MLB season recap: Playoff prognostication & the Off season - Part two

MLB season recap: Playoff prognostication & the Off season - Part two
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (10-4-13)

[Part one - Gloating and Awards]



DAN:
Let me get this out of the way up front. I'm pulling for the Dodgers this postseason, partially because I call LA home, but mainly because I want to be excited to watch some games throughout the month of October. The 2013 MLB playoffs is lining up to completely shoot its load early. Two of the most exciting match ups were the Wild Card single elimination games. I love the Reds vs. the Pirates. Two franchises struggling to find real success. And the Rays vs. the Indians is just fun. We got each for one game, with the Pirates and Rays prevailing. So we move on.

The true first round, the divisional round, is kind of amazing. The Red Sox vs. the Rays is awesome and the Dodgers vs. the Braves is just as awesome! But in the divisional round? Damn it. Those are my ideal Championship round match ups that we won't see. Detroit vs. Oakland and the Pirates vs. St. Louis are decent, but nothing to write home about. After this round, its not looking pretty.

As a fan I want the Red Sox and Dodgers to advance, but I'm sticking by my January 1st predictions. The Rays are hot and will take down the Red Sox. Same goes for the Braves, who will out hustle the Dodgers for the series win. I'm taking Detroit over an over matched Oakland squad and the Pirates to continue the magic just a little longer against an older St. Louis roster.

This pits the Rays vs. the Tigers in the AL Championship and the Braves vs. the Pirates for the NL crown. Ho hum. The Rays win a tough series while the Braves continue to make the opposition look silly, on their way to the World Series. With the Braves vs. the Rays for the championship of Major League Baseball, the Braves come out on top proving that by late October most of the country has already forgotten about baseball.


TODD:
Your American League rationalization sounds accurate. The Rays and Red Sox seem like the two best teams and two most fun teams to see play for the pennant. Unfortunately, with them facing each other in the divisional round instead, things are not ideal. However, Oakland and Detroit are probably more talented overall than Tampa. I mean Detroit especially is loaded on all fronts when they're on. Really it's amazing how good all four of these teams' pitching staffs are. I know it sounds like I'm talking everyone up to make it harder for me to get a pick wrong, and I am, but I could easily see any of the four make the World Series.

The match ups though, favor two. I think Boston desperately wanted to face either Texas or Cleveland. Tampa was their worst case scenario and they got it. With that pitching and wily, gutty roster, Tampa takes down Boston as you noted. I think Oakland also advances as a semi-upset. This has more to do with Detroit not having all their pieces in order really. Miguel Cabrera has been banged up for a month now; Justin Verlander hasn't been the same pitcher this season. In a five game series, Oakland hits their way to three wins.

It's anyone's guess who wins when Oakland faces Tampa. The pitching staff of each team is super deep, with the edge maybe to the Rays. I like the Athletics' lineup a bit more but only if Yoenis Cespedes gets over his lingering issues from the end of the regular season. Because of experience, I have to go with Tampa as well to make the World Series. After all, while you picked this team from the start of the year, I picked them to at least win the AL East. We both thought they'd be formidable.

As for the NL, you have your opinions backwards. The exciting series is the NL Central tilt between the Cards and Buccos. The Pirates are the best story in baseball and the Cardinals are the best team in baseball. This series should be a lot of fun, especially if that Pirates crowd is as rowdy as they were during the wild card match. Hearing them taunt poor Johnny Cueto so mercilessly was kind of refreshing to hear from a baseball crowd. St. Louis advances but not for lack of effort and pep by Pittsburgh.

The other match up upsets me. I understand you rooting for the Dodgers. It makes sense. But this team is not that good. They have three legitimate starting pitchers for sure but that's as far as their strengths go. Unless these hitters, who've been hitting way over their head all year long, keep it going, this might be a short series. And that's not because I am really high on Atlanta. Because I'm not.

Atlanta's offense is suspect and their pitching is not nearly as strong as it was earlier in the season. I like them to advance past the divisional round but fall to the superior Cardinals in the championship series.

