NBA Free Agency: Crying tears of Joy - Part one

NBA Free Agency: Crying tears of Joy - Part one
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (7-15-13)



DAN:
I needed some time for my tears to dry. Tears of JOY and SADNESS, but ultimately joy. As a former Bostonian who now calls Los Angeles home, I root for both the Celtics and Clippers. I'm like Bill Simmons, if he never watched basketball. More of a playoffs guy. Normally this causes little to no conflict of interest. Hell, the Clippers have stunk for forever. But NBA free agency threw pie in my face. Should I be happy the Clippers have an amazing new coach in Doc Rivers and re-signed Chris Paul, or sad that the Celtics lost an amazing coach in Doc Rivers, replaced him with a college guy from Butler, and dumped Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett in the process?

I think I'm actually happy about both things! The Clippers got better and possibly pushed themselves into the Western Conference Finals discussion. The Celtics got worse, exactly what they needed with a roster previously full of aged super stars. I do feel bad for Rajon Rondo, but ultimately he'll either get help in 2014 in Boston, or find himself on a new team that can't be worse than the current deconstructed Celtics.

So how about this NBA free agency, once again making waves? Doc to the Clippers. Pierce and Garnett to the Nets. Howard to Houston. Other people going places that the local fan bases care about. Good times.


TODD:
Now you know me. I'm more of an "other people going places" person. I don't have an affinity for the Celtics or Nets or Knicks or any of the bigwigs in the NBA. I kinda, sorta have a soft spot for Houston because I was always a Tracy McGrady fan and followed his career. But even still, I am more excited about James Harden taking another step than I am to see what Dwight Howard has left.

Is it just me or was that whole Dwight episode very bizarre? Did anyone watch him play last season? He wasn't even a top three center, let alone a top three guy overall. Give me Marc Gasol, Joakim Noah or, hell, I'd even think about Brook Lopez over him. He obviously makes the Rockets better, but not a championship favorite. And I am sorry to say that Doc Rivers doesn't make the Clippers one either. They still have no crunch-time lineup, no big men they feel comfortable playing down the stretch of games, and very few defensive-minded players in general. Those were problems that crept up last season and, although Doc may improve the team's overall defensive outlook, he doesn't improve J.J. Redick's on-ball defense or Blake Griffin's shot blocking or Deandre Jordan's free throw shooting. They should be a dynamic offensive team once again; they should not, however, be looked at as better than Oklahoma City.

In the end, the Western Conference has gotten much tighter all around but this idea that Houston and LA are going to battle in the conference finals seems a bit premature. In fact, I think the more interesting battle will be for the eighth spot. Minnesota and Portland seem much improved. Dallas is going for it. There are at least ten teams that are playoff-worthy and that isn't even counting the Lakers.

As for the East, and in the category of "other people going places," I am sky high on the Detroit Pistons. I've always had a fondness for Greg Monroe: an adept passing power forward who can step out and hit a jump shot. The entire league now has a fondness for Andre Drummond, yet another UConn product, following in the footsteps of Rudy Gay, who actually seems like a better NBA player than he ever was in college. Brandon Knight is a nice guard who just needs to find his position, either at the point or the two. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, their number one pick, was the best shooter in the draft and should immediately open up more room inside for everyone else. And adding Josh Smith to this mix is fascinating. Smith had the reverse-Dwight happen to him this offseason. For some reason, people were all about crushing his game. Whereas everyone overlooked what Howard was bad at (or no longer good at), people focused on the small aspects of Smith's game that are stomach-churning. However, his overall talent is outstanding and he is routinely one of the best seven or eight forwards in the game. No other player in the league today matches his production of points, rebounds, steals and blocks. I think he instantly makes Detroit a playoff team in the Eastern Conference.

What is interesting about this coming season is how many teams are actually going for those final playoff spots in each conference. There are a few squads who are (rightly) rebuilding. 2014 is a popular destination for tankers with the sky high prospects expected to enter the draft. However, there are a handful more teams who probably should be making themselves worse. Undoubtedly, different owners have different objectives, but what is Milwaukee or New Orleans going to do with that playoff berth if they get it?

There are a lot of pieces other than the actual road to the championship to consider for the 2013-2014 season. In fact, I can guarantee the race for the eighth seeds in each conference and the race for the worst overall record in the league will be much more interesting than that battle for the top spot next May.


