MLB season recap: Playoff prognostication & the Off season - Part two

MLB season recap: Playoff prognostication & the Off season - Part two
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (10-4-13)

[Part one - Gloating and Awards]



DAN:
Let me get this out of the way up front. I'm pulling for the Dodgers this postseason, partially because I call LA home, but mainly because I want to be excited to watch some games throughout the month of October. The 2013 MLB playoffs is lining up to completely shoot its load early. Two of the most exciting match ups were the Wild Card single elimination games. I love the Reds vs. the Pirates. Two franchises struggling to find real success. And the Rays vs. the Indians is just fun. We got each for one game, with the Pirates and Rays prevailing. So we move on.

The true first round, the divisional round, is kind of amazing. The Red Sox vs. the Rays is awesome and the Dodgers vs. the Braves is just as awesome! But in the divisional round? Damn it. Those are my ideal Championship round match ups that we won't see. Detroit vs. Oakland and the Pirates vs. St. Louis are decent, but nothing to write home about. After this round, its not looking pretty.

As a fan I want the Red Sox and Dodgers to advance, but I'm sticking by my January 1st predictions. The Rays are hot and will take down the Red Sox. Same goes for the Braves, who will out hustle the Dodgers for the series win. I'm taking Detroit over an over matched Oakland squad and the Pirates to continue the magic just a little longer against an older St. Louis roster.

This pits the Rays vs. the Tigers in the AL Championship and the Braves vs. the Pirates for the NL crown. Ho hum. The Rays win a tough series while the Braves continue to make the opposition look silly, on their way to the World Series. With the Braves vs. the Rays for the championship of Major League Baseball, the Braves come out on top proving that by late October most of the country has already forgotten about baseball.


TODD:
Your American League rationalization sounds accurate. The Rays and Red Sox seem like the two best teams and two most fun teams to see play for the pennant. Unfortunately, with them facing each other in the divisional round instead, things are not ideal. However, Oakland and Detroit are probably more talented overall than Tampa. I mean Detroit especially is loaded on all fronts when they're on. Really it's amazing how good all four of these teams' pitching staffs are. I know it sounds like I'm talking everyone up to make it harder for me to get a pick wrong, and I am, but I could easily see any of the four make the World Series.

The match ups though, favor two. I think Boston desperately wanted to face either Texas or Cleveland. Tampa was their worst case scenario and they got it. With that pitching and wily, gutty roster, Tampa takes down Boston as you noted. I think Oakland also advances as a semi-upset. This has more to do with Detroit not having all their pieces in order really. Miguel Cabrera has been banged up for a month now; Justin Verlander hasn't been the same pitcher this season. In a five game series, Oakland hits their way to three wins.

It's anyone's guess who wins when Oakland faces Tampa. The pitching staff of each team is super deep, with the edge maybe to the Rays. I like the Athletics' lineup a bit more but only if Yoenis Cespedes gets over his lingering issues from the end of the regular season. Because of experience, I have to go with Tampa as well to make the World Series. After all, while you picked this team from the start of the year, I picked them to at least win the AL East. We both thought they'd be formidable.

As for the NL, you have your opinions backwards. The exciting series is the NL Central tilt between the Cards and Buccos. The Pirates are the best story in baseball and the Cardinals are the best team in baseball. This series should be a lot of fun, especially if that Pirates crowd is as rowdy as they were during the wild card match. Hearing them taunt poor Johnny Cueto so mercilessly was kind of refreshing to hear from a baseball crowd. St. Louis advances but not for lack of effort and pep by Pittsburgh.

The other match up upsets me. I understand you rooting for the Dodgers. It makes sense. But this team is not that good. They have three legitimate starting pitchers for sure but that's as far as their strengths go. Unless these hitters, who've been hitting way over their head all year long, keep it going, this might be a short series. And that's not because I am really high on Atlanta. Because I'm not.

Atlanta's offense is suspect and their pitching is not nearly as strong as it was earlier in the season. I like them to advance past the divisional round but fall to the superior Cardinals in the championship series.

In the World Series, we see two very familiar teams. St. Louis and Tampa Bay have both had tons of playoff experience in recent years. The Rays have David Price and Joe Maddon and Evan Longoria and Wil Myers and lots of good stuff all around, but this St. Louis team just seems better. They had the second best run differential in the majors during the regular season. Assuming Allen Craig makes it back from injury at some point during the playoffs, their lineup is really deep and really underrated. And that pitching staff is killer, both good and so young.

