NFL Kickoff: Off season questions 'Tebow vs Hernandez' - Part two

NFL Kickoff: Off season questions 'Tebow vs. Hernandez' - Part two
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (8-9-13)

[Part one - Questions both Real and Hilarious]



TODD:
Besides going global and dealing with what to call itself, the NFL is also interested in expanding the schedule, playing 18 games. There has even been discussion about playoff expansion. This is ludicrous but if it makes more money, it cannot be ruled out. Which brings us past saturation and back to safety concerns. More games and more high-leverage games means more injuries. I agree though that the game is infinitely safer than even a decade ago. And the equipment is continually being improved upon each and every season. I suppose eventually we will reach a point where the injuries have been curtailed enough to be worth the destructive excitement the sport brings. We are not quite at that point yet though.

I'm not even going to touch that "appeasing the women" comment. Let's just move on to my other NFL questions.


DAN:
Give the foreign fans some credit. They'll call it American Football, or simply the NFL. When you talk about soccer internationally, you usually reference the league, not the sport. The real solution however is for everyone to actually pronounce Futbol as its written and use the accent when they say it. Then its easy to hear the difference. Football. Futbol.

Before I dive into your "Fan" questions, the real off season topics of inquiry, you better promise to answer them yourself. I'm sure I'll have followup questions, ahem, the New York Giants defense, but no cop outs. I need answers!

You asked:
(1) From a pure popularity standpoint, as in most interest by the most people, which New England story was actually bigger news, Aaron Hernandez or Tim Tebow?

I wish I could tell you it was Tim Tebow, but from both a New England fans standpoint and from a national standpoint the Hernandez story is infinitely bigger. Initially, when the Hernandez story first broke, it looked like maybe, just maybe, things were getting blown out of proportion. There were a few days when murder was not part of the discussion and him simply missing six games or the season was all this was. At that point in time, Tebow vs. Hernandez was a conversation. Once murder joined the party this was no longer a far fight between news stories. Murder captures headlines and ends careers. It has certainly ended Hernandez's and now the Patriots have a gaping hole in their lineup.

For most teams the loss of a tight end hurts, but is fixable. Take the New York Jets for example. They "lost" Dustin Keller in free agency and promptly signed a veteran replacement in Kellen Winslow. Savy team decision. But the Patriots, their tight ends have been another teams wide receivers of late. Tom Brady's offense thrives on the short game and throwing over the middle to large targets. Now Hernandez is gone, Gronk is out indefinitely it seems, and the Jets already stole the veteran talent in Winslow whom the Patriots would have gotten in years past. This is trouble.

I now have to talk Tim Tebow for a moment or three. This signing should be bigger news, should be more fun and crazy. I enjoyed over a year and a half of Tebow talk when he was on the Jets. Should they have given him an opportunity to start? Yeah, of course. The team sucked last season and had nothing to lose. Hell, I don't think he would have done anything remotely close to the "Butt Fumble" and would have added much needed excitement to a turnover plagued season. But good riddance! He was a distraction and proved less than an asset since the Jets were not going to play him. Having such a huge personality on the team is great if you use him and is annoying if you don't.

Watch out Patriots. No, there won't be chants for Tebow if Tom Brady has a bad game. I'm not sure he's ever put up more than a poor half of football in his professional life. But there WILL be chants for Tim Tebow. Tebow the tight end, with Hernandez and Gronk out. Tebow the wide receiver or Tebow the running back, with question marks across the line of scrimmage at both positions. Tebow the number two quarterback, if and when he falls to third on their depth chart. The Patriots are blowing out the Dolphins with six minutes to go in the game? Put in Tim Tebow you'll here. I say, please oh please play him! Let him ride the bench to your own peril.


TODD:
Having people actually pronounce things as they are supposed to be said seems like wide eyed naivete, but go ahead and dream.

As for the Patriots off season, obviously the Aaron Hernandez story grew to be a huge deal; perhaps the biggest in NFL history based on the facts. This is an active player who has been accused of murder. O.J. Simpson is the only comparable event and, although he was much more famous than Hernandez ever was, he was already retired when his murder charges were brought on. This is an ACTIVE player...just insane. It dwarfs anything related to Tebow. My question, as the days passed, became more and more one-sided.

But even without the Hernandez story gaining steam as details were unearthed, I actually think New England was partly responsible for Tebow-mania not taking off. They kept him under wraps rather than pushing him to the forefront like a certain New York squad. Did they even hold a press conference when he was signed? Nope. Whereas the Jets did everything but buy advertising time on Fox Sports New York when they brought Tim to their team. Just different mindsets for different franchises. I wouldn't be surprised if Tebow barely plays at all, at any position, for New England, tight end deficiency or not. This just does not seem like the type of franchise that would throw him out there for the sake of it, especially a player like him who (reportedly/apparently) has so much trouble learning plays and responsibilities.

