MLB season recap: Gloating & Awards - Part one

MLB season recap: Gloating & Awards - Part one
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (9-30-13)



DAN:
So the MLB season is in the books and its been a fun and wild ride. I feel its appropriate to dredge up the past a bit and remind you of our World Series predictions we made way back during the first week of January. This will be fun, mostly for me!

You predicted, and I quote: "The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim will be back in the series on the backs of their loaded lineup and sterling pitching to face the Cincinnati Reds."

The Reds are in the playoffs, but how do you feel about your picks? You had the Angels winning in six games. I'm sorry, well no I'm not, but that pick looks really really bad in hindsight. You also stuck by the Angles in May and picked them to make the playoffs instead of the Dodgers, when both teams were stinking it up.

Now for my own prediction. "I'd say the Braves face the Rays in the World Series. The team with the healthiest pitching wins... Atlanta."

Well, well, both teams are in the playoffs (as of today the Rays are in the playoff play-in game so close enough for now). Win for me! I also nailed the Dodgers bouncing back and the Indians being this season's Pirates. We were both way off on the Red Sox, but who cares. Enough of my gloating, let's lay down some season awards.

If I could take a team's record out of the equation, then I would give the AL MVP to Mike Trout, but I can't. Miguel Cabrera wins it, with Detroit winning their division yet again. As for the AL Cy Young award... its goes to Max Scherzer because someone has to win it.

The National League weaves a very different web. The NL MVP has no clear cut winner in my book, so I'm leaning towards Jay Bruce with the Reds in the playoffs. I'm also going Kershaw for Cy Young winner. That one's a pretty easy pick.

What do you got?


TODD:
Hmmm.

Well, I do still like the Reds. They have one of the strongest teams, top to bottom, in the league. As for the Angels selection, I can only assume that I was aiming for some sort of reverse jinx to remove one of the Yankees' top competitors...and it worked like a charm! You're welcome. The Angels pitching was horrid all year and their big bats flamed out masterfully, with the exception of your boy Mike Trout.

As for the Dodgers, I'm still not sure how they finished the year so well. I guess their two-man rotation got a huge lift from Hyun-Jin Ryu, who was amazing all year. Forget Yasiel Puig; Ryu was probably the Dodgers best rookie this season. And the bullpen was good even though Brandon League threw over 50 innings while sporting a 5.40 ERA and 1.56 WHIP. The lineup, on the other hand, is pretty inexplicable. Three, count em, three of the Dodgers four best hitters (according to offensive WAR) had comeback seasons for the ages. Hanley Ramirez was their best batter, by a lot, and the majority of fans thought his career was over. The same goes for Adrian Gonzalez. And Andre Either somehow brought himself from a future fourth or fifth outfielder to a three-win player who hit 30 doubles and was serviceable everyday.

Overall, this team's success still doesn't make sense. Matt Kemp had fewer than 300 at-bats; Hanley had barely over 300 ABs and still accumulated more than 5 wins above replacement. Hell, Zack Greinke was ninth on the team in offensive WAR. Yes, OFFENSIVE WAR, starting pitcher Zack Greinke, who had all of 56 at-bats this season. It's astonishing.

All that being said, I see the Dodgers as the most likely team to lose their first round series but we'll get to playoff predictions later in the week. As for regular season awards:

I think you have it backwards in the AL. I think Mike Trout should, and does, take home the MVP this season. He could have gotten it last year, and would have if Cabrera fell short in one of the triple crown categories. Well, this year Cabrera has been outstanding but he's been banged up much of the month of September. And really, the way these things work, how can the voters disregard Trout two years in a row with the seasons he's had? He is just as good of a hitter as Cabrera in nearly ever category, with the exception of the home run power, but blows Miggy away on the base paths and on defense. Everyone knows team success should not factor into MVP voting. I love Cabrera. Actually, this is funny how this worked out since Trout is your guy and Miggy is mine but I think Trout gets the award.

I actually agree with you on AL Cy Young; it's going to be Max Scherzer. Chris Sale had been the best pitcher in the American League all year, and he still does lead the league in WAR. But his peripheral stats are not that much better than Scherzer's. And Max hits all the number thresholds: 20+ wins, ERA under 3, WHIP under 1, well over 200 strikeouts. He gets it.

