanta (0)             

29. Tampa Bay                  Minnesota (-2)                 

28. Washington                 Tampa Bay (+1)                

27. Minnesota                   Oakland (-3)                          

26. Cleveland                   Cleveland (0)                           

25. Buffalo                        Washington (+3)           

24. Oakland                      New York Giants (-1)                             

23. New York Giants         Buffalo (+2)                                          

22. New York Jets             New York Jets (0)

21. Miami                          Miami (0) 

20. St. Louis                      Tennessee (-1)

19. Tennessee                   Philadelphia (-6)

18. Chicago                       Pittsburgh (-2)

17. Baltimore                      Chicago (+1)

16. Pittsburgh                    Green Bay (-1)    

15. Green Bay                    Detroit (-4)

14. Indianapolis                  St. Louis (+6)         

13. Philadelphia                  Baltimore (+4) 

12. San Diego                     Cincinnati (-7)

11. Detroit                           Dallas (-2)

10. Arizona                         Indianapolis (+4)

9. Dallas                             San Diego (+3)

8. Kansas City                    San Francisco (-1)

7. San Francisco                 Arizona (+3)      

6. Carolina                          Carolina (0)

5. Cincinnati                        New Orleans (-3)

4. New England                   Kansas City (+4)    

3. Seattle                             Denver (-2)

2. New Orleans                   New England (+2)

1. Denver                            Seattle (+2)

Comments from the rankings:

TODD:
Somehow, as inexplicable as it is, the more games we get as evidence, the harder this list is to make.

Rather than the picture clearing up, it is becoming more muddled. Some teams have made giant leaps in my mind since the season's halfway mark. Others have plummeted just as far. Yet the most evident point here is the tiers that have developed. The top three teams are Tier A, the elites. Then teams four through 18 or 19 are in a large group together. How much really separates Cincinnati at five from Chicago at 18? In my mind, not much.

Tier C is everyone else through Tampa Bay. We have to give Atlanta, Jacksonville and Houston their own fourth tier though, for being just awful. The funny part is, how scary would the Texans or Falcons be next year if they end up with the first pick in the draft? That's the NFL for you!


DAN:
Things have certainly gotten more confusing, but I believe you are the one who is truly confused. Your tiers are headed in the right direction, but limiting the top to only three teams is stupid. To leave out New England from Tier A, who is getting better each week and just beat Denver, is crazy talk! Tier A is my top five teams. Putting Cincinnati ahead of the Chiefs is equally as ridiculous. But you'll notice I have them way down at twelve. They are barely better than Baltimore at this point.

I don't like putting Dallas at eleven, but I felt no potential division winner should be any lower. Although they are probably worse than the Bengals, Ravens and maybe even the Rams at this point.

If Tier A is my top five, then Tier B is slots six to nine. These two tiers are our playoff teams, our contenders and teams with a shot at making noise in the post season. After this its a wash. I like the four tier system, so Tier C is every team from ten to twenty six. There is not much separating the Browns from the Colts or Cowboys right now. And in Tier D we have our bottom four teams, which should be called Tier P for poop. They stink, are awful, and should be easy wins for any opponent. Right Green Bay? Minnesota and Tampa Bay are probably D+ or C- teams, but who cares. The fun is in my Tier B, which has a modest four teams as compared to your insane fifteen teams.

You can't honestly tell me that Carolina and New England are on par with Green Bay or the Eagles. No way! Unless Aaron Rodgers comes back, both those teams are finishing at 8-8 with the likes of the Jets and Rams (if they are lucky).

[Part two - Movers and Shakers]

 

NFL 2nd Quarter: Playoffs! In or Out - Part two

NFL 2nd Quarter: Playoffs! In or Out - Part two
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (11-1-13)

[Part one - The 8 game story (Power Rankings)]



TODD:
After that Seattle performance on Monday night, I would certainly consider moving the Seahawks below those AFC squads you mentioned. Their offense looked pitiful and relying on the return of Percy Harvin to change that seems shortsighted. However, I would also bump St. Louis up a few spots. Their defensive line is terrifying, like Super Bowl New York Giants level terrifying. It is sad that Bradford is gone; I would have liked to see how good this team could have been.

