NFL Kickoff: The fantasy kicker & Barry Sanders - Part three

NFL Kickoff: The fantasy kicker & Barry Sanders - Part three
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (8-12-13)

[Part one - Off season questions Real & Hilarious]
[Part two - Tebow vs. Hernandez]



TODD:
The kicker in fantasy football is irrelevant and should be removed. The stats back this up. Made field goal percentage is so balanced and so steady, everyone always comes back to the mean. You can go through and look up who the projected top fantasy kicker was each season and how rarely that same man finishes the year as the best. So what's the point of using them in fantasy football? It is simply a random chance as to whether you will select the guy who has the good year, the average year or the bad year. There is no skill in this and literally no research you can do to improve your chances of selecting the former.

I am actually in a league that previously did not employ kickers as a position and, just this season, decided to re-institute them, for reasons unbeknownst to me. I guess I can take solace in the fact that someone will overdraft one of these men, and it will work to my benefit. But other than that, what's even the point?


DAN:
I'm with you on the kicker being a relatively flat position in fantasy football. The man himself is irrelevant. Only his team matters. How do you go about selecting a kicker? Pick a team that meets one of two criteria: 1) Scores a ton of points 2) Has a terrible red zone offense and can't get in the end zone. Done and done!

I don't think you remove it from the fantasy conversation however. Its a wildcard position that is not much different than team defense. You are looking for consistency with the potential for a big week. A five field goal day can win or lose you a week in fantasy football and that's what makes it both wildly fun and unbelievably frustrating to play. Fantasy Football is 50% smarts 40% luck and 10% paying attention to injury. Everyone knows this and removing the kicker does not decrease the luck factor nor improve the need for smarts. It just excludes a rather important facet of the actual game of football. It would be like taking saves out of fantasy baseball. Although a poor analogy, its basically removing a fundamental and critical part of the actual sport from our fantasy pastime. No.

I don't know if you could tell, but I was working really hard to avoid reaching your next question. (If Barry Sanders came out of retirement, could he start at running back for the New York Jets?) Let me first lay two things out on the table. One, I don't appreciate being smacked in the face like that. Two, Barry Sanders was an unbelievable talent and top five all time at the running back position. If this was three or even five years after he retired, I would be tempted to answer yes. And that is NOT a knock on the Jets' current crop of running backs. Sanders retired with several solid years left in his tank and would have still been a force on the field a few years after he hung up his cleats. Now? No gosh darn way.

The New York Jets are not poor at running back. They have a solid offensive line full of veteran talent that has made the likes of Shonn Greene look good for the last couple seasons. He has his moments, that is all. I loved what I saw out of Bilal Powell last season and as the starter, watch out. He is going to surprise people. Chris Ivory is no slouch either and will provide the one, two punch that Rex Ryan loves to employ. And don't sleep on Joe McKnight either. He's too small to be the full time starter, but his big play potential is huge. Moral of the story, I'm glad to see Shonn Greene move on and am clamoring for our next Curtis Martin. I know you love Barry Sanders, but let him enjoy his retirement.


TODD:
You have your perceived percentages askew. Fantasy football is more like 40% smarts and 60% luck. Isn't paying attention to anything part of smarts? And wouldn't anything having to do with injuries be classified as luck? Unless of course we're talking about drafting Darren McFadden as your number one running back. That injury is on its way; there's no luck about it.

Removing the kicker position would absolutely decrease the luck factor. The baseball closer is a pretty good analogy but not perfect for one reason. Closers are rotated in and out so frequently that the skill involved is about finding saves, not about finding a year-long closer. Kickers are not normally replaced no matter how average or below average they are performing. As an aside, it would be kind of fun to try a fantasy baseball league without the saves stat. We could still use relief pitcher spots, but owners would be trying to find the best RPs in the league, regardless of whether their real-life manager tabs them as their team's closer. The MLB All-Star game seems to be going that way for some, uninteresting reason. The American League was filled with middle relievers who were performing better than closers elsewhere. It was not fun to wait for them to come into the game but it was fun to see the better pitcher rewarded over the guy with more saves.

