NBA Free Agency: Crying tears of Joy - Part one

NBA Free Agency: Crying tears of Joy - Part one
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (7-15-13)



DAN:
I needed some time for my tears to dry. Tears of JOY and SADNESS, but ultimately joy. As a former Bostonian who now calls Los Angeles home, I root for both the Celtics and Clippers. I'm like Bill Simmons, if he never watched basketball. More of a playoffs guy. Normally this causes little to no conflict of interest. Hell, the Clippers have stunk for forever. But NBA free agency threw pie in my face. Should I be happy the Clippers have an amazing new coach in Doc Rivers and re-signed Chris Paul, or sad that the Celtics lost an amazing coach in Doc Rivers, replaced him with a college guy from Butler, and dumped Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett in the process?

I think I'm actually happy about both things! The Clippers got better and possibly pushed themselves into the Western Conference Finals discussion. The Celtics got worse, exactly what they needed with a roster previously full of aged super stars. I do feel bad for Rajon Rondo, but ultimately he'll either get help in 2014 in Boston, or find himself on a new team that can't be worse than the current deconstructed Celtics.

So how about this NBA free agency, once again making waves? Doc to the Clippers. Pierce and Garnett to the Nets. Howard to Houston. Other people going places that the local fan bases care about. Good times.


TODD:
Now you know me. I'm more of an "other people going places" person. I don't have an affinity for the Celtics or Nets or Knicks or any of the bigwigs in the NBA. I kinda, sorta have a soft spot for Houston because I was always a Tracy McGrady fan and followed his career. But even still, I am more excited about James Harden taking another step than I am to see what Dwight Howard has left.

Is it just me or was that whole Dwight episode very bizarre? Did anyone watch him play last season? He wasn't even a top three center, let alone a top three guy overall. Give me Marc Gasol, Joakim Noah or, hell, I'd even think about Brook Lopez over him. He obviously makes the Rockets better, but not a championship favorite. And I am sorry to say that Doc Rivers doesn't make the Clippers one either. They still have no crunch-time lineup, no big men they feel comfortable playing down the stretch of games, and very few defensive-minded players in general. Those were problems that crept up last season and, although Doc may improve the team's overall defensive outlook, he doesn't improve J.J. Redick's on-ball defense or Blake Griffin's shot blocking or Deandre Jordan's free throw shooting. They should be a dynamic offensive team once again; they should not, however, be looked at as better than Oklahoma City.

In the end, the Western Conference has gotten much tighter all around but this idea that Houston and LA are going to battle in the conference finals seems a bit premature. In fact, I think the more interesting battle will be for the eighth spot. Minnesota and Portland seem much improved. Dallas is going for it. There are at least ten teams that are playoff-worthy and that isn't even counting the Lakers.

As for the East, and in the category of "other people going places," I am sky high on the Detroit Pistons. I've always had a fondness for Greg Monroe: an adept passing power forward who can step out and hit a jump shot. The entire league now has a fondness for Andre Drummond, yet another UConn product, following in the footsteps of Rudy Gay, who actually seems like a better NBA player than he ever was in college. Brandon Knight is a nice guard who just needs to find his position, either at the point or the two. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, their number one pick, was the best shooter in the draft and should immediately open up more room inside for everyone else. And adding Josh Smith to this mix is fascinating. Smith had the reverse-Dwight happen to him this offseason. For some reason, people were all about crushing his game. Whereas everyone overlooked what Howard was bad at (or no longer good at), people focused on the small aspects of Smith's game that are stomach-churning. However, his overall talent is outstanding and he is routinely one of the best seven or eight forwards in the game. No other player in the league today matches his production of points, rebounds, steals and blocks. I think he instantly makes Detroit a playoff team in the Eastern Conference.

What is interesting about this coming season is how many teams are actually going for those final playoff spots in each conference. There are a few squads who are (rightly) rebuilding. 2014 is a popular destination for tankers with the sky high prospects expected to enter the draft. However, there are a handful more teams who probably should be making themselves worse. Undoubtedly, different owners have different objectives, but what is Milwaukee or New Orleans going to do with that playoff berth if they get it?

There are a lot of pieces other than the actual road to the championship to consider for the 2013-2014 season. In fact, I can guarantee the race for the eighth seeds in each conference and the race for the worst overall record in the league will be much more interesting than that battle for the top spot next May.


DAN:
The Dwight Howard saga was utterly predictable. He is a big, fun loving personality that the win at all costs sports media can't seem to understand. Not all things are under our control and Dwight believes if a title comes his way, so be it, but he can't MAKE it happen. It must be his relaxed attitude that bothers people and has sparked way too many headlines, because if its anything else then I cry foul. He isn't wrong, and considering the competition, will need some major luck to even make the NBA Finals ever again. Kind of like how the marbles fell for the Spurs this post season.

