LeBron James: A new Castle for the King - Part two

LeBron James: A new Castle for the King - Part two
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (6-14-13)

[Part one - King of Kings]



TODD:
LeBron James is exercising his opt out clause next summer and moving his castle out of Miami. The King will be returning home and the new and improved Big Three will now be in Cleveland. LeBron returns to Ohio to make amends and team with Kyrie Irving and Anderson Varejao. Long live the King.

The great part is, this threesome actually fits together stylistically better than the Big Three in Miami ever have. Of course Irving needs to improve his defense and Varejao needs to stay healthy and playing at last season's high level, but these guys have loads of talent. I repeat, LOADS. I did not include the Cavaliers on my list of teams that LeBron would have brought to the NBA Finals because in that hypothetical scenario he would have been replacing Kyrie Irving. However, if he opts out of his contract and decides to join the Cavs of his own volition, then watch out! Teamed with the ever improving duo of Dion Waiters and Tristan Thompson, this squad would be a force to rival anyone in the entire Eastern Conference from day one.

The only other location that LeBron would choose to move to is Los Angeles. People have been speculating he might opt out to join the Lakers, if he spurns Cleveland yet again. Those are the three most logical/likely choices (staying in Miami, signing with the Cavs, signing with the Lake Show). But would joining LA be better? I think the Cleveland team would be a better option personally, and as a basketball fan I want to see this happen. If you assume the Lakers' Big Three would become LeBron, Kobe Bryant (eventually, once he's healthy) and either Dwight Howard or Pau Gasol, is that better than what Cleveland would have? I'm not so sure. It certainly isn't as fun to root for.


DAN:
Did you suddenly become a Cleveland fan? Having LeBron return 'home' to rejoin the Cavaliers is what happens in movies, but rarely plays out in real life sports until the final year or two of a players contract. LeBron is not signing with Cleveland in the summer of 2014. Maybe for the final year or two of his career, so that puts us in the summer of 2020 then. He isn't joining the Lakers either. A Big Three of James, Kobe and Gasol (I'm assuming Howard is long gone - hated playing with Kobe) is amazing on paper, but who knows when Kobe will be back at 100 percent. Kobe's like a meaner, more controlling version of Dwyane Wade (both injured) and Gasol is a more consistent version of Chris Bosh with better defense. That's a crappy situation to spurn Miami for, even if it is Los Angeles. Let me make things simple. LeBron is not going to LA or returning to Cleveland for one reason and one reason only, his legacy.

I get the impression LeBron is a big picture guy. He joined the Miami Heat in order to win a string of championships and cement himself as the greatest of all time, at least that was the idea. And NBA legacies have been forged with strings of titles on one team, with the same coach, not spread across two or three different ones. Yes, yes, he's the face of a new generation that values the team less, but he isn't blind. Doing it all in one place is preferable.

The Heat have made the NBA Finals in every season LeBron's been there, and even if they lose this year, he's got one more season in South Beach for sure. Pat Riley is a basketball genius and the coach down there isn't half bad either. LeBron will approach his opt out clause with four straight NBA Finals appearances and either two or three rings (my prediction - barely a stretch). He isn't messing with that and neither is Pat Riley. This year's Miami team is old, but its not a permanent mess. Both Wade and Bosh can also opt out after next season, but don't expect things to make it that far. I predict Bosh gets shipped out of town this summer for youth and Riley gives Wade one more season to be healthy before he's traded too.

We've seen old teams suddenly get young from one season to the next and LeBron isn't about to break up the dynasty he has forming with Eric Spoelstra and Miami. DYNASTY. I realize the team has fallen apart around him this season, but that's what trades are for. The Heat might have limited financial wiggle room and be approaching an outrageous luxury tax, but what's more important? Winning multiple rings in a row, or winning three out of five rings or whatever it may be, or not paying a luxury tax? I think the Heat eat the tax and rake in the extra money from having the greatest NBA Franchise of the new decade. Imagine if LeBron actually gets the five or six rings he called for when joining the Miami Heat. Now that's a legacy.

[If you missed Part one - King of Kings]

MLB one month Over Reaction - Part one

MLB one month Over Reaction - Part one
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (5-6-13)



DAN:
The first month of the baseball season is notoriously poor at being an indicator for the rest of the season, but May on the other hand is not. I think you know where this is headed... April flubs and shaky studs!