If the Cardinals do win another World Series this season, the National League better watch out because this team is not getting worse anytime soon. Between Shelby Miller, Trevor Rosenthal, and Michael Wacha, they may have the best young pitchers in the majors, and that's not even counting what they have at the minor league level (scary good) and their veterans (Adam Wainwright, anyone?).

Thinking of the Cardinals' bright future makes me sad and somber thinking of the Yankees dark and dreary midnight romp into the off season. Robinson Cano is asking for $305 million; the pitching staff is going to be decimated with hopes resting on Michael Pineda; and the lineup is older than George Burns and George Burns died like 18 years ago.

At least this Alex Rodriguez appeal hearing gives us something to follow...in the hopes that he is indeed suspended and it frees up $30 million for the Yankees to spend elsewhere in 2014.


DAN:
I'm bored thinking of the Cardinals winning another World Series. I know they are a classic MLB franchise who let their best player walk in Albert Pujols only to become a better team, but they have no cache. And our off season prospects aren't much more fun.

Robinson Cano will most likely end up wearing a different uniform next season. He wants too much money and someone will pay it to him. More importantly, he wants a ten year deal which I HOPE the Yankees do not agree to. He is not young enough to warrant anything close to that long of a contract.

As for A-rod, sure freeing up his money is great and all, but I'm hoping he isn't suspended for very long. The Yankees desperately need some fire power in their ever aging lineup. He is an excellent DH still, not amazing, but very good. Any other big names you see moving, or trades going down, before we settle in for the post season action?



TODD:
Of course Rodriguez would be a viable bat in our lineup. He was superior to any and all third base options we had this past season. But can't the Yankees rebuild for one year (since that is what is looking like will happen voluntarily or not)? So why not bottom out and use the A-Rod money on some young guys? I know this isn't basketball or even football. Teams don't bottom out for draft picks in baseball unless that is what Houston has been doing for four years now. But the Yankees are allowed to be bad for one year if it means a nice rebound the following season with a roster we like. 2014 seems like the perfect storm of roster crumbling, money drying up (by choice) and the like to put this in motion anyways.

I know it's New York and that probably won't happen but, on some level, I would rather a last place finish and a retooled roster of younger guys to another season like this where the playoffs is plausible but not likely.

As for other moves, the only thing that people are chatting about is David Price getting moved. Tampa won't be able to afford him after next season and they usually deal guys for something valuable before they hit free agency. Although a World Series title here might make it difficult to part with their ace pitcher. It will be interesting to follow what Price and Tampa do this off season.

[If you missed Part one - Gloating and Awards]

MLB April stats mean NOTHING - Part two

MLB April stats mean NOTHING - Part two
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (5-10-13)

[Part one - MLB one month Over Reaction]



DAN:
As to the crazy yet real stats you through out there, I'm going to tell you if any of them will still be true at the All Star break and season's end. This should be fun!

- The Oakland A's and the Colorado Rockies scored the most runs in the AL and NL respectively
This is an obvious NO for both teams.

- Pittsburgh was in first place in the NL Central
I like them as a wildcard team, but not as division champs.

-Toronto was in last place in the AL East
I'm really surprised they aren't at least a .500 ball club, but last place seems right to me.

- The Rockies had the most April wins in the entire National League
Did you make this one up? I can't see this lasting even to Memorial Day.

- John Buck was on pace for 54 home runs and 150 RBI
I almost went to add him to my fantasy team, but then I realized it was John Buck.

- The following players had an OPS over 1.000: Dexter Fowler, Carlos Gomez, Wilin Rosario
This just means they aren't playing much, right? I should probably drop Rosario now from my fantasy roster..... Yeah no way, he's a stud.

- Jake Westbrook leads all starters in ERA with a mark of 0.98
Who? Is he available?

- Clay Bucholz and Jon Lester combined to go 9-0 after going 20-22 last year
No wonder the Red Sox are in first place. Not going to continue.

- Jason Grilli, the Pirates' closer, leads the league in saves and is a perfect 10 for 10 in chances
Who? Is he available? I now want him badly on my team.


