NFL 2nd Quarter: Playoffs! In or Out - Part two

NFL 2nd Quarter: Playoffs! In or Out - Part two
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (11-1-13)

[Part one - The 8 game story (Power Rankings)]



TODD:
After that Seattle performance on Monday night, I would certainly consider moving the Seahawks below those AFC squads you mentioned. Their offense looked pitiful and relying on the return of Percy Harvin to change that seems shortsighted. However, I would also bump St. Louis up a few spots. Their defensive line is terrifying, like Super Bowl New York Giants level terrifying. It is sad that Bradford is gone; I would have liked to see how good this team could have been.

Perhaps we will touch on this more in our injury discussion next week, but with Bradford, Cutler, and even the Brian Hoyer injury changing the entire ceiling of a team, it is disappointing that so much depends on the health of just one man. Now I more clearly understand why announcers always freak out at quarterbacks when they don't slide correctly or don't scamper out of bounds. I guess you could throw Buffalo and Tennessee in that group as well.

But as for our second half NFL outlook, as you mentioned, the top seems set. We both like Denver, KC, New England, Indy and Cincinnati in the AFC with little competition for those five spots. The NFC, in my mind, is also just as set for the top five with New Orleans, Seattle, San Fran, Green Bay and Detroit. With the Jay Cutler injury and the guys going down on that Chicago defense, they are out and I believe the only NFC playoff spot still up for grabs is the NFC East division winner. Obviously Dallas has the head start there, but I am not willing to rule out Washington or even the Giants quite yet.

You have Green Bay, Carolina, Chicago, Detroit and Dallas all lumped together. Who do you have making the playoffs out of those? Obviously you feel stronger about Dallas taking the East, so where are your NFC wild cards? I like Carolina even more than you but to me, they are just the odd team out this season.

And who gets that last spot in the AFC? It is pretty wide open. You like the AFC East teams A LOT more than I do. Did you not watch any games this past Sunday? Specifically the Jets and Bills games? They were bloodbaths. Last weekend soured me to that whole division, even New England being an elite playoff squad. I don't know how you can claim the Jets or Dolphins would beat the Redskins or Falcons or even Browns when everyone is playing well. You're backing horses on the decline. The Wild Card front runners have to be either San Diego, Baltimore or Tennessee at this point.


DAN:
It certainly is pretty glaring this season, how a single injury can derail a team. But this is nothing new. Its why the NFL mantra over the past five plus years has been to make it to Thanksgiving above .500 and get lucky down the stretch. This plays a huge factor into my power rankings. The teams that have already found their bad luck won't be competing much come weeks 15 to 17.

We agree that only one AFC playoff spot is readily available. I'm still not sold completely on the Bengals. They are one Jay Cutler like injury away from being on the outside, looking in. Sure, sure, they blew the Jets off the field on Sunday, but their offense is AJ Green heavy and needs Dalton to throw it to him. I'm worried. That final spot is anyone's to have at this point. I do like both Miami and the Jets a lot, mainly because their defenses are strong. Both teams are excellent when good and down right unwatchable when bad. They need to find consistency over the next month, or they will get beat out by the likes of San Diego. I'm pretty low on the Browns and Ravens. I just don't see much fire on a consistent basis. And Tennessee just doesn't scare me. If I had to pick one team to grab the final spot as of today, I'd take San Diego. But the Jets are a close second. They have the most penalties in the league. You clean up that mess and watch out.

In the NFC things got shakier on Monday night. But only slightly. Much like the Jets on Sunday, Seattle chose not to show up for the game. Unlike the Jets, they are actually a dominant team good enough to win in spite of themselves. We agree on the top five in the conference, but I disagree with you on the NFC East. Did you watch Dallas play Detroit? Sure, the Cowboys find lots of ways to lose games on a consistent basis. But they are a damn good team on offense, much better than those other 'teams' in the east division. Not to put down your Giants, but the hole they find themselves in is too deep. Its not happening. So where does that leave us? I actually think, with how Seattle performed on Monday night, the wildcard spots are going to be a dog fight. Don't count out Chicago, their defense puts up too many points. The Bears will be fighting with Green Bay and Detroit for the division. Throw Seattle and Carolina in there and we have ourselves some real drama. I do think Carolina falls short and Detroit actually takes the division from Green Bay and the Bears. Who's in? Green Bay and Seattle, as expected. Just don't rule out some week 17, edge of your seat matchups just yet.

The season thus far has surprised me pleasantly. Teams I wanted to be better, like Detroit and Carolina and the Jets, are actually showing signs of actual power. And teams I plainly don't care for, like the Eagles and Buffalo Bills, are wallowing in a sea of self pity. Thank you NFL.