Now back to the gridiron, and back to the AFC East, where your beloved New York Jets do have a running back problem whether you care to admit it or not. The NFL is a multi-back league for sure. Unless you have one of the top six or so guys, your team needs more than one reliable runner each and every week. Joe McKnight is a nice wild card; I will give you that. And I like Chris Ivory as well, assuming he is a team's second option at RB. But Bilal Powell? His best game last year came against the Jacksonville Jaguars and he barely cleared four yards per carry. The Jets have no number one guy. To venture back to a baseball analogy, they are like a pitching staff with no ace. They have a number two guy and two number three guys. Sure, it may get them some wins but they shouldn't feel confident with that group.

Barry Sanders, on the other hand, is only 45 years old and...okay, that question was just posed to make fun of the Jets. You got me. A few years after he retired, he could have certainly come back into the league. We all knew this at the time. But now it has been an astonishing 15 years since he last played. 15 years! Can you believe that? It seems like just yesterday he was juking, jumping and jiving through defenses.

[If you missed Part one - Off season questions Real & Hilarious]

[If you missed Part two - Tebow vs. Hernandez]

[Part four - A QB decathlon, rookies & the NY Giants]

NFL Draft 2013: Losers, there are Always Losers - Part two

NFL Draft 2013: Losers, there are Always Losers - Part two
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (5-3-13)

[Part one - We're all winners Here]



DAN:
I'm pulling out my stick and approaching with caution. Not to poke a sleeping giant, at least not too hard, but did the Patriots forget to show up at the draft? Watching them lose the weekend only made me feel better about the Jets. This could prove to be the AFC East's biggest win overall.


TODD:
The New England Patriots definitely left their fans wanting more. They traded away yet another first round pick. It is hard to make news, good or bad, without selecting someone until pick number 52. Also, I feel like Bill Belichick and company have been getting a bit of a pass here recently. They have not been good at drafting, dare I say awful at it, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Perhaps last year and this year were the beginning of a change back to the early aughts, but New England has been receiving an undeserved benefit of the doubt in this regard for years now.

I don't think the rest of the AFC East outpaced them as much as you hint at though. Miami's draft was so-so; their trade up to number 3 to nab Dion Jordan was filled with questions and few answers. The Jets really disappointed me after their nice day one. If you believe in Geno Smith, you take him in round one. If you don't believe in him as a franchise quarterback, then why take him at all? In my mind, they wasted their second round selection. Whereas the Giants drafted a quarterback because his value was too good to pass up, they at least already have the position filled. The Smith pick was low on risk in round two so there was value there, but they are obviously not sold on his ability to start for them or he wouldn't have lasted until pick 39.

The other reason New England isn't looking so bad is because Buffalo is looking worse. What are the Bills doing exactly? They made a shrewd move to drop from 8 to 16 but then took a player who had no business going at 16. Buffalo's brass must have been kicking themselves when we got to day three and they saw what quarterbacks were still on the board. I like Robert Woods and think he will be a solid pro wide out; I am not sure about much else they did though. They drafted a kicker for god's sake! If EJ Manuel pans out, this will all be moot. I just didn't think he was worthy of where he was selected and the deck sure is stacked against him having early season success.

Did anyone have a worse draft than the members of the AFC East? What a coincidental shit show.


DAN:
Hold on a second! Are you for real, Buffalo drafted a kicker? How did I miss this? That would've been my top headline if I ran ESPN and would go like this:  

"Buffalo Bills punish fans by drafting a kicker - In one of the coldest climates of any NFL team, where kicking is deemed foolish in general, the Bills wasted everyone's time by adding a kicker to their roster on draft day."

I'm completely on board with the AFC shit show, minus the Jets. I disagree fully with your poor analysis of where they selected Geno Smith. He was not guaranteed first round talent, had too many question marks and brought too much pressure and speculation as a first round pick. The Jets got two good years and two bad years out of their last first round quarterback and were not about to let history repeat itself. As a second rounder, Geno Smith will meet all expectations. Namely, I have none for him. I hope he is good enough to win the starting job by 2014, but the main objective of drafting him, besides taking the best player available at a position of need, was to put pressure on the current Jet quarterbacks to actually improve. Mark Sanchez is not a lost cause. He sucked last season and needed a reason to get better. Last year Mark knew he had the job, let it go to his head as everyone gave Tebow the attention, and then crumbled as the team fell apart. Now he has real incentive. The Jets were smart in creating that and here's hoping he makes something of himself.

