Showing posts with label March Madness. Show all posts
Showing posts with label March Madness. Show all posts

Monday, December 23, 2013

2014 Sports Predictions - Part one


2014 Sports Predictions - Part one
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (12-23-13)



Our predictions played out so well last year, we at Seesaw Sports are ending this year with ten new predictions for 2014. Another crazy year of sports is on the way and we'll tell you who wins and who goes home crying. Ten sports predictions for 2014.



TODD:

1)
2014 Super Bowl teams

Since the beginning of the season, I had pegged the Broncos and the 49ers as my Super Bowl picks. I thought they were the best two teams entering the year, and both looked poised to compete in the playoffs. However, it's a total cop-out when prognosticators hang on an old prediction when a better one has made itself evident. Denver still seems like the likeliest AFC squad to advance through the playoffs, but San Francisco is not better than Seattle, especially if the Seahawks have home field advantage. So I'm going with Denver and Seattle. Now, of course, if San Fran does end up making it, I can still take credit for that as well. I've set myself up for the double prediction!

I have a feeling you will come up with another selection entirely, but it seems as though you'd be grasping at straws. Everyone is flawed. These are the two teams with the fewest. That being said, when is the last time the two "best" teams actually made the Super Bowl? It's been a while.

2) March Madness prediction

Again, I am forced to refer back to prior, mysterious statements that no one can confirm, but coming into the college basketball season, I was very high on Arizona. Of course, now everyone is since the Wildcats climbed their way to the number one ranking in the country. They will certainly not remain number one all year, but I do like them to advance to the Final Four.

A couple other teams I like are Memphis and New Mexico. I don't know if they both will make the Final Four but let's say they both advance past their seeding in the NCAA Tournament. Wait, that's another cop-out. Okay, Elite Eight. They both make the Elite Eight.

3) NBA Finals MVP

This is silly, so I will rephrase things and throw it back to you. If I gave you two options for this,

Option A - LeBron James
Option B - everyone else

Which would you choose?

4) Alex Rodriguez results

In the case of Alex Rodriguez, my prediction is that the arbiter in charge of the proceedings decides to lower the suspension levied against A-Rod but does not erase it entirely. The most logical scenario would seem to be Rodriguez getting his suspension lowered to the 50-game level that everyone else in this drama received. So the A-Bomb is out until early June sometime. By that point, I am sure Yankee fans will be exhausted by Kelly Johnson's exploits and actually welcome Alex back. (I like Kelly Johnson! but not as an everyday player. Get real.)

5) NFL Draft prediction

I'll save my World Series picks until Friday because I have some NFL draft thoughts to cover first. There will be as many as six quarterbacks taken in the first round of the 2014 NFL Draft. You heard me! Even with Marcus Mariota returning to school, the QB crop is as deep as it's been in years, and teams are desperate for a franchise signal caller. To clarify, there will most certainly NOT be six quarterbacks worthy of a first round grade, but at least six get taken day one.


DAN:

1)
The two best teams rarely make the Super Bowl and this year's game will be no different. Mojo is the biggest factor in playoff success and two teams stand out with the most mojo this season. The Carolina Panthers will represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. Their mojo couldn't be higher after a monster win over New Orleans this past week. And in the AFC I'm revisiting my prediction from last year, yet this time its coming true. The New England Patriots will continue to defy the odds and roll past the competition on their way to the big game.

Mark it down, we're having a good old fashioned rematch this February. Panthers vs. Patriots for the title.

2) I'm going in a different direction with my initial March Madness prediction. I'm calling it, a team seeded ten or lower will make the Final Four this March. I'm also high on Duke and Arizona, both are Elite Eight teams this season for sure.

3) I like this game, because you have to take the field as I'm going with Lebron James for NBA MVP. I feel pretty darn good about my odds here. Go Heat!

4) I think Alex gets a slightly higher suspension, missing an aesthetically pleasing 65 games. But I don't think he returns to the Yankees this season. As long as teams like Seattle need names to fill seats, A-rod has value on the open market. The Yankees eat half his salary and trade him for some youth. Where you ask? I'm leaning towards Seattle or Colorado. Just a gut feeling.