TODD:
Maybe you're right about me being too hard on Dallas. But I get a bit of a feeling about them that you had about Carolina. They just seem to lose late. And until they are mathematically eliminated, I will never count out the Giants. They are the most unpredictable team in football, and have been for close to a decade now. Anytime they are counted on, they fail; and anytime they are counted out, they surprise. So I'm not ready to give the NFC East to Dallas, even if they are the most talented team in that division.

I am with you though on savoring the sweet failure of Philadelphia. It tastes good.


DAN:
Tastes good like Pumpkin beer. Very very good.

[If you missed Part one - The 8 game battle (Power Rankings)]

NFL Kickoff: A QB decathlon, rookies & the NY Giants - Part four

NFL Kickoff: A QB decathlon, rookies and the NY Giants - Part four
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (8-16-13)

[Part one - Off season questions Real & Hilarious]
[Part two - Tebow vs Hernandez]
[Part three - The fantasy kicker & Barry Sanders]



DAN:
The jury is out on whether the New York Jets have a legit number one running back on their roster, but at the very least they have two number twos and a number three. McKnight is the obvious number three since he can barely stay healthy at this point. I only have to look across the division to the Patriots to find a team that has thrived with number two and three backs over the last five seasons. Obviously their ability to succeed has everything to do with the offensive line and Tom Brady, but an elite running back is not a requirement for success. You need a consistent back who gets the three yards on second or third down. I'm all in on Marty Mornhinweg's offense and the emergence of Geno Smith to Steven Hill.

Enough about my optimism for an enjoyable season of football coming out of New York in the AFC. You asked two fun questions and I'm stacking them like PB&J.

You asked:
(4) If Russell Wilson, Andrew Luck, Colin Kaepernick and Robert Griffin III played 2 on 2 in a decathlon-type event, what would the teams be, which side would win, who would America be rooting for, and would they all be immediately inducted into the respective Halls of Fame for each sport they participated in?

(4b) How much does it suck for all current and future first year starting quarterbacks?

I know you're going with even numbers, but I gotta throw Cam Newton in their as well (2nd year last season I know, but an excellent first year). He's lightening fast and ideal for any decathlon-type event. Let's reserve him for an injury replacement, or the guy who plays on both teams in order to balance things out.

The Teams:
Andrew Luck & Russell Wilson: Luck is sneaky fast and quite possibly a genius with a rocket arm. Wilson is nothing short of blazing fast with an unrivaled stop and go. His height could hold him back teamed with anyone else. But with Luck and Wilson, intelligence and speed compliment perfectly.

Colin Kaepernick and Robert Griffin III: Both Colin and RG3 are blazing fast. I'd give Colin the edge in speed, but RG3 the edge in the stop and go. They beat team Luck and Wilson easily in a shorter relay, but neither man wins in a straight up sprint or long jump vs. Wilson. This team has obvious strengths, but few to no weaknesses either. Power and speed baby.

Cam Newton: He's a beast and wicked fast. If there's a sprint event, I say Cam subs in for Luck. But if its the javelin throw or discus toss, we get Cam in there for RG3. He's the wildcard.

Who's America rooting for? I think Luck and Wilson make for easier rooting interests. I love rooting for Wilson, just as much as I do for RG3. But Luck is so much more fun to root for than Colin. Its all in the smile. Luck's is warm and inviting while Colin's says "Hey you, you stink and I'm the winner." As for the victors, if its a straight up competition then Colin and RG3 win close. With Cam Newton as the wildcard, however, team Luck and Wilson get the trophy.

To the current and future first year starting quarterbacks, I know why you asked, but you've got it all wrong. Yes, these four men (or five with Cam Newton) had stellar season's in their first year starting. They raised the bar and set it quite high. But they all had either an excellent team around them, a stellar coach, or both. Luck's team was young, but it was no slouch. I think Cam might be the only one who thrived without either one.

So this year's rookies and first year starters know everyone is pulling for them. No more holding a guy's hand or making him ride the bench for an entire season so he can "learn" from the current number one guy. That philosophy only works if your current starting quarterback is half way decent and has something to teach the newbie.

The whole crux of your question is why I'm so optimistic about the Jets' future. No one should be learning much of anything from Mark Sanchez at this point, unless its what not to do in order to alienate a nation and make a fool of yourself. So where does that leave Geno Smith this season? I think he's is prime position to succeed. If he shines then he'll get praised and lauded like the field general he is. Prolonged success is not a guarantee after one good season any longer, so we celebrate what we have when we have it. But if he stumbles, well he is just a rookie. If he doesn't start until week three or four, well he's a rookie and you don't want to rush him. The caveats still exist, but the opportunity for bigger things have never been bigger. Geno, Geno!


