MLB April stats mean NOTHING - Part two

MLB April stats mean NOTHING - Part two
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (5-10-13)

[Part one - MLB one month Over Reaction]



DAN:
As to the crazy yet real stats you through out there, I'm going to tell you if any of them will still be true at the All Star break and season's end. This should be fun!

- The Oakland A's and the Colorado Rockies scored the most runs in the AL and NL respectively
This is an obvious NO for both teams.

- Pittsburgh was in first place in the NL Central
I like them as a wildcard team, but not as division champs.

-Toronto was in last place in the AL East
I'm really surprised they aren't at least a .500 ball club, but last place seems right to me.

- The Rockies had the most April wins in the entire National League
Did you make this one up? I can't see this lasting even to Memorial Day.

- John Buck was on pace for 54 home runs and 150 RBI
I almost went to add him to my fantasy team, but then I realized it was John Buck.

- The following players had an OPS over 1.000: Dexter Fowler, Carlos Gomez, Wilin Rosario
This just means they aren't playing much, right? I should probably drop Rosario now from my fantasy roster..... Yeah no way, he's a stud.

- Jake Westbrook leads all starters in ERA with a mark of 0.98
Who? Is he available?

- Clay Bucholz and Jon Lester combined to go 9-0 after going 20-22 last year
No wonder the Red Sox are in first place. Not going to continue.

- Jason Grilli, the Pirates' closer, leads the league in saves and is a perfect 10 for 10 in chances
Who? Is he available? I now want him badly on my team.


TODD:
It seems counterproductive for you to react to ANY of the stats I listed for the month of April. Didn't I explain pretty clearly how things that happen in April are pointless? Hah. None of those things will continue; some have already begun to swing around in just a week and a half of May!

The dirty, little secret about baseball statistics though is that you can pick a sample size of thirty days from pretty much any point in the season and create a list that long or longer about idiotic things that make no sense. It is the problem with a small sample size. There is not enough time for a true outcome to be unearthed. Too much is based on luck in that short a time frame. The reason April stands out as "the pointless month" is because stats are easier to read starting from zero. That is really the only reason. It is harder to find someone's terrible July compared to the rest of the league because you have to sift through their stats prior to the beginning of July, or even make a point of keeping track before the trend even develops. April is way easier.

With that said, I love statistics. You can twist them and contort them to make any point your heart desires. Sports writers are really just cutting through all the numbers out there and cherry-picking ones that prove what they want to say. If someone is down on the Angels, they may bring up how many games back they are or how many games below .500 they are or how they only have an 9.1% chance of making the playoffs (according to ESPN's playoff odds).

But someone could just as easily bring up how they've only played one home series so far against a team who didn't make the playoffs last year, which was April 12-14 against Houston, and they won 2 out of 3 there. They are currently playing without their ace pitcher, without their closer and without their starting center fielder who was batting .313 when he went down and had one of the better Aprils of anyone on the roster. Also...hmm, well everything else with this team is bad. Josh Hamilton is so bad he's been below replacement-level for over thirty games now. So okay, statistics can't be manipulated to prove ANYTHING but the fact remains.

Let's tweak the question though. From this day forward, Anaheim wins more games than the Dodgers.


DAN:
Tweaking the question just makes it so your answer can be right, while the REAL question is what the fans really care about. Playoffs baby, playoffs. The Dodgers are in. The Angels are out.

As for stats, I enjoy the numbers behind the game of baseball, but could ultimately care less about my team's percent chance of making the playoffs at this point in the season. I don't care about their ERA or their OBP either. There are only two stats that matter to me as a baseball fan. Team wins and team batting average with runners in scoring position (RISP). Two stats, no more, no less.

I love following my team's wins because you can get a real feel for the energy and swagger of your ball club. Especially looking back at April, is your team clicking, starting to gel as a group, or are they much maligned like the aforementioned Dodgers and Angels. Even if your team is teetering at .500 you can be happy about a three or four game win streak. It shows the team has a chance to make a splash this season. Of course, the opposite is even more true. Any sort of long losing streak at this point in the year is rather damning. Lose two or three and you're like everyone else. But ratchet up a few six or seven game losing streaks and its a hole that only one or two teams in history have climbed out of by September.