5) Wow, hard to top that type of prediction. I know the quarterback needs around the league are running high, but six quarterbacks in the first round? I'm predicting the top pick in the draft will NOT be a quarterback. Round two is the new round one for QBs and this year will be more of the same. I like six quarterbacks in round two, but only two taken in round one. Johnny Football slips into round two for sure and the Redskins draft a quarterback. How about them apples?





Friday, December 20, 2013

2013 Sports Predictions Recap


2013 Sports Predictions Recap
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (12-20-13)



TODD:
Well my brother, we have been at this for an entire year now. Back in December of 2012, we each made a list of predictions for the coming year. Some were pretty good; some were horrible. I thought it'd be fun to take a peak back at some of our guesses for 2013, in preparation for doing the same, idiotic, neck-on-the-line exercise this month as well.

To start things off, let's just say I know my football pretty damn well. I had Alabama winning the 2013 BCS Championship by more than a touchdown. They ended up winning 42-14 over Notre Dame.

I had the San Francisco 49ers making the Super Bowl. I don't even remember predicting that. Why didn't I gloat about it more at the time? Oh, I know why. Because you piggybacked on my pick and also took San Fran!

Continuing my hot football picks, I liked Mike Glennon as the best rookie QB coming out of the draft, and I said "as December rolls around, the Carolina Panthers will have the best record in the NFL." How bout that? Pretty close, right? I'm taking credit for that as a correct prediction.

You weren't too shabby yourself in the football department. Other than nailing the 49ers, you had Johnny Manziel winning another Heisman Trophy and, well, he was a finalist!

You also had the Braves, Rays and Reds all as MLB playoff teams, although your World Series pick was off and you liked the LA Angels more than the LA Dodgers; ooof. Why don't you go ahead and tell us where we were off so we know what to steer clear of this time around?


DAN:
Right off the bat, I'm happy to say I was wrong in picking the Patriots to reach the 2013 Super Bowl. They got within a Ravens' miracle of making it, but still fell short. Something to avoid in this year's predictions? How about putting New England in the 2014 Super Bowl for starters.

We also sucked at predicting the NCAA Men's Basketball Final Four. Now mind you, its December and March Madness is known for being wildly unpredictable, but we were WAY off the mark. I got one team correct, the Syracuse Orange Men, but put Duke, NC State and Texas in there. You abstained from making this prediction, which was a good idea in hindsight as Louisville, Wichita State and Michigan were the three teams to join Syracuse in the Final Four. I'm willing to pick the Final Four again, but it will have zero basis in reality. Zero!

I'd also suggest we steer clear of MLB trades. I wishfully placed Evan Longoria on the Yankees and you ignorantly put Curtis Granderson on another team mid-season. Sure, sure he left in free agency, but the damage was done. We missed completely on our MLB trade predictions.

Swing and a miss, you were off the mark with the New York Jets as well. I bet you salivated when they signed David Garrard in the offseason, as you predicted their week one starter wasn't yet on the team and would not be a rookie. Alas, the starter all year has been rookie QB Geno Smith.

For some reason I made a golf prediction, stating Phil Michelson would win the Masters and retire from the sport. I'll mark that down as misguided. Moving on...

I commend you for attempting to predict the final BCS title game, but Ohio State vs. LSU was just wishful thinking. It will be Auburn vs. Florida State for the final BCS Championship. I smartly avoided this prediction.