TODD:
Your team pairing was interesting. I agree that Colin Kaepernick seems like he might possibly be a dick. Griffin would be slightly upset that he was put on Kaepernick's team...up until the competition started. I think Colin might be the strongest of the four and just as fast as any of the others. He and RGIII would run away with this thing, literally and figuratively.

The real point of this silly line of questioning though was to get to that second part: how it feels to be a first-year starting quarterback in today's NFL. It used to be that rookies could sit for weeks, or even years, before getting thrown behind center. Or, if they did start from week one, they were given weeks (or even years!) to learn the job and get their bumps and bruises. Common perception was it took a while for a rookie QB so we shouldn't judge his success for a while. Now, things are completely different, and I think this works against Geno Smith, not for him.

In years past, someone like Blaine Gabbert would still have upside. Sure, he's struggled but he's not supposed to succeed out of the gate. Now, the Jags and everyone else in the world has all but given up on him as an NFL-caliber player. Quarterbacks come out of high school more polished nowadays. That translates to being further ahead as freshmen and sophomores in college, and so forth. Now, these guys enter the pros with years of experience running an offense, changing things at the line of scrimmage, and being leaders. It now seems obvious Blaine Gabbert cannot run a franchise just because of how his peers are doing at similar points in their careers.

If Geno Smith is able to start in week one, he has to succeed rather quickly or else people will doubt his ceiling, some wackos will clamber for Mark Sanchez to be put in and it will be a struggle to just remain confident, let alone play well. On the other hand, if Geno sits week one, as crazy as this may have sounded even just three years ago, people will wonder if he doesn't have what it takes and whether the Jets actually believe in him.

It is a strange world out their now for rookie quarterbacks. The buffer zone has disappeared.

As for my last query, into the New York Giants linebacking corp, I am sure you are giddy to throw a backhanded analogy in my face to rival my Barry Sanders line of questioning. But, as in proper rap battle technique, I am going to bring it up first, to take the weapon out of your hand.

Yes, the Giants seemed to have eschewed the linebacker position in favor of bodies who will wear numbers in the 50's on their backs. So, if David Harris came out of retirement for the Jets, he would be able to start for the Giants probably....

Oh, David Harris is not retired? He was just so inconspicuous and made so few plays last season for the Jets that it seemed like he was, even though he is one of the highest paid linebackers in the NFL? Okay, my bad.


DAN:
Hold up, what just happened? Stop! The Giants have a serious problem on their hands when it comes to defense and I can tell you're scared to death what will happen. You decided to throw egg in my face rather than actually talk Giants football. I'll take this opportunity to puff out my chest and say the Jets' defense is damn good and will totally rival the Giants unit this season. Your team is in trouble.

If the Giants were in the AFC East (in place of the Jets) they'd be fine. We know they can beat the Patriots and Tom "Oh my knee!" Brady, standing tall in a shootout and making enough plays to pull out the games. The rest of the division is average at best, and I'm talking stinky socks average. But in the NFC East, with the likes of RG3, Tony Romo and Michael Vick to contend with, the Giants lack of speed and talent at linebacker is going to kill them. Stopping the run is all well and good if the opposing quarterback stays in the pocket, but those three guys live on the edge, outside the tackles.

My prediction, a rocky 9-7 season for the Giants, maybe 10-6. I don't love anyone in their division, so they'll win games, but just prepare yourself for some indigestion and long Sunday afternoons.

[If you missed Part one - Off season questions Real & Hilarious]

[If you missed Part two - Tebow vs Hernandez]

[If you missed Part three - The fantasy kicker & Barry Sanders]

NFL Kickoff: Off season questions Real & Hilarious - Part one

NFL Kickoff: Off season questions Real & Hilarious - Part one
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (8-5-13)



TODD:
The NFL is perfecting its takeover of the entire calendar year. We start with training camp and preseason in August through to the regular season and playoffs. The Super Bowl is played in February. From there comes free agency, player movement and draft talk through April-May. After that is finalization of rosters, more player movement and preseason news through the summer. Parts of this takeover are more fun (the NFC West royalty) than others (the Aaron Hernandez story). But either way, the National Football League now lasts 12 months a year.

With that preamble out of the way, let's dive into a myriad of questions that currently surround the league.

First, and possibly most importantly, with concussion research and player safety in the front of everyone's mind, is it realistic that this league eventually folds, AKA no longer exists, like some people have opined? Perhaps not in the next decade, but in our lifetime is there ever not going to be an NFL?

