The Madness of March is Here! Or is it? - Part One

The Madness of March is Here! Or is it? - Part One
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (3-4-13)

TODD:

This has been one of the most wild college basketball seasons in my adult life. Top five teams are getting bounced week after week; the rankings have almost become irrelevant or added encouragement for the underdog, depending on how you look at it.

No team is safe with multiple schools having already lost as the number one team in the nation. This would ordinarily spell trouble for fans trying to predict playoff advancement. If even the best teams are constantly falling, who can you rely on?

However, when it comes to March Madness, where upsets are routine and unpredictability is always predictable, this may be to our advantage. When is a better time to ride the top teams than when the public (i.e. stupid squares who lose lots of money all the time in anything they bet) is going to be going hard against them?

With all that being said, which type of Big Dance do you prefer: the upsets straight through, leaving everyone's bracket in shambles or seeing the "best" teams advance through to the Final Four?

DAN:

My favorite type of Big Dance is the one where my picks are right and I chose the champion correctly. That's only happened three times. I picked UConn, North Carolina and Duke correctly over the last decade. Go me! I know, all heavy favorites or top two seeds in the years they won. And if I'm being totally honest, I've chosen the champion correctly three times but definitely have NEVER gotten the majority of my picks correct. I've picked tons of upsets and I've picked next to none. No matter which way I go, I'm rarely over 50% and its because of exactly what you noted. Putting anything over fifty bucks on the tourney is nuts because you'll probably lose that money. Go play video poker instead. Vegas!

As for your question, I'd much rather see the top seeds advance. I like two number one's in the Final Four, a two or three and then one surprise team ranked six to eight. Balance. Then we get exciting games in the later rounds as well as some "Cinderella" drama and the reality that the rankings are not great and we're left with what we expected. Even three number one's in the Final Four is good, but anything less than two and you lost me a round or so ago. I know little to nothing about the Texas A&M's or Louisiana Lafayette's of the world and have no desire to actually watch them play basketball.

My entire March Madness experience hinges on the picks I've made. The upsets should stay in the first weekend and after that I'm all for chalk. It's hard for me, because the tournament has really lost its luster over the last five plus years. All the best college players are one and done to the NBA, so consequently I know no one. I use to know guys from the year before, watching them play in March Madness, but now anyone worth caring about leaves. It makes it tough to care, unless you enjoy following the sport during the regular season. I know you do, so I'm sure you have an opposing view. If not then just give me some picks! I made my Final Four selections back during the first week of January. What do you think now?

TODD:

Even though no one wants to admit it, I think most of America agrees with you. People care about their brackets and upsets in the first or second round. After that, they want the top seeds advancing. The television ratings back this up. The years when George Mason and VCU went way farther than anyone anticipated, the viewership was down for those games. Buzzer beaters are nice in the round of 32. But in the Elite Eight, Americans want the best competing.

As for my tournament outlook, I'm really high on the SEC this year and really low on the ACC. The SEC is pretty awful after their top three teams but I think both Florida and Missouri are awesome and Kentucky can still make waves. I could see either Florida or Mizzou making the Final Four, Missouri's current struggles not withstanding.

The ACC, on the other hand, has a number of top teams but I have little confidence in them. NC State and North Carolina have already shown their true colors; they simply are not as good as we anticipated coming into the year. The opposite can be said about Miami but I would not feel good about backing them for a long tournament run; nor Duke for that matter. Duke always scares me since they can lose to anyone if their shots are not falling.

Outside of those two conferences, the stories are all in the Big 10. As many as five different Big 10 schools are good enough to make the Final Four (Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State and Minnesota) and I wouldn't be surprised if two of the final four came from that conference.

But enough explaining myself. I know people only care about picks and when picks are wrong so here goes:

The Final Four will consist of Missouri, Michigan, Ohio State and Syracuse.

[Part 2 - Picks, Colin Cowherd and more Madness]