We did thirteen predictions for 2013, but that was obviously over our heads as prognosticators. Lets make it an even ten this year and kick things off Monday with our first five predictions. Here's my wish list to get things started:

1 - 2014 Super Bowl teams

2 - A March Madness prediction

3 - NBA Finals MVP

4 - Alex Rodriguez results

5 - MLB World Series 2014

6 - Surprise NFL team of 2014 (biggest turn around perhaps)

7 - World Cup prediction

8 - First College Football Playoff prediction



[2014 Predictions on Monday]



Friday, November 15, 2013

NCAA College Basketball: Remaking the game - Part two


NCAA College Basketball: Remaking the game - Part two
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (11-15-13)

[Part one - League of Children]



TODD:
I don't think you quite understand the term "win-win." It is not a win for college basketball that this is happening. Sure, this one season they will have transcendent freshmen all over the nation. But what about next year? This draft class is a once-in-a-decade type deal, maybe even more rare than that. And is this one year in college actually helping the growth of these guys once they turn pro? I haven't seen the statistics but I wonder how much better the one-and-dones have been as compared to the guys who were coming straight from high school years ago. Obviously both groups have huge successes and huge failures but overall, both the NBA and NCAA make us think this is working. I'm not sold.

To your point that college basketball has become a proving ground for future pros, this is both correct and wrong. It is correct factual, in that it is actually happening. It is wrong morally though, in that it should not be happening.

Many have suggested an MLB-type declaration situation to solve this problem. A prospective pro coming out of high school can either enter his name in the draft right away or, if he decides to go to college, he must stay three years. I like this solution on the surface but it wouldn't have saved college basketball. Remember how eight of the top eleven draft picks are incoming college freshmen? Well, with that draft rule in place, all eight of those guys would have entered the 2013 NBA draft. So instead of having one year of them, the NCAA would have gotten none.

The only solution is to go all-out and throw our cards on the table. College basketball is an inferior product; everyone should agree on this, even the staunchest defenders. No one can argue the basketball being played on the court is better at the collegiate level than at the pros. That would be ludicrous. So why not adopt the 'high school or three years' draft rule with a caveat? Anyone entering the NBA draft out of high school plays their first year of basketball in the NBDL, the developmental league. Right now the asset that is the D-League is being wasted. A player dropped down to it is deemed a disaster or a failure. Remove the galling stigma attached to the NBDL by making it a young man's learning league. All the best 18 year olds in the world will be learning on the fly against guys just short of NBA talent. This would be better for them than a year of college. It would also be better for the NBA by avoiding the flood of high schoolers who aren't ready for the professional ranks just yet that occurred when the old draft rules were in place.

But what about college basketball you ask? Well, CBB gets dumbed down because there is no win-win option here. It loses the elite talent that would otherwise play one season. But what it gains is better: players coming who want to be there, want to learn and want to play for a school. It will grow consistency and the overall product on the floor will be better, even if the top level is slightly worse. College basketball is never going to be as exciting or athletic or as powerful as the NBA game; why try to force it?


DAN:
There is no way to force an NBA level product out of college basketball. There is not nearly enough talent to go around. If there were THAT many NBA level players, we'd have 100 teams in the NBA. So we can safely throw that hope, prayer, ignorant folly out the window. And you're right, improving the NBDL by having draft picks who skip college spend a year there will ultimately hurt the college game. It would also take a huge effort on the part of the NBA to make this work. Can you name me a single D-League player or team? Where are they, who is playing and when do they even play? I have no idea. Talk about a lot of money needed to sell an invisible product. I'm chucking that idea in the trash too. I'm also against forcing three years of college upon someone obviously ready to make millions of dollars. Trashing it!

I love your ingenuity, your willingness to change and find a new model that can potentially elevate both the NBA and college basketball. But I think you're avoiding the obvious. If a player wants to be in college, stay in college, and play for his school for two, three, four years, there is absolutely nothing stopping him. These elite freshman don't have to enter the draft after one year of college basketball. They are choosing to. They have a choice. And you know why all eight of them will most likely make the choice to leave, because all of us in the public and the media would consider them stupid to say in college. Take your money when its on the table. Don't risk injury. Blah, blah, blah. They would get lambasted for going back. Andrew Luck practically did, but because college football is held in such high regard and there is less money in the NFL draft now, it wasn't deemed such a bad decision.