In the World Series, we see two very familiar teams. St. Louis and Tampa Bay have both had tons of playoff experience in recent years. The Rays have David Price and Joe Maddon and Evan Longoria and Wil Myers and lots of good stuff all around, but this St. Louis team just seems better. They had the second best run differential in the majors during the regular season. Assuming Allen Craig makes it back from injury at some point during the playoffs, their lineup is really deep and really underrated. And that pitching staff is killer, both good and so young.

If the Cardinals do win another World Series this season, the National League better watch out because this team is not getting worse anytime soon. Between Shelby Miller, Trevor Rosenthal, and Michael Wacha, they may have the best young pitchers in the majors, and that's not even counting what they have at the minor league level (scary good) and their veterans (Adam Wainwright, anyone?).

Thinking of the Cardinals' bright future makes me sad and somber thinking of the Yankees dark and dreary midnight romp into the off season. Robinson Cano is asking for $305 million; the pitching staff is going to be decimated with hopes resting on Michael Pineda; and the lineup is older than George Burns and George Burns died like 18 years ago.

At least this Alex Rodriguez appeal hearing gives us something to follow...in the hopes that he is indeed suspended and it frees up $30 million for the Yankees to spend elsewhere in 2014.


DAN:
I'm bored thinking of the Cardinals winning another World Series. I know they are a classic MLB franchise who let their best player walk in Albert Pujols only to become a better team, but they have no cache. And our off season prospects aren't much more fun.

Robinson Cano will most likely end up wearing a different uniform next season. He wants too much money and someone will pay it to him. More importantly, he wants a ten year deal which I HOPE the Yankees do not agree to. He is not young enough to warrant anything close to that long of a contract.

As for A-rod, sure freeing up his money is great and all, but I'm hoping he isn't suspended for very long. The Yankees desperately need some fire power in their ever aging lineup. He is an excellent DH still, not amazing, but very good. Any other big names you see moving, or trades going down, before we settle in for the post season action?



TODD:
Of course Rodriguez would be a viable bat in our lineup. He was superior to any and all third base options we had this past season. But can't the Yankees rebuild for one year (since that is what is looking like will happen voluntarily or not)? So why not bottom out and use the A-Rod money on some young guys? I know this isn't basketball or even football. Teams don't bottom out for draft picks in baseball unless that is what Houston has been doing for four years now. But the Yankees are allowed to be bad for one year if it means a nice rebound the following season with a roster we like. 2014 seems like the perfect storm of roster crumbling, money drying up (by choice) and the like to put this in motion anyways.

I know it's New York and that probably won't happen but, on some level, I would rather a last place finish and a retooled roster of younger guys to another season like this where the playoffs is plausible but not likely.

As for other moves, the only thing that people are chatting about is David Price getting moved. Tampa won't be able to afford him after next season and they usually deal guys for something valuable before they hit free agency. Although a World Series title here might make it difficult to part with their ace pitcher. It will be interesting to follow what Price and Tampa do this off season.

[If you missed Part one - Gloating and Awards]

MLB season recap: Gloating & Awards - Part one

MLB season recap: Gloating & Awards - Part one
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (9-30-13)



DAN:
So the MLB season is in the books and its been a fun and wild ride. I feel its appropriate to dredge up the past a bit and remind you of our World Series predictions we made way back during the first week of January. This will be fun, mostly for me!

You predicted, and I quote: "The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim will be back in the series on the backs of their loaded lineup and sterling pitching to face the Cincinnati Reds."

The Reds are in the playoffs, but how do you feel about your picks? You had the Angels winning in six games. I'm sorry, well no I'm not, but that pick looks really really bad in hindsight. You also stuck by the Angles in May and picked them to make the playoffs instead of the Dodgers, when both teams were stinking it up.

Now for my own prediction. "I'd say the Braves face the Rays in the World Series. The team with the healthiest pitching wins... Atlanta."

Well, well, both teams are in the playoffs (as of today the Rays are in the playoff play-in game so close enough for now). Win for me! I also nailed the Dodgers bouncing back and the Indians being this season's Pirates. We were both way off on the Red Sox, but who cares. Enough of my gloating, let's lay down some season awards.