To the actual AFC East shit showing at the draft, what happened? I mean the Patriots have been the best team in the division for a long time now, and even with poor drafts they have managed to fill their holes year after year. I'm not sure they improved at all at the draft, but they didn't have to. Buffalo always amazes me with their ability to suck. I actually like the EJ Manuel pick in general, but not at 16. I would have wanted the Jets to grab him in the early second round, so maybe that's why they nabbed him, I'm not sure. He impressed me when he made the rounds at ESPN, but why cut Ryan Fitzpatrick if you are planning to draft a rookie quarterback? I would allow the Harvard graduate to mentor the new kid, not toss him aside like a piece of trash. And did Miami attend the draft? I honestly don't know. With rumors of them signing Tim Tebow, its like the Bills, Dolphins and Jets all got together and decided to make huge fools of themselves so that the Patriots still look like a dominant team and the division is relevant.

Having said all that, none of the AFC East teams were the biggest loser. That honor belongs to the sorry folks who call themselves Chiefs fans. Most years their team is just competitive enough to not make the playoffs. But no matter, the biggest losers of the draft were by far Kansas City Chiefs fans.

The Chiefs stunk last season and the only consolation for their fans was the first pick of the draft. Wooo first pick! Oh wait, I'm sorry, but there is no skill position player worthy of that pick. You now have an extremely talented lineman to protect your crappy quarterback. Enjoy.

[Part one - We're all winners Here]

NFL Draft 2013: We're all winners Here - Part one

NFL Draft 2013: We're all Winners Here - Part one
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (4-29-13)



TODD:
You were right. The second round and into the weekend of the draft was exciting... perhaps more exciting than Thursday night. There were quarterbacks taken rapid fire, running backs not named Lacy kept getting picked, teams traded up for big names, and luckily all the offensive linemen were taken in round one so there were actually some skill position players coming off the board.

In the end, I think the Giants' draft turned out very well. They addressed every need other than linebacker. I enjoyed the Nassib pick as well. And, in my opinion, there is no better selection on draft day than taking a previously highly-touted player who's stock has dropped. Damontre Moore in round three might not pan out, but he was originally predicted as an early first round pick for a reason. It was worth the risk at pick 81 for sure.

Although things are looking good, the Giants certainly did not have the best draft out of anyone. That distinction belongs to the St. Louis Rams.

Of course, you better have a top tier draft when you have two first round picks. But not messing up with those two first round picks isn't always a given. (That was not a shot at the Jets even though it seems particularly obvious that it hints at such a diss.) The Rams came into this draft needing tons of help on offense and in the defensive backfield. They addressed need number one by trading up for Tavon Austin, the best wide receiver in the draft. To build on a strength, they also selected Austin's teammate Stedman Bailey. If Sam Bradford weren't happy enough, the Rams added Barrett Jones up front and a late-round running back.

On the other side of the ball, St. Louis nabbed Alec Ogletree, the best inside linebacker in this draft. And they got him way down at pick number 30. Safety TJ McDonald was then selected in round three to help sure up the defensive backs. This team is by no means a finished product, but with help on both sides of the ball, the NFC West is not guaranteed to be just a two team race anymore.

I also liked what Green Bay and Tennessee did during the draft. Who do you think had the best draft though? We know the answer is not the Jets.


DAN:
I'm hesitant to name an out right winner when so much is unknown, but our New York teams definitely hit the mark in my opinion. I'm going to smoothly agree with your Giants and Rams analysis. Both teams filled major holes and should rebound nicely next season. But the meat of the draft and of today is my NewYork Jets. They may not have had the best draft, but they did a great job overall. Woo! More relevancy.