DAN:
The Dwight Howard saga was utterly predictable. He is a big, fun loving personality that the win at all costs sports media can't seem to understand. Not all things are under our control and Dwight believes if a title comes his way, so be it, but he can't MAKE it happen. It must be his relaxed attitude that bothers people and has sparked way too many headlines, because if its anything else then I cry foul. He isn't wrong, and considering the competition, will need some major luck to even make the NBA Finals ever again. Kind of like how the marbles fell for the Spurs this post season.

As for the tankers and non tankers, you're spot on when it comes to the inevitably fierce battle for the 8th seed and worst overall record come next May. But the ultimate goal of every NBA team is unchanged and the most interesting thing will STILL be who can win the championship.

[Part two - Winners and Tankers]

NFL Draft 2013: Part One - NY Jets, Revis & the Draft

NFL Draft 2013: Part One - NY Jets, Revis & the Draft
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (4-15-13)



TODD:
Rumor has it, Darrelle Revis might get dealt this month during the NFL draft. As a New York Jets fan, how does this make you feel? This seems ten times worse than the Bears releasing Brian Urlacher or the Ravens letting Ed Reed walk. Darrelle Revis is still really good. In fact, (sportswriter caveat warning) if he is fully healthy, Revis is the very best defensive back in the league. The BEST.

Do the Jets not believe he will ever return to his old form? Is that why he's been so clearly available? Do they think he will be past his prime by the time the Jets are ready to compete, thus trading him for assets makes more sense? Or is it something else?

Reportedly, the Jets want Tampa Bay's first round pick (13th overall) for the DB. According to ESPN Rumor Central, the Bucs want to wait until draft day and see who goes in the top twelve. If one of their targets drops, they might balk on the deal. But if no one strikes their fancy, they would pull the trigger for Revis. Of course, they have also offered a first round pick for the following draft and would be willing to throw in additional pieces for the Jets to take that offer. If you're New York, wouldn't you just assume add as many picks as possible (thus taking the 2014 first rounder) if you are going to go this route anyway?

In a larger sense, this type of deal happens all the time, in all the major sports. A star player gets dealt for draft picks and teams are always delighted to get the picks. But how often is that selection, even a first rounder, anything close to the player the star is? I get the idea of rebuilding but how come no one is ever able to rebuild with younger talent who is already in the league? You're telling me there is not a single cornerback in the NFL right now who is younger, cheaper but not as good as Revis that the Jets could obtain? Why wouldn't a contender be looking for that skill upgrade?


DAN:
Way to poke an open wound. Darrelle Revis is in my top three all time Jets I've had the pleasure to watch. He falls behind Curtis Martin and Ladainian Tomlinson. Martin is number one because we got him in his prime, while Tomlinson was singing his swan song. Both game changers, yet you could convince me Revis is number one and I wouldn't be upset about it. He is that dynamic, that powerful as a weapon and a shut down guy that he instantly makes the entire team better. Having BOTH Revis and Antonio Cromartie on the field was a dream that felt too good to be true and hasn't lasted.

Having said all that, it was agony the last time Revis held out for more money before the final year of his deal. This took place a mere two years ago and none of us, especially the Jets front office, have forgotten. Throw in the fact that the team was just awful last year, needs more new players than exist on the open market and have way too much long term money committed to junk, and you have a BIG problem. So what do you do? I don't want to see Revis leave, but I'm with the Jets on this one. I can't justify paying him what he wants and has definitely earned. The team needs too many other guys and one player on defense can't win anything. Let me stress however that I do not think the Jets made any effort to re-sign him, which pisses me off to no end.

I was reveling in the Rex Ryan era, having finally shook the stink of "The Same old Jets," but it seems that was short lived. The same old Jets do this. They make mistake after mistake and alienate their players it would seem. I'm going to speak with the assumption that the Jets have chosen not to re-sign Revis or play out the 2013 season with him on roster. This was apparent to me after they chose not to speak to him, stated publicly that no player was safe, and then stated publicly that Revis won't be traded. As we know, that means he will.

The Jets have to get as much as possible for the best defensive player of his generation. I don't think the ACL injury matters. With ample rehab time we've seen time and time again how players come back at equal or greater skill level. Most recently Adrian Peterson did just this. I'm going one step further and saying that getting draft picks is NOT enough. They need a player or two and two picks. I'm with you, get a young guy from the Bucs along with the pics. We all thought nothing could top the Butt Fumble, but this debacle is starting to. Here's my proposal for the trade:

Jets send Darrelle Revis and a fourth round pick in 2013 to the Bucs.
Tampa Bay sends their first round pick in 2014, their second round pick in 2013, their sixth round pick in 2013 and Player X to the Jets.