In the NL, you are right again with the Cy Young; it is Clayton Kershaw and it's not even close.

As for MVP, way to be wrong on both accounts. First, Jay Bruce is a ludicrous pick. He's not even the best hitter on his own team. That would be Joey Votto. But you are also wrong with there being no clear-cut winner because that man is Andrew McCutchen. He is near the top five of pretty much every offensive category in existence. His team had its best season in decades. He runs. He plays defense. He does it all. McCutchen may not be a brand name yet but that doesn't mean he's not the easy MVP pick.


DAN:
Playoff predictions.... playoff predictions. Do I stick with my New Years' picks or clean slate and re-evaluate after a full season of games? Once the play-in game for the final American League wild card spot, along with the two single elimination wild card games are in the books, we can make some real playoff predictions. I still like my Braves.

[Part two - Playoff Prognostication & the Off season]

Fan Focus: Etiquette on the Road - Part one

Fan Focus: Etiquette on the Road - Part one
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (9-9-13)



DAN:
With the height of baseball season colliding perfectly with the start of the NFL calendar, let's take a long hard look at the fans for a moment. Fan Focus, telling you how not to be an ass for over ten years (length of time may be embellished).

Today I want to talk about stadium / ball park / arena etiquette. And not for the home crowd. They basically get to do whatever the hell they want. Its their team, their turf and their rules. I'm talking about watching your team play on the road, in the enemies backyard. Their are rules people and things to avoid so as not to get stabbed.

Do you have much experience with seeing your teams on the road? I've been watching the Yankees play the Angels out here in Anaheim for eight years running. Its an incredibly delightful experience and nothing like when I went to watch my New York Jets play the Patriots in Foxboro. I've seen the Celtics here in Los Angeles play the Clippers as well. Each sport is slightly different, but the rules don't change.

I'll start with rule number one and you can call me an idiot for bringing this up and give me rule number two.

First rule of fandom on the road; sit on the visiting side of the field. For baseball this is pretty easy to do, but with football its much greyer. My experience watching the Jets in New England brought me face to face with the roudy drunk Masshole Pats fan. I was in the upper deck, around plenty of Jets fans, but far outnumbered none the less. I wore a Jets hat, but nothing else. I felt that was respectful. Gotta show team spirit, but no need to rub it in on the road. But when I cheered on my team I found myself all too close to several fights, with beer thrown in my general direction. It was cold outside, bitter cold, too cold to tell if the beer actually hit me. Stupid bleeping Patriots fans.


TODD:
Road fan etiquette, as you hinted at, has almost nothing to do with the actions of the specific road fan. It has everything to do with the home environment the actions are taking place in. As you said, you got heckled and harassed just for wearing a Jets hat in Gillette Stadium. We hear stories of fans getting beaten up and sent to the hospital seemingly every season just for being fans of the opposing team. Perhaps those certain people were rowdy and inciting anger from the home crowd, but that is still no reason to cripple someone. I think no matter the actions, it is dangerous to be an opposing fan in certain locales. That is just the sad state of present sports fandom.

So first rule of road fan etiquette altered: only be an opposing fan in weak home parks, i.e. Atlanta basketball, Jacksonville football, etc. This way, not only will the crowd as a whole be sparse, but the likelihood of home fans rallying up enough to cause you fear or harm is limited.

The ironic part is these types of crowds are considered bad fan bases. You glossed over home crowd responsibility, but I want to go back to that. Home crowds have some etiquette of their own. The obvious ones exist:

- Don't cheer loudly at a home football game when your team is on offense
- Don't start a wave at a baseball game; it makes your fans look disinterested and childish
- Don't yell randomly when your basketball team is shooting free throws

These are the easy ones. The grey area that most often comes up for home crowds though, for collegiate sports at least, is when to charge the field/court. When is it okay to leap from the stands onto the playing field after a victory? If you topple the number one team in the country, this seems warranted. But what if you are the number eight team in the country? Does it not then seem a bit silly?