We've had some surprise success and failure this past month, but in my opinion none has been more surprising than the Dodgers and Angels who find themselves five and half and nine games out of the division lead respectively. On paper they are chock full of studs, but neither has really started clicking yet. They had some injuries, sure, but so have our Yankees and they are looking mighty fine. My spider sense tells me that only one of the two will be a contender after a month of futility. Who do you got?

Give me your flubs and shaky studs for April and perchance reflect on the the ramifications or utter uselessness of trying to look at April as a barometer for the MLB season.


TODD:
April is notoriously pointless. There is no way around this. From the beginning of the season, I thought the Dodgers were being overvalued. They have a ton of holes. The Angels, on the other hand, I was pretty sure would be good. With just that simple judgement and knowing April is pointless, I would have to go with the Angels being the LA playoff team if I was picking one.

If people need proof of April being utterly irrelevant, here are the following stats, which are completely true; everything listed below was 100% accurate as of the final day of the month of April.

- The Oakland A's and the Colorado Rockies scored the most runs in the AL and NL respectively.

- Pittsburgh was in first place in the NL Central even though their run differential is way worse than both St. Louis and Cincinnati.

- Toronto was in last place in the AL East and the aforementioned Angels can claim only one more win than Houston.

- The Rockies had the most April wins in the entire National League. Let that one sink in for a minute.


If league standings and team results being bogus isn't enough for you, I have April player stats as well!

- John Buck was on pace for 54 home runs and 150 RBI. Seriously, John Buck.

- The following players had an OPS over 1.000: Dexter Fowler, Carlos Gomez, Wilin Rosario.

- Jake Westbrook leads all starters in ERA with a mark of 0.98.

- Clay Bucholz and Jon Lester combined to go 9-0 after going 20-22 last year.

- Jason Grilli, the Pirates' closer, leads the league in saves and is a perfect 10 for 10 in chances.


Oh, you say those statistics are too basic and are prone to dramatic ups and downs? Well, let's use some WAR (wins above replacement) numbers then. Now WAR is not perfect, we all know, but as an overarching stat, it is pretty damn good. Here are some April WAR numbers to take with a huge, gigantic grain of salt:

- Matt Wieters has a lower WAR than the following catchers: Yan Gomes, Michael McKenry, Welington Castillo and yes, I have never heard of at least two of those three men.

- Adam LaRoche, Paul Konerko and Allen Craig have been so bad (accumulating negative WAR scores), their teams would have technically been better off if they hadn't even played. Same goes for Adrian Beltre and Asdrubal Cabrera.

- Of qualifying players, Rickie Weeks and Maicer Izturis were the two worst second basemen in all of baseball in the month of April.

- David Freese ranked 52 out of 56 qualifying third basemen in WAR. Josh Donaldson ranked 5th.

- Kevin Correia is tied for the 7th best pitcher in baseball with a WAR of 1.5.

- Matt Cain is tied for the 7th worst mark with a WAR of -0.8.


So here we are, finally in the month of May. What is real and what is not from April baseball? Well, to summarize, everything from April is a joke and nothing is real. Whoever is in first place on April 30 probably won't be on August 30. Be patient; this is baseball after all.


DAN:
A week ago I would have agreed with you, putting the Angels in the playoffs over the Dodgers. Now, with one full month in the books, I'm taking the Dodgers. Two reasons for my support of the boys in blue and not our friends down in Anaheim. First, the Dodgers are five and half games back which is very doable at this point in the year. They've played poorly, but should get a big lift when their pitching arms return to the rotation. Also, this is the first full season that their batting lineup has played together, so some growing pains can be expected. I like their chances against the other NL West teams who are not scaring anyone.

The Angels on the other hand are nine games back. This makes it highly unlikely they will win the division, but does not put the wildcard out of the question. Yet Albert Pujols is going on the DL probably sooner than later. He's injured and can only gut through it for so long. Add to that the loss of their pitching ace and you have a team in a deep, deep hole.

The second reason I'm on board with the Dodgers is the competition they'll face. Like I said, no one in the NL West scares me and I give the Dodgers a real shot to capture the division crown. The Giants may hold on tight, but the Dodgers can capitalize on wins against the remaining division foes to secure a wildcard berth. The Angels, unfortunately, have their work cut of for them. Texas will win the division and the A's are no pushovers either. They played the Yankees really hard over the weekend and proved you can't overlook them. So the Angels need a wildcard spot, and they won't get one. The AL is too good once again.

