Masahiro Tanaka and Fantasy Baseball 2014 - part two

Masahiro Tanaka and Fantasy Baseball 2014 - part two

by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (2-7-14)

[Part one - Mike freaking Trout]

[Starting next week Seesaw Sports will be moving to Buzzchomp - You'll find posts both here and there for a week or two as we transition our readers. Thanks!]



TODD:
There is certainly no arguing that Andrew McCutchen or Freddie Freeman feel like safer picks than elite starters from last year like Scherzer and Sanchez. That is always a given; batters are safer. However, the point of the theory was that if you were able to grab the top starting pitchers, you'd be okay if one or two missed because your lineup would still be in fine shape. The overall dominance of Mike Trout across all scoring categories would allow for "fill-in" batters later on.

It would be a less comfortable way of drafting. There is no doubt about that. I guess it would be hard to pull the trigger on the likes of Felix Hernandez and Cliff Lee and Stephen Strasburg when so many other players seem much safer and reliable in those early rounds.

Speaking of questionable pitchers, where are you taking Masahiro Tanaka this season in fantasy? He will not technically be the New York Yankees' ace, but he will be in spirit. Or they at least need him to be. So is he an ace fantasy pitcher? He doesn't appear to be the strikeout maven that Yu Darvish is. And the possibility exists that he will bomb completely in the major leagues. So where would you take him and at what point is he too rich for your blood and you know he won't be appearing on any of your fantasy teams?


DAN:
I'm all for drafting uncomfortably, but pinning down a draft strategy that requires you to practically dislike your first four or five picks because of uncertainty alone feels wrong. I forced myself last season to not draft any pitching early. The jury is out on whether it was a successful strategy or not, but it was really hard. Doing the opposite feels nearly impossible, but with a player like Mike freaking Trout, its not completely in left field. (Did you enjoy my corny baseball pun? Did asking you about it and pointing it out completely ruin the joke? Was it already ruined from the start?)

I love that you brought up Mr. Tanaka. The newest addition to the Yankees' starting rotation is a much safer pick in my opinion than Yu Darvish was. The main reason here, when Darvish came up the Rangers were good, but not a team that won in spite of its pitching. The Yankees have been a team, for the last few seasons, that wins games in spite of its pitching. Last year was a bit more balanced, but overall their lineup has compensated for off nights by the pitching staff. Hence the consistent high win totals. So even if he is an average pitcher, a la Ivan Nova, he will get victories and do well in several statistical categories.

For some perspective, in an auction league I paid $17 for Yu Darvish in his rookie season. I thought he would be damn good and was right on the money. I wasn't going to pay higher than $22 for him, he was unproven, but he definitely warranted a solid bid with all his upside. So where does that leave Masahiro Tanaka? He has the potential to be a great number two for the Yankees and an ace on many other teams. I don't see him surpassing CC Sabathia or even Pineda's ceiling with New York, but that only improves his fantasy value. If he's the number two or three pitcher, he'll be facing other team's two and three guys. That's great news for your fantasy wins total. I think I've finally gotten around to a real answer for your question.

In a snake draft (obligatory Booo from a big fan of auctions) I would take Tanaka anywhere in round seven and below. He is not a top five pick, but snatching him in the seventh round before anyone else does seems warranted. I love the consistency and upside of Japanese pitchers and its a risk well worth taking. In an auction draft (obligatory cheers) I'd pay up to $15 bucks for him, maybe a little higher. I don't love him like I did Yu Darvish, but he is a Yankee. The mid level pitchers go in the twenty dollar range, so reaching for a rookie at fifteen bucks seems solid to me. I'd be shocked if I had to pay that much, but he's a big name and they come at a price.


TODD:
Chasing wins in fantasy baseball is a flawed and dangerous tactic. There is little correlation between a team a pitcher plays for and his ability to grab a win. There is also an even lower connection between a pitcher being great and his ability to be elite in the wins category. There is just too much out of his control.

The stat that is easily predictable is strikeouts. And with Tanaka, his strikeout potential seems to be considerably lower than Darvish. With that said, I believe your estimate is still low!