This has been dissected before on other platforms, but I am never quite content with the results. What should be the requirements for when a home, collegiate crowd can rush the court?


DAN:
Way to skip rule number two and jump right on the home team. But I LOVE that you brought up the wave as a major red flag for home teams. This ties nicely into my second rule.

The second rule for road fans; go watch your team in a fan friendly venue. One of my absolute favorite spots to go watch the Yankees is at Angels' Stadium in Anaheim. Angels' fans are really great, nice, inviting and just positive all around. They have the Rally Monkey and home run fireworks, but aren't dicks about you cheering for the opposition. Plus, when the Yankees are in town the stadium is at least 1/3 full of Yankees fans. Win!

But guess what else happens ALL the TIME in Angels' stadium? The wave! They do the wave a ton in that ballpark. Granted its practically at Disney Land so being childish is not unexpected. But they love the wave and I love visiting that ballpark.

Now to the hard question. What are the rules for rushing the court, storming the field, rushing the mound? I have only two.

[Part two - Storming the Court]

MLB at the Break: 2nd half thoughts & The Derby - Part two

MLB at the Break: 2nd half thoughts & The Derby - Part two
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (7-12-13)

[Part one - Let's knock some Dingers!]



DAN:
True, true, the Home Run Derby has the stars. It would definitely stink without them, but you missed on your analogy. The Home Run Derby isn't repetitive, its completely different than the NBA dunk contest! The goal of the HR derby is to hit as many home runs as possible. That goal gets amazing and awesome when a guy is hitting dinger after dinger, fifteen, sixteen or more out of the park. It works in reverse too, as everyone wants the player to get at least one homer. That's a great show!

To compare it to the NBA dunk contest we have to change the rules. What if the HR Derby's objective was to hit the longest long ball? Each HR gets measured and the player has ten chances for the longest dinger. That's boring and that's what the dunk contest has become. Do your wildest and craziest dunk and then get a score for it. You have three shots, or whatever. This worked with the stars involved only because it was the stars, not because the idea itself is a good one. The NBA Dunk contest should copy what works for the MLB Home Run Derby. Give a player sixty seconds and let him dunk away. How many dunks will he get? Does he clang a few off the rim and will that cost him the crown? I love this new idea! I'd like to replace David Stern now, thank you.

Let's move on. How about that second half of the season coming up? You know, the half that matters. When we find out if a team is actually good or not. I'm liking the Dodgers chances right now of fulfilling my prophecy from May 1st and making the playoffs.


TODD:
All that gibberish about multiple dunks and long home runs sounded just awful. But it did remind me of something actually interesting! Remember how in those "MLB The Show" video games they had a mini-game where there were locations on the field or items on the field that batters had to hit? It was like a non-home run derby, batting accuracy I suppose. Anyways, it was great fun and I would be totally in if they ever televised a real one, just to see who had the best bat control. I know this doesn't help the dunk contest but, come on, the most dunks in 60 seconds? Really?

Real quick, before we move on to the second half of the MLB season, David Wright and Robinson Cano picked their derby teammates. Wright went with Carlos Gonzalez (leads the NL in dingers) who was replaced by Pedro Alvarez because of injury, Bryce Harper (currently ranks second in the NL in awesomeness after Yasiel Puig) and Michael Cuddyer (apparently a hometown/childhood buddy of Wright's so we get it, tossing his friend a bone). Cano chose Prince Fielder (past derby king), Chris Davis (ML leader in home runs) and ... that's it. Supposedly he's asked Miguel Cabrera as well, but Miggy is waiting to see if his back is going to be healthy enough. If it isn't, who knows who Cano will take with him?

Update: The AL's final derby spot has been taken by Cuban phenom Yoenis Cespedes, who, I suppose, is literally the next best thing to getting Yasiel Puig in this thing.

I think the AL wins in a landslide but, individually, I kind of like Harper. I could see him going Josh Hamilton circa 2008 on this bitch (Of course, astute readers will recall that Hamilton actually lost that year's derby to Justin Morneau, but whatevs). With that being said, if we were to rank the contestants in likelihood of victory, the AL has to have something like three of the top four favorites.

