Final NFL Power Rankings: We were right - Part one

Final NFL Power Rankings: We were right - Part one
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (12-30-13)



The NFL season is over with the end reminding us of how things began. The Rankings may have changed all the way, but the top ten did not. Seesaw Sports has its Final NFL power rankings on Black Monday.

Recap: [1st Quarter Power Rankings]
Recap: [2nd Quarter Power Rankings]
Recap: [3rd Quarter Power Rankings]



Final Power Rankings:
[Numbers in parentheses equal difference in rank from Todd: i.e (+1) equals one spot higher]

TODD                                                     DAN
32. Washington Redskins                      Houston Texans (-1)
31. Houston Texans                               Washington Redskins (+1)
30. Oakland Raiders                              Jacksonville Jaguars (-1)
29. Jacksonville Jaguars                       Oakland Raiders (+1)
28. Atlanta Falcons                               Cleveland Browns (-1)
27. Cleveland Browns                           Atlanta Falcons (+1)
26. Buffalo Bills                                     Tennessee Titans (-3)
25. Minnesota Vikings                           Minnesota Vikings (0)
24. New York Giants                             Buffalo Bills (+2)
23. Tennessee Titans                            Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1)
22. Tampa Bay Buccaneers                  New York Giants (+2)
21. St. Louis Rams                                Detroit Lions (-2)
20. New York Jets                                 St. Louis Rams (+1)
19. Detroit Lions                                    Miami Dolphins (-5)
18. Pittsburgh Steelers                          Baltimore Ravens (-2)
17. Dallas Cowboys                              Pittsburgh Steelers (+1)
16. Baltimore Ravens                           New York Jets (+4)
15. San Diego Chargers                       San Diego Chargers (0)
14. Miami Dolphins                               Dallas Cowboys (+3)
13. Chicago Bears                                Chicago Bears (0)
12. Indianapolis Colts                           Indianapolis Colts (0)
11. Philadelphia Eagles                        Philadelphia Eagles (0)
10. Arizona Cardinals                           Green Bay Packers (-1)
9. Green Bay Packers                           Arizona Cardinals (+1)
8. New Orleans Saints                          New Orleans Saints (0)
7. Cincinnati Bengals                            Cincinnati Bengals (0)
6. New England Patriots                       San Francisco 49ers (-3)
5. Kansas City Chiefs                           Kansas City Chiefs (0)
4. Carolina Panthers                             New England Patriots (+2)
3. San Francisco 49ers                         Seattle Seahawks (-1)
2. Seattle Seahawks                             Carolina Panthers (+2)
1. Denver Broncos                                Denver Broncos (0)




Comments from the Rankings: 

TODD:
Obviously getting into the playoffs is a team's top priority. Thus, the best sixteen teams should be the sixteen playoff teams. However, I don't believe that is actually the case. The Arizona Cardinals had a fantastic year. They are certainly better than the sixth seed from the AFC, if not the sixth seed from their own conference.

Also, all divisions are not created equal. I will take the Kansas City Chiefs over all but three division winners in football. In regards to San Francisco, I like them even more. I say they are a top three team even though they didn't win their division.

As for tiers to finish out the season, the top six teams are slightly ahead of the rest of the league. From there, tier two contains teams seven through seventeen. These were all playoff or borderline playoff teams, but, other than Indianapolis, no one in this group felt comfortable in their playoff admission before the season's final game.

Tier three are teams who can pull an upset but don't bring their A game consistently. That would be everyone from Pittsburgh to Cleveland. The bottom five teams are a step below. It is hard to fathom that the Houston Texans would be able to lose fourteen consecutive ballgames. It is also slightly hilarious that I would take them over Washington right now if the two teams played each other.

And oh yeah, Washington doesn't have its own 2014 first round draft pick. Whoops.


DAN:
Its pretty incredible how close our rankings are to one another, and yet that's not the story here. I'm staring at two teams in the top five that didn't even sniff the postseason last year. The Chiefs and Panthers epitomized the NFL and hope for teams ranked twenty two or lower.

I love your tiers, with a BIG exception in Tier two. Also, my bottom tier has way more than five teams.