I don't know who Player X should be, but anyone is better than no one. Draft pics are like lottery tickets with a slightly better return. At least a player is a real human being. And we all know the Jets need real human beings playing for them. Conjecture and boasting won't catch and tackle for you. And neither will Mark Sanchez.... yeah I made the joke. Better I say it than you.


TODD:
It does seem rather difficult being a Jets fan. I wouldn't know personally as my favorite team has won multiple Super Bowls in the last ten years. But I can imagine... kind of.

Let's say the Jets do make your proposed trade. They send away Revis and a mid-round pick for a first rounder next year, a couple mid-rounders this year and a contributing, young player. Most likely, the most productive 2013 player will be that guy who has already played a couple seasons. With that in mind, who would the second round pick, or even the first round pick next season, have to be in order for this to work out well for New York? Taking a look at the big board, is there anyone you hope they are targeting?

[ Part Two - NY Jets picks and NY Giants preview]
[Part Three - NY Giants analysis & Draft day Predictions] 
[Part Four - Day one Gone Wrong]

More Fallout - NFL Free Agency Part Two

More Fallout - NFL Free Agency Part Two
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (3-29-13)

[Part One - The Fallout from NFL Free Agency begins]

TODD:

The interesting thing about how this free agency period has played out is what is happening to veterans who are still usable players. In years past, these guys would never have been released, let alone be wallowing in purgatory with no one wanting to offer more than a one year deal. But since the cap did not increase very much and all those old contracts which were agreed upon during different times (huge cap increases and huge rookie deals to boot) are getting expensive, teams are running out of room. Jake Long's second contract was for less money than his first. Has that ever happened for a perennial pro bowler before? Players who would normally return for public relations' sake (Ed Reed, James Harrison, Dwight Freeney, Brian Urlacher) are being let go because loyalty is not affordable anymore.

The longer this plays out, the cheaper players will become. In a few weeks time, we may look back at that Mike Wallace contract and scratch our heads at why Miami gave him $30 million guaranteed or why teams jumped on the Paul Krugers and Dashon Goldsons when they could have had someone who was 80% the player for 20% the price.

DAN:

Miami knew it had to overpay for Mike Wallace. They bought youth, and as you said, no one is paying for old age (veteran leadership) this off season. I don't think its fair to lump all of those veterans together though. And since when did Public Relations (PR) have any bearing on winning? Its all fine and dandy to have great PR, but no one will care or watch your team if they suck. Winning sells in life and the NFL. Winning comes with its own great PR and in the case of Ed Reed, the Ravens capitalized on the optimal time to cut ties with a diminishing return. They're the champs and have all the PR they need. On the flip side, James Harrison is a beast and the Steelers will regret letting him go. Same for Brian Urlacher, the Bears will regret that decision. He has a TON to prove and will do so admirably. I can't say the same for Dwight Freeney. He'll do well, but cutting him isn't the end of the world for the Colts.

What has shocked me is how quickly teams are snatching up the skill position players who were let go. Who needs Brian Urlacher anyways, lets go get ourselves a backup running back. The Titans signed Shonn Greene. Thanks for taking him off our hands! The Steelers signed Plaxico Burress. That won't end in good PR. What's appealing about these guys? And why is everyone ripping the teams who are letting them go? This brings me to the Jets. I am going to be the first, and possibly only, person to applaud their off season so far.

The New York Jets sucked last year. They sucked the year before too, but had the nice PR buzz of back to back AFC title games to cover up the smell. So what do you do with a crappy team? You tear it down and wave goodbye, piece by piece. I applaud their efforts to this end so far. Shonn Greene was an above average running back, but uninspired on the Jets. This team needs speed in the backfield and he was not the man for that job. They let countless other 'veterans' walk out the door and brought in a key veteran at quarterback, their black eye of a position. David Garrard has a lot to prove, so who better to spark Mark Sanchez and Tim Tebow into proving their own value. One of them is bound to recapture their past potential. I understand your skepticism, but with the ninth pick in the draft the Jets are positioning themselves for future success.

Now back to the league at large. There is always turnover year to year, but until the draft happens in April, I'm not ready to crown anyone the next great team to go from worst to first. Teams like the Cowboys, usually loud this time of year, have been surprisingly quiet. What are you planning Jerry? This thing is just getting started.

TODD:

Free agency is indeed just getting started. There are still dozens of players available who can make a difference for a team on the threshold of the playoffs. But haven't we learned anything about this league? Teams make 'The Leap' for no reason whatsoever. The off-season winners rarely translate, like Philadelphia of recent fame. People's favorite sleepers do not materialize; hello Carolina. And big leaps in wins are generated almost arbitrarily based on who stays healthiest and gets the best play from their quarterback.

