NFL 1st quarter, AFC vs NFC - Part two

NFL 1st quarter, AFC vs NFC - Part two
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (10-11-13)

[Part one - NFL 1st quarter Power Rankings]



TODD:
Week five's games clearly changed some things, but at the quarter season mark there were some obvious trends forming. We both like Denver and New England as the favorites in the AFC. We both also like New Orleans and Seattle in the NFC, with Green Bay and Chicago right there as well. The big difference rests with how we feel about Indianapolis. You seem secure in their conference championship chances while I am not sure they are even a top dozen team, but am sure they will make the playoffs. The reason being, the AFC still stinks; I don't care what the numbers say!

We heard the record a week or so ago; it was everywhere. In games where AFC teams played NFC teams, the AFC was overwhelmingly crushing their peers. This went against what everyone expected prior to the year. But I say it is too soon to flip that story. The jury is still out on a number of the top AFC teams while some elites in the NFC are just getting their legs under themselves.

Seven of my top ten teams were from the NFC at the quarter mark, and that didn't even include San Francisco. Cincinnati, Miami, and the Colts...these teams still need to show me some things before I can go throw them in the top ten discussion. Indy may have done that week five with their convincing win over Seattle. That was certainly impressive. But the Dolphins and Bengals are still struggling mightily to get their respective offenses going. Perhaps I put too much stock in the high-powered offenses coming out of the NFC North, but I need a team to be able to score. What is really separating the Bengals from being the Carolina Panthers at this point other than fewer mistakes by their quarterback? They both have awesome defenses and offenses who are struggling to get the ball to their play makers. The only difference is Andy Dalton has eight total turnovers while Cam Newton has already turned the ball over... six times? Wait, so what the hell is the difference between the 3-2 Bengals and the 1-3 Panthers?

The Bengals won a close, low scoring game against an elite opponent in week five, 13-6 over New England. Carolina had that same game, but let Russell Wilson and Seattle slip away with a 12-7 victory. Both teams also lost a low scoring, close game. Cincinnati to Cleveland and Carolina to Arizona. In addition, both teams had impressive wins which ended up being less impressive after seeing how truly bad their opponent was: Cincy over Pittsburgh and Carolina over the Giants. Throw in Carolina's bye week and the only thing that separates these two teams is that late mess up against Buffalo that you touched on. Is that lone error really enough to garner Carolina terrible and Cincinnati awesome?

Of course that was one, single, cherry-picked example, but the NFC is on their way to rumbling by the AFC. I can see it now. Atlanta has been worse than people expected. So has San Fran. I expect both those teams to be around in December.

You're an AFC guy, but do you really think five of the ten best teams are from that conference? Kansas City is now 5-0 and I would STILL take a healthy Detroit Lions team over them, no question.


DAN:
Offense may rule the day in September and October, but what wins in December and through the playoffs is crushing defense and a lack of mistakes (turnovers and penalties). The AFC is leagues ahead of the NFC this season for that very simple reason. Sure, sure the NFC has high powered offenses in New Orleans, in Green Bay, in Detroit and in Atlanta, but none of those teams are beating their AFC contemporaries. Its not a coincidence that New England, Miami and the Jets all made Atlanta look silly. They are done. They can't stop anyone. New Orleans is my exception, the NFC team that will continue to get better. Otherwise its top heavy. Beyond Seattle, San Francisco, Chicago and New Orleans the rest of the conference is fresh meat for AFC opponents.

The AFC on the other hand is punching people in the face. Defense has brought Kansas City, Cleveland and the Jets back from the dead. Defense has completely masked New England's inability to move the ball on offense. And yes, Denver is putting up huge points, but its defense is why they are a juggernaut. After the Broncos, no one team stands out for me in the AFC anymore. I know its why you think they're all average. But that's where you're wrong! They are all damn good, better than anything the NFC has outside its top five.

Your Cincinnati and Carolina comparison is a bit of a joke. The Panthers consistently find ways to loose games. I don't care if they put up three great quarters week after week. They stink in the fourth and are average at best. The Bengals on the other hand have proven to be closers so far this season. They are a playoff team because the Ravens make too many mistakes and Cleveland is not quite there yet, but that's only an indication of the strength of the AFC. Our argument will come to a head this weekend when Cleveland faces Detroit. The numbers favor Detroit, it is still October and Cleveland lost its quarterback. But if Cleveland does win, can we both agree you're wrong?

There are a ton of AFC teams that are making waves, either winning with defense or offense depending on the week. I want to focus on the AFC East since its my home turf. By the way, I'm writing off the Bills now minus EJ Manuel. In the east there are three teams to be afraid of. New England, Miami and the Jets are all tough match ups for anyone in the NFC. Outside of facing the Saints, I fully expect all three teams to run the table on their NFC games this season. They are half way there. Moving beyond that division, you can't honestly tell me the Colts won't crush nine out of ten NFC opponents. They are looking more and more like a Super Bowl team now. Who is going to stop them? I'm not even sure Denver can. For me this AFC vs. NFC argument comes down to the 8-8 teams. We know both conferences have a strong top five, but take the teams ranked six through ten in the AFC and put them into the NFC... woah. The Giants wouldn't be the only winless team, that's all I'm saying.