We have the exact same teams in our bottom eleven, Tier four in my opinion, with a slightly different order that couldn't matter any less. Those teams suck and we all know it.

Tier three needs to be teams ranked twenty one to sixteen. All average teams with a big win at some point this season, but the playoffs were a long shot and its obvious why. I'm fine with the Cowboys in this tier, but not at the expense of boosting the Dolphins to an unreasonable level.

Teams ranked fifteen up to seven are in Tier two, but you can NOT put Miami in this discussion. This tier is playoff teams and playoff caliber teams. The Cowboys, with Tony Romo, and the Bears are both playoff teams in the AFC. Same with Arizona, who got robbed this season. No one else belongs.

We agree completely on our top Tier one teams, ranked seven and above. However, you're crazy if you think the Patriots aren't better than San Francisco. I get it, I do, you see those gaudy NFC victories that San Fran put up in the final month and look to New England who barely squeaked by Houston and even lost to Miami. Don't be fooled, that team was hurting, but the team that stands today with a first round bye is top five in the league.

[Part two - How the NFL changed]

NFL 3rd Quarter: 12 weeks of Confusion - Part one

NFL 3rd Quarter: 12 weeks of Confusion - Part one

by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (11-25-13)

Twelve weeks of the NFL season have transpired, with lots of room for confusion. The top five and bottom five are evident, with a slop of mediocrity everywhere else. Its the perfect time for us at Seesaw Sports to update our power rankings. Both leagues have one playoff spot completely up for grabs, but does it even matter? Will that final team be this year's late season Cinderella, or will everyone's preseason picks play out come playoff time? With three quarters of the season complete, our NFL debate rages on.

Recap: [1st Quarter Power Rankings]

Recap: [2nd Quarter Power Rankings]

3rd Quarter Power Rankings:

[Numbers in parentheses equal difference in rank from Todd: i.e (+1) equals one spot higher]


TODD                                DAN

32. Houston                      Houston (0)               

31. Jacksonville                Jacksonville (0)                          

30. Atlanta                         Atlanta (0)             

29. Tampa Bay                  Minnesota (-2)                 

28. Washington                 Tampa Bay (+1)                

27. Minnesota                   Oakland (-3)                          

26. Cleveland                   Cleveland (0)                           

25. Buffalo                        Washington (+3)           

24. Oakland                      New York Giants (-1)                             

23. New York Giants         Buffalo (+2)                                          

22. New York Jets             New York Jets (0)

21. Miami                          Miami (0) 

20. St. Louis                      Tennessee (-1)

19. Tennessee                   Philadelphia (-6)

18. Chicago                       Pittsburgh (-2)

17. Baltimore                      Chicago (+1)

16. Pittsburgh                    Green Bay (-1)    

15. Green Bay                    Detroit (-4)

14. Indianapolis                  St. Louis (+6)         

13. Philadelphia                  Baltimore (+4) 

12. San Diego                     Cincinnati (-7)

11. Detroit                           Dallas (-2)

10. Arizona                         Indianapolis (+4)

9. Dallas                             San Diego (+3)

8. Kansas City                    San Francisco (-1)

7. San Francisco                 Arizona (+3)      

6. Carolina                          Carolina (0)

5. Cincinnati                        New Orleans (-3)

4. New England                   Kansas City (+4)    

3. Seattle                             Denver (-2)

2. New Orleans                   New England (+2)

1. Denver                            Seattle (+2)

Comments from the rankings:

TODD:
Somehow, as inexplicable as it is, the more games we get as evidence, the harder this list is to make.

Rather than the picture clearing up, it is becoming more muddled. Some teams have made giant leaps in my mind since the season's halfway mark. Others have plummeted just as far. Yet the most evident point here is the tiers that have developed. The top three teams are Tier A, the elites. Then teams four through 18 or 19 are in a large group together. How much really separates Cincinnati at five from Chicago at 18? In my mind, not much.

Tier C is everyone else through Tampa Bay. We have to give Atlanta, Jacksonville and Houston their own fourth tier though, for being just awful. The funny part is, how scary would the Texans or Falcons be next year if they end up with the first pick in the draft? That's the NFL for you!