And now with news that Jake Ballard may not even make the final roster because of lingering injury concerns, New England might forget about using the tight end position at all. I had high hopes for Ballard becoming the Patriots' main guy at the spot and having himself a pretty solid season, if unspectacular compared to the likes of Hernandez and Gronkowski. But with that, yet another option that may not come to fruition for the Pats, it may be time to play more running backs and wide receivers. I don't know where else they would turn.

Let's move on though before this becomes an all AFC East blog entry. My next question was in regards to using kickers in fantasy football. Sensible players and experts are aware that, essentially, every kicker is the same. Their point production is perfectly unpredictable from one season to the next. A kicker with a career high in successful kicks has no better chance at repeating that outcome than one who struggled the previous season, assuming the latter still holds a job of course. The stats back this up.

[If you missed Part one - Off season questions Real and Hilarious]

[Part three - The fantasy kicker & Barry Sanders]
[Part four - A QB decathlon, rookies & the NY Giants]

NFL Draft 2013: We're all winners Here - Part one

NFL Draft 2013: We're all Winners Here - Part one
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (4-29-13)



TODD:
You were right. The second round and into the weekend of the draft was exciting... perhaps more exciting than Thursday night. There were quarterbacks taken rapid fire, running backs not named Lacy kept getting picked, teams traded up for big names, and luckily all the offensive linemen were taken in round one so there were actually some skill position players coming off the board.

In the end, I think the Giants' draft turned out very well. They addressed every need other than linebacker. I enjoyed the Nassib pick as well. And, in my opinion, there is no better selection on draft day than taking a previously highly-touted player who's stock has dropped. Damontre Moore in round three might not pan out, but he was originally predicted as an early first round pick for a reason. It was worth the risk at pick 81 for sure.

Although things are looking good, the Giants certainly did not have the best draft out of anyone. That distinction belongs to the St. Louis Rams.

Of course, you better have a top tier draft when you have two first round picks. But not messing up with those two first round picks isn't always a given. (That was not a shot at the Jets even though it seems particularly obvious that it hints at such a diss.) The Rams came into this draft needing tons of help on offense and in the defensive backfield. They addressed need number one by trading up for Tavon Austin, the best wide receiver in the draft. To build on a strength, they also selected Austin's teammate Stedman Bailey. If Sam Bradford weren't happy enough, the Rams added Barrett Jones up front and a late-round running back.

On the other side of the ball, St. Louis nabbed Alec Ogletree, the best inside linebacker in this draft. And they got him way down at pick number 30. Safety TJ McDonald was then selected in round three to help sure up the defensive backs. This team is by no means a finished product, but with help on both sides of the ball, the NFC West is not guaranteed to be just a two team race anymore.

I also liked what Green Bay and Tennessee did during the draft. Who do you think had the best draft though? We know the answer is not the Jets.


DAN:
I'm hesitant to name an out right winner when so much is unknown, but our New York teams definitely hit the mark in my opinion. I'm going to smoothly agree with your Giants and Rams analysis. Both teams filled major holes and should rebound nicely next season. But the meat of the draft and of today is my NewYork Jets. They may not have had the best draft, but they did a great job overall. Woo! More relevancy.

The Jets nailed this draft for me the fan. Not only did they fill two major defensive holes. They replaced Revis as best as anyone could hope for and added a pash rusher. Not only did they add depth to a paper thin offensive line and trade for a proven running back. Both moves are pretty sweet. The Jets stole top ten level talent in the second round by drafting Geno Smith at quarterback. I was shocked when he didn't go in the first round. I was nearly as surprised to see Geno fall to the Jets in round two as I was for Milliner to fall to them in round one. And today they cleared all the junk out of the trunk by releasing Tim Tebow. If Mark Sanchez gets released next week we'll have a clean sweep! Realistically the Jets will wait to see how David Garrard's health pans out, but this team is making moves.

I couldn't have asked for more. The Jets cleaned out the proverbial house of as much of last year's team as possible. Thank you!

The rest of the league mostly improved on paper, but not to poke a sleeping giant, did the Patriots forget to show up? This could prove to be the AFC East's biggest win of the weekend.