On a smaller scale, we can get into who will win the Super Bowl, what happens to the Patriots offense, who's the surprise team of the year and the biggest disappointment, etc. But those aren't the questions people are clambering for. Not yet at least. Here's what fans are really wondering:

(1) From a pure popularity standpoint, as in most interest by the most people, which New England story was actually bigger news, Aaron Hernandez or Tim Tebow?

(2) Is this finally the year fantasy football leagues realize using a kicker as a scoring position is almost entirely irrelevant and luck-based?

(3) If Barry Sanders came out of retirement today, could he be the starting running back for the New York Jets?

(4) If Russell Wilson, Andrew Luck, Colin Kaepernick and Robert Griffin III played 2 on 2 in a decathalon-type event, what would the teams be, which side would win, who would America be rooting for, and would they all be immediately inducted into the respective Halls of Fame of each sport they participated in?

(4b) How much does it suck for all current and future first year starting quarterbacks?

(5) Do the New York Giants actually eschew the linebacker position entirely this season and go with an unconventional 5-0-6 alignment? ...Huh, oh, no one is actually wondering this other than me?


DAN:
Whoa, whoa, whoa, someone just exploded a four part NFL debate in my face! I see six valid questions and one that is complete horse manure.

A thought on your preamble, the NFL is definitely expanding itself across all twelve months of the calendar and there is no better time for this to happen. Its popularity couldn't be higher and the potential for making money is still growing. Yet I worry for the league, and not because of the concussion issue which I'll get to in a minute. I worry because too much of a good thing is a cliche for a reason. If you eat too much ice cream you get a brain freeze and swear off it for a week. If you drink too much you puke, wake up with a hang over and wish you never knew what alcohol was. My point, we as Americans are reaching a saturation point with football. Its not just the NFL, but college football in conjunction with the NFL is inescapable.

There will be a breaking point, a moment in time where each fan says "Enough!" I can't take anymore football and need a break. Sports were built this way to start out. You had an off season with few to no stories to tell, so by the time training camp came around you were clamoring for some football or baseball or what not. Expanding to twelve uninterrupted months of football news and notes and crap involving the legal system is dangerous territory. ESPN and the like need things to talk about, I get it, and the NFL can still make more money. I get that too. But I worry, will enough be enough or will it never be enough?

How about that first question. The league is not going to fold. That's completely unrealistic. Sports are a part of American culture and football is at the forefront. It has been our entire lives. Our father's generation had baseball in the lead and our kid's generation might have the NBA, if trends continue. But the major sports are staying put in our society. No one is shutting down or boycotting the NFL and the game will get safer. Hell, its infinitely safer then when I played in high school. Rules alone, not to mention equipment, make it harder to get seriously injured. Plus, more importantly, there is something about men that makes them want to inflict pain on one another. I'm not saying we want to injure other men, just bruise them and push them around a bit. It's why boxing gyms are so popular, even if the sport has leveled off. Its also why MMA has blown up. The NFL is like Mixed Martial Arts with a full body suit and too many rules to count. Plus, hold onto this ball. Men love this! We aren't letting it go, just allowing it to change to appease the women of the world.

I'd like to issue a half apology in advance for being semi-sexist. Just covering my bases.


TODD:
The saturation point seems far off with the way things are transpiring, but certain actions are on the horizon that may expedite this process. Expanding the league into other countries, which already happens once a year, is going to get kicked up a notch. Multiple games will be played overseas. There may even be a franchise located in a country outside of North America. So not only will American football be a full-year sport in America but in other parts of the world as well.

On a side note, if the NFL expands past Europe and into Latin speaking countries, I'm not quite sure what they will call it. Futbol is already taken and we know first hand how confusing it is when soccer fans call soccer futbol here in the states.

[Part two - Off season questions 'Tebow vs. Hernandez']
[Part three - The fantasy kicker & Barry Sanders] 
[Part four - A QB decathlon, rookies & the NY Giants]

NFL Draft 2013: We're all winners Here - Part one

NFL Draft 2013: We're all Winners Here - Part one
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (4-29-13)



TODD:
You were right. The second round and into the weekend of the draft was exciting... perhaps more exciting than Thursday night. There were quarterbacks taken rapid fire, running backs not named Lacy kept getting picked, teams traded up for big names, and luckily all the offensive linemen were taken in round one so there were actually some skill position players coming off the board.

In the end, I think the Giants' draft turned out very well. They addressed every need other than linebacker. I enjoyed the Nassib pick as well. And, in my opinion, there is no better selection on draft day than taking a previously highly-touted player who's stock has dropped. Damontre Moore in round three might not pan out, but he was originally predicted as an early first round pick for a reason. It was worth the risk at pick 81 for sure.

