by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (3-15-13)
[Part One - Fantasy picks & AL East]
DAN:
Umm, wow, where do I begin? You're right about one thing, one run games are a sure fire way to an inflated or deflated record in baseball. However, you are DEAD wrong on the Orioles. They didn't just win one run games last year, they won games period. But assessing the Orioles record in 2013 is not merely about assessing them as a team, but assessing the other competition in the AL East. The Orioles have a well balanced lineup, Matt Wieters anyone, manipulated by a tremendous manager in Buck Showalter. Their pitching staff was decimated by injury last season and still managed to be great. They'll have both Zach Britton and Jason Hammel back at full strength. Don't tell me they aren't still a force.But as to the real reason they finish second this season, the rest of the division just isn't any better save for the Rays. The Rays are a better version of the Orioles. Otherwise, the Blue Jays will do okay but are attempting to play the Yankees' game. The Yankees, all be it older, will play it better. And the Red Sox, come on. How can they finish ahead of the Orioles? They barely fielded a team last year, and last I checked, have done next to nothing to improve over the winter.
You conveniently left out your division standings. Afraid to put it on paper? Man up.
TODD:
Actually, I hate to pull the "facts" card out on you like this, but the Orioles whole playoff berth was on the back of winning one-run games and pretty much nothing else. They went 29-9 in one-run games. That is the best mark in baseball history since the turn of the century; the century in question being 1900!! If they were simply above average in one-run games, say a .600 winning percentage, pretty damn solid, they would have finished with seven fewer wins and missed the playoffs by a healthy margin. Their entire fluky season was built on fluky wins and a fluky bullpen.
It is true they have some young pitching but no one in their rotation is anything more than a third starter. Who is Baltimore's ace, Wei-Yin Chen?? As for their lineup, they have a few good hitters, some young talents and a nice mix of power and speed...which probably means they have the fourth best lineup in the division. Come on, this is the AL East we're talking about!
You actually think they're better than the Red Sox? Boston still has Ellsbury and Pedroia and Ortiz. They added Victorino, Stephen Drew, and lots of power in Mike Napoli and Jonny Gomes. As long as the starting rotation isn't below replacement level, this team will finish multiple games ahead of Baltimore.
Speaking of, I'm not one to back away from a prediction that no one will remember anyway unless I remind them of it because I nailed it on the head. So here is how the AL East will shape up this season:
(1) Tampa Bay
(2) New York
(3) Toronto
(4) Boston
(5) Baltimore
DAN:
I love LOVE your faith in the Yankees to finish in the two spot and I obviously agree about Tampa Bay, but I never ever pick against the eye test. Baltimore passed the eye test last season with flying colors. Throw your history making stats out the window for a moment and watch them play. Now go watch Boston. No contest. Boston may have improved, and on paper they sound like a pretty formidable opponent, but the eye test doesn't lie. Baltimore is better and a lot better than you think.You make my Baltimore pick seem like a shot in the dark, akin to picking the Mets to make the playoffs or something equally as absurd. Any truly surprising teams this season? Who will be this season's Orioles and who will be this season's Pirates? Both had monster first halves in 2012, but only the Orioles were able to hang on for the full 162.
The Pirates for 2013 will be the Cleveland Indians, strong from April until July, but ultimately on the outside looking in come September. They added some nice hitters to the lineup, but the team is just average. Our season's Orioles will be the Milwaukee Brewers. I know they were good a few seasons ago, but the team is very different now and will once again make a run into the wildcard.
TODD:
The Indians is a very nice choice for this year's Pirates. They have a lot of talent on offense and some upside pitchers. This team is probably more talented overall than the Pirates were a season ago. But playing in the American League should certainly help see a second half decline here. I like that pick or their divisional foe, the Kansas City Royals. KC has even more talent than Cleveland does. It is certainly within the realm of possibility that their young hitters get off to a hot start and their veteran pitching staff does the rest. Of course there is little upside to a rotation of Ervin Santana, Jeremy Guthrie, Bruce Chen and Wade Davis, even with James Shields as the default ace; hence the second half collapse. I can't get on board with your Brewers pick though. Not because they have no shot at contending for a wildcard; but because this team is too good to qualify as the 2013-version Orioles. Forget about Ryan Braun (AKA the number one fantasy player in baseball), Aramis Ramirez or the bats. Just look at that pitching staff. Yovani Gallardo is an All-Star candidate. Plus, Mike Fiers and Marco Estrada are solid starters. Baltimore won on the backs of a bullpen, a wing, and a prayer. Milwaukee deserves better. The real Orioles run of this season will be made by the San Diego Padres.
All of the Padres' pieces fit:
- They have an underrated lineup; Chase Headley had a breakout season last year; young bats like Yonder Alonso and Cameron Maybin are ready to make a leap; and they have lots of speed to create trouble for opponents.
- They have an awful starting rotation; their "ace" is Edinson Volquez. According to baseball-reference's WAR stat, he's had only one season in his career worth more than one win and that was back in 2008 as a member of the Reds. So, other than 2008, there hasn't been a single season where he was more than one win better than a scrap heap, replacement schlub. In other news, he walked 105 batters last season.
- They have what should be a fantastic bullpen; Huston Street is a stud closer. Alongside him, Luke Gregerson is one of the best setup men in baseball. With Joe Thatcher and Dale Thayer, San Diego's late-inning army should be hard to score upon.
Also throw in the fact that San Diego will probably be predicted to finish last or fourth in the NL West this year and the parallels are perfect. Watch out National League; your day of reckoning is upon us!
Go Yankees!
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