The Jets nailed this draft for me the fan. Not only did they fill two major defensive holes. They replaced Revis as best as anyone could hope for and added a pash rusher. Not only did they add depth to a paper thin offensive line and trade for a proven running back. Both moves are pretty sweet. The Jets stole top ten level talent in the second round by drafting Geno Smith at quarterback. I was shocked when he didn't go in the first round. I was nearly as surprised to see Geno fall to the Jets in round two as I was for Milliner to fall to them in round one. And today they cleared all the junk out of the trunk by releasing Tim Tebow. If Mark Sanchez gets released next week we'll have a clean sweep! Realistically the Jets will wait to see how David Garrard's health pans out, but this team is making moves.

I couldn't have asked for more. The Jets cleaned out the proverbial house of as much of last year's team as possible. Thank you!

The rest of the league mostly improved on paper, but not to poke a sleeping giant, did the Patriots forget to show up? This could prove to be the AFC East's biggest win of the weekend.

[Part two - Losers, there are Always Losers]

NFL Draft 2013: Part Four - Day one Gone Wrong

NFL Draft 2013: Part Four - Day one Gone Wrong
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (4-26-13)

[Part One - NY Jets, Revis and the Draft]
[Part Two - NY Jets picks and Giants preview]
[Part Three - NY Giants analysis & Draft day predictions]



Actual NY Jets and Giants picks:

NY Jets: Dee Milliner (DB, Alabama) and Sheldon Richardson (DT, Missouri)
NY Giants: Justin Pugh (OT, Syracuse)


Seesaw Sports Predictions:

- Jets select Dee Milliner with the ninth pick (Money in the bank!)
- Giants thin at offensive line but even thinner at linebacker
- Three quarterbacks chosen in first round (Umm.... excuse us a moment)
- Tebow gets traded during the draft (It could still happen!)
- Cleveland botches their first round pick (Barkevious Mingo, DE, practical)
- Linebackers plummet (Three were selected, hardly plummeting)
- Tight ends selected equals Wide receivers selected (Three WR to one TE)
- Mel Kiper's hair looks tremendous (Duh)



TODD:
Well, we pretty much botched all our predictions but the more important point here is this: has the NFL draft gone the way of the NFL playoffs; is it even possible to predict this shit anymore?? Where most things in other sports are becoming more transparent and more sensible with all the information and statistics we now have at our disposal, it seems the NFL is somehow immune to this development.

I mean, right off the bat, the number one overall pick was a semi-surprise. Everyone knew Kansas City was going to select Luke Joeckel number one. I think they may have taken Fisher instead simply to stick it to mock drafters. Why else would they take someone who plays the same position but isn't quite as good?

From there, things were going okay, with some interesting trades sprinkled in, until Buffalo picked at 18. Everyone figured the Bills would take a quarterback in round one. We thought it would happen with the eighth pick. Instead, they traded back knowing they would still get their man and they were right because their man, EJ Manuel, was not expected to be taken by anybody until the weekend.

I'm fine with what the Giants did even though I was really hoping Jarvis Jones was going to fall to them; you must be very happy with how things played out for the Jets, especially getting their Revis-replacement. But overall, is the NFL draft about misinformation more than any other event in all of sports? Do teams purposely release info to confuse us (and opponents)? This seems to be the smartest thing a GM could do but it also seems to go against every reason that Twitter and the internet and Adam Schefter exist.


DAN:
Our Jets and Giants breakdowns were solid across the board. We mixed in our desires with actual team needs and its actually refreshing that team needs won out mostly. I'm thrilled that Milliner fell to the Jets at nine. He is a solid defensive back and will be mentored by one of the best in the game, Cromartie. As for the defensive line selection, I can't argue with striving to increase the Jets poor sack and quarterback pressure numbers from last season. They got crushed up front all year long. If the team goes strong offense in rounds two and three I'm happy. Otherwise, ignoring one of the many offensive linemen in the first round could prove costly for the Jets.

On the Giants front you nailed the glaring need at offensive line, which they promptly filled. For your sake I hope they go linebacker in round two, but that might be a reach at this point.