Although things are looking good, the Giants certainly did not have the best draft out of anyone. That distinction belongs to the St. Louis Rams.

Of course, you better have a top tier draft when you have two first round picks. But not messing up with those two first round picks isn't always a given. (That was not a shot at the Jets even though it seems particularly obvious that it hints at such a diss.) The Rams came into this draft needing tons of help on offense and in the defensive backfield. They addressed need number one by trading up for Tavon Austin, the best wide receiver in the draft. To build on a strength, they also selected Austin's teammate Stedman Bailey. If Sam Bradford weren't happy enough, the Rams added Barrett Jones up front and a late-round running back.

On the other side of the ball, St. Louis nabbed Alec Ogletree, the best inside linebacker in this draft. And they got him way down at pick number 30. Safety TJ McDonald was then selected in round three to help sure up the defensive backs. This team is by no means a finished product, but with help on both sides of the ball, the NFC West is not guaranteed to be just a two team race anymore.

I also liked what Green Bay and Tennessee did during the draft. Who do you think had the best draft though? We know the answer is not the Jets.


DAN:
I'm hesitant to name an out right winner when so much is unknown, but our New York teams definitely hit the mark in my opinion. I'm going to smoothly agree with your Giants and Rams analysis. Both teams filled major holes and should rebound nicely next season. But the meat of the draft and of today is my NewYork Jets. They may not have had the best draft, but they did a great job overall. Woo! More relevancy.

The Jets nailed this draft for me the fan. Not only did they fill two major defensive holes. They replaced Revis as best as anyone could hope for and added a pash rusher. Not only did they add depth to a paper thin offensive line and trade for a proven running back. Both moves are pretty sweet. The Jets stole top ten level talent in the second round by drafting Geno Smith at quarterback. I was shocked when he didn't go in the first round. I was nearly as surprised to see Geno fall to the Jets in round two as I was for Milliner to fall to them in round one. And today they cleared all the junk out of the trunk by releasing Tim Tebow. If Mark Sanchez gets released next week we'll have a clean sweep! Realistically the Jets will wait to see how David Garrard's health pans out, but this team is making moves.

I couldn't have asked for more. The Jets cleaned out the proverbial house of as much of last year's team as possible. Thank you!

The rest of the league mostly improved on paper, but not to poke a sleeping giant, did the Patriots forget to show up? This could prove to be the AFC East's biggest win of the weekend.

[Part two - Losers, there are Always Losers]

NFL Draft 2013: Part Four - Day one Gone Wrong

NFL Draft 2013: Part Four - Day one Gone Wrong
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (4-26-13)

[Part One - NY Jets, Revis and the Draft]
[Part Two - NY Jets picks and Giants preview]
[Part Three - NY Giants analysis & Draft day predictions]



Actual NY Jets and Giants picks:

NY Jets: Dee Milliner (DB, Alabama) and Sheldon Richardson (DT, Missouri)
NY Giants: Justin Pugh (OT, Syracuse)


Seesaw Sports Predictions:

- Jets select Dee Milliner with the ninth pick (Money in the bank!)
- Giants thin at offensive line but even thinner at linebacker
- Three quarterbacks chosen in first round (Umm.... excuse us a moment)
- Tebow gets traded during the draft (It could still happen!)
- Cleveland botches their first round pick (Barkevious Mingo, DE, practical)
- Linebackers plummet (Three were selected, hardly plummeting)
- Tight ends selected equals Wide receivers selected (Three WR to one TE)
- Mel Kiper's hair looks tremendous (Duh)



TODD:
Well, we pretty much botched all our predictions but the more important point here is this: has the NFL draft gone the way of the NFL playoffs; is it even possible to predict this shit anymore?? Where most things in other sports are becoming more transparent and more sensible with all the information and statistics we now have at our disposal, it seems the NFL is somehow immune to this development.

I mean, right off the bat, the number one overall pick was a semi-surprise. Everyone knew Kansas City was going to select Luke Joeckel number one. I think they may have taken Fisher instead simply to stick it to mock drafters. Why else would they take someone who plays the same position but isn't quite as good?

From there, things were going okay, with some interesting trades sprinkled in, until Buffalo picked at 18. Everyone figured the Bills would take a quarterback in round one. We thought it would happen with the eighth pick. Instead, they traded back knowing they would still get their man and they were right because their man, EJ Manuel, was not expected to be taken by anybody until the weekend.

I'm fine with what the Giants did even though I was really hoping Jarvis Jones was going to fall to them; you must be very happy with how things played out for the Jets, especially getting their Revis-replacement. But overall, is the NFL draft about misinformation more than any other event in all of sports? Do teams purposely release info to confuse us (and opponents)? This seems to be the smartest thing a GM could do but it also seems to go against every reason that Twitter and the internet and Adam Schefter exist.