Being a big-time news story, playing for the Yankees and all the rest, Tanaka is incredibly hyped up. Although he is coming over as a worse prospect than Darvish was according to scouts, he may be a bigger deal. I can see him going earlier in snake drafts than you mentioned and for more dough in auctions. Of course, I'm with you. I'll stay away from Tanaka in all leagues unless he becomes a bargain...which won't happen. I would much rather get my hands on a known commodity at that price and take a chance on someone cheaper later in the draft.

[If you missed Part one - Mike freaking Trout]

MLB Opening Day Mash up now w/ Fantasy! - Part Two

MLB Opening Day Mash up now w/ Fantasy! - Part Two
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (4-5-13)

[Part One of the MLB Mash up]

TODD:

I'm not on board with your Red Sox and Mets hate. Obviously I don't want either team to succeed, but I am not sure they will both be terrible. The Red Sox have loads of talent still. Their lineup is actually looking better than what the Yankees are going to be forced to trot out. And the Mets have some great, young pitching. They may very well finish third in that division although that is more of a shot at the Phillies and Marlins than confidence in the Metropolitans.

In regards to money buying wins, I think everyone agrees that is not the case. The past success of the Twins and Athletics as well as the current run of the Rays proved that. However, money helps. It is easier to overcome roster mistakes. That is a given. Although if a money-laden team tries to reverse course and be thrifty, it makes it even harder to succeed since they already paid for so many terrible contracts before that decision was made!!...not thinking of any team in particular, just a general idea for the landscape of the sport; that's all.

Speaking of spending money, we recently had our fantasy baseball auction draft and a funny thing occurred. People are always nervous to spend too much right away in these things; I get that. However, what has happened more and more each subsequent season is that people have way too much money left over in later rounds. Solid players start to get bid up because owners were targeting them as cheaper options to a star player. Late round values don't become values at all as the money floods the market. The same thing happens in real life sports with a salary cap. NBA or NFL teams seem to offer more money for lesser players if they have the cap room. As odd as it sounds, has baseball, with its unlimited salaries and ultimate capitalism, become the smartest with its money?

Sure everyone hates Marlins' owner Jeffrey Loria because he dismantled his entire team. But doesn't that seem smarter than overpaying for players who won't make a big enough difference?

DAN:

Hate is a strong word. Neither the Red Sox or Mets will be playoff contenders this season, but I'm not saying they'll bottom out or anything. Its just exciting to see who can be worse! The Mets are taking a head start with the growing length of their Disabled List to start the year. And yes I know, the Yankees list of disabled players (how funny does that read) is much longer, but we aren't talking about the 27 time world champions right now.

I think you may be on to something big hear, baseball has become much smarter with its money out of necessity. Since anyone can spend whatever they want on any player, over time everyone is either going to get smart or get burned. Now the biggest spenders of the last decade, the Yankees and Red Sox, both got burned and had some smart signings. But overall, the big money deals have burned both teams. The league overall, leaving out the Dodgers and Angels, have definitely learned from history. My feeling is that the Angels have been more or less smart with the money, but the Dodgers are acting like its 2003 and the A-rod deal hasn't happened yet. As a resident of Los Angeles, I hope they get lucky.

I want to touch on the Marlins for a moment before commenting on the wacky hijinks that ensued during our Fantasy Baseball draft. Your idea that selling off all the high priced talent is smart if those players can't make a big enough difference misses one huge asterisk of a point. You can't cross the line. Its smart to trade or release players who are under performing their contracts. But in doing so, you need to then sign new guys to be competitive and get better. I haven't taken a look at the Marlins farm system of late, but chances are this team will suck in 2013. If you're a Marlins fan, opening day has arrived and you can already start looking toward 2014. That is just awful. The Marlins re-branded themselves last year and now trot out this mess. Come on man!