TODD:
So if Cleveland wins, we agree I'm wrong, but if Detroit wins I don't get to be right? Typical AFC thought process. If we keep it close, that means we're better because people didn't expect it to be close. And besides, Calvin Johnson may miss another game and if that happens, all bets are off. A healthy Lions team is the one I'd take over anyone in the AFC North.

But why are we only concerned with the middle of the pack? I don't have any confidence in my 9th and 10th ranked NFC teams. They were the Panthers and Cardinals. The AFC has a better middle; I will give you that. But the NFC has more playoff-caliber teams.That is what matters after all.

Take the 49ers for example, and let's compare them to one of your precious AFC elites: the 5-0 Kansas City Chiefs. Thus far, the Chiefs have faced the Jaguars, Titans and 3/4 of the NFC East division. You're telling me San Fran wouldn't be 5-0 too with that schedule? Whereas the 49ers have already played the Packers, Seahawks, Colts, Texans and a division rival in the Rams. Through just a quarter of the season, most of a team's success comes down to their schedule and who they've played. You are too quick to react to that quarter in both directions: in favor of the AFC teams who've pounded weak opponents and against NFC teams who've struggled against tough competition.

Let's check back after week eight and see where everybody stands mid-season.


DAN:
Agreed, through merely four weeks the AFC looks like a beast. I'm not so ignorant as to anoint the Chiefs over the 49ers, but I do believe the power rankings speak to just that.

I'm very very curious to see if the teams outside the NFC top five can hold it together. Dallas and Atlanta come to mind and I would throw Detroit and the Packers in that group as well. Are they just average teams that score a lot, or can they actually compete for a championship? The AFC doesn't have this issue. The Chiefs, Dolphins and Browns are not title contenders. There is no question.

[If you missed Part one - NFL 1st quarter Power Rankings] 

Superbowl? Heck no its Harbaugh Bowl !

Superbowl? Heck no its Harbaugh Bowl !

by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (2-1-13)

[Part One from Monday]

DAN:

With two full weeks to prepare for the big game, as a Harbaugh I would devote at least one full day of preparation to breaking down my sibling's tendencies, faults, habits and insecurities. My brother breakdown day would go something like this:

I'm Jim Harbaugh, since he was a favorite player of mine growing up. I loved watching him as QB of the Colts, with Marshall Faulk rolling out into the flat to catch a pass and scamper into the end zone. So, first hour, what are John's biggest fears? These must, MUST, be made into giant posters to be held at midfield by a bunch of crazy fans. John is afraid of spiders, well guess what is going on a monster piece of cardboard, a tarantula. John hates Bruce Springsteen, well guess what music I'm playing as my team runs out of the tunnel. This has endless possibilities! Hour two would focus on how and why John panics. We know he is a great coach, but during his teen years playing backyard football if you kicked him while he was down then he would totally freak out and do something irrational. Perhaps that celebration penalty after a touchdown is worth it after all. And kick it onside just to make it really sting.

Okay, now you're John. What do you do?

TODD:

This is sounding like the plot of the movie Waterboy: the overbearing coach of the opponent striking fear into the heart and mind of the poor, lovable loser coach. Everyone agrees John is the "lovable" Harbaugh, right? And he is obviously the loser in this. All we need now is John going into the locker room at halftime and imagining Jim as a cuddly baby.

More important than even the brother battle is what will happen if the Ravens lose. They have been riding this Ray Lewis euphoria for weeks now, playing above their heads and getting a legitimate rich-man's-Eli-Manning performance out of Joe Flacco. So what happens if it fails to produce a title and Ray Lewis suddenly doesn't want to retire on slightly lower than top? If he comes back, how big of a scandal would this be? He played with the emotions of an entire team and city. He announced his retirement as a ploy to invigorate his over-matched mates to play at a level they hadn't approached this decade. If he wants to play another year, it sours his relationship with them, makes him a fraud in the eyes of the public and minimizes the effect he has on the rest of the league, which still pictured him as an elite-level middle linebacker even though he hasn't been one in years.

A Ravens loss would be catastrophic, leading to the free agency of their star quarterback and either the retirement of the franchise's best player or the return of the franchise's best player after he swore he would retire.

Meanwhile, the 49ers weren't even supposed to peak until Kaepernick got a few seasons under his belt. I'm not sure Jim even needs to go through the weaknesses of his brother to find an edge in this game. With the best defense and running game in the league, he has ownership of the future of the NFL at his fingertips.

DAN:

You're right; a sequel to the Waterboy is long overdue. Get Adam Sandler on the phone.