Now to the crazy, yet real, stats you through out there. I'm going to tell you if any of them will still be true at the All Star break.

[Part two - MLB April stats mean NOTHING]

Playoffs!? Lakers and Celtics - In or Out

Playoffs!? Lakers and Celtics - In or Out

by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (2-8-13)

[Part One from Monday]

TODD:

Treading in the middle of the league every year does nothing for you, so bottoming out seems logical for Boston. However, the only way this is accomplished is by dismantling the roster further, i.e. trading Paul Pierce. I'm sorry but he will not be retiring as a Celtic if Boston wants any chance at a top pick this summer.

If trading Pierce is the only way to actually, legitimately bottom out and give yourself a chance at a top five pick, do you do it? Do you want the Celtics to trade the beloved Pierce for a young player or a first round pick (or both)? Or, would you rather Boston finish eighth or ninth in the east? Pretend you're Danny Ainge for a second here and actually make a decision that has some weight to it. "Sucking so bad" doesn't just happen on its own; people must be sacrificed.

DAN:

Damn it, I'll put on my executive hat and pretend I'm Danny Ainge. Its so much more fun to be the fan and want the best of both worlds. As Ainge I most certainly trade Kevin Garnett or Paul Pierce. Both if I can. Its time to stock up on draft picks and raise the likely hood of ping pong balls before the season is a total loss and the team is stuck with the eighth seed in the east. Making the playoffs is probably the worst case scenario for the Celtics right now. Their old guys just get older with extra minutes, games, travel, etc. And we all know they aren't good enough to beat Miami.

The problem is, who would want either player? If I'm Ainge I blow the team up, but my only viable trade asset is now getting reconstructive knee surgery. His predicament is approaching NY Jets territory. Its not like Pierce or Garnett puts anyone over the top, except MAYBE the Knicks but they already have Jason Kidd. There is one fail safe here. General Manager David Kahn of the Minnesota Timberwolves. I rest my case.

It's funny how the exact opposite is true of the Los Angeles Lakers. They HAVE to make the playoffs at all costs and the worst possible situation for them is to miss out on that coveted eighth seed in the west. I see them making a very sloppy move at the trade deadline to upgrade in the hopes of 'salvaging' their season. Not that they can win anything either, but with the Clippers playing out of their minds the Lakers have to keep pace. Now you're GM Mitch Kupchak What do you do?

TODD:

Boston is infinitely more interesting here, but I'll be Kupchak in a minute. First though, I believe Kevin Garnett has a full no-trade clause, so moving him might prove difficult. There are certainly teams in the league who are one piece away and that piece is either a very good defensive and jump-shooting power forward or a solid, shot-creating, scoring small forward. Pierce and Garnett both have value left; it's just a matter of getting a young piece of value back to make it worth it to Boston. Watch as the phones start ringing.

As GM of the Lake Show, we have to make the playoffs, win at all costs. That may mean making a rather impulsive roster upheaval. However, the difference exists in June between these two teams. If the Lakers sneak in as the eighth seed in the west, they can win rounds in the playoffs. In most match-ups, they will have four of the best six players on the court. Assuming Nash and Howard and Gasol get healthy heading into the final weeks of the season, a Lakers squad come June would be a scary opponent to face. The problem is getting there.

If I am Mitch Kupchak, I trade Pau Gasol. I realize he is now injured, but that just makes letting him go even easier. They are not using him correctly anyways. He is a center and one of the best low-post scorers in the world. He eviscerated the American team in the Olympics playing for Spain. LA is not using him in that spot or allowing him to play to his strengths on offense. He is no 18-foot jump shooter and I am not sure why Lakers brass thinks he is.

If they could get an athletic power forward or some outside shooting for Pau, I think they do it. To make this even more likely, Gasol still has value to other teams in the league who realize he is a center playing as a stretch forward. He will be itching to start fresh, coming off his rehab on a new team. With the Lakers selling low, they should still be able to gain a worthy piece in return for the Spaniard. Whether it would be enough to overcome their dreadfully slow start remains to be seen.