I agree, having the freshman earn their stripes against NBA bench players is better for their careers than playing in college. But the glaringly obvious truth you've missed is that college basketball has changed. The whole reason you want to 'fix' things is because you can remember a time when it was great. When players played in college and rivalries were real and school spirit meant something. That era is dead. Money and a booming NBA killed it. Accept this fact and move on.... Are you good now? Tears all dry? Cool, now we can have a real debate.

NCAA basketball can be improved. The quality of play has been reasonably consistent over the last ten years. The best coaches have excellent teams and the superstar players stand out when they exist. They are the anomaly. We have at the very most, ten of them sprinkled over fifty or more schools every year. Remove them from this equation. I think the biggest thing holding back the college game is a lack of scoring. They've made strides to address this, but more should/can be done. The best parts of March Madness are when a game gets tight down the stretch, with under two minutes to play. Those games are often 60 to 55 or something ridiculous like that. You get your 70 and 80 point games, but do you see the problem? NBA games are 90 and 100 point affairs. Scoring 80 or less is a fire-able offense. I think some rule changes are in order! Good thing the NCAA already made some. I smell debate.

Let's first address the changes made heading into this college basketball season. You're the perfect man for this job. Did the NCAA do enough with the current changes? I realize we have yet to see the full results, but they only did tweaking as far as I'm concerned; was it enough? I want to increase scoring and remove the annoyance of two minutes at the end of a game taking nearly thirty minutes of my time. Cut that down to ten or fifteen and I'm good. And I'm not talking small changes like shortening the shot clock. That's a good start, but we need BIG game changers. What about adding a line at NBA three point range that would count for four points? Or removing time outs in the first half entirely, except for injury. Light a fire under college basketball.


TODD:
Your complete dismissal of my D-League idea is very pigheaded of you. My idea solves the one problem you touched on. No one knows anything about the NBDL or follows it in the least. This will change instantly if all the best NBA rookies play there. Every season, half a dozen or so D-League guys get called up to the majors. Now, people will follow the progress of their team's top rookie as well as hear about/watch some other potential rotation players that might be on the way as well. The only downside to this is logistically; the NBDL is not setup like minor league baseball. NBA teams do not all have D-League affiliations...yet.

Your defense of the current rule is also disappointing. You stood by it claiming these guys have a choice; they don't have to leave after one year. That statement is obviously true, but the top players do not have a choice when they want one: coming out of high school. At that point, their control in the matter is squished, as they are not allowed to enter the NBA draft even if they want to and are ready to. So why not actually give them the choice when they graduate from high school? Either enter the NBA or go to college with the intent on staying for a few years and learning. There's your choice.

But since you killed off old college basketball, I am glad you brought up the rule "changes." Changes is in quotes because the biggest alteration wasn't really a change to any rule, just an emphasis on enforcing an old rule correctly. No more hand checking or arm bars or two hands on an offensive player. No more slowing down offensive player movement and progress. No more wild running through the lane in basketball, the equivalent to running a gauntlet machine in football practice. This was obviously smart and necessary. It will increase scoring in two distinct ways: more free throws while guys get used to the whistles and better shots on offense since ball handlers can't get checked and held as much.

However, the NCAA did absolutely nothing to help that last two minutes business you mentioned. This is the real killer of all basketball games to be honest, pro included. And there is really no simple fix; anything would be drastic. You could get rid of some of the timeouts available, but that would change the entire coaching philosophy of final possession basketball. You could penalize intentional fouls more harshly, but this would almost completely remove the possibility of late-game comebacks. I think the only change that could even occur would just be a simple shortening of timeouts. Make them all 30 seconds, or even 20 seconds. Or allow a timeout to be used as an advance of the ball to mid-court, like in the NBA, but have there be no stoppage of time at all. These are just small nuanced switches that could be implemented. As sad as it sounds, I see no feasible move that could fix the problem without changing the sport.

I know people would be up in arms, but how would you feel about limiting (or eliminating) timeouts near the end of games? It would reduce a coach's usefulness almost to zero and force the players themselves to make calls and adjustments in the final seconds. It would make things more interesting I assume, but interesting can be both good and bad.