Even more so than free agency, the draft does a good job of filling us in on who will make strides towards greatness. The problem is that we do not find out who wins a draft until years later. The only thing made immediately evident is when teams mess up, like Cleveland last season. Kansas City this year has a chance to make a pretty nice leap towards playoff contention. We won't find out if the draft helped them until much later, but we might know right away whether they screwed it up and set themselves back a season or two.

DAN:

You're ability to abstain from having any real opinion here is impressive. I agree that Free Agency is mostly hype and while you choose to ignore it, I see it in reverse. The GREAT free agent signings are truly the ones you mentioned, the ones that don't make headlines, because offensive and defensive lines win championships. The signings that make the headlines should be viewed in reverse. Name me one big free agent signing that pushed a team to a level they weren't already at. Do it. I dare you!

There is always the exception, but the rule here is that off season spending, unlike in basketball and baseball where one or two guys can swing a division, is just for fun. If I was a betting man, I'd bet against the big spenders. Hence my view of the Dolphins and Titans. Neither team was good last year, both average at best. Yet now they've made a leap? Did they get a new coach that I'm unaware of? How about a new quarterback? No. Then no leap for you.

Final fallout for me from this free agency frenzy, the NFC East has been unbelievably quiet. I know I said it earlier, but all the teams were good last season and a key play-maker would help any one of them. The Giants resigned a few guys and are struggling to resign a few more, the Cowboys resigned a few guys too, but keeping your existing talent is hardly a headline. What gives? This division is glam and slam, at least it use to be. Come on Jerry, don't let Dez Bryant have all the headlines!


TODD:
One big free agent signing pushed a team over the top just last season. The Seattle Seahawks signed quarterback Matt Flynn to a huge, new contract, after seeing him have just one impressive start at the end of the prior year. This certainty at the QB position allowed Seattle to then draft a building-block signal-caller in the middle rounds of the NFL draft, someone they knew would not need to start right out of the gate. This man, Russell Wilson, then went to start right out of the gate of course and brought Seattle to the playoffs. Without the Matt Flynn signing, Seattle would have felt the need to draft a quarterback earlier, one they thought could start week one. Instead, they waited to get the man they wanted for the future and he...started week one...okay yeah this is a lackluster example. Big name free agent signings NEVER work out! That's why I said it is pointless to make team predictions off of March movement.

I disagree about the NFC East though. Sure this division is not the cream of the crop it has been in years past. The Eagles struggled mightily; the Cowboys and Giants both took steps back. But just because this division is not making headlines doesn't mean they aren't making moves.

The Redskins have been very quiet this month, but their team rests on the health of their young quarterback. And they cut DeAngelo Hall, which is probably a bigger addition by subtraction than any signing could have been.

The Cowboys made some under-the-radar moves, which is a good thing for them. Being on the ESPN.com front page doesn't directly translate to wins, as Jerry Jones is finding out. Bringing in players like Ernie Sims, Justin Durant and Will Allen on short-term, low-risk contracts is a net positive for Jerry's World.

Philadelphia made a boatload of changes this off-season. They let a number of talented players who underachieved for them go: Cullen Jenkins, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Nnamdi Asomugha. Meanwhile, they added more pieces than they lost with the additions of versatile back James Casey, Patrick Chung, Kenny Phillips and Cary Williams in the defensive backfield, and Connor Barwin in the linebacking corp. The Eagles have already had a very active off-season before the draft has even taken place.

And the New York Giants have made many smart moves, as GM Jerry Reese has become known for. They had to release a bevvy of useful players because of cap reasoning. It would have been nice to bring back Chris Canty, Osi Umenyiora, Michael Boley, Martellus Bennett and others. However, they simply could not afford to. The Giants ended up having over 20 players become free agents. To overcome the losses, the front office did their homework to acquire cheaper options who should contribute. With the likes of Dan Connor and Brandon Myers being added to fill gaping holes as well as the Giants bringing back key players on the offensive line, the team is in great shape as long as Victor Cruz does not get scooped up by another team as a restricted free agent.

Sure these weren't the most newsworthy moves. But as we've said, the moves that were making news were stupid. There is no football league where a Shonn Greene signing should be worth mentioning. Nothing against him, but he kind of sucks at being an NFL-caliber starting tailback.