April wins and loses have minimal importance as long as you aren't nine games back like the Angels. They can definitely recover, but they'll never be a great team this season. That we know for a fact after one month. As for the rest of the league, five games up or down in your division is neither a mountain or a mole hill. Its just a month sample size like you mentioned. Let's talk again on July 1st.

My other favorite stat is team batting average with RISP. As Yankees fans our team usually hits a lot of home runs, but I can always tell if our team is up for a deep postseason run based on that stat. Take last season for example, the Yankees stunk with RISP. They couldn't hit anyone home unless it was with a long ball. In the postseason, when power numbers drop and small ball gains importance, I knew this stat would haunt them. The team did not get the simple hits when it mattered, with runners on base, and you can't win a championship like that. Rarely can a team power hit their way past a lousy average with RISP. I'm keeping a close eye on this stat as we approach June. Things do look up this season for the Yankees, who added a lot of productive players to the lineup, guys who get the hit and get the man home to score. This season is nothing like last season and I'm loving it!

[Part one - Click here - MLB one month Over Reaction]

MLB one month Over Reaction - Part one

MLB one month Over Reaction - Part one
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (5-6-13)



DAN:
The first month of the baseball season is notoriously poor at being an indicator for the rest of the season, but May on the other hand is not. I think you know where this is headed... April flubs and shaky studs!

We've had some surprise success and failure this past month, but in my opinion none has been more surprising than the Dodgers and Angels who find themselves five and half and nine games out of the division lead respectively. On paper they are chock full of studs, but neither has really started clicking yet. They had some injuries, sure, but so have our Yankees and they are looking mighty fine. My spider sense tells me that only one of the two will be a contender after a month of futility. Who do you got?

Give me your flubs and shaky studs for April and perchance reflect on the the ramifications or utter uselessness of trying to look at April as a barometer for the MLB season.


TODD:
April is notoriously pointless. There is no way around this. From the beginning of the season, I thought the Dodgers were being overvalued. They have a ton of holes. The Angels, on the other hand, I was pretty sure would be good. With just that simple judgement and knowing April is pointless, I would have to go with the Angels being the LA playoff team if I was picking one.

If people need proof of April being utterly irrelevant, here are the following stats, which are completely true; everything listed below was 100% accurate as of the final day of the month of April.

- The Oakland A's and the Colorado Rockies scored the most runs in the AL and NL respectively.

- Pittsburgh was in first place in the NL Central even though their run differential is way worse than both St. Louis and Cincinnati.

- Toronto was in last place in the AL East and the aforementioned Angels can claim only one more win than Houston.

- The Rockies had the most April wins in the entire National League. Let that one sink in for a minute.


If league standings and team results being bogus isn't enough for you, I have April player stats as well!

- John Buck was on pace for 54 home runs and 150 RBI. Seriously, John Buck.

- The following players had an OPS over 1.000: Dexter Fowler, Carlos Gomez, Wilin Rosario.

- Jake Westbrook leads all starters in ERA with a mark of 0.98.

- Clay Bucholz and Jon Lester combined to go 9-0 after going 20-22 last year.

- Jason Grilli, the Pirates' closer, leads the league in saves and is a perfect 10 for 10 in chances.


Oh, you say those statistics are too basic and are prone to dramatic ups and downs? Well, let's use some WAR (wins above replacement) numbers then. Now WAR is not perfect, we all know, but as an overarching stat, it is pretty damn good. Here are some April WAR numbers to take with a huge, gigantic grain of salt:

- Matt Wieters has a lower WAR than the following catchers: Yan Gomes, Michael McKenry, Welington Castillo and yes, I have never heard of at least two of those three men.

- Adam LaRoche, Paul Konerko and Allen Craig have been so bad (accumulating negative WAR scores), their teams would have technically been better off if they hadn't even played. Same goes for Adrian Beltre and Asdrubal Cabrera.

- Of qualifying players, Rickie Weeks and Maicer Izturis were the two worst second basemen in all of baseball in the month of April.

- David Freese ranked 52 out of 56 qualifying third basemen in WAR. Josh Donaldson ranked 5th.

- Kevin Correia is tied for the 7th best pitcher in baseball with a WAR of 1.5.

- Matt Cain is tied for the 7th worst mark with a WAR of -0.8.