Now, onto the real baseball coming up. The AL East looks like it is rounding into shape. Unfortunately for us, that shape has the Yankees in fourth place. Unless Jeter and A-Rod return with a vengeance, this team is not making the playoffs. They simply cannot score runs. I personally wouldn't mind if they dealt away one of their starting pitchers for a young bat, but that isn't exactly a Yankee thing to do. It wouldn't be quitting on the season either necessarily, since they have seven legit starting pitchers in line for the second half. But still, the Yankees are not ones to trade for prospects or deal away a strength.

The other AL team we are keeping our eyes on, the Angels, sit just 1.5 games behind the Dodgers! This impressive run LA has gone on has been matched nearly game for game by...LA. Now sure, the Angels are actually 9 games behind in the AL West, and stand little chance of making the playoffs. But you should not benefit by the suckiness of the NL West. Just because San Francisco has fallen off a cliff, Colorado came back to what we expected and San Diego stinks, does not mean you should get credit if the Dodgers make the playoffs. This is why I wanted it to be a strict record comparison: who finishes with a better record. Who cares about the standings? That's all arbitrary, like a win for a starting pitcher. Too much is out of their hands as far as a win goes. It's all about the xFIP baby! Get rid of those factors out of your control and hold a real apples to apples comparison. Or are you scared the Angels are going to pass your Dodgers? In other news, Matt Kemp is on the DL AGAIN.


DAN:
Apples to Apples is all well and good, if not a tiresome board game after thirty minutes. But I'm sorry, you can have your Angels sitting at seven games over .500 and out of the playoffs come season's end. I'll take the Dodgers at a mere three games over .500, in first place in the NL West and heading to the post season. Hmm. I wonder which will be considered a successful season? The team that sits at home in October, or the one that won its division and is playing for a championship. The Dodgers are only 1.5 games out of first, by the way.

Also, let me throw your argument further back in your face. Yes, the NL West is a significantly weaker division than the AL West. That is non debatable. But comparing the two divisions is hypocritical and is apples to oranges. The Dodgers don't get to choose their competition, they only have the simple goal of being better than them. Same with the Angels. Prediction, the Dodgers and Angels finish with identical records. The Angels sit at home and the Dodgers head to the playoffs as division champs. That way I win without your asterisk.

More importantly, Derek Jeter returned to action yesterday with a solid performance at DH. So check off number one on your list please, assuming his MRI is negative. The Yankees' offense can be offensive, but its also quite powerful. Overall its been streaky, but with dominant starting pitching only improving down the stretch, I'm confident in our guys winning enough one and two run games to pull out a playoff spot. They may have to win the wild card game (thank you new system), but I'm fine with that.

In October what wins year after year? Its pitching. Hitting goes cold and pitching wins. Our hitting is already cold, so it can only heat up.  And last I checked the Yankees have a solid rotation and a stacked bullpen. I like our chances!

[If you missed Part one - Let's knock some Dingers!]

MLB one month Over Reaction - Part one

MLB one month Over Reaction - Part one
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (5-6-13)



DAN:
The first month of the baseball season is notoriously poor at being an indicator for the rest of the season, but May on the other hand is not. I think you know where this is headed... April flubs and shaky studs!

We've had some surprise success and failure this past month, but in my opinion none has been more surprising than the Dodgers and Angels who find themselves five and half and nine games out of the division lead respectively. On paper they are chock full of studs, but neither has really started clicking yet. They had some injuries, sure, but so have our Yankees and they are looking mighty fine. My spider sense tells me that only one of the two will be a contender after a month of futility. Who do you got?

Give me your flubs and shaky studs for April and perchance reflect on the the ramifications or utter uselessness of trying to look at April as a barometer for the MLB season.


TODD:
April is notoriously pointless. There is no way around this. From the beginning of the season, I thought the Dodgers were being overvalued. They have a ton of holes. The Angels, on the other hand, I was pretty sure would be good. With just that simple judgement and knowing April is pointless, I would have to go with the Angels being the LA playoff team if I was picking one.

If people need proof of April being utterly irrelevant, here are the following stats, which are completely true; everything listed below was 100% accurate as of the final day of the month of April.