DAN:
Things have certainly gotten more confusing, but I believe you are the one who is truly confused. Your tiers are headed in the right direction, but limiting the top to only three teams is stupid. To leave out New England from Tier A, who is getting better each week and just beat Denver, is crazy talk! Tier A is my top five teams. Putting Cincinnati ahead of the Chiefs is equally as ridiculous. But you'll notice I have them way down at twelve. They are barely better than Baltimore at this point.

I don't like putting Dallas at eleven, but I felt no potential division winner should be any lower. Although they are probably worse than the Bengals, Ravens and maybe even the Rams at this point.

If Tier A is my top five, then Tier B is slots six to nine. These two tiers are our playoff teams, our contenders and teams with a shot at making noise in the post season. After this its a wash. I like the four tier system, so Tier C is every team from ten to twenty six. There is not much separating the Browns from the Colts or Cowboys right now. And in Tier D we have our bottom four teams, which should be called Tier P for poop. They stink, are awful, and should be easy wins for any opponent. Right Green Bay? Minnesota and Tampa Bay are probably D+ or C- teams, but who cares. The fun is in my Tier B, which has a modest four teams as compared to your insane fifteen teams.

You can't honestly tell me that Carolina and New England are on par with Green Bay or the Eagles. No way! Unless Aaron Rodgers comes back, both those teams are finishing at 8-8 with the likes of the Jets and Rams (if they are lucky).

[Part two - Movers and Shakers]

 

NFL 2nd Quarter: The eight game Battle - Part one

NFL 2nd Quarter: The eight game Battle - Part one
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (10-28-13)

Eight games of the NFL season are in the books, the perfect time for us at Seesaw Sports to update our power rankings. Posers were exposed, studs fell off and the battle for NFL supremacy is anyone's to win. Yet the playoff picture has become crystal clear since our initial rankings in week four, so with half the season complete, how many teams are actually in the hunt?

Recap: [1st Quarter Power Rankings]

2nd Quarter Power Rankings:

[Numbers in parentheses equal difference in rank from Todd: i.e (+1) equals one spot higher]


TODD                                DAN

32. Jacksonville                 Jacksonville (0)               

31. Minnesota                    Tampa Bay (-1)                 

30. Tampa Bay                   Minnesota (+1)             

29. Philadelphia                 Philadelphia (0)             

28. St. Louis                       New York Giants (-6)      

27. Oakland                       St. Louis (+1)                  

26. Houston                       Oakland (+1)                    

25. New York Jets              Houston (+1)                  

24. Buffalo                          Buffalo (0)                       

23. Miami                           Atlanta (-2)                       

22. New York Giants          Cleveland (-2)

21. Atlanta                          Washington (-2)

20. Cleveland                     Pittsburgh (-2)

19. Washington                  Arizona (-4)

18. Pittsburgh                     Miami (+5)

17. Tennessee                    New York Jets (+8)

16. Chicago                        San Diego (-3)

15. Arizona                         Baltimore (-3)

14. Dallas                           Tennessee (+3)

13. San Diego                    Carolina (-2)

12. Baltimore                      Chicago (+4)

11. Carolina                        Dallas (+3)

10. New England                Detroit (-1)

9. Detroit                             Green Bay (-5)

8. Indianapolis                    Cincinnati (-1)

7. Cincinnati                       New England (+3)

6. Kansas City                    New Orleans (-4)

5. San Francisco                Kansas City (+1)

4. Green Bay                      Indianapolis (+4)

3. Seattle                            San Francisco (+2)

2. New Orleans                  Seattle (+1)

1. Denver                           Denver (0)

Comments from the rankings:

TODD:
We're halfway through the NFL season and a lot has changed in just four weeks. There are now three distinct groups in the rankings:

- The bottom, teams ranked 32-30, are clearly terrible. I wouldn't pick the Jaguars, Vikings, or Buccaneers to beat anyone else in the league under any circumstances. I know they won't all go winless but any wins they grab will be upsets.