DAN:
Our Jets and Giants breakdowns were solid across the board. We mixed in our desires with actual team needs and its actually refreshing that team needs won out mostly. I'm thrilled that Milliner fell to the Jets at nine. He is a solid defensive back and will be mentored by one of the best in the game, Cromartie. As for the defensive line selection, I can't argue with striving to increase the Jets poor sack and quarterback pressure numbers from last season. They got crushed up front all year long. If the team goes strong offense in rounds two and three I'm happy. Otherwise, ignoring one of the many offensive linemen in the first round could prove costly for the Jets.

On the Giants front you nailed the glaring need at offensive line, which they promptly filled. For your sake I hope they go linebacker in round two, but that might be a reach at this point.

Overall round one was a snooze fest. Teams are getting smart and with the linemen being the cream of this draft's crop, teams snatched them up. It made for bad television however. To your point, I think much of the misinformation we get leading up to the draft is designed to build buzz. The NFL is the king of buzz, king of headlines and king of the media. They turned their draft into a three day holiday practically, and the build up of buzz is integral to this. They must be licking their chops right now heading into the second round. The first round is always gold for television ratings, no matter who is selected. We got the EJ Manuel pick which was exciting and kind of surprising. After hearing him on ESPN this week I thought he was a true stud, smart and centered. But now day two is upon us and the treasure trove of stud players is enormous. All the 'name' talent who were reaches in round one are steals in round two and the NFL is left with a tremendously exciting second day of coverage. Manti and Geno are still around, not to mention all the running backs and tight ends on the board.

The NFL deserves some applause, orchestrating yet again another exciting day of draft coverage. Pause for a nice slow golf clap. Now throw in the young boy suffering with a terminal illness who came up and announced his favorite team's pick, the Saints, and we can up our applause to a full on clap. Thanks NFL for making April fun.

Now if only the Jets would make things fun and actually add some talent to our division three level offense. Thanks guys!

[Part One - NY Jets, Revis and the Draft]

[Part Two - NY Jets picks and Giants preview]

[Part Three - NY Giants analysis & Draft day predictions]

NFL Draft 2013: Part Three - NY Giants analysis & Draft day Predictions

NFL Draft 2013: Part Three - NY Giants analysis & Draft day Predictions
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (4-22-13)

[Part One - NY Jets preview, Revis trade & the Draft]
[Part Two - NY Jets picks & NY Giants preview]



TODD:
The biggest gaping hole for Big Blue is probably defensive back. The linebacking corp is weaker as a unit but linebackers are easier to find and plug in. However, good DB's are scarce and so integral to a team's success. The Giants lost Kenny Phillips this off-season; Corey Webster, their best corner, has been awful for going on two years and it may be that he simply lost a step, meaning he will continue to be terrible; youngsters Prince Amukamara and Jayron Hosley may not be ready to start and there is little depth behind that trio. Especially with the way the defensive front took a step back in their rushing skills last season, the defensive backfield is as important and as weak as ever.

A trade at this point seems unlikely, although I hear you guys have a solid corner you are dangling to the trade sharks. Wouldn't that be fun? The Jets giving up one of their franchise's best players ever to their big brothers. But Revis is a Buccaneer now and the Giants are right up against the cap and have little room to make a big splash.

Rebuilding is certainly not an option with this team, but it is also not necessary at all. We are not that far away. Last year was a step back but a small one. Some things went wrong, some players underachieved while others got hurt; and the rest of the division is definitely tough. But with a rebound from the passing game and the pass rush (two areas that played well below expectations in 2012 but are strengths of the team), the Giants could be the cream of the NFC East again.

One player to keep an eye on is slot receiver Rueben Randle. He is taking over third receiver responsibilities for the departed Domenik Hixon and should get a ton of playing time this season. Randle may also get a shot at returning punts or kicks (or both). His quickness and speed will be a key compliment to the precise catching/route running of Cruz and the power and athleticism of Hakeem Nicks. At the end of the year, Rueben Randle may be the biggest reason New York's passing game came back to form in 2013.


DAN:
The Giants better draft a speedy defensive end and a speedy defensive back or two, otherwise they will never catch RG3 of the Redskins or whomever the Eagles trot out at QB. You know that dude will be a runner with Chip Kelly at the helm. If the Giants were in any other city, then a trade with the Jets would be a possibility. But as long as they share a stadium, Revis will never be dealt to big blue. Fireman Ed already retired as the NY Jets super fan, but if Revis is a Giant the stadium may be empty week one out of protest. Now that he's a Buc we can lay that argument to bed.

