by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (5-10-13)
[Part one - MLB one month Over Reaction]
DAN:
As to the crazy yet real stats you through out there, I'm going to tell you if any of them will still be true at the All Star break and season's end. This should be fun!
- The Oakland A's and the Colorado Rockies scored the most runs in the AL and NL respectively
This is an obvious NO for both teams.
- Pittsburgh was in first place in the NL Central
I like them as a wildcard team, but not as division champs.
-Toronto was in last place in the AL East
I'm really surprised they aren't at least a .500 ball club, but last place seems right to me.
- The Rockies had the most April wins in the entire National League
Did you make this one up? I can't see this lasting even to Memorial Day.
- John Buck was on pace for 54 home runs and 150 RBI
I almost went to add him to my fantasy team, but then I realized it was John Buck.
- The following players had an OPS over 1.000: Dexter Fowler, Carlos Gomez, Wilin Rosario
This just means they aren't playing much, right? I should probably drop Rosario now from my fantasy roster..... Yeah no way, he's a stud.
- Jake Westbrook leads all starters in ERA with a mark of 0.98
Who? Is he available?
- Clay Bucholz and Jon Lester combined to go 9-0 after going 20-22 last year
No wonder the Red Sox are in first place. Not going to continue.
- Jason Grilli, the Pirates' closer, leads the league in saves and is a perfect 10 for 10 in chances
Who? Is he available? I now want him badly on my team.
TODD:
It seems counterproductive for you to react to ANY of the stats I listed for the month of April. Didn't I explain pretty clearly how things that happen in April are pointless? Hah. None of those things will continue; some have already begun to swing around in just a week and a half of May!
The dirty, little secret about baseball statistics though is that you can pick a sample size of thirty days from pretty much any point in the season and create a list that long or longer about idiotic things that make no sense. It is the problem with a small sample size. There is not enough time for a true outcome to be unearthed. Too much is based on luck in that short a time frame. The reason April stands out as "the pointless month" is because stats are easier to read starting from zero. That is really the only reason. It is harder to find someone's terrible July compared to the rest of the league because you have to sift through their stats prior to the beginning of July, or even make a point of keeping track before the trend even develops. April is way easier.
With that said, I love statistics. You can twist them and contort them to make any point your heart desires. Sports writers are really just cutting through all the numbers out there and cherry-picking ones that prove what they want to say. If someone is down on the Angels, they may bring up how many games back they are or how many games below .500 they are or how they only have an 9.1% chance of making the playoffs (according to ESPN's playoff odds).
But someone could just as easily bring up how they've only played one home series so far against a team who didn't make the playoffs last year, which was April 12-14 against Houston, and they won 2 out of 3 there. They are currently playing without their ace pitcher, without their closer and without their starting center fielder who was batting .313 when he went down and had one of the better Aprils of anyone on the roster. Also...hmm, well everything else with this team is bad. Josh Hamilton is so bad he's been below replacement-level for over thirty games now. So okay, statistics can't be manipulated to prove ANYTHING but the fact remains.
Let's tweak the question though. From this day forward, Anaheim wins more games than the Dodgers.
DAN:
Tweaking the question just makes it so your answer can be right, while the REAL question is what the fans really care about. Playoffs baby, playoffs. The Dodgers are in. The Angels are out.
As for stats, I enjoy the numbers behind the game of baseball, but could ultimately care less about my team's percent chance of making the playoffs at this point in the season. I don't care about their ERA or their OBP either. There are only two stats that matter to me as a baseball fan. Team wins and team batting average with runners in scoring position (RISP). Two stats, no more, no less.
I love following my team's wins because you can get a real feel for the energy and swagger of your ball club. Especially looking back at April, is your team clicking, starting to gel as a group, or are they much maligned like the aforementioned Dodgers and Angels. Even if your team is teetering at .500 you can be happy about a three or four game win streak. It shows the team has a chance to make a splash this season. Of course, the opposite is even more true. Any sort of long losing streak at this point in the year is rather damning. Lose two or three and you're like everyone else. But ratchet up a few six or seven game losing streaks and its a hole that only one or two teams in history have climbed out of by September.
April wins and loses have minimal importance as long as you aren't nine games back like the Angels. They can definitely recover, but they'll never be a great team this season. That we know for a fact after one month. As for the rest of the league, five games up or down in your division is neither a mountain or a mole hill. Its just a month sample size like you mentioned. Let's talk again on July 1st.
My other favorite stat is team batting average with RISP. As Yankees fans our team usually hits a lot of home runs, but I can always tell if our team is up for a deep postseason run based on that stat. Take last season for example, the Yankees stunk with RISP. They couldn't hit anyone home unless it was with a long ball. In the postseason, when power numbers drop and small ball gains importance, I knew this stat would haunt them. The team did not get the simple hits when it mattered, with runners on base, and you can't win a championship like that. Rarely can a team power hit their way past a lousy average with RISP. I'm keeping a close eye on this stat as we approach June. Things do look up this season for the Yankees, who added a lot of productive players to the lineup, guys who get the hit and get the man home to score. This season is nothing like last season and I'm loving it!