Overall round one was a snooze fest. Teams are getting smart and with the linemen being the cream of this draft's crop, teams snatched them up. It made for bad television however. To your point, I think much of the misinformation we get leading up to the draft is designed to build buzz. The NFL is the king of buzz, king of headlines and king of the media. They turned their draft into a three day holiday practically, and the build up of buzz is integral to this. They must be licking their chops right now heading into the second round. The first round is always gold for television ratings, no matter who is selected. We got the EJ Manuel pick which was exciting and kind of surprising. After hearing him on ESPN this week I thought he was a true stud, smart and centered. But now day two is upon us and the treasure trove of stud players is enormous. All the 'name' talent who were reaches in round one are steals in round two and the NFL is left with a tremendously exciting second day of coverage. Manti and Geno are still around, not to mention all the running backs and tight ends on the board.

The NFL deserves some applause, orchestrating yet again another exciting day of draft coverage. Pause for a nice slow golf clap. Now throw in the young boy suffering with a terminal illness who came up and announced his favorite team's pick, the Saints, and we can up our applause to a full on clap. Thanks NFL for making April fun.

Now if only the Jets would make things fun and actually add some talent to our division three level offense. Thanks guys!

[Part One - NY Jets, Revis and the Draft]

[Part Two - NY Jets picks and Giants preview]

[Part Three - NY Giants analysis & Draft day predictions]

NFL Draft 2013: Part Two - NY Jets picks & Giants preview

NFL Draft 2013: Part Two - NY Jets picks & Giants preview
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (4-19-13)

[Part One - NY Jets preview & Darrelle Revis]



DAN:
I don't need your pretend empathy. The Giants have won too much for you to ever understand what its like for your favorite football team to have never won a championship in your lifetime. The Jets won Superbowl III and I'm excited for the day when that no longer matters so much. Here's to the future and getting some good value for Revis!

Let's assume the Jets make the trade I proposed, they deal Revis and a pick for three pics and a player. Its better than letting him walk and could lead to some heavy hitters in the draft. The Bucs have high pics this year, so there 2013 second round pick is a good one. I'd venture to say that their first round pick next season will be top fifteen, so both are looking good. Here's who I want with the 9th pick in 2013 and the Jets and Bucs second rounders in 2013. I know Rex Ryan loves defense and could use some speed in the linebacking core, but the offense was hugely underwhelming last season and should be the focus heading into the draft, with one BIG exception.

9th pick: Mel Kiper has Dee Milliner, CB from Alabama, going at number five. If he's still available when the Jets are on the board, I want them to pick him with the 9th pick. This is not inconceivable and would provide a cornerback for the future to try and replace the loss of Revis. Plus they have Cromartie to teach the kid the ropes. If Milliner is gone, then I want Lane Johnson, OT from Oklahoma. Kiper has him at eleven, but the Jets couldn't protect a fly let alone Sanchez last season. They need to bolster their offensive line and Johnson is their man.

2nd round pics: Lumping together the Jets own second round pick and the one from the Bucs, I go strong offense here. If Eddie Lacy, RB Alabama, drops to them in the early second round then the Jets should grab him faster than a kid on Christmas. Kiper has him at 26th in the first round, but we shall see. Then, with the Bucs pic I want to go quarterback. I think Landry Jones, QB from Oklahoma, is a great grab in the mid second round. His TD/INT ratio is solid, with a lot of yards to show for himself. Also, at 6'4" and 218 he can withstand the beating he's sure to get as quarterback of the Jets... We Jets fans are self deprecating okay? Geez.

I would love to tell you about next year's draft as well, but that's a little out there for me. What's your take on the situation and the Jets' draft needs? And more importantly, who are your Giants targeting? They underachieved last season too and have some holes to fill now.


TODD:
I would agree that Milliner would be a very nice selection at ninth overall, especially with the circular nature of him replacing the star they just shipped out of town. However, I also agree it is (not inconceivable but) unlikely he will be there. There are so many talented pass rushers available at the top of this draft. Although you know better than me whether the Jets would sorely regret passing on some offensive line help instead of improving at defensive end. If o-line is the choice, Eric Fisher, Lane Johnson or Jonathan Cooper seem like nice options. If the Jets can come away with either the best guard on the board or one of the top three tackles, they should be pleased.