[Part two - Losers, there are Always Losers]

NFL Draft 2013: Part Three - NY Giants analysis & Draft day Predictions

NFL Draft 2013: Part Three - NY Giants analysis & Draft day Predictions
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (4-22-13)

[Part One - NY Jets preview, Revis trade & the Draft]
[Part Two - NY Jets picks & NY Giants preview]



TODD:
The biggest gaping hole for Big Blue is probably defensive back. The linebacking corp is weaker as a unit but linebackers are easier to find and plug in. However, good DB's are scarce and so integral to a team's success. The Giants lost Kenny Phillips this off-season; Corey Webster, their best corner, has been awful for going on two years and it may be that he simply lost a step, meaning he will continue to be terrible; youngsters Prince Amukamara and Jayron Hosley may not be ready to start and there is little depth behind that trio. Especially with the way the defensive front took a step back in their rushing skills last season, the defensive backfield is as important and as weak as ever.

A trade at this point seems unlikely, although I hear you guys have a solid corner you are dangling to the trade sharks. Wouldn't that be fun? The Jets giving up one of their franchise's best players ever to their big brothers. But Revis is a Buccaneer now and the Giants are right up against the cap and have little room to make a big splash.

Rebuilding is certainly not an option with this team, but it is also not necessary at all. We are not that far away. Last year was a step back but a small one. Some things went wrong, some players underachieved while others got hurt; and the rest of the division is definitely tough. But with a rebound from the passing game and the pass rush (two areas that played well below expectations in 2012 but are strengths of the team), the Giants could be the cream of the NFC East again.

One player to keep an eye on is slot receiver Rueben Randle. He is taking over third receiver responsibilities for the departed Domenik Hixon and should get a ton of playing time this season. Randle may also get a shot at returning punts or kicks (or both). His quickness and speed will be a key compliment to the precise catching/route running of Cruz and the power and athleticism of Hakeem Nicks. At the end of the year, Rueben Randle may be the biggest reason New York's passing game came back to form in 2013.


DAN:
The Giants better draft a speedy defensive end and a speedy defensive back or two, otherwise they will never catch RG3 of the Redskins or whomever the Eagles trot out at QB. You know that dude will be a runner with Chip Kelly at the helm. If the Giants were in any other city, then a trade with the Jets would be a possibility. But as long as they share a stadium, Revis will never be dealt to big blue. Fireman Ed already retired as the NY Jets super fan, but if Revis is a Giant the stadium may be empty week one out of protest. Now that he's a Buc we can lay that argument to bed.

So it seems you feel good about your Giants. If you personally aren't targeting anyone as a guy you hope they draft, then let's jump into the good stuff. Draft day predictions, and not the run of the mill, anyone can come up with selections of the other NFL teams on the board. That's like hitting the snooze button on this article. I'm talking BIG trades, major shockers and men sitting idly in the green room for hours being forced to answer the uncomfortable question of why they have yet to be drafted. For the uninformed, the green room is where the prospective top twenty talent sit and wait to be selected. This year in particular, every quarterback in that room will be on edge. Do they go early or fall back to the second round, forced to return to the green room yet again on day two?

Three Seesaw predictions for Draft Day 2013:

1. Three quarterbacks will be selected in the first round

Explanation - There are too many teams in desperate need of an upgrade at the game's most important position. I know the GM's are claiming they've gotten smarter, and this year's crop of quarterbacks is lacking, but owners want to sell tickets and the hope of a new franchise man under center does just that.

2. Tim Tebow gets dealt during the draft

Explanation - If the Jets have shown us anything, its that they will make the move that provides the splashiest headline. Dealing Tebow during the draft will be the ONLY headline on Friday morning, heading into day two, and the Jets will steal the nation's attention for off the field hijinks once again.

3. The Cleveland Browns botch their first round pick, number six overall

Explanation - None necessary. Its Cleveland.


TODD:
Your quarterback prediction is sound and impossible to argue with. Zero quarterbacks deserve first round selections, but that seems to never matter. The position is just too important for teams not to take flyers on guys and hope they turn into something. I would rather see a team take a better player with their first pick and stab at a mid-round QB like Seattle did last year. The chances of hitting another Russell Wilson though seem remote. Tyler Bray and Mike Glennon are two guys to keep an eye on. They both have tremendous size and tangibles, but struggled with more acute aspects of their game in college... kind of like the anti-Russell Wilson to be honest. They should deliver great value to a team in the middle rounds even if a Wilson-like onslaught of the league is unlikely in year one.

I won't even address your second prediction since, to me at least, the trading of a backup is not newsworthy.

It is funny you threw in your third prediction since I believe it will be entirely linked to your first. The Browns will botch their first round pick because they will take a quarterback who is undeserving of that slot, kind of like they did last year.