[Part One - The Fallout from NFL Free Agency begins]

NFL Free Agency Fallout: How Insane was that? - Part One

NFL Free Agency Fallout: How Insane was that? - Part One

by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (3-25-13)

DAN:

March Madness is in full swing, but the real drama in March is NFL Free Agency! Its time to talk free agency fallout, and this year its like the sky is literally falling on some teams, while others are floating up to heaven.

Free Agency began on March 12th. I want your instant reaction to the insanity that took place over those first 48 hours. The initial bombing raid, if you will, that has left the NFL in complete shock and recovery mode two weeks later.

TODD:

That was quite a flurry, wasn't it? The NFL is definitely better than any of the other sports at drumming up interest around free agency movement since so many quality players get cut every year. This is directly related to the fact that contracts are not all guaranteed and teams often bring back their own players on new deals, but still. We never get to see anything like this in basketball or baseball where teams cannot afford to release players underperforming their deals.

A funny thing that developed though is who made news in those first few days. A lot of good players switched teams, but not all of them were headline worthy according to...somebody. The big names were all at skill positions, offensive players. I don't know why I expected anything less, but I had to actually do some hunting to learn about the other quality players moving around.

Who we did hear about were the wide receivers and the running backs, and there was a lot of movement in those two departments. It is certainly fun to learn who moved where, for fantasy purposes mostly. But I am not sure these moves have as much football weight as some of the other positions. Other than perhaps Reggie Bush, Wes Welker or the top guys at each spot, the rest are just names we know but impacts we will probably forget.

Instead, the real meat of free agency happens between the tackles on offense and on the other side of the ball. Jake Long signed with the Rams, providing aid to a seriously depleted unit; Will Beaty and Phil Loadholt returned to their respective teams, while Jermon Bushrod and Gosder Cherilus did not. On the defensive side, Adrian Wilson went to the Patriots; Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie went to the Broncos; Connor Barwin moved to the Eagles while Cullen Jenkins moved to the Giants. These moves (along with many others) should have headlined free agency ahead of Shonn Greene or Rashard Mendenhall news.

There are a ton of players who still remain unsigned, but taking a quick scope of things overall, it seems like the Patriots made out pretty well...like always. They lost Danny Woodhead but upgraded that spot to Leon Washington. They lost Wes Welker but stood firm by adding Danny Amendola. Patrick Chung left the defensive backfield but the Pats filled that hole with the addition of Wilson while also bringing back Kyle Arrington and Aqib Talib.

On the other hand, the Baltimore Ravens managed to lose player after player from their Super Bowl squad, and haven't really done much to replace them. Ray Lewis and Anquan Boldin are gone. It appears as though Ed Reed is too. Cary Williams, Paul Kruger, Dannell Ellerbe and Ma'ake Kemoeatu all left as unrestricted free agents while Bernard Pollard and Dennis Pitta may too move on through different means.

But, on the plus side, they made Joe Flacco the highest paid player in the history of the sport. So there's always that ($$$).

DAN:

The NFL is definitely great television, no matter if games are being played or not. I must insert a caveat however, I'm SICK and TIRED of hearing EVERY SINGLE ESPN correspondent's opinion on the EXACT same story. I mean seriously, what the hell? You mean to tell me that the guys from Numbers Never Lie, Sportscenter, First Take, Mike and Mike and NFL Live all want to discuss how Revis Island may get traded? Or how Wes Welker is now a Bronco? Come on ESPN, if I learned anything out of this flurry of NFL news its that you're their bitch. I love the updates, but find something else to talk about. I can't listen to the same story and opinion all day long. I'm going to turn the channel.

But enough about ESPN. The NFL is what's really in upheaval, or at least that's what they want you to think. Besides the unparalleled gutting of the Baltimore Ravens, not much has changed. I'll address the Ravens first. They were old. They muscled out a Super Bowl championship and now they're getting younger. Flacco aside, he's now doomed to go down as the worst signing in Raven's history, they aren't paying for old guys and will slide gracefully into a rebuilding year.

Otherwise, like you noted, many MANY players have switched teams. The Broncos are better with Welker, the Seahawks are better with Percy Harvin and the 49ers are still very very good. The Patriots have also remained atop the AFC. What's changed? The teams that were good last year have made moves to keep them that way. Teams that were bad, like the Jets, are actually making the smart decision to get younger and dump as many of the players that made up their crappy team as possible.

I will call out the Dolphins as the lone exception here. Much like the Redskins in years past, they have managed to vastly improve their team on paper. I call BS. This is still a slightly above average team fighting for its life in a division with Bill Belichick and Tom Brady. They'll be lucky to win nine games next year.

[Final Fallout - NFL Free Agency Part Two]