DAN:
I admire your D-League idea, but do we really follow players in baseball through the minors? Really? We keep track of the absolute top prospects when they are close to being called up, but we don't follow their performance, only the date in which they will make their major league debut. And how many minor league games are televised? If the idea is to showcase the rookies, we need to be able to watch them. And we need to care about the teams they play for. This is by no means impossible, just a larger mountain than I was prepared to climb.

On the flip side, I'm all for any rule change that can speed up the dreaded thirty minutes of thirty seconds of play at the end of games. If eliminating, or limiting, time outs accomplishes this, then hell yes! I honestly believe that for regular season college basketball to be interesting to the national public, something drastic must be done. March Madness has held its own, thanks to gambling, but its by no means safe. Change the damn sport. Without top level talent, year in and year out, its going to die anyways.




Monday, November 11, 2013

NCAA College Basketball: League of Children - Part one


NCAA College Basketball: League of Children - Part one
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (11-11-13)



TODD:
The college basketball season tipped off just a few days ago. Early season games are being played between ranked teams and November records seem to mean more than ever before. In fact, tomorrow #1 Kentucky faces #2 Michigan State and #4 Duke plays #5 Kansas. Not bad for the first week of the season.

But that is not the story for the start of the year. The story is related to this:

1. Andrew Wiggins
2. Julius Randle
3. Dante Exum
4. Jabari Parker
5. Marcus Smart
6. Joel Embiid
7. Aaron Gordon
8. Andrew Harrison
9. James Young
10. Dario Saric
11. Wayne Selden

Those are the projected top eleven picks in the 2014 NBA Draft according to ESPN draft expert Chad Ford. Nevermind the fact that six of them play for either Kansas or Kentucky. That isn't the story either. (...Well, it kind of is.) Of those eleven men, the BEST eleven pro prospects mind you, only one had played a single second of college basketball prior to this week, and that is Marcus Smart (who is a returning sophomore). The other 10 of 11 prospects are either freshmen or from overseas.

Let's let that sink in for a second.

Need more time?

We good? Okay.

So eight of the best eleven prospects in the world (according to ESPN's Chad Ford) are freshmen who had never played any collegiate basketball before. Two come from overseas and one lone man, who plays his basketball at Oklahoma State, is the only elite prospect with any kind of college experience. This is fascinating; it is unbelievable; it is uncanny and, to be honest, rather embarrassing.

Now I realize many have talked about the famed 2014 draft as possibly the best ever. People were looking ahead and realized this potential a year ago. Truth is, this might be the best that some of these guys ever look. It's possible at least a couple flame out as freshmen and their NBA stock drops a bit, or they return to school (HAHA, yeah right!). But taking this early mock draft at face value, the bottom line is this: the landscape of college basketball is kind of a joke.

Take a look again at those games being played on Tuesday. Kentucky is #1 in the country. Arguably their five best players are all freshmen. Kansas is #5, led by a couple freshmen, and even the Duke Blue Devils have a freshman as their best player. (Hell is freezing over, sell all your stock, buy that fancy car you've always wanted.) So not only are nearly all the top NBA guys freshmen, but many of the top teams are littered with players who will be leaving after just one season. This happens every year, but not like THIS.

Putting the specific 2013-2014 freshmen class aside, doesn't something need to change here for the product that is college basketball? Fix it my brother. Fix the sport.


DAN:
I need more time! Thinking.... thinking.... okay I concede. What's happened to college basketball?

Let me get my annoyed ranting out of the way first, because this NCAA season is both stupid and amazing. Personally, I find college basketball to be down right exciting, especially during tournament time. The holiday tournaments are usually top notch and competition for the top 25 is fierce. Yet the best eleven players are freshmen, unknowns, children with ridiculous amounts of talent and little game tape. I'm calling them children, not because of age, but because of their basketball experience. You need time with a top notch coach (collegiate level or higher) and a competition level rivaling your own to gain the intangibles needed for the NBA. Sure, you can compete and score, but you're still a kid until you've put a couple seasons under your belt.