A Ravens loss won't be catastrophic for one simple reason; they are NOT expected to win. The 49ers are heavy, heavy favorites in my book. The Vegas line has the two teams slightly more even with Ravens +3.5 (doubt it's moved much), but there's no way the Ravens are looked at as the better team by any reasonable football mind. As you say, they are playing way over their heads and Joe "Football is Fun" Flacco hasn't earned my trust ever. Yes, he's playing for a new contract, but that didn't stop him from being boringly average all year.

As to your other two points. Flacco is a free agent regardless of the outcome and Mr. Ray Lewis already has a deal in place to join ESPN after the season. Even more rare than someone un-retiring is someone turning down a job at ESPN.

My hope, the Ravens lose so Flacco hits the open market and the Jets have a shot at him. And Ray Lewis puts his money where his super huge mouth is and delights us all on ESPN next fall. Go 49ers!

[If you missed Part One from Monday]

Harbaugh Bowl I

Harbaugh Bowl I

by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (1-28-13)

TODD:

In their highly contested, supremely exciting NFC Championship game victory, the 49ers did more than earn themselves a trip to the Super Bowl. They also made me 4 for 4 on my January predictions. Boo ya!

1 - Alabama will win the National Championship by more than one score - blam!

2 - Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens will both fall short of Hall induction - wham!

3 - The NHL lockout will end and the regular season will begin before the month is out - slam!

4 - The 49ers will win the National Football Conference - squajam!

That is all.

DAN:

Yes, yes, pour salt on the wound. Since January is winding down it’s fair to recap all your predictive glory, but my predictions were really just poorly chosen outcomes that didn’t happen, so let’s focus on what we both got right and embrace Super Bowl week. I bring you Harbaugh Bowl I. I went with Roman numerals to keep with tradition and make things unnecessarily confusing in an age where we count with numbers.

Brotherly competition holds a special place in my heart, as it does for you as well considering your 'kind' reminder of predictive glory. I was rooting for Tom Brady and I picked the Patriots to win, but I'm happy to see Jim and John in the big game facing off as only brothers can. Since you’re the stat guy, have two coaching brothers ever faced off in the Super Bowl? How about in the championship of the other major sports?

I was having a conversation last week about brothers in sports and there are tons in football. Family in general goes generational in the sport. We also see this in baseball, but not nearly to the same extent. And I know of at least one example in hockey with the Bourques. So we see sport families in football, baseball and hockey. But what about the NBA? I’m drawing a blank here. I know Doc Rivers' son is now playing, but that's a weak example at best. I can't think of a major family in basketball. I would attribute this to smaller rosters, less players on the court, and the overall athleticism required to play basketball. And now you tell me why I'm wrong.

TODD:

The Super Bowl should have a bevy of great story lines with Ray Lewis retiring, the 49ers quarterback switch, two hard-nosed defenses and the emergence of Joe Flacco. However, I agree with you that the Harbaughs facing each other is insane and should be the definitive story going into New Orleans.

Two brothers have most certainly never coached against each other in the Super Bowl and I am almost positive two brothers have never even played against each other in such a big game either. The only example of siblings facing each other in championships in sports that comes to mind is Venus and Serena Williams playing each other in tennis majors (which happened a lot and does not get the fanfare it deserves for how amazing it was).

As for simply playing the same sport as your brother, it does happen an awful lot more than I would expect considering the accomplishment. Basketball had the Barry brothers in the late 90's and early aughts. And the Morris twins are both in the NBA, coming out of Kansas just a few seasons ago. How could you have forgotten about the Gasols? Pau and Marc are probably the best pair of brothers in any sport (talent-wise) in a long time. They are both all-stars. And next year, Tyler Zeller's brother Cody will be in the NBA. So, yes indeed, you are wrong. It does not appear as though there are fewer examples of this happening in basketball than in the other sports. Fascinating that it happens so often, though.

DAN:

Oh man, the Gasols! And I forgot about the Lopez brothers, Robin and Brook. The NBA has no fewer examples of brothers, so the theory holds true. This theory is really just how DNA works, athleticism runs in the family.

Let's chalk that up to a point well made and head back to talking Harbaugh Bowl I, aka Super Bowl XLVII in New Orleans where the 49ers face the Ravens. If I were Jim or John, with two full weeks to prepare for the big game, I would devote at least one full day of preparation to breaking down my sibling's tendencies, faults, habits and insecurities. Speaking from experience, Toddy, only Jim and John's parents know them better than they know one another. They are only fifteen months apart in age. That's practically twins! They built snow forts together, presumably, were on the same high school sports teams (pretend this is true for sake of argument) and may have even stolen a girlfriend or two at some point. How can you not exploit this in the biggest game of your coaching career?

My 'Brother Breakdown Day' would go something like this:

[Part two of 'Harbaugh Bowl I' on Friday]