So it seems you feel good about your Giants. If you personally aren't targeting anyone as a guy you hope they draft, then let's jump into the good stuff. Draft day predictions, and not the run of the mill, anyone can come up with selections of the other NFL teams on the board. That's like hitting the snooze button on this article. I'm talking BIG trades, major shockers and men sitting idly in the green room for hours being forced to answer the uncomfortable question of why they have yet to be drafted. For the uninformed, the green room is where the prospective top twenty talent sit and wait to be selected. This year in particular, every quarterback in that room will be on edge. Do they go early or fall back to the second round, forced to return to the green room yet again on day two?

Three Seesaw predictions for Draft Day 2013:

1. Three quarterbacks will be selected in the first round

Explanation - There are too many teams in desperate need of an upgrade at the game's most important position. I know the GM's are claiming they've gotten smarter, and this year's crop of quarterbacks is lacking, but owners want to sell tickets and the hope of a new franchise man under center does just that.

2. Tim Tebow gets dealt during the draft

Explanation - If the Jets have shown us anything, its that they will make the move that provides the splashiest headline. Dealing Tebow during the draft will be the ONLY headline on Friday morning, heading into day two, and the Jets will steal the nation's attention for off the field hijinks once again.

3. The Cleveland Browns botch their first round pick, number six overall

Explanation - None necessary. Its Cleveland.


TODD:
Your quarterback prediction is sound and impossible to argue with. Zero quarterbacks deserve first round selections, but that seems to never matter. The position is just too important for teams not to take flyers on guys and hope they turn into something. I would rather see a team take a better player with their first pick and stab at a mid-round QB like Seattle did last year. The chances of hitting another Russell Wilson though seem remote. Tyler Bray and Mike Glennon are two guys to keep an eye on. They both have tremendous size and tangibles, but struggled with more acute aspects of their game in college... kind of like the anti-Russell Wilson to be honest. They should deliver great value to a team in the middle rounds even if a Wilson-like onslaught of the league is unlikely in year one.

I won't even address your second prediction since, to me at least, the trading of a backup is not newsworthy.

It is funny you threw in your third prediction since I believe it will be entirely linked to your first. The Browns will botch their first round pick because they will take a quarterback who is undeserving of that slot, kind of like they did last year.

My predictions for the 2013 NFL Draft:

1. Linebackers will plummet

Explanation - Jarvis Jones, one of the best half dozen defensive players in the nation during the 2012 season, is tumbling down draft boards because of his injury concerns and terrible combine numbers. Alec Ogletree is falling for off-field and character concerns. Manti Te'o is dropping for both of these reasons. According to Scouts Inc.'s Big Board, the three backers are all ranked between 13th and 24th overall. I see Ogletree dropping to the very end of that span, Jones dropping out of it and Te'o falling out of the first day completely. Not only are linebackers routinely passed over in drafts, but these three specifically have too many questions attached to them.

2. As many tight ends will be taken in the first round as wide receivers

Explanation - The wide receiver crop this year is solid even if there is no top tier, Calvin Johnson type available. This is more a declaration of how important the tight end position is becoming in the NFL. Teams need athletic guys who can create mismatches. This year's draft has two guys, Tyler Eifert and Zach Ertz, who will most certainly be taken in the top 32 picks. I see only two wide receivers going in the same span.

3. Mel Kiper's hair will look tremendous

Explanation - It always does.

[Part Four - Day one Gone Wrong]

[Part One - NY Jets preview, Revis trade & the Draft]

[Part Two - NY Jets picks & NY Giants preview]

NFL Draft 2013: Part Two - NY Jets picks & Giants preview

NFL Draft 2013: Part Two - NY Jets picks & Giants preview
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (4-19-13)

[Part One - NY Jets preview & Darrelle Revis]



DAN:
I don't need your pretend empathy. The Giants have won too much for you to ever understand what its like for your favorite football team to have never won a championship in your lifetime. The Jets won Superbowl III and I'm excited for the day when that no longer matters so much. Here's to the future and getting some good value for Revis!

Let's assume the Jets make the trade I proposed, they deal Revis and a pick for three pics and a player. Its better than letting him walk and could lead to some heavy hitters in the draft. The Bucs have high pics this year, so there 2013 second round pick is a good one. I'd venture to say that their first round pick next season will be top fifteen, so both are looking good. Here's who I want with the 9th pick in 2013 and the Jets and Bucs second rounders in 2013. I know Rex Ryan loves defense and could use some speed in the linebacking core, but the offense was hugely underwhelming last season and should be the focus heading into the draft, with one BIG exception.