So we now enter this NCAA basketball season full well knowing that Kansas and Kentucky are odds on favorites to be in the Final Four, if not the title game. Why? Because they own six of the top eleven players and everybody knows you only need one transcendent guy to run the table. They are all freshmen. Seriously! How did college basketball get itself in this position? What has cornered the sport into this inescapable situation? The NBA did this. Its popularity growth, especially overseas, has made college basketball inconsequential. Everyone wants to watch the best players, but they want to see them in a Knicks or Suns uniform (teams picked randomly, most people would probably not pick either of those teams). They want to see the best play the best, in the NBA, not the best clobber other inferior players until they run home crying. This is not actually a problem. Let that sink in.

The best thing about NCAA basketball has always been March Madness. That hasn't changed and knowing your team's best player will only compete in the tournament one time makes every game that much more special. Ultimately the one and done, with freshmen dominating the college game year after year, is great for the sport of basketball overall. It hurts the college game slightly, while boosting the NBA in incredible ways. I'm actually excited to see these eleven players play, knowing they will represent the top eleven in the NBA draft next year.

The NBA is becoming more synonymous with college basketball and vice versa. The college game is the proving ground, more so than ever before, with only a single season to show your worth. College sports is about the team name and logo on the front of the jersey, not on the back. So fans of a university will be excited no matter what. What drives a sport is the casual fan, the guys who want to watch for the top tier talent. And college basketball is going to have a ton of that this season. I say win, win.

I'm going out a limb here and saying you disagree. Yell at me some more and I'll give you your 'fix.'





Friday, March 8, 2013

Where has all the Madness Gone? - March Madness Part 2


Where has all the Madness Gone? - March Madness Part 2
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (3-8-13)

[Part One]



DAN:
Let's see how your Final Four stacks up against my own from January. I will say, I may have jumped the gun a bit on my picks, but there's no going back now! Here they are:

Todd's Final Four - Missouri, Michigan, Ohio State, Syracuse
Dan's Final Four - Duke, Texas, NC State, Syracuse

I have a feeling we both may have missed on Indiana. I also enjoyed listening to Colin Cowherd talk about how overrated the Big 10 is this year. They so are! He made a strong case for St. Louis and Gonzaga as dark horse picks as well, which I love. I'm sticking by my predictions though. Never bet against Duke.

I can't help but feel much of the drama is sucked out of the tournament this season though. Where is the hype? What happened to the anxiety surrounding bubble teams? This years tournament crop is being shunned by ESPN and the like. What gives?

I want so badly to love March Madness, but its getting harder and harder each year as hardly any of the best players from last year are still around to watch. I'm not knocking them for hitting up the NBA, but damn has it hurt the casual fan here. My Boston University Terriers (Go BU! BC Sucks!) barely sniff the tournament, let alone win anything and your Virginia Tech Hokies get their bubble burst annually it seems. Where do we go from here? I want to get excited about it again!


TODD:
I hate listening to Colin Cowherd because everything he says is simply for the sound bite. There's no logic or sense in his words. Really, the Big 10 is overrated? Michigan is undefeated against teams out of their conference this year. Indiana only has one loss to non-Big 10 schools. Illinois and Minnesota were flying high before their Big 10 schedule kicked in; they each have only one out-of-conference loss and are now getting beaten up by their Big 10 peers. This conference probably has seven of the top 30 schools in the country.

And he likes St. Louis and Gonzaga as dark horse teams?? St. Louis garnered 675 votes in the AP poll this week (reported by Sports Illustrated), meaning they are ranked as the 16th best team in the country, AKA a 5 seed in the NCAA Tournament. If they lost in the first round of the Big Dance, it would be an UPSET! And Gonzaga? Is he serious?? Gonzaga is number one in the nation right now! They are going to get a one seed if everything stays like it is. A ONE SEED!

For the uninitiated, i.e. people who listen to Colin Cowherd, a one seed is favored to make the Final Four. If they do not, someone upset them!

A dark horse team? Really, Colin? Nice picks. My sleeper is Florida; they're way down at 11th this week in the national rankings.