Perhaps we will touch on this more in our injury discussion next week, but with Bradford, Cutler, and even the Brian Hoyer injury changing the entire ceiling of a team, it is disappointing that so much depends on the health of just one man. Now I more clearly understand why announcers always freak out at quarterbacks when they don't slide correctly or don't scamper out of bounds. I guess you could throw Buffalo and Tennessee in that group as well.

But as for our second half NFL outlook, as you mentioned, the top seems set. We both like Denver, KC, New England, Indy and Cincinnati in the AFC with little competition for those five spots. The NFC, in my mind, is also just as set for the top five with New Orleans, Seattle, San Fran, Green Bay and Detroit. With the Jay Cutler injury and the guys going down on that Chicago defense, they are out and I believe the only NFC playoff spot still up for grabs is the NFC East division winner. Obviously Dallas has the head start there, but I am not willing to rule out Washington or even the Giants quite yet.

You have Green Bay, Carolina, Chicago, Detroit and Dallas all lumped together. Who do you have making the playoffs out of those? Obviously you feel stronger about Dallas taking the East, so where are your NFC wild cards? I like Carolina even more than you but to me, they are just the odd team out this season.

And who gets that last spot in the AFC? It is pretty wide open. You like the AFC East teams A LOT more than I do. Did you not watch any games this past Sunday? Specifically the Jets and Bills games? They were bloodbaths. Last weekend soured me to that whole division, even New England being an elite playoff squad. I don't know how you can claim the Jets or Dolphins would beat the Redskins or Falcons or even Browns when everyone is playing well. You're backing horses on the decline. The Wild Card front runners have to be either San Diego, Baltimore or Tennessee at this point.


DAN:
It certainly is pretty glaring this season, how a single injury can derail a team. But this is nothing new. Its why the NFL mantra over the past five plus years has been to make it to Thanksgiving above .500 and get lucky down the stretch. This plays a huge factor into my power rankings. The teams that have already found their bad luck won't be competing much come weeks 15 to 17.

We agree that only one AFC playoff spot is readily available. I'm still not sold completely on the Bengals. They are one Jay Cutler like injury away from being on the outside, looking in. Sure, sure, they blew the Jets off the field on Sunday, but their offense is AJ Green heavy and needs Dalton to throw it to him. I'm worried. That final spot is anyone's to have at this point. I do like both Miami and the Jets a lot, mainly because their defenses are strong. Both teams are excellent when good and down right unwatchable when bad. They need to find consistency over the next month, or they will get beat out by the likes of San Diego. I'm pretty low on the Browns and Ravens. I just don't see much fire on a consistent basis. And Tennessee just doesn't scare me. If I had to pick one team to grab the final spot as of today, I'd take San Diego. But the Jets are a close second. They have the most penalties in the league. You clean up that mess and watch out.

In the NFC things got shakier on Monday night. But only slightly. Much like the Jets on Sunday, Seattle chose not to show up for the game. Unlike the Jets, they are actually a dominant team good enough to win in spite of themselves. We agree on the top five in the conference, but I disagree with you on the NFC East. Did you watch Dallas play Detroit? Sure, the Cowboys find lots of ways to lose games on a consistent basis. But they are a damn good team on offense, much better than those other 'teams' in the east division. Not to put down your Giants, but the hole they find themselves in is too deep. Its not happening. So where does that leave us? I actually think, with how Seattle performed on Monday night, the wildcard spots are going to be a dog fight. Don't count out Chicago, their defense puts up too many points. The Bears will be fighting with Green Bay and Detroit for the division. Throw Seattle and Carolina in there and we have ourselves some real drama. I do think Carolina falls short and Detroit actually takes the division from Green Bay and the Bears. Who's in? Green Bay and Seattle, as expected. Just don't rule out some week 17, edge of your seat matchups just yet.

The season thus far has surprised me pleasantly. Teams I wanted to be better, like Detroit and Carolina and the Jets, are actually showing signs of actual power. And teams I plainly don't care for, like the Eagles and Buffalo Bills, are wallowing in a sea of self pity. Thank you NFL.


TODD:
Maybe you're right about me being too hard on Dallas. But I get a bit of a feeling about them that you had about Carolina. They just seem to lose late. And until they are mathematically eliminated, I will never count out the Giants. They are the most unpredictable team in football, and have been for close to a decade now. Anytime they are counted on, they fail; and anytime they are counted out, they surprise. So I'm not ready to give the NFC East to Dallas, even if they are the most talented team in that division.

I am with you though on savoring the sweet failure of Philadelphia. It tastes good.