My predictions for the 2013 NFL Draft:

1. Linebackers will plummet

Explanation - Jarvis Jones, one of the best half dozen defensive players in the nation during the 2012 season, is tumbling down draft boards because of his injury concerns and terrible combine numbers. Alec Ogletree is falling for off-field and character concerns. Manti Te'o is dropping for both of these reasons. According to Scouts Inc.'s Big Board, the three backers are all ranked between 13th and 24th overall. I see Ogletree dropping to the very end of that span, Jones dropping out of it and Te'o falling out of the first day completely. Not only are linebackers routinely passed over in drafts, but these three specifically have too many questions attached to them.

2. As many tight ends will be taken in the first round as wide receivers

Explanation - The wide receiver crop this year is solid even if there is no top tier, Calvin Johnson type available. This is more a declaration of how important the tight end position is becoming in the NFL. Teams need athletic guys who can create mismatches. This year's draft has two guys, Tyler Eifert and Zach Ertz, who will most certainly be taken in the top 32 picks. I see only two wide receivers going in the same span.

3. Mel Kiper's hair will look tremendous

Explanation - It always does.

[Part Four - Day one Gone Wrong]

[Part One - NY Jets preview, Revis trade & the Draft]

[Part Two - NY Jets picks & NY Giants preview]

More Fallout - NFL Free Agency Part Two

More Fallout - NFL Free Agency Part Two
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (3-29-13)

[Part One - The Fallout from NFL Free Agency begins]

TODD:

The interesting thing about how this free agency period has played out is what is happening to veterans who are still usable players. In years past, these guys would never have been released, let alone be wallowing in purgatory with no one wanting to offer more than a one year deal. But since the cap did not increase very much and all those old contracts which were agreed upon during different times (huge cap increases and huge rookie deals to boot) are getting expensive, teams are running out of room. Jake Long's second contract was for less money than his first. Has that ever happened for a perennial pro bowler before? Players who would normally return for public relations' sake (Ed Reed, James Harrison, Dwight Freeney, Brian Urlacher) are being let go because loyalty is not affordable anymore.

The longer this plays out, the cheaper players will become. In a few weeks time, we may look back at that Mike Wallace contract and scratch our heads at why Miami gave him $30 million guaranteed or why teams jumped on the Paul Krugers and Dashon Goldsons when they could have had someone who was 80% the player for 20% the price.

DAN:

Miami knew it had to overpay for Mike Wallace. They bought youth, and as you said, no one is paying for old age (veteran leadership) this off season. I don't think its fair to lump all of those veterans together though. And since when did Public Relations (PR) have any bearing on winning? Its all fine and dandy to have great PR, but no one will care or watch your team if they suck. Winning sells in life and the NFL. Winning comes with its own great PR and in the case of Ed Reed, the Ravens capitalized on the optimal time to cut ties with a diminishing return. They're the champs and have all the PR they need. On the flip side, James Harrison is a beast and the Steelers will regret letting him go. Same for Brian Urlacher, the Bears will regret that decision. He has a TON to prove and will do so admirably. I can't say the same for Dwight Freeney. He'll do well, but cutting him isn't the end of the world for the Colts.

What has shocked me is how quickly teams are snatching up the skill position players who were let go. Who needs Brian Urlacher anyways, lets go get ourselves a backup running back. The Titans signed Shonn Greene. Thanks for taking him off our hands! The Steelers signed Plaxico Burress. That won't end in good PR. What's appealing about these guys? And why is everyone ripping the teams who are letting them go? This brings me to the Jets. I am going to be the first, and possibly only, person to applaud their off season so far.

The New York Jets sucked last year. They sucked the year before too, but had the nice PR buzz of back to back AFC title games to cover up the smell. So what do you do with a crappy team? You tear it down and wave goodbye, piece by piece. I applaud their efforts to this end so far. Shonn Greene was an above average running back, but uninspired on the Jets. This team needs speed in the backfield and he was not the man for that job. They let countless other 'veterans' walk out the door and brought in a key veteran at quarterback, their black eye of a position. David Garrard has a lot to prove, so who better to spark Mark Sanchez and Tim Tebow into proving their own value. One of them is bound to recapture their past potential. I understand your skepticism, but with the ninth pick in the draft the Jets are positioning themselves for future success.

Now back to the league at large. There is always turnover year to year, but until the draft happens in April, I'm not ready to crown anyone the next great team to go from worst to first. Teams like the Cowboys, usually loud this time of year, have been surprisingly quiet. What are you planning Jerry? This thing is just getting started.

