Friday, July 12, 2013

MLB at the Break: 2nd half thoughts & The Derby - Part two


MLB at the Break: 2nd half thoughts & The Derby - Part two
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (7-12-13)

[Part one - Let's knock some Dingers!]



DAN:
True, true, the Home Run Derby has the stars. It would definitely stink without them, but you missed on your analogy. The Home Run Derby isn't repetitive, its completely different than the NBA dunk contest! The goal of the HR derby is to hit as many home runs as possible. That goal gets amazing and awesome when a guy is hitting dinger after dinger, fifteen, sixteen or more out of the park. It works in reverse too, as everyone wants the player to get at least one homer. That's a great show!

To compare it to the NBA dunk contest we have to change the rules. What if the HR Derby's objective was to hit the longest long ball? Each HR gets measured and the player has ten chances for the longest dinger. That's boring and that's what the dunk contest has become. Do your wildest and craziest dunk and then get a score for it. You have three shots, or whatever. This worked with the stars involved only because it was the stars, not because the idea itself is a good one. The NBA Dunk contest should copy what works for the MLB Home Run Derby. Give a player sixty seconds and let him dunk away. How many dunks will he get? Does he clang a few off the rim and will that cost him the crown? I love this new idea! I'd like to replace David Stern now, thank you.

Let's move on. How about that second half of the season coming up? You know, the half that matters. When we find out if a team is actually good or not. I'm liking the Dodgers chances right now of fulfilling my prophecy from May 1st and making the playoffs.


TODD:
All that gibberish about multiple dunks and long home runs sounded just awful. But it did remind me of something actually interesting! Remember how in those "MLB The Show" video games they had a mini-game where there were locations on the field or items on the field that batters had to hit? It was like a non-home run derby, batting accuracy I suppose. Anyways, it was great fun and I would be totally in if they ever televised a real one, just to see who had the best bat control. I know this doesn't help the dunk contest but, come on, the most dunks in 60 seconds? Really?

Real quick, before we move on to the second half of the MLB season, David Wright and Robinson Cano picked their derby teammates. Wright went with Carlos Gonzalez (leads the NL in dingers) who was replaced by Pedro Alvarez because of injury, Bryce Harper (currently ranks second in the NL in awesomeness after Yasiel Puig) and Michael Cuddyer (apparently a hometown/childhood buddy of Wright's so we get it, tossing his friend a bone). Cano chose Prince Fielder (past derby king), Chris Davis (ML leader in home runs) and ... that's it. Supposedly he's asked Miguel Cabrera as well, but Miggy is waiting to see if his back is going to be healthy enough. If it isn't, who knows who Cano will take with him?

Update: The AL's final derby spot has been taken by Cuban phenom Yoenis Cespedes, who, I suppose, is literally the next best thing to getting Yasiel Puig in this thing.

I think the AL wins in a landslide but, individually, I kind of like Harper. I could see him going Josh Hamilton circa 2008 on this bitch (Of course, astute readers will recall that Hamilton actually lost that year's derby to Justin Morneau, but whatevs). With that being said, if we were to rank the contestants in likelihood of victory, the AL has to have something like three of the top four favorites.

Now, onto the real baseball coming up. The AL East looks like it is rounding into shape. Unfortunately for us, that shape has the Yankees in fourth place. Unless Jeter and A-Rod return with a vengeance, this team is not making the playoffs. They simply cannot score runs. I personally wouldn't mind if they dealt away one of their starting pitchers for a young bat, but that isn't exactly a Yankee thing to do. It wouldn't be quitting on the season either necessarily, since they have seven legit starting pitchers in line for the second half. But still, the Yankees are not ones to trade for prospects or deal away a strength.

The other AL team we are keeping our eyes on, the Angels, sit just 1.5 games behind the Dodgers! This impressive run LA has gone on has been matched nearly game for game by...LA. Now sure, the Angels are actually 9 games behind in the AL West, and stand little chance of making the playoffs. But you should not benefit by the suckiness of the NL West. Just because San Francisco has fallen off a cliff, Colorado came back to what we expected and San Diego stinks, does not mean you should get credit if the Dodgers make the playoffs. This is why I wanted it to be a strict record comparison: who finishes with a better record. Who cares about the standings? That's all arbitrary, like a win for a starting pitcher. Too much is out of their hands as far as a win goes. It's all about the xFIP baby! Get rid of those factors out of your control and hold a real apples to apples comparison. Or are you scared the Angels are going to pass your Dodgers? In other news, Matt Kemp is on the DL AGAIN.


DAN:
Apples to Apples is all well and good, if not a tiresome board game after thirty minutes. But I'm sorry, you can have your Angels sitting at seven games over .500 and out of the playoffs come season's end. I'll take the Dodgers at a mere three games over .500, in first place in the NL West and heading to the post season. Hmm. I wonder which will be considered a successful season? The team that sits at home in October, or the one that won its division and is playing for a championship. The Dodgers are only 1.5 games out of first, by the way.

Also, let me throw your argument further back in your face. Yes, the NL West is a significantly weaker division than the AL West. That is non debatable. But comparing the two divisions is hypocritical and is apples to oranges. The Dodgers don't get to choose their competition, they only have the simple goal of being better than them. Same with the Angels. Prediction, the Dodgers and Angels finish with identical records. The Angels sit at home and the Dodgers head to the playoffs as division champs. That way I win without your asterisk.

More importantly, Derek Jeter returned to action yesterday with a solid performance at DH. So check off number one on your list please, assuming his MRI is negative. The Yankees' offense can be offensive, but its also quite powerful. Overall its been streaky, but with dominant starting pitching only improving down the stretch, I'm confident in our guys winning enough one and two run games to pull out a playoff spot. They may have to win the wild card game (thank you new system), but I'm fine with that.

In October what wins year after year? Its pitching. Hitting goes cold and pitching wins. Our hitting is already cold, so it can only heat up.  And last I checked the Yankees have a solid rotation and a stacked bullpen. I like our chances!





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