TODD:
It seems counterproductive for you to react to ANY of the stats I listed for the month of April. Didn't I explain pretty clearly how things that happen in April are pointless? Hah. None of those things will continue; some have already begun to swing around in just a week and a half of May!

The dirty, little secret about baseball statistics though is that you can pick a sample size of thirty days from pretty much any point in the season and create a list that long or longer about idiotic things that make no sense. It is the problem with a small sample size. There is not enough time for a true outcome to be unearthed. Too much is based on luck in that short a time frame. The reason April stands out as "the pointless month" is because stats are easier to read starting from zero. That is really the only reason. It is harder to find someone's terrible July compared to the rest of the league because you have to sift through their stats prior to the beginning of July, or even make a point of keeping track before the trend even develops. April is way easier.

With that said, I love statistics. You can twist them and contort them to make any point your heart desires. Sports writers are really just cutting through all the numbers out there and cherry-picking ones that prove what they want to say. If someone is down on the Angels, they may bring up how many games back they are or how many games below .500 they are or how they only have an 9.1% chance of making the playoffs (according to ESPN's playoff odds).

But someone could just as easily bring up how they've only played one home series so far against a team who didn't make the playoffs last year, which was April 12-14 against Houston, and they won 2 out of 3 there. They are currently playing without their ace pitcher, without their closer and without their starting center fielder who was batting .313 when he went down and had one of the better Aprils of anyone on the roster. Also...hmm, well everything else with this team is bad. Josh Hamilton is so bad he's been below replacement-level for over thirty games now. So okay, statistics can't be manipulated to prove ANYTHING but the fact remains.

Let's tweak the question though. From this day forward, Anaheim wins more games than the Dodgers.


DAN:
Tweaking the question just makes it so your answer can be right, while the REAL question is what the fans really care about. Playoffs baby, playoffs. The Dodgers are in. The Angels are out.

As for stats, I enjoy the numbers behind the game of baseball, but could ultimately care less about my team's percent chance of making the playoffs at this point in the season. I don't care about their ERA or their OBP either. There are only two stats that matter to me as a baseball fan. Team wins and team batting average with runners in scoring position (RISP). Two stats, no more, no less.

I love following my team's wins because you can get a real feel for the energy and swagger of your ball club. Especially looking back at April, is your team clicking, starting to gel as a group, or are they much maligned like the aforementioned Dodgers and Angels. Even if your team is teetering at .500 you can be happy about a three or four game win streak. It shows the team has a chance to make a splash this season. Of course, the opposite is even more true. Any sort of long losing streak at this point in the year is rather damning. Lose two or three and you're like everyone else. But ratchet up a few six or seven game losing streaks and its a hole that only one or two teams in history have climbed out of by September.

April wins and loses have minimal importance as long as you aren't nine games back like the Angels. They can definitely recover, but they'll never be a great team this season. That we know for a fact after one month. As for the rest of the league, five games up or down in your division is neither a mountain or a mole hill. Its just a month sample size like you mentioned. Let's talk again on July 1st.

My other favorite stat is team batting average with RISP. As Yankees fans our team usually hits a lot of home runs, but I can always tell if our team is up for a deep postseason run based on that stat. Take last season for example, the Yankees stunk with RISP. They couldn't hit anyone home unless it was with a long ball. In the postseason, when power numbers drop and small ball gains importance, I knew this stat would haunt them. The team did not get the simple hits when it mattered, with runners on base, and you can't win a championship like that. Rarely can a team power hit their way past a lousy average with RISP. I'm keeping a close eye on this stat as we approach June. Things do look up this season for the Yankees, who added a lot of productive players to the lineup, guys who get the hit and get the man home to score. This season is nothing like last season and I'm loving it!

[Part one - Click here - MLB one month Over Reaction]

MLB one month Over Reaction - Part one

MLB one month Over Reaction - Part one
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (5-6-13)



DAN:
The first month of the baseball season is notoriously poor at being an indicator for the rest of the season, but May on the other hand is not. I think you know where this is headed... April flubs and shaky studs!

We've had some surprise success and failure this past month, but in my opinion none has been more surprising than the Dodgers and Angels who find themselves five and half and nine games out of the division lead respectively. On paper they are chock full of studs, but neither has really started clicking yet. They had some injuries, sure, but so have our Yankees and they are looking mighty fine. My spider sense tells me that only one of the two will be a contender after a month of futility. Who do you got?