9th pick: Mel Kiper has Dee Milliner, CB from Alabama, going at number five. If he's still available when the Jets are on the board, I want them to pick him with the 9th pick. This is not inconceivable and would provide a cornerback for the future to try and replace the loss of Revis. Plus they have Cromartie to teach the kid the ropes. If Milliner is gone, then I want Lane Johnson, OT from Oklahoma. Kiper has him at eleven, but the Jets couldn't protect a fly let alone Sanchez last season. They need to bolster their offensive line and Johnson is their man.

2nd round pics: Lumping together the Jets own second round pick and the one from the Bucs, I go strong offense here. If Eddie Lacy, RB Alabama, drops to them in the early second round then the Jets should grab him faster than a kid on Christmas. Kiper has him at 26th in the first round, but we shall see. Then, with the Bucs pic I want to go quarterback. I think Landry Jones, QB from Oklahoma, is a great grab in the mid second round. His TD/INT ratio is solid, with a lot of yards to show for himself. Also, at 6'4" and 218 he can withstand the beating he's sure to get as quarterback of the Jets... We Jets fans are self deprecating okay? Geez.

I would love to tell you about next year's draft as well, but that's a little out there for me. What's your take on the situation and the Jets' draft needs? And more importantly, who are your Giants targeting? They underachieved last season too and have some holes to fill now.


TODD:
I would agree that Milliner would be a very nice selection at ninth overall, especially with the circular nature of him replacing the star they just shipped out of town. However, I also agree it is (not inconceivable but) unlikely he will be there. There are so many talented pass rushers available at the top of this draft. Although you know better than me whether the Jets would sorely regret passing on some offensive line help instead of improving at defensive end. If o-line is the choice, Eric Fisher, Lane Johnson or Jonathan Cooper seem like nice options. If the Jets can come away with either the best guard on the board or one of the top three tackles, they should be pleased.

As far as the second round goes, this is where I am no longer with you. I have seen too many teams make mistakes by grabbing a running back early. They are too volatile, too interchangeable and too dependent on the team around them. There are going to be backs drafted well after Eddie Lacy who have a better career than him, mark it down. And I understand the desire to grab a quarterback any chance you get. A team without a reliable QB might as well be taking the season off. But Landry Jones is not the answer. We may see half a dozen quarterbacks get taken in the second round, each with certain strengths and weaknesses. I feel like there are better upside plays than taking Jones and the Jets may even be better off helping the rest of their roster and waiting another season on finding that future behind center.

The Giants are certainly lucky in that respect. They do not have to worry about filling the quarterback position. What we do have to fill though, is almost everything else. Offensive line is thin, wide receiver is in dire straits if Victor Cruz does not return, defensive line lost a number of pieces, the linebacking shelf is as empty as ever and the defensive backfield could use some work. What else is left? Oh, we also might need a running back to split carries with David Wilson.

In recent years, the Giants have done very well for themselves drafting the best player available when their turn is up. I have confidence in the front office to continue this trend, especially with how many places are areas of need this off-season. The only thing I'll say is that I hope they finally draft a linebacker pretty early. Year after year the Giants choose to push linebacker to a secondary concern, as if it isn't an important spot. And while the position can be filled by players who are not elite athletes and a linebacker's success may hinge greatly on who is playing in front of him, it is still frustrating to see the Giants' list of starting linebackers week one of each new season. It never looks pretty.


DAN:
I'd be thrilled if the Jets went o-line in the first round, but if Rex Ryan has a say about it they probably go the pass rushing route and grab a speedy defensive end. Your Giants could learn a thing or two in that respect as they definitely need to bolster the defense. Assuming Victor Cruz re-signs, then Eli Manning to Cruz can win you some games, but the defense will loose a bunch if something isn't done. You noted a ton of holes for the Giants. What's the biggest gaping hole and can it be filled via the draft? Is it the linebackers, and if the draft class won't cut it, do the Giants look to trade in order to return to form this season.

The Giants, unlike the Jets, are in the interesting position of having taken a step back while in their franchise quarterback's prime. Rebuilding is not an option here, yet no QB can compensate for all a team's shortfalls. The Giants front office is outstanding and has never let the fans down in Eli's career, so am I missing something? Any sneaky backup players to watch this season? A free agent you wish they'd grab? I'm fairly confident the Giants compete for the top spot in the NFC East again this season, yet I'm at a loss for how they start the year as a better team then the Redskins or Cowboys.

[Part Three - NY Giants analysis & Draft day Predictions] 
[Part Four - Day one Gone Wrong]

[Part One - NY Jets preview & Darelle Revis]