- The top 10 is clearly established. I know the playoffs are 12 teams, so those final two spots are still up for grabs, but the top 10 teams seem set on making it. In related news, it took me a long while to decide who was the 11th best team in the NFL. I settled on Carolina, whose defense has been amazing all year, but now their offense is final clicking.

- The rest of the league, teams ranked 11-29, are pretty darn close, as funny as it sounds. There is certainly very little separating those teams at 29,28,27 from Tennessee or Pittsburgh at 18. We actually just saw this yesterday as Oakland toppled the Steelers.

 A couple extraneous thoughts, all seemingly related to quarterbacks:

- Poor LeSean McCoy; that Philly QB situation is a MESS.
- St. Louis would be higher if Bradford hadn't gone down; their ranking is not totally reflective of their performance thus far.
- The Giants are rolling!...with two of the worst wins I have ever seen in my lifetime; but they are two wins nonetheless and that division is still up for grabs.
- Chicago is in a similar boat to St. Louis; their ranking reflects the current Cutler injury, not how they've played this season
- If the New England Patriots had a quarterback who could throw an accurate pass, there's no telling how good they could be!

Even though Kansas City has the best record in the league, and the best defense according to the numbers, I still don't trust them against the other heavy hitters. I'd take the four big NFC teams over them and still like Denver a little more. Of course, if Seattle loses tonight...


DAN:
I don't see much having changed at all in the last four weeks, besides the masses really separating themselves. The bottom of the barrel sunk lower and the top ten just punched their playoff tickets a little more firmly. Otherwise, I see four groups here. That middle pack you lumped together is actually two groups now after eight weeks, teams with hope and teams that suck.

The four groups in my rankings:

- The bottom, which extends all the way to team number 28 and your New York Giants. The teams ranked 32 to 28 all stink, are having horrific seasons, and can't be trusted to win, period. I know you are dumping on St. Louis because they lost their QB, but that's not a bad team. They belong in our next group.

- The ones that suck, these are teams ranked 27 to 21. None of these teams are making the playoffs. Their seasons are over. You placed Miami and the Jets in this area of your rankings, but both those teams still have a shot and are way better, when they are playing well, than the likes of Cleveland, Washington and Atlanta who aren't breaking .500 this season.

- The ones with hope, these are teams ranked 20 to 12. All of these teams are in the hunt and are one winning streak or losing streak away from keeping hope alive or falling into the 'suck' category. Pittsburgh may have closed their door by losing to Oakland, but something tells me not to count out the Steelers just yet. Every other team has show flashes of greatness and I still like Chicago even with Cutler side lined for several weeks.

- The top, teams in the top ten of my rankings.  And yes I realize I skipped over the Cowboys at number 11. They seem to have a hold on the NFC East by default, being better than everyone else in that division, but still managing to suck on a level that doesn't befit a top ten team.

We must both be NFL geniuses, or this season is such an open book its ridiculous, because our top ten contains the exact same teams.  We do disagree on where four teams fall. I don't like Green Bay nearly as much as you. Same goes for New Orleans, who is simply out scoring people more than the league wants to admit.  I'm also much higher on Indianapolis and New England, two teams with stellar QB play that has held things together. I think the Colts can withstand the loss of Reggie Wayne, but I do worry the Patriots have lost one too many players on defense.

[Part two - Playoffs! In or out]

NFL 1st Quarter review, the Four game story - Part one

NFL 1st Quarter review, the Four game story - Part one
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (10-7-13)



After four games of the NFL season we at Seesaw Sports lay down our power rankings and go to town on the posers and the studs. Four games don't tell you everything, but after a quarter of the NFL season everyone knows who's in first and who's in last.