So here we are, finally in the month of May. What is real and what is not from April baseball? Well, to summarize, everything from April is a joke and nothing is real. Whoever is in first place on April 30 probably won't be on August 30. Be patient; this is baseball after all.


DAN:
A week ago I would have agreed with you, putting the Angels in the playoffs over the Dodgers. Now, with one full month in the books, I'm taking the Dodgers. Two reasons for my support of the boys in blue and not our friends down in Anaheim. First, the Dodgers are five and half games back which is very doable at this point in the year. They've played poorly, but should get a big lift when their pitching arms return to the rotation. Also, this is the first full season that their batting lineup has played together, so some growing pains can be expected. I like their chances against the other NL West teams who are not scaring anyone.

The Angels on the other hand are nine games back. This makes it highly unlikely they will win the division, but does not put the wildcard out of the question. Yet Albert Pujols is going on the DL probably sooner than later. He's injured and can only gut through it for so long. Add to that the loss of their pitching ace and you have a team in a deep, deep hole.

The second reason I'm on board with the Dodgers is the competition they'll face. Like I said, no one in the NL West scares me and I give the Dodgers a real shot to capture the division crown. The Giants may hold on tight, but the Dodgers can capitalize on wins against the remaining division foes to secure a wildcard berth. The Angels, unfortunately, have their work cut of for them. Texas will win the division and the A's are no pushovers either. They played the Yankees really hard over the weekend and proved you can't overlook them. So the Angels need a wildcard spot, and they won't get one. The AL is too good once again.

Now to the crazy, yet real, stats you through out there. I'm going to tell you if any of them will still be true at the All Star break.

[Part two - MLB April stats mean NOTHING]

All out AL East 2013 Baseball Preview - Part Two

All out AL East 2013 Baseball Preview - Part Two
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (3-15-13)

[Part One - Fantasy picks & AL East]

DAN:

Umm, wow, where do I begin? You're right about one thing, one run games are a sure fire way to an inflated or deflated record in baseball. However, you are DEAD wrong on the Orioles. They didn't just win one run games last year, they won games period. But assessing the Orioles record in 2013 is not merely about assessing them as a team, but assessing the other competition in the AL East. The Orioles have a well balanced lineup, Matt Wieters anyone, manipulated by a tremendous manager in Buck Showalter. Their pitching staff was decimated by injury last season and still managed to be great. They'll have both Zach Britton and Jason Hammel back at full strength. Don't tell me they aren't still a force.

But as to the real reason they finish second this season, the rest of the division just isn't any better save for the Rays. The Rays are a better version of the Orioles. Otherwise, the Blue Jays will do okay but are attempting to play the Yankees' game. The Yankees, all be it older, will play it better. And the Red Sox, come on. How can they finish ahead of the Orioles? They barely fielded a team last year, and last I checked, have done next to nothing to improve over the winter.

You conveniently left out your division standings. Afraid to put it on paper?  Man up.

TODD:

Actually, I hate to pull the "facts" card out on you like this, but the Orioles whole playoff berth was on the back of winning one-run games and pretty much nothing else. They went 29-9 in one-run games. That is the best mark in baseball history since the turn of the century; the century in question being 1900!!

If they were simply above average in one-run games, say a .600 winning percentage, pretty damn solid, they would have finished with seven fewer wins and missed the playoffs by a healthy margin. Their entire fluky season was built on fluky wins and a fluky bullpen.

It is true they have some young pitching but no one in their rotation is anything more than a third starter. Who is Baltimore's ace, Wei-Yin Chen?? As for their lineup, they have a few good hitters, some young talents and a nice mix of power and speed...which probably means they have the fourth best lineup in the division. Come on, this is the AL East we're talking about!

You actually think they're better than the Red Sox? Boston still has Ellsbury and Pedroia and Ortiz. They added Victorino, Stephen Drew, and lots of power in Mike Napoli and Jonny Gomes. As long as the starting rotation isn't below replacement level, this team will finish multiple games ahead of Baltimore.

