NFL 2nd Quarter: Playoffs! In or Out - Part two

NFL 2nd Quarter: Playoffs! In or Out - Part two
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (11-1-13)

[Part one - The 8 game story (Power Rankings)]



TODD:
After that Seattle performance on Monday night, I would certainly consider moving the Seahawks below those AFC squads you mentioned. Their offense looked pitiful and relying on the return of Percy Harvin to change that seems shortsighted. However, I would also bump St. Louis up a few spots. Their defensive line is terrifying, like Super Bowl New York Giants level terrifying. It is sad that Bradford is gone; I would have liked to see how good this team could have been.

Perhaps we will touch on this more in our injury discussion next week, but with Bradford, Cutler, and even the Brian Hoyer injury changing the entire ceiling of a team, it is disappointing that so much depends on the health of just one man. Now I more clearly understand why announcers always freak out at quarterbacks when they don't slide correctly or don't scamper out of bounds. I guess you could throw Buffalo and Tennessee in that group as well.

But as for our second half NFL outlook, as you mentioned, the top seems set. We both like Denver, KC, New England, Indy and Cincinnati in the AFC with little competition for those five spots. The NFC, in my mind, is also just as set for the top five with New Orleans, Seattle, San Fran, Green Bay and Detroit. With the Jay Cutler injury and the guys going down on that Chicago defense, they are out and I believe the only NFC playoff spot still up for grabs is the NFC East division winner. Obviously Dallas has the head start there, but I am not willing to rule out Washington or even the Giants quite yet.

You have Green Bay, Carolina, Chicago, Detroit and Dallas all lumped together. Who do you have making the playoffs out of those? Obviously you feel stronger about Dallas taking the East, so where are your NFC wild cards? I like Carolina even more than you but to me, they are just the odd team out this season.

And who gets that last spot in the AFC? It is pretty wide open. You like the AFC East teams A LOT more than I do. Did you not watch any games this past Sunday? Specifically the Jets and Bills games? They were bloodbaths. Last weekend soured me to that whole division, even New England being an elite playoff squad. I don't know how you can claim the Jets or Dolphins would beat the Redskins or Falcons or even Browns when everyone is playing well. You're backing horses on the decline. The Wild Card front runners have to be either San Diego, Baltimore or Tennessee at this point.


DAN:
It certainly is pretty glaring this season, how a single injury can derail a team. But this is nothing new. Its why the NFL mantra over the past five plus years has been to make it to Thanksgiving above .500 and get lucky down the stretch. This plays a huge factor into my power rankings. The teams that have already found their bad luck won't be competing much come weeks 15 to 17.

We agree that only one AFC playoff spot is readily available. I'm still not sold completely on the Bengals. They are one Jay Cutler like injury away from being on the outside, looking in. Sure, sure, they blew the Jets off the field on Sunday, but their offense is AJ Green heavy and needs Dalton to throw it to him. I'm worried. That final spot is anyone's to have at this point. I do like both Miami and the Jets a lot, mainly because their defenses are strong. Both teams are excellent when good and down right unwatchable when bad. They need to find consistency over the next month, or they will get beat out by the likes of San Diego. I'm pretty low on the Browns and Ravens. I just don't see much fire on a consistent basis. And Tennessee just doesn't scare me. If I had to pick one team to grab the final spot as of today, I'd take San Diego. But the Jets are a close second. They have the most penalties in the league. You clean up that mess and watch out.

In the NFC things got shakier on Monday night. But only slightly. Much like the Jets on Sunday, Seattle chose not to show up for the game. Unlike the Jets, they are actually a dominant team good enough to win in spite of themselves. We agree on the top five in the conference, but I disagree with you on the NFC East. Did you watch Dallas play Detroit? Sure, the Cowboys find lots of ways to lose games on a consistent basis. But they are a damn good team on offense, much better than those other 'teams' in the east division. Not to put down your Giants, but the hole they find themselves in is too deep. Its not happening. So where does that leave us? I actually think, with how Seattle performed on Monday night, the wildcard spots are going to be a dog fight. Don't count out Chicago, their defense puts up too many points. The Bears will be fighting with Green Bay and Detroit for the division. Throw Seattle and Carolina in there and we have ourselves some real drama. I do think Carolina falls short and Detroit actually takes the division from Green Bay and the Bears. Who's in? Green Bay and Seattle, as expected. Just don't rule out some week 17, edge of your seat matchups just yet.

