by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (1-3-14)
[Part one - Final NFL Power Rankings]
TODD:
I still think Miami was the sixth best team in the AFC. I hated Baltimore's offense all year. I hated San Diego's defense all year. I hated Pittsburgh all year. There was nothing about Miami that screamed hatred...other than their epic, late-season collapse I suppose. You could have talked me into putting the Dallas Cowboys ahead of them maybe, but I wasn't going to drop them below any of those other AFC wild card contenders.
But, oddly enough, the Dolphins actually stayed pretty consistent for us all year. The first set of power rankings we did, after week four, we both had them ranked in the teens. (You had them 12th, which technically isn't in the teens, but you get the point.) There were many other teams that took giants leaps from the first week of October until now.
Pittsburgh and Philadelphia were very, very low on our original rankings. They both took weeks, even months in the case of Pittsburgh, to get their acts together. Arizona jumped especially high as well. We both had them in the bottom ten of the league after four games.
Meanwhile, Detroit and Atlanta were a couple of the teams near the top that dropped dramatically through the final three fourths of the season. I loved Detroit for much of the season, and was still confident in Atlanta turning things around early on. What is it that makes this league so hard to predict, even mid-season? It is unfathomable in any other sport to have standings flip after a quarter of the season has already been played. Is it strictly the case of small sample size and nothing else? After all, four games is just four games, no matter how short the regular season is. Anyone can look amazing (or dreadful) in a string of four games. Cough cough... Geno Smith... cough.
DAN:
At least Geno Smith was a rookie... cough cough... Eli Manning his entire career... cough. Rookies often play up and down as they first surprise defenses, then get bombarded as everyone has "figured them out." The key barometer in my opinion is how they finish off the season. Does the rookie cave and continue to make mistakes, or does he right the ship, slow down and play solid football? Geno had zero turnovers in his final two games and led the league (along with Cam Newton) in rushing touchdowns. I see a lot more Cam Newton in him than I see Jay Cutler. As for the league at large, it was as up and down as Geno Smith was this season.
The Detroit Lions are probably my biggest surprise and disappointment of the season. I had them ranked 11th at the four game mark, then 10th after eight games, still at 15th after twelve games, and finally all the way down to 21st after the season's final weekend. Woah. Counter that with Arizona's rise from 30th up to 9th in my rankings and its no wonder the NFL is so damn popular every week of the season.
The four game mark is an obvious trap and no team is truly known after only a quarter of the season. With the exception of our elite quarterbacks, every other team is still getting its proverbial house in order. But at the halfway point? I was so wrong on the Eagles at 29th and the Titans at 14th its not even funny. But you know what is funny?
I had the top two teams in the league (both finishing at 13-3) in my top three power rankings the entire season! Both Denver and Seattle have been at the top of my rankings from week one through week seventeen. And both the Broncos and Seahawks sit atop their respective conferences. This league may surprise us, it may have parity, but the top was the top this season. It was actually straight forward. I'm leaning towards an outlier in regards to this season's top five predictability. Fact or Fiction?
TODD:
It will all depend on how they perform in the playoffs. That's the ultimate test of a power rank.
By the way, you should get that cough checked out.
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