TODD:

Free agency is indeed just getting started. There are still dozens of players available who can make a difference for a team on the threshold of the playoffs. But haven't we learned anything about this league? Teams make 'The Leap' for no reason whatsoever. The off-season winners rarely translate, like Philadelphia of recent fame. People's favorite sleepers do not materialize; hello Carolina. And big leaps in wins are generated almost arbitrarily based on who stays healthiest and gets the best play from their quarterback.

Even more so than free agency, the draft does a good job of filling us in on who will make strides towards greatness. The problem is that we do not find out who wins a draft until years later. The only thing made immediately evident is when teams mess up, like Cleveland last season. Kansas City this year has a chance to make a pretty nice leap towards playoff contention. We won't find out if the draft helped them until much later, but we might know right away whether they screwed it up and set themselves back a season or two.

DAN:

You're ability to abstain from having any real opinion here is impressive. I agree that Free Agency is mostly hype and while you choose to ignore it, I see it in reverse. The GREAT free agent signings are truly the ones you mentioned, the ones that don't make headlines, because offensive and defensive lines win championships. The signings that make the headlines should be viewed in reverse. Name me one big free agent signing that pushed a team to a level they weren't already at. Do it. I dare you!

There is always the exception, but the rule here is that off season spending, unlike in basketball and baseball where one or two guys can swing a division, is just for fun. If I was a betting man, I'd bet against the big spenders. Hence my view of the Dolphins and Titans. Neither team was good last year, both average at best. Yet now they've made a leap? Did they get a new coach that I'm unaware of? How about a new quarterback? No. Then no leap for you.

Final fallout for me from this free agency frenzy, the NFC East has been unbelievably quiet. I know I said it earlier, but all the teams were good last season and a key play-maker would help any one of them. The Giants resigned a few guys and are struggling to resign a few more, the Cowboys resigned a few guys too, but keeping your existing talent is hardly a headline. What gives? This division is glam and slam, at least it use to be. Come on Jerry, don't let Dez Bryant have all the headlines!


TODD:
One big free agent signing pushed a team over the top just last season. The Seattle Seahawks signed quarterback Matt Flynn to a huge, new contract, after seeing him have just one impressive start at the end of the prior year. This certainty at the QB position allowed Seattle to then draft a building-block signal-caller in the middle rounds of the NFL draft, someone they knew would not need to start right out of the gate. This man, Russell Wilson, then went to start right out of the gate of course and brought Seattle to the playoffs. Without the Matt Flynn signing, Seattle would have felt the need to draft a quarterback earlier, one they thought could start week one. Instead, they waited to get the man they wanted for the future and he...started week one...okay yeah this is a lackluster example. Big name free agent signings NEVER work out! That's why I said it is pointless to make team predictions off of March movement.

I disagree about the NFC East though. Sure this division is not the cream of the crop it has been in years past. The Eagles struggled mightily; the Cowboys and Giants both took steps back. But just because this division is not making headlines doesn't mean they aren't making moves.

The Redskins have been very quiet this month, but their team rests on the health of their young quarterback. And they cut DeAngelo Hall, which is probably a bigger addition by subtraction than any signing could have been.

The Cowboys made some under-the-radar moves, which is a good thing for them. Being on the ESPN.com front page doesn't directly translate to wins, as Jerry Jones is finding out. Bringing in players like Ernie Sims, Justin Durant and Will Allen on short-term, low-risk contracts is a net positive for Jerry's World.

Philadelphia made a boatload of changes this off-season. They let a number of talented players who underachieved for them go: Cullen Jenkins, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Nnamdi Asomugha. Meanwhile, they added more pieces than they lost with the additions of versatile back James Casey, Patrick Chung, Kenny Phillips and Cary Williams in the defensive backfield, and Connor Barwin in the linebacking corp. The Eagles have already had a very active off-season before the draft has even taken place.

And the New York Giants have made many smart moves, as GM Jerry Reese has become known for. They had to release a bevvy of useful players because of cap reasoning. It would have been nice to bring back Chris Canty, Osi Umenyiora, Michael Boley, Martellus Bennett and others. However, they simply could not afford to. The Giants ended up having over 20 players become free agents. To overcome the losses, the front office did their homework to acquire cheaper options who should contribute. With the likes of Dan Connor and Brandon Myers being added to fill gaping holes as well as the Giants bringing back key players on the offensive line, the team is in great shape as long as Victor Cruz does not get scooped up by another team as a restricted free agent.

Sure these weren't the most newsworthy moves. But as we've said, the moves that were making news were stupid. There is no football league where a Shonn Greene signing should be worth mentioning. Nothing against him, but he kind of sucks at being an NFL-caliber starting tailback.

[Part One - The Fallout from NFL Free Agency begins]