If I could take a team's record out of the equation, then I would give the AL MVP to Mike Trout, but I can't. Miguel Cabrera wins it, with Detroit winning their division yet again. As for the AL Cy Young award... its goes to Max Scherzer because someone has to win it.

The National League weaves a very different web. The NL MVP has no clear cut winner in my book, so I'm leaning towards Jay Bruce with the Reds in the playoffs. I'm also going Kershaw for Cy Young winner. That one's a pretty easy pick.

What do you got?


TODD:
Hmmm.

Well, I do still like the Reds. They have one of the strongest teams, top to bottom, in the league. As for the Angels selection, I can only assume that I was aiming for some sort of reverse jinx to remove one of the Yankees' top competitors...and it worked like a charm! You're welcome. The Angels pitching was horrid all year and their big bats flamed out masterfully, with the exception of your boy Mike Trout.

As for the Dodgers, I'm still not sure how they finished the year so well. I guess their two-man rotation got a huge lift from Hyun-Jin Ryu, who was amazing all year. Forget Yasiel Puig; Ryu was probably the Dodgers best rookie this season. And the bullpen was good even though Brandon League threw over 50 innings while sporting a 5.40 ERA and 1.56 WHIP. The lineup, on the other hand, is pretty inexplicable. Three, count em, three of the Dodgers four best hitters (according to offensive WAR) had comeback seasons for the ages. Hanley Ramirez was their best batter, by a lot, and the majority of fans thought his career was over. The same goes for Adrian Gonzalez. And Andre Either somehow brought himself from a future fourth or fifth outfielder to a three-win player who hit 30 doubles and was serviceable everyday.

Overall, this team's success still doesn't make sense. Matt Kemp had fewer than 300 at-bats; Hanley had barely over 300 ABs and still accumulated more than 5 wins above replacement. Hell, Zack Greinke was ninth on the team in offensive WAR. Yes, OFFENSIVE WAR, starting pitcher Zack Greinke, who had all of 56 at-bats this season. It's astonishing.

All that being said, I see the Dodgers as the most likely team to lose their first round series but we'll get to playoff predictions later in the week. As for regular season awards:

I think you have it backwards in the AL. I think Mike Trout should, and does, take home the MVP this season. He could have gotten it last year, and would have if Cabrera fell short in one of the triple crown categories. Well, this year Cabrera has been outstanding but he's been banged up much of the month of September. And really, the way these things work, how can the voters disregard Trout two years in a row with the seasons he's had? He is just as good of a hitter as Cabrera in nearly ever category, with the exception of the home run power, but blows Miggy away on the base paths and on defense. Everyone knows team success should not factor into MVP voting. I love Cabrera. Actually, this is funny how this worked out since Trout is your guy and Miggy is mine but I think Trout gets the award.

I actually agree with you on AL Cy Young; it's going to be Max Scherzer. Chris Sale had been the best pitcher in the American League all year, and he still does lead the league in WAR. But his peripheral stats are not that much better than Scherzer's. And Max hits all the number thresholds: 20+ wins, ERA under 3, WHIP under 1, well over 200 strikeouts. He gets it.

In the NL, you are right again with the Cy Young; it is Clayton Kershaw and it's not even close.

As for MVP, way to be wrong on both accounts. First, Jay Bruce is a ludicrous pick. He's not even the best hitter on his own team. That would be Joey Votto. But you are also wrong with there being no clear-cut winner because that man is Andrew McCutchen. He is near the top five of pretty much every offensive category in existence. His team had its best season in decades. He runs. He plays defense. He does it all. McCutchen may not be a brand name yet but that doesn't mean he's not the easy MVP pick.


DAN:
Playoff predictions.... playoff predictions. Do I stick with my New Years' picks or clean slate and re-evaluate after a full season of games? Once the play-in game for the final American League wild card spot, along with the two single elimination wild card games are in the books, we can make some real playoff predictions. I still like my Braves.

[Part two - Playoff Prognostication & the Off season]

MLB Opening Day Mash up - Part One

MLB Opening Day Mash up - Part One
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (4-1-13)

DAN:

Its opening day. Woo!!! The Yankees and the rest of the league are back. I kid. I kid. I'm really not that much of a biased baseball fan. Its just that the Yankees are infinitely more fun to watch because they are both my team and the New York Yankees. Let the games begin!