DAN:
Tastes good like Pumpkin beer. Very very good.

[If you missed Part one - The 8 game battle (Power Rankings)]

NFL 2nd Quarter: The eight game Battle - Part one

NFL 2nd Quarter: The eight game Battle - Part one
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (10-28-13)

Eight games of the NFL season are in the books, the perfect time for us at Seesaw Sports to update our power rankings. Posers were exposed, studs fell off and the battle for NFL supremacy is anyone's to win. Yet the playoff picture has become crystal clear since our initial rankings in week four, so with half the season complete, how many teams are actually in the hunt?

Recap: [1st Quarter Power Rankings]

2nd Quarter Power Rankings:

[Numbers in parentheses equal difference in rank from Todd: i.e (+1) equals one spot higher]


TODD                                DAN

32. Jacksonville                 Jacksonville (0)               

31. Minnesota                    Tampa Bay (-1)                 

30. Tampa Bay                   Minnesota (+1)             

29. Philadelphia                 Philadelphia (0)             

28. St. Louis                       New York Giants (-6)      

27. Oakland                       St. Louis (+1)                  

26. Houston                       Oakland (+1)                    

25. New York Jets              Houston (+1)                  

24. Buffalo                          Buffalo (0)                       

23. Miami                           Atlanta (-2)                       

22. New York Giants          Cleveland (-2)

21. Atlanta                          Washington (-2)

20. Cleveland                     Pittsburgh (-2)

19. Washington                  Arizona (-4)

18. Pittsburgh                     Miami (+5)

17. Tennessee                    New York Jets (+8)

16. Chicago                        San Diego (-3)

15. Arizona                         Baltimore (-3)

14. Dallas                           Tennessee (+3)

13. San Diego                    Carolina (-2)

12. Baltimore                      Chicago (+4)

11. Carolina                        Dallas (+3)

10. New England                Detroit (-1)

9. Detroit                             Green Bay (-5)

8. Indianapolis                    Cincinnati (-1)

7. Cincinnati                       New England (+3)

6. Kansas City                    New Orleans (-4)

5. San Francisco                Kansas City (+1)

4. Green Bay                      Indianapolis (+4)

3. Seattle                            San Francisco (+2)

2. New Orleans                  Seattle (+1)

1. Denver                           Denver (0)

Comments from the rankings:

TODD:
We're halfway through the NFL season and a lot has changed in just four weeks. There are now three distinct groups in the rankings:

- The bottom, teams ranked 32-30, are clearly terrible. I wouldn't pick the Jaguars, Vikings, or Buccaneers to beat anyone else in the league under any circumstances. I know they won't all go winless but any wins they grab will be upsets.

- The top 10 is clearly established. I know the playoffs are 12 teams, so those final two spots are still up for grabs, but the top 10 teams seem set on making it. In related news, it took me a long while to decide who was the 11th best team in the NFL. I settled on Carolina, whose defense has been amazing all year, but now their offense is final clicking.

- The rest of the league, teams ranked 11-29, are pretty darn close, as funny as it sounds. There is certainly very little separating those teams at 29,28,27 from Tennessee or Pittsburgh at 18. We actually just saw this yesterday as Oakland toppled the Steelers.

 A couple extraneous thoughts, all seemingly related to quarterbacks:

- Poor LeSean McCoy; that Philly QB situation is a MESS.
- St. Louis would be higher if Bradford hadn't gone down; their ranking is not totally reflective of their performance thus far.
- The Giants are rolling!...with two of the worst wins I have ever seen in my lifetime; but they are two wins nonetheless and that division is still up for grabs.
- Chicago is in a similar boat to St. Louis; their ranking reflects the current Cutler injury, not how they've played this season
- If the New England Patriots had a quarterback who could throw an accurate pass, there's no telling how good they could be!

Even though Kansas City has the best record in the league, and the best defense according to the numbers, I still don't trust them against the other heavy hitters. I'd take the four big NFC teams over them and still like Denver a little more. Of course, if Seattle loses tonight...


DAN:
I don't see much having changed at all in the last four weeks, besides the masses really separating themselves. The bottom of the barrel sunk lower and the top ten just punched their playoff tickets a little more firmly. Otherwise, I see four groups here. That middle pack you lumped together is actually two groups now after eight weeks, teams with hope and teams that suck.