Give me your flubs and shaky studs for April and perchance reflect on the the ramifications or utter uselessness of trying to look at April as a barometer for the MLB season.


TODD:
April is notoriously pointless. There is no way around this. From the beginning of the season, I thought the Dodgers were being overvalued. They have a ton of holes. The Angels, on the other hand, I was pretty sure would be good. With just that simple judgement and knowing April is pointless, I would have to go with the Angels being the LA playoff team if I was picking one.

If people need proof of April being utterly irrelevant, here are the following stats, which are completely true; everything listed below was 100% accurate as of the final day of the month of April.

- The Oakland A's and the Colorado Rockies scored the most runs in the AL and NL respectively.

- Pittsburgh was in first place in the NL Central even though their run differential is way worse than both St. Louis and Cincinnati.

- Toronto was in last place in the AL East and the aforementioned Angels can claim only one more win than Houston.

- The Rockies had the most April wins in the entire National League. Let that one sink in for a minute.


If league standings and team results being bogus isn't enough for you, I have April player stats as well!

- John Buck was on pace for 54 home runs and 150 RBI. Seriously, John Buck.

- The following players had an OPS over 1.000: Dexter Fowler, Carlos Gomez, Wilin Rosario.

- Jake Westbrook leads all starters in ERA with a mark of 0.98.

- Clay Bucholz and Jon Lester combined to go 9-0 after going 20-22 last year.

- Jason Grilli, the Pirates' closer, leads the league in saves and is a perfect 10 for 10 in chances.


Oh, you say those statistics are too basic and are prone to dramatic ups and downs? Well, let's use some WAR (wins above replacement) numbers then. Now WAR is not perfect, we all know, but as an overarching stat, it is pretty damn good. Here are some April WAR numbers to take with a huge, gigantic grain of salt:

- Matt Wieters has a lower WAR than the following catchers: Yan Gomes, Michael McKenry, Welington Castillo and yes, I have never heard of at least two of those three men.

- Adam LaRoche, Paul Konerko and Allen Craig have been so bad (accumulating negative WAR scores), their teams would have technically been better off if they hadn't even played. Same goes for Adrian Beltre and Asdrubal Cabrera.

- Of qualifying players, Rickie Weeks and Maicer Izturis were the two worst second basemen in all of baseball in the month of April.

- David Freese ranked 52 out of 56 qualifying third basemen in WAR. Josh Donaldson ranked 5th.

- Kevin Correia is tied for the 7th best pitcher in baseball with a WAR of 1.5.

- Matt Cain is tied for the 7th worst mark with a WAR of -0.8.


So here we are, finally in the month of May. What is real and what is not from April baseball? Well, to summarize, everything from April is a joke and nothing is real. Whoever is in first place on April 30 probably won't be on August 30. Be patient; this is baseball after all.


DAN:
A week ago I would have agreed with you, putting the Angels in the playoffs over the Dodgers. Now, with one full month in the books, I'm taking the Dodgers. Two reasons for my support of the boys in blue and not our friends down in Anaheim. First, the Dodgers are five and half games back which is very doable at this point in the year. They've played poorly, but should get a big lift when their pitching arms return to the rotation. Also, this is the first full season that their batting lineup has played together, so some growing pains can be expected. I like their chances against the other NL West teams who are not scaring anyone.

The Angels on the other hand are nine games back. This makes it highly unlikely they will win the division, but does not put the wildcard out of the question. Yet Albert Pujols is going on the DL probably sooner than later. He's injured and can only gut through it for so long. Add to that the loss of their pitching ace and you have a team in a deep, deep hole.

The second reason I'm on board with the Dodgers is the competition they'll face. Like I said, no one in the NL West scares me and I give the Dodgers a real shot to capture the division crown. The Giants may hold on tight, but the Dodgers can capitalize on wins against the remaining division foes to secure a wildcard berth. The Angels, unfortunately, have their work cut of for them. Texas will win the division and the A's are no pushovers either. They played the Yankees really hard over the weekend and proved you can't overlook them. So the Angels need a wildcard spot, and they won't get one. The AL is too good once again.

Now to the crazy, yet real, stats you through out there. I'm going to tell you if any of them will still be true at the All Star break.

[Part two - MLB April stats mean NOTHING]