1st Quarter Power Rankings

[Numbers in parentheses equal difference in rank from Todd: i.e (+1) equals one spot higher] 


TODD                                DAN

32. Jacksonville                 Jacksonville (0)
31. Oakland                       Tampa Bay (-6)
30. New York Giants          Arizona (-7)
29. Pittsburgh                    New York Giants (+1)
28. Washington                 Oakland (+3)
27. Philadelphia                Washington (+1)
26. St. Louis                      Philadelphia (+1)
25. Tampa Bay                  St. Louis (+1)
24. Minnesota                   Carolina (-10)
23. Arizona                        Pittsburgh (+6)
22. New York Jets             San Diego (-2)
21. Buffalo Bills                 Buffalo Bills (0)
20. San Diego                   Minnesota (+4)
19. Miami                          New York Jets (+3)
18. Tennessee                  Tennessee (0)
17. Cleveland                    Houston (-1)
16. Houston                       Dallas (-6)
15. Cincinnati                    Cleveland (+2)
14. Carolina                       Baltimore (-2)
13. San Francisco             Atlanta (-4)
12. Baltimore                     Miami (+7)
11. Indianapolis                 Detroit (-6)
10. Dallas                          San Francisco (+3)
9. Atlanta                           Cincinnati (+6)
8. Kansas City                   Kansas City (0)
7. Chicago                         Chicago (0)
6. Green Bay                     Green Bay (0)
5. Detroit                            New England (-3)
4. Seattle                           New Orleans (-1)
3. New Orleans                  Indianapolis (+8)
2. New England                 Seattle (+2)
1. Denver                           Denver (0)


Comments from the rankings:

TODD:
- Oy, I was not expecting this from the Giants. Antrel Rolle thinks the G-Men can run the table and finish 12-4. I am...skeptical. This team cannot block anyone, can't run the ball, can't rush the passer. It's a perfect storm of suckitude. That being said, I still have confidence in Eli and that passing offense if he can get time.

- The Steelers are terrible on offense and cannot force a turnover on defense to save its life (or its season). Roethlisberger has no help and he is no Tom Brady.

- Two struggling teams, Washington and Philadelphia, with offensive issues for very different reasons. I trust Philly on offense a bit more even though I trust their defense a bit less.

- Neither the Bills nor Jets trusts their quarterback fully. I think that Buffalo likes EJ Manuel a tad bit more than New York likes Geno Smith.

- Sorry, I'm not a believer in Miami just yet. Call me old fashioned, but I am patient with my opinions. I like San Diego's offense and Miami's defense. If they could combine those two units, that squad would be in the top 10 easy.

- Tough news for Tennessee on Jake Locker. This team is going to tumble.

- There is something off with the 49ers. Kaepernick is getting no room to run around and Frank Gore got old too fast. The lack of receiving weapons is also blatantly obvious.

- We can't be fooled by that point differential for the Colts. Look who they have played so far.

- For Atlanta, 1-3 is 1-3. You can't take those games back. But this team is still supremely talented and needs a healthy Roddy White to prove it.

- I am all in on the NFC North with Detroit, Chicago and Green Bay. These guys are awesome. I wouldn't be surprised if all three make the playoffs and we have a preseason juggernaut like the Falcons or 49ers going home.

- Defense used to win championships. Nowadays though, I'd rather have the potent offense of the Saints to the potent defense of the Seahawks.


DAN:
- I’m not nearly as high on Tampa Bay as you are. They were a mess in week one against the Jets and have been accumulating more junk ever since. The quarterback change was the end in my book.

- I don’t like the Cardinals either. Very weak.

- Similar to Tampa, I think Carolina has no idea how to win a game. I watched them blow it against Buffalo, a game they had no business losing. The announcer made a comment with four minutes to go and Carolina leading; he said now is when the Panthers find a way to lose. He was right.

- Something about the Steelers tells me they are not nearly as bad as they look. I see them as an 8-8 team when the season comes to a close.

- The opposite is true of the Cowboys. They will probably win their division, but not for lack of trying to lose it. I don’t trust them.

- Guess I like the Dolphins a lot more than you here. They managed to find swagger over the summer. I like what they are doing and each week they are moving closer to the AFC East crown as New England falls apart. As a Jets fan I hate this. Boo Dolphins.

- Much much higher on the Bengals and the Colts than you. We will get into this on Friday, but from everything I’ve seen this season, it’s the AFC with the strong teams and the NFC with only a top five and a bunch of jokes. The Colts and Bengals can beat anyone if they show up on time.

[Part two - AFC vs NFC dominance]