The season thus far has surprised me pleasantly. Teams I wanted to be better, like Detroit and Carolina and the Jets, are actually showing signs of actual power. And teams I plainly don't care for, like the Eagles and Buffalo Bills, are wallowing in a sea of self pity. Thank you NFL.


TODD:
Maybe you're right about me being too hard on Dallas. But I get a bit of a feeling about them that you had about Carolina. They just seem to lose late. And until they are mathematically eliminated, I will never count out the Giants. They are the most unpredictable team in football, and have been for close to a decade now. Anytime they are counted on, they fail; and anytime they are counted out, they surprise. So I'm not ready to give the NFC East to Dallas, even if they are the most talented team in that division.

I am with you though on savoring the sweet failure of Philadelphia. It tastes good.


DAN:
Tastes good like Pumpkin beer. Very very good.

[If you missed Part one - The 8 game battle (Power Rankings)]

More Fallout - NFL Free Agency Part Two

More Fallout - NFL Free Agency Part Two
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (3-29-13)

[Part One - The Fallout from NFL Free Agency begins]

TODD:

The interesting thing about how this free agency period has played out is what is happening to veterans who are still usable players. In years past, these guys would never have been released, let alone be wallowing in purgatory with no one wanting to offer more than a one year deal. But since the cap did not increase very much and all those old contracts which were agreed upon during different times (huge cap increases and huge rookie deals to boot) are getting expensive, teams are running out of room. Jake Long's second contract was for less money than his first. Has that ever happened for a perennial pro bowler before? Players who would normally return for public relations' sake (Ed Reed, James Harrison, Dwight Freeney, Brian Urlacher) are being let go because loyalty is not affordable anymore.

The longer this plays out, the cheaper players will become. In a few weeks time, we may look back at that Mike Wallace contract and scratch our heads at why Miami gave him $30 million guaranteed or why teams jumped on the Paul Krugers and Dashon Goldsons when they could have had someone who was 80% the player for 20% the price.

DAN:

Miami knew it had to overpay for Mike Wallace. They bought youth, and as you said, no one is paying for old age (veteran leadership) this off season. I don't think its fair to lump all of those veterans together though. And since when did Public Relations (PR) have any bearing on winning? Its all fine and dandy to have great PR, but no one will care or watch your team if they suck. Winning sells in life and the NFL. Winning comes with its own great PR and in the case of Ed Reed, the Ravens capitalized on the optimal time to cut ties with a diminishing return. They're the champs and have all the PR they need. On the flip side, James Harrison is a beast and the Steelers will regret letting him go. Same for Brian Urlacher, the Bears will regret that decision. He has a TON to prove and will do so admirably. I can't say the same for Dwight Freeney. He'll do well, but cutting him isn't the end of the world for the Colts.

What has shocked me is how quickly teams are snatching up the skill position players who were let go. Who needs Brian Urlacher anyways, lets go get ourselves a backup running back. The Titans signed Shonn Greene. Thanks for taking him off our hands! The Steelers signed Plaxico Burress. That won't end in good PR. What's appealing about these guys? And why is everyone ripping the teams who are letting them go? This brings me to the Jets. I am going to be the first, and possibly only, person to applaud their off season so far.

The New York Jets sucked last year. They sucked the year before too, but had the nice PR buzz of back to back AFC title games to cover up the smell. So what do you do with a crappy team? You tear it down and wave goodbye, piece by piece. I applaud their efforts to this end so far. Shonn Greene was an above average running back, but uninspired on the Jets. This team needs speed in the backfield and he was not the man for that job. They let countless other 'veterans' walk out the door and brought in a key veteran at quarterback, their black eye of a position. David Garrard has a lot to prove, so who better to spark Mark Sanchez and Tim Tebow into proving their own value. One of them is bound to recapture their past potential. I understand your skepticism, but with the ninth pick in the draft the Jets are positioning themselves for future success.

Now back to the league at large. There is always turnover year to year, but until the draft happens in April, I'm not ready to crown anyone the next great team to go from worst to first. Teams like the Cowboys, usually loud this time of year, have been surprisingly quiet. What are you planning Jerry? This thing is just getting started.

TODD:

Free agency is indeed just getting started. There are still dozens of players available who can make a difference for a team on the threshold of the playoffs. But haven't we learned anything about this league? Teams make 'The Leap' for no reason whatsoever. The off-season winners rarely translate, like Philadelphia of recent fame. People's favorite sleepers do not materialize; hello Carolina. And big leaps in wins are generated almost arbitrarily based on who stays healthiest and gets the best play from their quarterback.