As for your concern about the drama being gone, it really has a lot to do with four-year players being non-existent but also that everyone on top keeps losing this season. The perennial powers are still playing very well (Indiana, Michigan State, the aforementioned Duke) but the elite school (singular) doesn't exist. There is no one for other teams to target on their schedule. No one is running away with the season. No school is separating themselves from the rest of the country to make a huge storyline. Everyone at the top is just kind of playing reasonably well, ho hum. The good thing is that this should make for a wide open and exciting March Madness.

Really the only way to get back to what you once had, where you can be excited about seeing certain players and knowing rosters around the country is to play a simple game: Get to know your Freshmen.

There are a ton of amazing freshmen this season: Marcus Smart, Ben McLemore, Shabazz Muhammad are just a couple that pop into my mind. The game has swung young, kind of like the NBA, since one is a cause of the other. Huge college basketball fans these days follow high school recruiting and Rivals rankings of incoming freshmen. Rather than perusing last year's All-Conference teams to find out who will be good for an upcoming season, it is time to thumb through lists of the best recruiting classes. That is where the game has gone.


DAN:
Colin Cowherd is tremendous and a great prognosticator. Perhaps his excellence at predicting games and outcomes is due in part to his sleepers actually being top teams to begin with, just ones we're talking about a bit less than the others. But his record stands and he is pretty awesome at making picks. Hold your tongue when St. Louis faces the Zags in the Sweet Sixteen. And what makes him great IS that he's polarizing, says what no one wants to hear, and yells at idiots for over played opinions. I could go all day.

Back to the game at hand. What you're saying is that college basketball is becoming more and more like college football. This is definitely a good thing for its overall success and popularity. Getting people interested in recruiting classes and high school standouts is a positive if it works. I'm calling BS. Football is leaps and bounds ahead of basketball in popularity and interest. The NFL draft is amazing to follow even if the show is lackluster. And this all trickles down into college and National Signing Day being a huge deal. I don't know any of those guys, but I now know which teams are on the up and up in the sport. The problem for college basketball starts with the NBA. The NBA draft stinks. It is god awful! Before it even starts you know basically who the top five picks are, and beyond that who cares. Its just a bunch of complimentary players or bench guys. Teams are smaller and its a star driven league. All the stars are in the top five, top ten max in the draft. If I don't care about the draft, then why do I care about college basketball or its equivalent to National Signing Day? I don't, and its hard to imagine a situation where I do care.

The NBA is putting on a great product right now and I think March Madness will be interesting. But as an outsider to the college game, I see no way I garner any interest in a tournament team outside of my Alma-mater. Yes, yes, I can play the simple game of getting to know my freshmen. But that's what the NCAA tournament use to be for. Now they want me to watch regular season college basketball. Not happening. Sorry.


TODD:
The last thing I'll say on Cowherd, because he deserves even less time than we're giving him right now, is that if St. Louis and Gonzaga do meet in the Sweet Sixteen, it won't even be that surprising! They are both top 20 teams! Maybe he just doesn't understand what "sleeper" means.

You're right about the NBA draft. But it seems to me that should help aid your frustrations, not exacerbate them. Only the top five or so guys matter because it is a star driven league, sure. But 80% of those top five guys might be freshmen this season. It is even more paramount that you follow signing day and recruiting classes in basketball because one guy can shift an entire team's fortunes. That usually is not the case in football. So by seeing who nabs the top recruits, you'll have a pretty good idea of what teams might make a leap into contention during the season, and also have an eye on who will go near the top of the NBA draft. The turnaround on that information in football takes two or three years wherein basketball it all happens in one season! This should make it all easier and more exciting to follow. You just have a mental block against college basketball. That's on you. Don't blame the game!

As for the Big Dance, its always exciting just because of the built-in drama. Whether you know any players involved or not, the games are heart-pounding and you learn about stars (both freshmen and small-school seniors) during the tournament games. I guess your real problem is around this time, early March, where the tournament hasn't begun yet but you know nothing about the national teams and cannot dutifully fill out your bracket with any semblance of first hand knowledge. Sucker! This, I am sorry to say, is again, on you. Good luck with your bracket though.  That was sarcasm, just to be clear.