As for the tankers and non tankers, you're spot on when it comes to the inevitably fierce battle for the 8th seed and worst overall record come next May. But the ultimate goal of every NBA team is unchanged and the most interesting thing will STILL be who can win the championship.

[Part two - Winners and Tankers]

Playoffs!? Lakers and Celtics - In or Out

Playoffs!? Lakers and Celtics - In or Out

by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (2-8-13)

[Part One from Monday]

TODD:

Treading in the middle of the league every year does nothing for you, so bottoming out seems logical for Boston. However, the only way this is accomplished is by dismantling the roster further, i.e. trading Paul Pierce. I'm sorry but he will not be retiring as a Celtic if Boston wants any chance at a top pick this summer.

If trading Pierce is the only way to actually, legitimately bottom out and give yourself a chance at a top five pick, do you do it? Do you want the Celtics to trade the beloved Pierce for a young player or a first round pick (or both)? Or, would you rather Boston finish eighth or ninth in the east? Pretend you're Danny Ainge for a second here and actually make a decision that has some weight to it. "Sucking so bad" doesn't just happen on its own; people must be sacrificed.

DAN:

Damn it, I'll put on my executive hat and pretend I'm Danny Ainge. Its so much more fun to be the fan and want the best of both worlds. As Ainge I most certainly trade Kevin Garnett or Paul Pierce. Both if I can. Its time to stock up on draft picks and raise the likely hood of ping pong balls before the season is a total loss and the team is stuck with the eighth seed in the east. Making the playoffs is probably the worst case scenario for the Celtics right now. Their old guys just get older with extra minutes, games, travel, etc. And we all know they aren't good enough to beat Miami.

The problem is, who would want either player? If I'm Ainge I blow the team up, but my only viable trade asset is now getting reconstructive knee surgery. His predicament is approaching NY Jets territory. Its not like Pierce or Garnett puts anyone over the top, except MAYBE the Knicks but they already have Jason Kidd. There is one fail safe here. General Manager David Kahn of the Minnesota Timberwolves. I rest my case.

It's funny how the exact opposite is true of the Los Angeles Lakers. They HAVE to make the playoffs at all costs and the worst possible situation for them is to miss out on that coveted eighth seed in the west. I see them making a very sloppy move at the trade deadline to upgrade in the hopes of 'salvaging' their season. Not that they can win anything either, but with the Clippers playing out of their minds the Lakers have to keep pace. Now you're GM Mitch Kupchak What do you do?

TODD:

Boston is infinitely more interesting here, but I'll be Kupchak in a minute. First though, I believe Kevin Garnett has a full no-trade clause, so moving him might prove difficult. There are certainly teams in the league who are one piece away and that piece is either a very good defensive and jump-shooting power forward or a solid, shot-creating, scoring small forward. Pierce and Garnett both have value left; it's just a matter of getting a young piece of value back to make it worth it to Boston. Watch as the phones start ringing.

As GM of the Lake Show, we have to make the playoffs, win at all costs. That may mean making a rather impulsive roster upheaval. However, the difference exists in June between these two teams. If the Lakers sneak in as the eighth seed in the west, they can win rounds in the playoffs. In most match-ups, they will have four of the best six players on the court. Assuming Nash and Howard and Gasol get healthy heading into the final weeks of the season, a Lakers squad come June would be a scary opponent to face. The problem is getting there.

If I am Mitch Kupchak, I trade Pau Gasol. I realize he is now injured, but that just makes letting him go even easier. They are not using him correctly anyways. He is a center and one of the best low-post scorers in the world. He eviscerated the American team in the Olympics playing for Spain. LA is not using him in that spot or allowing him to play to his strengths on offense. He is no 18-foot jump shooter and I am not sure why Lakers brass thinks he is.

If they could get an athletic power forward or some outside shooting for Pau, I think they do it. To make this even more likely, Gasol still has value to other teams in the league who realize he is a center playing as a stretch forward. He will be itching to start fresh, coming off his rehab on a new team. With the Lakers selling low, they should still be able to gain a worthy piece in return for the Spaniard. Whether it would be enough to overcome their dreadfully slow start remains to be seen.

DAN:

I agree that Pau is the Lakers best trade asset, but they would be CRAZY to trade him. With Pau now injured and Howard somewhat injured, they are in a tough spot. But in the games they've won over the last week its been Pau who led the team in scoring and rebounding. They need him whenever he returns. More important than this, I think its only 50/50 whether Dwight Howard signs with the team after the year. Pau is the better player, teammate and asset for the Lakers at this point. Unfortunately I think Dwight Howard is untradable. They are stuck with what they got.

I'm leaning towards the side of panic with the Lakers. My prediction, they seemingly figure things out but fail to make the playoffs. Cause meet effect. The team gets blown apart this summer.

[If you missed Part One from Monday]