Even more so than free agency, the draft does a good job of filling us in on who will make strides towards greatness. The problem is that we do not find out who wins a draft until years later. The only thing made immediately evident is when teams mess up, like Cleveland last season. Kansas City this year has a chance to make a pretty nice leap towards playoff contention. We won't find out if the draft helped them until much later, but we might know right away whether they screwed it up and set themselves back a season or two.

DAN:

You're ability to abstain from having any real opinion here is impressive. I agree that Free Agency is mostly hype and while you choose to ignore it, I see it in reverse. The GREAT free agent signings are truly the ones you mentioned, the ones that don't make headlines, because offensive and defensive lines win championships. The signings that make the headlines should be viewed in reverse. Name me one big free agent signing that pushed a team to a level they weren't already at. Do it. I dare you!

There is always the exception, but the rule here is that off season spending, unlike in basketball and baseball where one or two guys can swing a division, is just for fun. If I was a betting man, I'd bet against the big spenders. Hence my view of the Dolphins and Titans. Neither team was good last year, both average at best. Yet now they've made a leap? Did they get a new coach that I'm unaware of? How about a new quarterback? No. Then no leap for you.

Final fallout for me from this free agency frenzy, the NFC East has been unbelievably quiet. I know I said it earlier, but all the teams were good last season and a key play-maker would help any one of them. The Giants resigned a few guys and are struggling to resign a few more, the Cowboys resigned a few guys too, but keeping your existing talent is hardly a headline. What gives? This division is glam and slam, at least it use to be. Come on Jerry, don't let Dez Bryant have all the headlines!


TODD:
One big free agent signing pushed a team over the top just last season. The Seattle Seahawks signed quarterback Matt Flynn to a huge, new contract, after seeing him have just one impressive start at the end of the prior year. This certainty at the QB position allowed Seattle to then draft a building-block signal-caller in the middle rounds of the NFL draft, someone they knew would not need to start right out of the gate. This man, Russell Wilson, then went to start right out of the gate of course and brought Seattle to the playoffs. Without the Matt Flynn signing, Seattle would have felt the need to draft a quarterback earlier, one they thought could start week one. Instead, they waited to get the man they wanted for the future and he...started week one...okay yeah this is a lackluster example. Big name free agent signings NEVER work out! That's why I said it is pointless to make team predictions off of March movement.

I disagree about the NFC East though. Sure this division is not the cream of the crop it has been in years past. The Eagles struggled mightily; the Cowboys and Giants both took steps back. But just because this division is not making headlines doesn't mean they aren't making moves.

The Redskins have been very quiet this month, but their team rests on the health of their young quarterback. And they cut DeAngelo Hall, which is probably a bigger addition by subtraction than any signing could have been.

The Cowboys made some under-the-radar moves, which is a good thing for them. Being on the ESPN.com front page doesn't directly translate to wins, as Jerry Jones is finding out. Bringing in players like Ernie Sims, Justin Durant and Will Allen on short-term, low-risk contracts is a net positive for Jerry's World.

Philadelphia made a boatload of changes this off-season. They let a number of talented players who underachieved for them go: Cullen Jenkins, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Nnamdi Asomugha. Meanwhile, they added more pieces than they lost with the additions of versatile back James Casey, Patrick Chung, Kenny Phillips and Cary Williams in the defensive backfield, and Connor Barwin in the linebacking corp. The Eagles have already had a very active off-season before the draft has even taken place.

And the New York Giants have made many smart moves, as GM Jerry Reese has become known for. They had to release a bevvy of useful players because of cap reasoning. It would have been nice to bring back Chris Canty, Osi Umenyiora, Michael Boley, Martellus Bennett and others. However, they simply could not afford to. The Giants ended up having over 20 players become free agents. To overcome the losses, the front office did their homework to acquire cheaper options who should contribute. With the likes of Dan Connor and Brandon Myers being added to fill gaping holes as well as the Giants bringing back key players on the offensive line, the team is in great shape as long as Victor Cruz does not get scooped up by another team as a restricted free agent.

Sure these weren't the most newsworthy moves. But as we've said, the moves that were making news were stupid. There is no football league where a Shonn Greene signing should be worth mentioning. Nothing against him, but he kind of sucks at being an NFL-caliber starting tailback.

[Part One - The Fallout from NFL Free Agency begins]