- The Oakland A's and the Colorado Rockies scored the most runs in the AL and NL respectively.

- Pittsburgh was in first place in the NL Central even though their run differential is way worse than both St. Louis and Cincinnati.

- Toronto was in last place in the AL East and the aforementioned Angels can claim only one more win than Houston.

- The Rockies had the most April wins in the entire National League. Let that one sink in for a minute.


If league standings and team results being bogus isn't enough for you, I have April player stats as well!

- John Buck was on pace for 54 home runs and 150 RBI. Seriously, John Buck.

- The following players had an OPS over 1.000: Dexter Fowler, Carlos Gomez, Wilin Rosario.

- Jake Westbrook leads all starters in ERA with a mark of 0.98.

- Clay Bucholz and Jon Lester combined to go 9-0 after going 20-22 last year.

- Jason Grilli, the Pirates' closer, leads the league in saves and is a perfect 10 for 10 in chances.


Oh, you say those statistics are too basic and are prone to dramatic ups and downs? Well, let's use some WAR (wins above replacement) numbers then. Now WAR is not perfect, we all know, but as an overarching stat, it is pretty damn good. Here are some April WAR numbers to take with a huge, gigantic grain of salt:

- Matt Wieters has a lower WAR than the following catchers: Yan Gomes, Michael McKenry, Welington Castillo and yes, I have never heard of at least two of those three men.

- Adam LaRoche, Paul Konerko and Allen Craig have been so bad (accumulating negative WAR scores), their teams would have technically been better off if they hadn't even played. Same goes for Adrian Beltre and Asdrubal Cabrera.

- Of qualifying players, Rickie Weeks and Maicer Izturis were the two worst second basemen in all of baseball in the month of April.

- David Freese ranked 52 out of 56 qualifying third basemen in WAR. Josh Donaldson ranked 5th.

- Kevin Correia is tied for the 7th best pitcher in baseball with a WAR of 1.5.

- Matt Cain is tied for the 7th worst mark with a WAR of -0.8.


So here we are, finally in the month of May. What is real and what is not from April baseball? Well, to summarize, everything from April is a joke and nothing is real. Whoever is in first place on April 30 probably won't be on August 30. Be patient; this is baseball after all.


DAN:
A week ago I would have agreed with you, putting the Angels in the playoffs over the Dodgers. Now, with one full month in the books, I'm taking the Dodgers. Two reasons for my support of the boys in blue and not our friends down in Anaheim. First, the Dodgers are five and half games back which is very doable at this point in the year. They've played poorly, but should get a big lift when their pitching arms return to the rotation. Also, this is the first full season that their batting lineup has played together, so some growing pains can be expected. I like their chances against the other NL West teams who are not scaring anyone.

The Angels on the other hand are nine games back. This makes it highly unlikely they will win the division, but does not put the wildcard out of the question. Yet Albert Pujols is going on the DL probably sooner than later. He's injured and can only gut through it for so long. Add to that the loss of their pitching ace and you have a team in a deep, deep hole.

The second reason I'm on board with the Dodgers is the competition they'll face. Like I said, no one in the NL West scares me and I give the Dodgers a real shot to capture the division crown. The Giants may hold on tight, but the Dodgers can capitalize on wins against the remaining division foes to secure a wildcard berth. The Angels, unfortunately, have their work cut of for them. Texas will win the division and the A's are no pushovers either. They played the Yankees really hard over the weekend and proved you can't overlook them. So the Angels need a wildcard spot, and they won't get one. The AL is too good once again.

Now to the crazy, yet real, stats you through out there. I'm going to tell you if any of them will still be true at the All Star break.

[Part two - MLB April stats mean NOTHING]

Thirteen Predictions for 2013 - Part Three

Thirteen Predictions for 2013 - Part Three

by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (1-7-13)

[Part One] [Part Two]

TODD:

I think Tony Romo getting traded is a distinct possibility but, come on, Matt Barkley going 12th overall?? He had a down year, then got hurt. Unless he has a magical combine, teams noticed his lack of superior arm strength this season and should be wary of his decision making after the Trojans' season fell apart. If Barkley couldn't win in college with that much talent, how can NFL scouts expect him to excel at the next level when the talent is much more evenly dispersed?