Speaking of, I'm not one to back away from a prediction that no one will remember anyway unless I remind them of it because I nailed it on the head. So here is how the AL East will shape up this season:

(1) Tampa Bay
(2) New York
(3) Toronto
(4) Boston
(5) Baltimore

DAN:

I love LOVE your faith in the Yankees to finish in the two spot and I obviously agree about Tampa Bay, but I never ever pick against the eye test. Baltimore passed the eye test last season with flying colors. Throw your history making stats out the window for a moment and watch them play. Now go watch Boston. No contest. Boston may have improved, and on paper they sound like a pretty formidable opponent, but the eye test doesn't lie. Baltimore is better and a lot better than you think.

You make my Baltimore pick seem like a shot in the dark, akin to picking the Mets to make the playoffs or something equally as absurd. Any truly surprising teams this season? Who will be this season's Orioles and who will be this season's Pirates? Both had monster first halves in 2012, but only the Orioles were able to hang on for the full 162.

The Pirates for 2013 will be the Cleveland Indians, strong from April until July, but ultimately on the outside looking in come September. They added some nice hitters to the lineup, but the team is just average. Our season's Orioles will be the Milwaukee Brewers. I know they were good a few seasons ago, but the team is very different now and will once again make a run into the wildcard.

TODD:

The Indians is a very nice choice for this year's Pirates. They have a lot of talent on offense and some upside pitchers. This team is probably more talented overall than the Pirates were a season ago. But playing in the American League should certainly help see a second half decline here. I like that pick or their divisional foe, the Kansas City Royals. KC has even more talent than Cleveland does. It is certainly within the realm of possibility that their young hitters get off to a hot start and their veteran pitching staff does the rest. Of course there is little upside to a rotation of Ervin Santana, Jeremy Guthrie, Bruce Chen and Wade Davis, even with James Shields as the default ace; hence the second half collapse.

I can't get on board with your Brewers pick though. Not because they have no shot at contending for a wildcard; but because this team is too good to qualify as the 2013-version Orioles. Forget about Ryan Braun (AKA the number one fantasy player in baseball), Aramis Ramirez or the bats. Just look at that pitching staff. Yovani Gallardo is an All-Star candidate. Plus, Mike Fiers and Marco Estrada are solid starters. Baltimore won on the backs of a bullpen, a wing, and a prayer. Milwaukee deserves better.  The real Orioles run of this season will be made by the San Diego Padres.

All of the Padres' pieces fit:
- They have an underrated lineup; Chase Headley had a breakout season last year; young bats like Yonder Alonso and Cameron Maybin are ready to make a leap; and they have lots of speed to create trouble for opponents.

- They have an awful starting rotation; their "ace" is Edinson Volquez. According to baseball-reference's WAR stat, he's had only one season in his career worth more than one win and that was back in 2008 as a member of the Reds. So, other than 2008, there hasn't been a single season where he was more than one win better than a scrap heap, replacement schlub. In other news, he walked 105 batters last season.

- They have what should be a fantastic bullpen; Huston Street is a stud closer. Alongside him, Luke Gregerson is one of the best setup men in baseball. With Joe Thatcher and Dale Thayer, San Diego's late-inning army should be hard to score upon.

Also throw in the fact that San Diego will probably be predicted to finish last or fourth in the NL West this year and the parallels are perfect. Watch out National League; your day of reckoning is upon us!

Go Yankees!

[Part One - Top Fantasy picks & the AL East]

Fantasy Baseball and AL East 2013 Preview - Part One

Fantasy Baseball and AL East 2013 Preview - Part One
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (3-11-13)

DAN:

Pitchers and Catchers have reported. I know for you east coasters this is probably the first real sign of spring. Yay for you! Here on the left coast it means we can start talking fantasy baseball and season expectations. As a transplant to Los Angeles I take every opportunity too see our Yankees play out west. This season they visit both the Dodgers and the Angels. Kick ass! But now for something tangible. A la the Coors Light Cold Hard Facts, I propose two cold hard truth based questions.

First, who goes number one in the Fantasy Baseball draft? Or, for people who like to have more fun and play in an auction league like us, who goes for the highest price?

Second, kick off our 2013 AL East preview and tell me who finishes with a better record, the Red Sox or the Yankees?

TODD:

Your first question is an interesting one. It almost comes down to the owner's personality. Do they want to go safe and reliable or take the riskier player? There are really only three options and anyone who throws in a different player is mentally unstable. The only three options for the top price in a fantasy draft are Miguel Cabrera, Ryan Braun or Mike Trout.