Monday, March 4, 2013

The Madness of March is Here! Or is it? - Part One


The Madness of March is Here! Or is it? - Part One
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (3-4-13)



TODD:
This has been one of the most wild college basketball seasons in my adult life. Top five teams are getting bounced week after week; the rankings have almost become irrelevant or added encouragement for the underdog, depending on how you look at it.

No team is safe with multiple schools having already lost as the number one team in the nation. This would ordinarily spell trouble for fans trying to predict playoff advancement. If even the best teams are constantly falling, who can you rely on?

However, when it comes to March Madness, where upsets are routine and unpredictability is always predictable, this may be to our advantage. When is a better time to ride the top teams than when the public (i.e. stupid squares who lose lots of money all the time in anything they bet) is going to be going hard against them?

With all that being said, which type of Big Dance do you prefer: the upsets straight through, leaving everyone's bracket in shambles or seeing the "best" teams advance through to the Final Four?


DAN:
My favorite type of Big Dance is the one where my picks are right and I chose the champion correctly. That's only happened three times. I picked UConn, North Carolina and Duke correctly over the last decade. Go me! I know, all heavy favorites or top two seeds in the years they won. And if I'm being totally honest, I've chosen the champion correctly three times but definitely have NEVER gotten the majority of my picks correct. I've picked tons of upsets and I've picked next to none. No matter which way I go, I'm rarely over 50% and its because of exactly what you noted. Putting anything over fifty bucks on the tourney is nuts because you'll probably lose that money. Go play video poker instead. Vegas!

As for your question, I'd much rather see the top seeds advance. I like two number one's in the Final Four, a two or three and then one surprise team ranked six to eight. Balance. Then we get exciting games in the later rounds as well as some "Cinderella" drama and the reality that the rankings are not great and we're left with what we expected. Even three number one's in the Final Four is good, but anything less than two and you lost me a round or so ago. I know little to nothing about the Texas A&M's or Louisiana Lafayette's of the world and have no desire to actually watch them play basketball.

My entire March Madness experience hinges on the picks I've made. The upsets should stay in the first weekend and after that I'm all for chalk. It's hard for me, because the tournament has really lost its luster over the last five plus years. All the best college players are one and done to the NBA, so consequently I know no one. I use to know guys from the year before, watching them play in March Madness, but now anyone worth caring about leaves. It makes it tough to care, unless you enjoy following the sport during the regular season. I know you do, so I'm sure you have an opposing view. If not then just give me some picks! I made my Final Four selections back during the first week of January. What do you think now?


TODD:
Even though no one wants to admit it, I think most of America agrees with you. People care about their brackets and upsets in the first or second round. After that, they want the top seeds advancing. The television ratings back this up. The years when George Mason and VCU went way farther than anyone anticipated, the viewership was down for those games. Buzzer beaters are nice in the round of 32. But in the Elite Eight, Americans want the best competing.

As for my tournament outlook, I'm really high on the SEC this year and really low on the ACC. The SEC is pretty awful after their top three teams but I think both Florida and Missouri are awesome and Kentucky can still make waves. I could see either Florida or Mizzou making the Final Four, Missouri's current struggles not withstanding.

The ACC, on the other hand, has a number of top teams but I have little confidence in them. NC State and North Carolina have already shown their true colors; they simply are not as good as we anticipated coming into the year. The opposite can be said about Miami but I would not feel good about backing them for a long tournament run; nor Duke for that matter. Duke always scares me since they can lose to anyone if their shots are not falling.

Outside of those two conferences, the stories are all in the Big 10. As many as five different Big 10 schools are good enough to make the Final Four (Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State and Minnesota) and I wouldn't be surprised if two of the final four came from that conference.

But enough explaining myself. I know people only care about picks and when picks are wrong so here goes:

The Final Four will consist of Missouri, Michigan, Ohio State and Syracuse.