by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (5-6-13)
DAN:
The first month of the baseball season is notoriously poor at being an indicator for the rest of the season, but May on the other hand is not. I think you know where this is headed... April flubs and shaky studs!
We've had some surprise success and failure this past month, but in my opinion none has been more surprising than the Dodgers and Angels who find themselves five and half and nine games out of the division lead respectively. On paper they are chock full of studs, but neither has really started clicking yet. They had some injuries, sure, but so have our Yankees and they are looking mighty fine. My spider sense tells me that only one of the two will be a contender after a month of futility. Who do you got?
Give me your flubs and shaky studs for April and perchance reflect on the the ramifications or utter uselessness of trying to look at April as a barometer for the MLB season.
TODD:
April is notoriously pointless. There is no way around this. From the beginning of the season, I thought the Dodgers were being overvalued. They have a ton of holes. The Angels, on the other hand, I was pretty sure would be good. With just that simple judgement and knowing April is pointless, I would have to go with the Angels being the LA playoff team if I was picking one.
If people need proof of April being utterly irrelevant, here are the following stats, which are completely true; everything listed below was 100% accurate as of the final day of the month of April.
- The Oakland A's and the Colorado Rockies scored the most runs in the AL and NL respectively.
- Pittsburgh was in first place in the NL Central even though their run differential is way worse than both St. Louis and Cincinnati.
- Toronto was in last place in the AL East and the aforementioned Angels can claim only one more win than Houston.
- The Rockies had the most April wins in the entire National League. Let that one sink in for a minute.
If league standings and team results being bogus isn't enough for you, I have April player stats as well!
- John Buck was on pace for 54 home runs and 150 RBI. Seriously, John Buck.
- The following players had an OPS over 1.000: Dexter Fowler, Carlos Gomez, Wilin Rosario.
- Jake Westbrook leads all starters in ERA with a mark of 0.98.
- Clay Bucholz and Jon Lester combined to go 9-0 after going 20-22 last year.
- Jason Grilli, the Pirates' closer, leads the league in saves and is a perfect 10 for 10 in chances.
Oh, you say those statistics are too basic and are prone to dramatic ups and downs? Well, let's use some WAR (wins above replacement) numbers then. Now WAR is not perfect, we all know, but as an overarching stat, it is pretty damn good. Here are some April WAR numbers to take with a huge, gigantic grain of salt:
- Matt Wieters has a lower WAR than the following catchers: Yan Gomes, Michael McKenry, Welington Castillo and yes, I have never heard of at least two of those three men.
- Adam LaRoche, Paul Konerko and Allen Craig have been so bad (accumulating negative WAR scores), their teams would have technically been better off if they hadn't even played. Same goes for Adrian Beltre and Asdrubal Cabrera.
- Of qualifying players, Rickie Weeks and Maicer Izturis were the two worst second basemen in all of baseball in the month of April.
- David Freese ranked 52 out of 56 qualifying third basemen in WAR. Josh Donaldson ranked 5th.
- Kevin Correia is tied for the 7th best pitcher in baseball with a WAR of 1.5.
- Matt Cain is tied for the 7th worst mark with a WAR of -0.8.
So here we are, finally in the month of May. What is real and what is not from April baseball? Well, to summarize, everything from April is a joke and nothing is real. Whoever is in first place on April 30 probably won't be on August 30. Be patient; this is baseball after all.
DAN:
A week ago I would have agreed with you, putting the Angels in the playoffs over the Dodgers. Now, with one full month in the books, I'm taking the Dodgers. Two reasons for my support of the boys in blue and not our friends down in Anaheim. First, the Dodgers are five and half games back which is very doable at this point in the year. They've played poorly, but should get a big lift when their pitching arms return to the rotation. Also, this is the first full season that their batting lineup has played together, so some growing pains can be expected. I like their chances against the other NL West teams who are not scaring anyone.
The Angels on the other hand are nine games back. This makes it highly unlikely they will win the division, but does not put the wildcard out of the question. Yet Albert Pujols is going on the DL probably sooner than later. He's injured and can only gut through it for so long. Add to that the loss of their pitching ace and you have a team in a deep, deep hole.
The second reason I'm on board with the Dodgers is the competition they'll face. Like I said, no one in the NL West scares me and I give the Dodgers a real shot to capture the division crown. The Giants may hold on tight, but the Dodgers can capitalize on wins against the remaining division foes to secure a wildcard berth. The Angels, unfortunately, have their work cut of for them. Texas will win the division and the A's are no pushovers either. They played the Yankees really hard over the weekend and proved you can't overlook them. So the Angels need a wildcard spot, and they won't get one. The AL is too good once again.
Now to the crazy, yet real, stats you through out there. I'm going to tell you if any of them will still be true at the All Star break.
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