Miguel Cabrera is the safest play. All his hitting numbers will be massive; you know what you are getting.

Ryan Braun is probably the most likely to go first here because of the speed advantage he has over Cabrera. Where Cabrera will steal almost no bases, Braun has double digit steals every year, which is not something to be overlooked. All his hitting numbers will most likely fall just below Miggy everywhere else but not by much and not guaranteed. Braun is good enough to finish tops in the league in pretty much anything other than steals.

Which is where Mike Trout comes in. Trout may very well finish number one in steals. The other numbers are where the questions lie. Will he repeat that batting average and (more unlikely) all that power? If you're a believer in those categories, there is no way Trout would go anywhere but first. But, as fantasy is all about likelihood and minimizing risk, Trout is probably not going to be on the level of Cabrera or Braun in the power numbers or the average.

Does that help to not answer your question even remotely?

I suppose if it were me, I would take Ryan Braun first. Give me the safer bat with the added speed dimension even though the pick doesn't seem as fun as taking either of the other guys. Plus, who wants to root for Braun after all this PED business? ...Gah, picking first would be hard. I might rather have the third pick in a snake draft and let someone else decide.

The Yankees versus Red Sox is not an easy question either. Looking at it from a wider scope though, give me your predicted AL East finish, first through fifth. All five teams have talent and potential. I would really not be surprised by any order you give...with one exception. I know who is finishing last.

DAN:

What a total cop out on both questions, but at least you selected your top pick. I was on edge for a moment before I saw you included Mike Trout in your top three and I understand why you take Braun first. But come on, Mike freaking Trout will be featured in a line up including Josh freaking Hamilton and Albert freaking Pujols. Power numbers will pail in comparison to RBI, On base %, Runs Scored and Steals. He is hands down the number one selection and highest priced draft choice.

Oh hmm, I wonder who nabbed Mr. Trout in our keeper league last year in a trade for the ages. That's right, I got him at a $30 steal for as long as I damn well please. He's the top pick.

On to the real thing, actual players participating to account for wins and loses. You may know who is finishing last in the American League East, but here's how the entire division stacks up top to bottom, one through five, playoffs through beer and fried chicken. I'll even throw in the number of games back to paint a clearer picture.

1. Tampa Bay Rays

2. Baltimore Orioles (2 GB)

3. New York Yankees (4 GB)

4. Toronto Blue Jays (5 GB)

5. Boston Red Sox (10 GB)

I'm not buying the Blue Jays. Every year they do their darnedest to make a splash over the winter in free agency. This year they did quite well on paper, but games are played April through September. Time will prove me right. I envision the Yankees in the Wildcard play-in game, ultimately making the playoffs that way. The Red Sox finally have a real rebuilding year and the Rays and Orioles continue to prove youth means more than the size of your paycheck.

TODD:

I'm glad you took the time to write out your full AL East division standings with the amount of games back each team will finish. This makes it much easier for me to pinpoint how and why you're an idiot!

Really, this whole division comes down to one team: the Baltimore Orioles. Last year, they caught everyone off guard and had a miraculous season. Do you know where the term "miraculous" comes from? It's from the root world "miracle" meaning an act of a freaking higher power was needed for that to even come to fruition. The Orioles were the biggest bunch of fluking flukers who ever fluked in 2012.

Their whole season was built on winning one-run games, a statistic so fluky in and of itself that teams' records in one-run games year to year have absolutely no bearing on the team's success in subsequent seasons. They also hinged all their pitching on their bullpen arms since their starters were not even that good a year ago. Guess what we know about bullpen arms, especially middle relief pitchers? They are the flukiest position in sports, right ahead of field goal kickers in football. There is almost no correlation between a middle reliever's prior season and his current season's success rate. Remember when Luke Gregerson and Matt Thornton were the best arms in the game? Of course you don't because it only lasted one season! Hey Pedro Strop? Get ready to join this group.

There is LITTRALLY (said in the Rob Lowe as Chris Traeger voice) no way the Baltimore Orioles do not finish in last place this season, no way. Their lineup is average; their starting pitching is worse than that and their bullpen is coming back to earth faster than that meteor that hit Russia. What other facets of the game are there? Where is this team good?

[Todd's rankings, predictions and more on Friday]