As far as the second round goes, this is where I am no longer with you. I have seen too many teams make mistakes by grabbing a running back early. They are too volatile, too interchangeable and too dependent on the team around them. There are going to be backs drafted well after Eddie Lacy who have a better career than him, mark it down. And I understand the desire to grab a quarterback any chance you get. A team without a reliable QB might as well be taking the season off. But Landry Jones is not the answer. We may see half a dozen quarterbacks get taken in the second round, each with certain strengths and weaknesses. I feel like there are better upside plays than taking Jones and the Jets may even be better off helping the rest of their roster and waiting another season on finding that future behind center.

The Giants are certainly lucky in that respect. They do not have to worry about filling the quarterback position. What we do have to fill though, is almost everything else. Offensive line is thin, wide receiver is in dire straits if Victor Cruz does not return, defensive line lost a number of pieces, the linebacking shelf is as empty as ever and the defensive backfield could use some work. What else is left? Oh, we also might need a running back to split carries with David Wilson.

In recent years, the Giants have done very well for themselves drafting the best player available when their turn is up. I have confidence in the front office to continue this trend, especially with how many places are areas of need this off-season. The only thing I'll say is that I hope they finally draft a linebacker pretty early. Year after year the Giants choose to push linebacker to a secondary concern, as if it isn't an important spot. And while the position can be filled by players who are not elite athletes and a linebacker's success may hinge greatly on who is playing in front of him, it is still frustrating to see the Giants' list of starting linebackers week one of each new season. It never looks pretty.


DAN:
I'd be thrilled if the Jets went o-line in the first round, but if Rex Ryan has a say about it they probably go the pass rushing route and grab a speedy defensive end. Your Giants could learn a thing or two in that respect as they definitely need to bolster the defense. Assuming Victor Cruz re-signs, then Eli Manning to Cruz can win you some games, but the defense will loose a bunch if something isn't done. You noted a ton of holes for the Giants. What's the biggest gaping hole and can it be filled via the draft? Is it the linebackers, and if the draft class won't cut it, do the Giants look to trade in order to return to form this season.

The Giants, unlike the Jets, are in the interesting position of having taken a step back while in their franchise quarterback's prime. Rebuilding is not an option here, yet no QB can compensate for all a team's shortfalls. The Giants front office is outstanding and has never let the fans down in Eli's career, so am I missing something? Any sneaky backup players to watch this season? A free agent you wish they'd grab? I'm fairly confident the Giants compete for the top spot in the NFC East again this season, yet I'm at a loss for how they start the year as a better team then the Redskins or Cowboys.

[Part Three - NY Giants analysis & Draft day Predictions] 
[Part Four - Day one Gone Wrong]

[Part One - NY Jets preview & Darelle Revis]

NFL Draft 2013: Part One - NY Jets, Revis & the Draft

NFL Draft 2013: Part One - NY Jets, Revis & the Draft
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (4-15-13)



TODD:
Rumor has it, Darrelle Revis might get dealt this month during the NFL draft. As a New York Jets fan, how does this make you feel? This seems ten times worse than the Bears releasing Brian Urlacher or the Ravens letting Ed Reed walk. Darrelle Revis is still really good. In fact, (sportswriter caveat warning) if he is fully healthy, Revis is the very best defensive back in the league. The BEST.

Do the Jets not believe he will ever return to his old form? Is that why he's been so clearly available? Do they think he will be past his prime by the time the Jets are ready to compete, thus trading him for assets makes more sense? Or is it something else?

Reportedly, the Jets want Tampa Bay's first round pick (13th overall) for the DB. According to ESPN Rumor Central, the Bucs want to wait until draft day and see who goes in the top twelve. If one of their targets drops, they might balk on the deal. But if no one strikes their fancy, they would pull the trigger for Revis. Of course, they have also offered a first round pick for the following draft and would be willing to throw in additional pieces for the Jets to take that offer. If you're New York, wouldn't you just assume add as many picks as possible (thus taking the 2014 first rounder) if you are going to go this route anyway?

In a larger sense, this type of deal happens all the time, in all the major sports. A star player gets dealt for draft picks and teams are always delighted to get the picks. But how often is that selection, even a first rounder, anything close to the player the star is? I get the idea of rebuilding but how come no one is ever able to rebuild with younger talent who is already in the league? You're telling me there is not a single cornerback in the NFL right now who is younger, cheaper but not as good as Revis that the Jets could obtain? Why wouldn't a contender be looking for that skill upgrade?