The four groups in my rankings:

- The bottom, which extends all the way to team number 28 and your New York Giants. The teams ranked 32 to 28 all stink, are having horrific seasons, and can't be trusted to win, period. I know you are dumping on St. Louis because they lost their QB, but that's not a bad team. They belong in our next group.

- The ones that suck, these are teams ranked 27 to 21. None of these teams are making the playoffs. Their seasons are over. You placed Miami and the Jets in this area of your rankings, but both those teams still have a shot and are way better, when they are playing well, than the likes of Cleveland, Washington and Atlanta who aren't breaking .500 this season.

- The ones with hope, these are teams ranked 20 to 12. All of these teams are in the hunt and are one winning streak or losing streak away from keeping hope alive or falling into the 'suck' category. Pittsburgh may have closed their door by losing to Oakland, but something tells me not to count out the Steelers just yet. Every other team has show flashes of greatness and I still like Chicago even with Cutler side lined for several weeks.

- The top, teams in the top ten of my rankings.  And yes I realize I skipped over the Cowboys at number 11. They seem to have a hold on the NFC East by default, being better than everyone else in that division, but still managing to suck on a level that doesn't befit a top ten team.

We must both be NFL geniuses, or this season is such an open book its ridiculous, because our top ten contains the exact same teams.  We do disagree on where four teams fall. I don't like Green Bay nearly as much as you. Same goes for New Orleans, who is simply out scoring people more than the league wants to admit.  I'm also much higher on Indianapolis and New England, two teams with stellar QB play that has held things together. I think the Colts can withstand the loss of Reggie Wayne, but I do worry the Patriots have lost one too many players on defense.

[Part two - Playoffs! In or out]

NFL 1st quarter, AFC vs NFC - Part two

NFL 1st quarter, AFC vs NFC - Part two
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (10-11-13)

[Part one - NFL 1st quarter Power Rankings]



TODD:
Week five's games clearly changed some things, but at the quarter season mark there were some obvious trends forming. We both like Denver and New England as the favorites in the AFC. We both also like New Orleans and Seattle in the NFC, with Green Bay and Chicago right there as well. The big difference rests with how we feel about Indianapolis. You seem secure in their conference championship chances while I am not sure they are even a top dozen team, but am sure they will make the playoffs. The reason being, the AFC still stinks; I don't care what the numbers say!

We heard the record a week or so ago; it was everywhere. In games where AFC teams played NFC teams, the AFC was overwhelmingly crushing their peers. This went against what everyone expected prior to the year. But I say it is too soon to flip that story. The jury is still out on a number of the top AFC teams while some elites in the NFC are just getting their legs under themselves.

Seven of my top ten teams were from the NFC at the quarter mark, and that didn't even include San Francisco. Cincinnati, Miami, and the Colts...these teams still need to show me some things before I can go throw them in the top ten discussion. Indy may have done that week five with their convincing win over Seattle. That was certainly impressive. But the Dolphins and Bengals are still struggling mightily to get their respective offenses going. Perhaps I put too much stock in the high-powered offenses coming out of the NFC North, but I need a team to be able to score. What is really separating the Bengals from being the Carolina Panthers at this point other than fewer mistakes by their quarterback? They both have awesome defenses and offenses who are struggling to get the ball to their play makers. The only difference is Andy Dalton has eight total turnovers while Cam Newton has already turned the ball over... six times? Wait, so what the hell is the difference between the 3-2 Bengals and the 1-3 Panthers?

The Bengals won a close, low scoring game against an elite opponent in week five, 13-6 over New England. Carolina had that same game, but let Russell Wilson and Seattle slip away with a 12-7 victory. Both teams also lost a low scoring, close game. Cincinnati to Cleveland and Carolina to Arizona. In addition, both teams had impressive wins which ended up being less impressive after seeing how truly bad their opponent was: Cincy over Pittsburgh and Carolina over the Giants. Throw in Carolina's bye week and the only thing that separates these two teams is that late mess up against Buffalo that you touched on. Is that lone error really enough to garner Carolina terrible and Cincinnati awesome?

Of course that was one, single, cherry-picked example, but the NFC is on their way to rumbling by the AFC. I can see it now. Atlanta has been worse than people expected. So has San Fran. I expect both those teams to be around in December.

You're an AFC guy, but do you really think five of the ten best teams are from that conference? Kansas City is now 5-0 and I would STILL take a healthy Detroit Lions team over them, no question.