DAN:

I agree that Pau is the Lakers best trade asset, but they would be CRAZY to trade him. With Pau now injured and Howard somewhat injured, they are in a tough spot. But in the games they've won over the last week its been Pau who led the team in scoring and rebounding. They need him whenever he returns. More important than this, I think its only 50/50 whether Dwight Howard signs with the team after the year. Pau is the better player, teammate and asset for the Lakers at this point. Unfortunately I think Dwight Howard is untradable. They are stuck with what they got.

I'm leaning towards the side of panic with the Lakers. My prediction, they seemingly figure things out but fail to make the playoffs. Cause meet effect. The team gets blown apart this summer.

[If you missed Part One from Monday]

Who dies first? Celtics or Lakers

Who dies first? Celtics or Lakers

by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (2-4-13)

TODD:
The NBA has been flipped on its head this season. We all thought the strike-shortened year of 2011-2012 would be weird but this is something completely different.

In a sport where the best (nearly) always climbs to the top and the lengthy playoff rounds (almost) always guarantee the best teams advance, we are witnessing something special this season. The two most successful franchises in NBA history, the Boston Celtics and the Los Angeles Lakers, are both floundering. Both are bordering on the lottery with Boston currently sitting one game over .500 and the Lakers four below the .500 mark.

To make matters worse, Rajon Rondo tore his ACL, making him out for the rest of the season. And, on the other side of the country, it seems as though LA is actually considering trading one of their All-Star centers. What should happen here?

Pick a team and go. Should things be blown up, do they bottom out to try to get the best lottery pick possible? Is it worth scrounging together replacements (in Rondo's case) to go for that 7th or 8th playoff spot? Is the NBA (ratings-wise) in big trouble if neither of these teams make the playoffs or would the triumphant return of playoffs in New York help cover this?


DAN:
Asking to pick between the Celtics and Lakers isn't really fair; there's only one sane selection. As for the big picture, the NBA would be in trouble ratings-wise if it were any other point in its history, but there are SO many superstars in the league now. The Celtics and Lakers grab casual fans for sure, but last year's playoffs introduced the country to the OKC Thunder and crowned Miami. Those are the teams to watch. Throw in the Knicks and the Clippers and we have the two largest basketball markets with two excellent teams. If the Celtics OR the Lakers miss the playoffs the NBA is fine, but if both don't make it then there will be a ratings hit to the first round only. Neither team is getting any farther.

Now for my pick, which is obviously the Celtics. I adopted them as my basketball team way back when, living in Boston during college. Moving to Los Angeles solidified my disdain for their arch rival, the Lakers. Sure its fun out here when the Lakers are winning, but its vastly more fun when the Clippers are winning and the Lakers are losing. I'm proud to say I root for the Clippers too, so boo Lakers and yay Celtics. Here in the real world though, the Celtics suck. They were a floundering team who barely managed to show up on a nightly basis unless it was a nationally televised game. And this was BEFORE Rondo got hurt.

The Celtics have been playing a game of politics for a year or so now. They didn't want to alienate their fans by trading the "Big Three" who won them a title and yet they needed somebody to go. Ray Allen left last off season and no rebuilding happened, mainly because both Garnett and Pierce are still on the team. With Rondo going down they can officially throw in the towel on the season. They may have wanted to shoot for the lottery before, but now they have a legit excuse to be a worse team without being accused of tanking. Don't replace Rondo. Here's my ideal scenario. Pierce and Garnett both retire after the season with the Celtics sucking so bad they get a ton of balls in the lottery. High draft picks abound and with Rondo rehabilitated to a new-look Celtics team, they come back with a fury next year.

This season was over a month ago for the Celtics. Now they can put a bow on it.


TODD:
One major flaw exists with your ideal scenario. Out of Charlotte, Washington, Cleveland, Orlando, Phoenix, New Orleans, Sacramento or Minnesota, who is Boston worse than even without Rondo? There is no possible way the Celtics end up with ping pong balls for anything higher than the ninth best chance at the top pick.

Hell, they might even stay in the playoffs without Rondo. With the return of Avery Bradley and the guard play of Jason Terry and Courtney Lee sure to improve with more minutes coming their way, the Celtics still may have the seventh best team in the eastern conference. This, of course, doesn't mean any playoff advancement is in their future and, as all NBA fans know, you want to be at the top or at the bottom. Treading in the middle of the league every year does nothing for you.

[Part Two]