DAN:
Way to poke an open wound. Darrelle Revis is in my top three all time Jets I've had the pleasure to watch. He falls behind Curtis Martin and Ladainian Tomlinson. Martin is number one because we got him in his prime, while Tomlinson was singing his swan song. Both game changers, yet you could convince me Revis is number one and I wouldn't be upset about it. He is that dynamic, that powerful as a weapon and a shut down guy that he instantly makes the entire team better. Having BOTH Revis and Antonio Cromartie on the field was a dream that felt too good to be true and hasn't lasted.

Having said all that, it was agony the last time Revis held out for more money before the final year of his deal. This took place a mere two years ago and none of us, especially the Jets front office, have forgotten. Throw in the fact that the team was just awful last year, needs more new players than exist on the open market and have way too much long term money committed to junk, and you have a BIG problem. So what do you do? I don't want to see Revis leave, but I'm with the Jets on this one. I can't justify paying him what he wants and has definitely earned. The team needs too many other guys and one player on defense can't win anything. Let me stress however that I do not think the Jets made any effort to re-sign him, which pisses me off to no end.

I was reveling in the Rex Ryan era, having finally shook the stink of "The Same old Jets," but it seems that was short lived. The same old Jets do this. They make mistake after mistake and alienate their players it would seem. I'm going to speak with the assumption that the Jets have chosen not to re-sign Revis or play out the 2013 season with him on roster. This was apparent to me after they chose not to speak to him, stated publicly that no player was safe, and then stated publicly that Revis won't be traded. As we know, that means he will.

The Jets have to get as much as possible for the best defensive player of his generation. I don't think the ACL injury matters. With ample rehab time we've seen time and time again how players come back at equal or greater skill level. Most recently Adrian Peterson did just this. I'm going one step further and saying that getting draft picks is NOT enough. They need a player or two and two picks. I'm with you, get a young guy from the Bucs along with the pics. We all thought nothing could top the Butt Fumble, but this debacle is starting to. Here's my proposal for the trade:

Jets send Darrelle Revis and a fourth round pick in 2013 to the Bucs.
Tampa Bay sends their first round pick in 2014, their second round pick in 2013, their sixth round pick in 2013 and Player X to the Jets.

I don't know who Player X should be, but anyone is better than no one. Draft pics are like lottery tickets with a slightly better return. At least a player is a real human being. And we all know the Jets need real human beings playing for them. Conjecture and boasting won't catch and tackle for you. And neither will Mark Sanchez.... yeah I made the joke. Better I say it than you.


TODD:
It does seem rather difficult being a Jets fan. I wouldn't know personally as my favorite team has won multiple Super Bowls in the last ten years. But I can imagine... kind of.

Let's say the Jets do make your proposed trade. They send away Revis and a mid-round pick for a first rounder next year, a couple mid-rounders this year and a contributing, young player. Most likely, the most productive 2013 player will be that guy who has already played a couple seasons. With that in mind, who would the second round pick, or even the first round pick next season, have to be in order for this to work out well for New York? Taking a look at the big board, is there anyone you hope they are targeting?

[ Part Two - NY Jets picks and NY Giants preview]
[Part Three - NY Giants analysis & Draft day Predictions] 
[Part Four - Day one Gone Wrong]

More Fallout - NFL Free Agency Part Two

More Fallout - NFL Free Agency Part Two
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (3-29-13)

[Part One - The Fallout from NFL Free Agency begins]

TODD:

The interesting thing about how this free agency period has played out is what is happening to veterans who are still usable players. In years past, these guys would never have been released, let alone be wallowing in purgatory with no one wanting to offer more than a one year deal. But since the cap did not increase very much and all those old contracts which were agreed upon during different times (huge cap increases and huge rookie deals to boot) are getting expensive, teams are running out of room. Jake Long's second contract was for less money than his first. Has that ever happened for a perennial pro bowler before? Players who would normally return for public relations' sake (Ed Reed, James Harrison, Dwight Freeney, Brian Urlacher) are being let go because loyalty is not affordable anymore.