DAN:
Offense may rule the day in September and October, but what wins in December and through the playoffs is crushing defense and a lack of mistakes (turnovers and penalties). The AFC is leagues ahead of the NFC this season for that very simple reason. Sure, sure the NFC has high powered offenses in New Orleans, in Green Bay, in Detroit and in Atlanta, but none of those teams are beating their AFC contemporaries. Its not a coincidence that New England, Miami and the Jets all made Atlanta look silly. They are done. They can't stop anyone. New Orleans is my exception, the NFC team that will continue to get better. Otherwise its top heavy. Beyond Seattle, San Francisco, Chicago and New Orleans the rest of the conference is fresh meat for AFC opponents.

The AFC on the other hand is punching people in the face. Defense has brought Kansas City, Cleveland and the Jets back from the dead. Defense has completely masked New England's inability to move the ball on offense. And yes, Denver is putting up huge points, but its defense is why they are a juggernaut. After the Broncos, no one team stands out for me in the AFC anymore. I know its why you think they're all average. But that's where you're wrong! They are all damn good, better than anything the NFC has outside its top five.

Your Cincinnati and Carolina comparison is a bit of a joke. The Panthers consistently find ways to loose games. I don't care if they put up three great quarters week after week. They stink in the fourth and are average at best. The Bengals on the other hand have proven to be closers so far this season. They are a playoff team because the Ravens make too many mistakes and Cleveland is not quite there yet, but that's only an indication of the strength of the AFC. Our argument will come to a head this weekend when Cleveland faces Detroit. The numbers favor Detroit, it is still October and Cleveland lost its quarterback. But if Cleveland does win, can we both agree you're wrong?

There are a ton of AFC teams that are making waves, either winning with defense or offense depending on the week. I want to focus on the AFC East since its my home turf. By the way, I'm writing off the Bills now minus EJ Manuel. In the east there are three teams to be afraid of. New England, Miami and the Jets are all tough match ups for anyone in the NFC. Outside of facing the Saints, I fully expect all three teams to run the table on their NFC games this season. They are half way there. Moving beyond that division, you can't honestly tell me the Colts won't crush nine out of ten NFC opponents. They are looking more and more like a Super Bowl team now. Who is going to stop them? I'm not even sure Denver can. For me this AFC vs. NFC argument comes down to the 8-8 teams. We know both conferences have a strong top five, but take the teams ranked six through ten in the AFC and put them into the NFC... woah. The Giants wouldn't be the only winless team, that's all I'm saying.


TODD:
So if Cleveland wins, we agree I'm wrong, but if Detroit wins I don't get to be right? Typical AFC thought process. If we keep it close, that means we're better because people didn't expect it to be close. And besides, Calvin Johnson may miss another game and if that happens, all bets are off. A healthy Lions team is the one I'd take over anyone in the AFC North.

But why are we only concerned with the middle of the pack? I don't have any confidence in my 9th and 10th ranked NFC teams. They were the Panthers and Cardinals. The AFC has a better middle; I will give you that. But the NFC has more playoff-caliber teams.That is what matters after all.

Take the 49ers for example, and let's compare them to one of your precious AFC elites: the 5-0 Kansas City Chiefs. Thus far, the Chiefs have faced the Jaguars, Titans and 3/4 of the NFC East division. You're telling me San Fran wouldn't be 5-0 too with that schedule? Whereas the 49ers have already played the Packers, Seahawks, Colts, Texans and a division rival in the Rams. Through just a quarter of the season, most of a team's success comes down to their schedule and who they've played. You are too quick to react to that quarter in both directions: in favor of the AFC teams who've pounded weak opponents and against NFC teams who've struggled against tough competition.

Let's check back after week eight and see where everybody stands mid-season.


DAN:
Agreed, through merely four weeks the AFC looks like a beast. I'm not so ignorant as to anoint the Chiefs over the 49ers, but I do believe the power rankings speak to just that.

I'm very very curious to see if the teams outside the NFC top five can hold it together. Dallas and Atlanta come to mind and I would throw Detroit and the Packers in that group as well. Are they just average teams that score a lot, or can they actually compete for a championship? The AFC doesn't have this issue. The Chiefs, Dolphins and Browns are not title contenders. There is no question.

[If you missed Part one - NFL 1st quarter Power Rankings]