Now the good stuff, fantasy baseball. I actually found that people were overpaying for just about everyone from the very beginning. Then, when something juicy was happening in an NCAA basketball game, you could sneak in and win a guy at auction for his actual retail price. Otherwise, it was bid up, bid up. I loved and hated this. Personally, bidding up players that I don't want is the most fun thing in the world. I must have done this at least six times and never once did I win the guy. It was awesome! But overall, the prices for drafted players were up there and no one will be keeper material because of it. Did you see the prices for catchers? Its a freaking catcher! How can you pay over five bucks at auction for Jesus Montero of the Mariners? He's a two dollar player at best. And then the relief pitchers, well, what the hell was that about? Every year the entire crop of successful relievers from the season before is cut in half and one side sucks while the other manages to be average. Then there is a whole group of unknown guys who manage to be awesome. Why the spending spree? Insanity and it was great!

TODD:

I'm with you on the catcher front. I was perfectly happy waiting and waiting...and waiting for my starting catcher. I ended up nabbing Jonathan Lucroy for a few pennies. Okay, actually it was $4 because someone who already had a catcher bid him up to screw me.

But the relievers was an interesting development. I partook in this insanity of which I normally avoid. Never Pay For Saves: it is the epitome of fantasy baseball advice. Saves come into the league during the season at a higher rate than any other stat. So many closers get hurt/lose their job that paying for an elite closer is almost heresy. And yet I paid for saves...kind of.

When I became aware of the growing trend of the league (i.e. people were saving their money too much and the values later in the draft were going to be expensiveeeee), I realized I too would have too much money left over. If I knew this ahead of time, I would have bid more on the good players. Instead of bidding up replacement-level bats though, I decided to go ahead and pay for five starting closers who were below the elite level but have the job locked down for opening day. Our league allows for three RP slots and two P slots. To me, that means I can start five closers each and every day, so I paid for them. Will two, maybe three of these gentlemen lose their job before the end of June? Perhaps. Will I regret my decision? Almost certainly. Was there a better alternative after I got caught in the midst of the money save? Not that I can see. Should I stop asking myself questions and allow you to ask a few? I suppose.

DAN:

I did my best to spend early on the available big bats while grabbing some pitching along the way. I held off on the relievers because they are nearly impossible to predict. I think May is a good time to snatch up or trade for relievers. Too bad we can't put a hold on their stats until Memorial Day. I'm now going to take this opportunity to "Raise the Roof" for my boy Yu Darvish. I used a keeper on him for a measly $17 and he rewarded me by starting the season with a near Perfect Game, twenty six outs on fourteen strikeouts. No complete game, but I'm not greedy. Go Yu!

The trends really surprised me in our fantasy baseball draft for two reasons. The first is that offseason ratings for baseball players, especially pitchers, is notoriously a poor indication of the upcoming season's success. Last year's stats carry over for mainly the top 15% of guys, the cream of the crop, and a quarter of those are keepers (all numbers approximate). So why spend money on risky business? I guess that's why auctions are so much fun! Bidding up the copper while you snatch some gold for the same price is oh so much fun. Here's hoping you do regret your decision and someone else, ahem, me, finally dethrones you as champion and wins the league.

One final thought on the actual games being played by real life people, how many MLB players do you think are playing fantasy baseball? I know quite a few football players play fantasy football, but this is much easier to accomplish. Fantasy baseball is a completely different game on a whole new level and playing fantasy while competing would be maddening. You definitely can't have yourself on your team. Unlike football, each at bat is so mental and each pitch a grudge match already that adding on the pressure of stat padding for fantasy purposes would crush even the best players. Maybe that's what happened to Tim Lincecum. And could you even have teammates on your fantasy team? You want to win your team's game, but if Player X works a walk instead of getting a hit do you applaud him getting on base or be pissed for lowering your fantasy team's overall statistics? I don't see this ending well.

TODD:

I think zero MLB baseball players play fantasy baseball. That number again, just to be clear, was zero.

I bet a ton of guys play fantasy football though. As you brought up, it seems counterproductive for players to participate in fantasy games involving their own sport. It might also be against league policy. I am not sure where you heard that football players are playing fantasy football, but I find that really hard to believe, no matter the ease of the game. Especially if it is for money, how is that different than gambling on your sport? Pete Rose got banned from baseball for life for essentially owning himself on all his fantasy teams. He never bet against the Reds. But he still bet.

Fantasy sports is more of an outsiders' activity. If athletes play, they play it in sports other than their own, where they would be outsiders.  Now let the games begin!

[Part One of our MLB Mash up]