The only reason your Barkley comment isn't so bad is because your next predictions overshadow it with stupidity. Why would the Yankees sign Michael Bourn? He is a Scott Boras client so we know NY won't be able to get him cheap or get a one year deal there, which would be in direct competition with their 2014-get-under-the-tax plan. Also, they already have two starting outfielders who do nearly the exact same thing as Michael Bourn. Ichiro and Brett Gardner are both no power, high speed and contact outfielders. Bourn is better than either of them but brings no new skills to the Yankees outfield. 

(10) Speaking of stupid predictions, we can all tell you are not a golf fan by the way you ordered your Phil Mickelson guess. The Masters takes place in April, so if Phil were to win the green jacket and retire, shouldn't that have been number six or seven on this list? To make matters worse, it ain't happening! Phil, although only 42, has too many younger and more talented guys ahead of him in the chase for the green jacket. Give it to Zach Johnson instead. 

(11) With all the spending going on in MLB these days, the deeper pocketed teams extend their advantage over everyone else. The World Series matchup will be indicative of this. The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim will be back in the series on the backs of their loaded lineup and sterling pitching to face the Cincinnati Reds. With Albert Pujols, Josh Hamilton and highly paid, highly skilled players all through their 25-man roster, the Angels take the series in six games even though Joey Votto comes out of October looking like the best player in the league. 

(12) As December rolls around, the Carolina Panthers will have the best record in the NFL. Behind MVP-candidate Cam Newton and the best rushing attack in the league, Carolina continues the trend of teams making huge leaps from one season to another. The lack of an elite pass rush will thwart the Panthers' chances to make it to the Super Bowl but, by this time, every football fan in the country realizes the best team in the regular season in no way correlates to the Super Bowl champ come February.

(13) In college football, for the final BCS Championship game before the playoff system is instituted, the Ohio State Buckeyes will face LSU in a rematch of the 2007 title game contest. Urban Meyer proved this past season how much better of a coach he is than everyone else in America. Give him a year to recruit where OSU is not on probation and the Buckeyes will be fearsome. 

As for who will win this game, you'll have to wait for next year's predictions because that game will not take place until January 2014.

DAN: 

Hey!  I'm a fan of the idea of a golf outing.  And don't discount the ineptitude of NFL scouting.  Matt Barkley is getting his shot.  Furthermore, the Yankees better sign someone new in the outfield as injury insurance if not batting lineup improvement, otherwise this is going to be a very, very long season.  Where's our new blood!

(11)  If I had to pick one team I'd want in the World Series, and the Yankees were out, then it would be the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.  This would at least provide me the opportunity to attend a game, if my wallet was big enough.  Sorry Dodgers, but your stadium falls way short in the fun to attend department.  Otherwise, your prediction appears well thought out, based in fact, and not entirely off the mark.  I see both the Angels and Reds as playoff teams, but neither is making the World Series.

With my hand to the fire and removing the Yankees from the equation, since I can't honestly pick against my team unless forced to, I'd say the Braves face the Rays in the World Series.  The team with the healthiest pitching wins... Atlanta.

(12)  Predicting Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams will both stay healthy all year is a huge leap of faith! As for my pick of the team to make a huge leap next season, its the one dearest to my heart.  The NY Jets bounce back to finish 10-6 and make the playoffs.  The defense really gelled this past year and is a standout group again in 2013.  The running game finally takes hold with Joe McKnight splitting the load with Bilal Powell.  As for QB, I already touched on this in a somewhat wishful thinking manner, but I'm not concerned.  There are plenty of QBs out there who can do better than 50 turnovers in two seasons.

(13)  I'm heading in a different direction for next year's college football season, as I can probably rattle off the top five teams, but isolating the top two is arbitrary at best.  I'm jumping on the "Johnny Football" bandwagon and predicting that Johnny Manziel wins back to back Heisman trophies for Texas A&M. 

[Part One]   [Part Two]

Prediction Summary and Wrap up on Friday