We broke down the AL East a few weeks ago in detail, nailed down this years Orioles and Pirates, the teams who both overachieve but one maintains it and makes the playoffs while the other peters out after the All Star break. What's left? You know what's coming...

AL MVP = ?
NL MVP = ?
Rookie of the Year = ?

I'll stop there as the impossible gets exceedingly impossible. But in all honesty, what's exciting you about the season? What's going to end up a boring news story? Are we in for a predictable year or one that takes the game to a new level?

TODD:

Remember when Stewie Griffin found out he was going to Disney World? That's me when I realized Opening Day was at hand. Woo!

Guessing the MVP and ROY winners is kind of a pointless exercise though. What happened when we tried to pick the March Madness Final Four teams months ago? You picked Texas, who didn't even make the NIT, let alone the big one. Although your Syracuse pick to win it all does have validity.

What isn't pointless is naming what we should be excited for and pay attention to these first few weeks of the season. Such as: how does the Yankees lineup turn out; does the newly acquired Brennan Boesch make the team; will Granderson and Teixeira be ahead of schedule; how will Jeter and Rivera look... oh, oh, I misread what you wrote. We are ditching the biases for this post? My bad.

Here's what we should be on the edge of our seats about in each division:

NL East - Will the Braves have the greatest outfield unit since 2000? Will the Mets have the worst since 1900?

NL Central - Are the Reds a juggernaut ready to vanquish all other National League foes? When will the Cubs start going all Dodgers on us and spend big?

NL West - What type of season can Colorado's offense give us if Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki can stay healthy?

AL East - it's been discussed

AL Central - Are people ready to move on from the Royals if their young hitters don't start off well?

AL West - Did the Astros actually move yet? Really, this already happened? Why has no one said anything? Oh, and Mike Trout.

DAN:

My completely baseless Final Four picks from January aren't that bad... Waiting... Waiting... Fine. Predictions sure to go wrong can be left to Mike and Mike for the start of the MLB season. But I'm not promising a complete ditch of Yankees bias. That's too far.

The main storyline keeping me on the edge of my seat, besides all of the Yankees questions you mentioned (damn its hard to set them aside) is who will be worse, the Mets or Red Sox. Both teams are setting themselves up for complete failure. The Red Sox even went as far as to issue a media plea to their fans in order to rectify the ever growing gap between fan expectations and the overall suckiness of the team on the field. I LOVE this! Who's going to suck worse? That's what I'm excited for this season!

Running down the divisions, let me answer your edge of the seat questions and pose one more:

NL East - The Braves will definitely field a tremendous team, but you knew I'd say this. I picked them to win it all this year. As for the Mets, they won't be as bad as an early 1900s squad, mainly because steroids now exist. What's exciting me about the division? If the Marlins, who literally sold off their entire team in the off season, finish with a better record than the Mets, who still manage to have a ridiculous payroll even with such a poor lineup, can we finally end this stupid money buys success debate? Ownership is the key to success. Money spent poorly (the Mets) will prove to be no different than collecting money (the Marlins).

NL Central - I think the Reds will be good, but great is highly questionable. As for the Cubs, they won't start spending until the curse of the billy goat is lifted. Or the curse of that guy who caught the foul ball and 'ruined' their above average season, Bartman. So never. This division kind of waddles in obscurity and that's how I like it.

NL West - Can the Dodgers live up to the unwarranted expectations the LA fans now have for them? Can they stay above .500 with Hanley Ramirez out for two months?

AL Central - Since when did anyone jump on the Royals bandwagon? I'm intrigued to see whether Justin Verlander can maintain the ridiculous pitching dominance he's had of late. Pitching is so up and down, but not him. Interesting?

AL West - Mike freaking Trout. Also, I did not realize the Astros moved either. What was the point of this? Do the Astros have anyone good?

You can now discuss the Yankees or Fantasy Baseball. I'll allow it.

[MLB Mash up w/ Fantasy - Part Two]