The longer this plays out, the cheaper players will become. In a few weeks time, we may look back at that Mike Wallace contract and scratch our heads at why Miami gave him $30 million guaranteed or why teams jumped on the Paul Krugers and Dashon Goldsons when they could have had someone who was 80% the player for 20% the price.

DAN:

Miami knew it had to overpay for Mike Wallace. They bought youth, and as you said, no one is paying for old age (veteran leadership) this off season. I don't think its fair to lump all of those veterans together though. And since when did Public Relations (PR) have any bearing on winning? Its all fine and dandy to have great PR, but no one will care or watch your team if they suck. Winning sells in life and the NFL. Winning comes with its own great PR and in the case of Ed Reed, the Ravens capitalized on the optimal time to cut ties with a diminishing return. They're the champs and have all the PR they need. On the flip side, James Harrison is a beast and the Steelers will regret letting him go. Same for Brian Urlacher, the Bears will regret that decision. He has a TON to prove and will do so admirably. I can't say the same for Dwight Freeney. He'll do well, but cutting him isn't the end of the world for the Colts.

What has shocked me is how quickly teams are snatching up the skill position players who were let go. Who needs Brian Urlacher anyways, lets go get ourselves a backup running back. The Titans signed Shonn Greene. Thanks for taking him off our hands! The Steelers signed Plaxico Burress. That won't end in good PR. What's appealing about these guys? And why is everyone ripping the teams who are letting them go? This brings me to the Jets. I am going to be the first, and possibly only, person to applaud their off season so far.

The New York Jets sucked last year. They sucked the year before too, but had the nice PR buzz of back to back AFC title games to cover up the smell. So what do you do with a crappy team? You tear it down and wave goodbye, piece by piece. I applaud their efforts to this end so far. Shonn Greene was an above average running back, but uninspired on the Jets. This team needs speed in the backfield and he was not the man for that job. They let countless other 'veterans' walk out the door and brought in a key veteran at quarterback, their black eye of a position. David Garrard has a lot to prove, so who better to spark Mark Sanchez and Tim Tebow into proving their own value. One of them is bound to recapture their past potential. I understand your skepticism, but with the ninth pick in the draft the Jets are positioning themselves for future success.

Now back to the league at large. There is always turnover year to year, but until the draft happens in April, I'm not ready to crown anyone the next great team to go from worst to first. Teams like the Cowboys, usually loud this time of year, have been surprisingly quiet. What are you planning Jerry? This thing is just getting started.

TODD:

Free agency is indeed just getting started. There are still dozens of players available who can make a difference for a team on the threshold of the playoffs. But haven't we learned anything about this league? Teams make 'The Leap' for no reason whatsoever. The off-season winners rarely translate, like Philadelphia of recent fame. People's favorite sleepers do not materialize; hello Carolina. And big leaps in wins are generated almost arbitrarily based on who stays healthiest and gets the best play from their quarterback.

Even more so than free agency, the draft does a good job of filling us in on who will make strides towards greatness. The problem is that we do not find out who wins a draft until years later. The only thing made immediately evident is when teams mess up, like Cleveland last season. Kansas City this year has a chance to make a pretty nice leap towards playoff contention. We won't find out if the draft helped them until much later, but we might know right away whether they screwed it up and set themselves back a season or two.

DAN:

You're ability to abstain from having any real opinion here is impressive. I agree that Free Agency is mostly hype and while you choose to ignore it, I see it in reverse. The GREAT free agent signings are truly the ones you mentioned, the ones that don't make headlines, because offensive and defensive lines win championships. The signings that make the headlines should be viewed in reverse. Name me one big free agent signing that pushed a team to a level they weren't already at. Do it. I dare you!

There is always the exception, but the rule here is that off season spending, unlike in basketball and baseball where one or two guys can swing a division, is just for fun. If I was a betting man, I'd bet against the big spenders. Hence my view of the Dolphins and Titans. Neither team was good last year, both average at best. Yet now they've made a leap? Did they get a new coach that I'm unaware of? How about a new quarterback? No. Then no leap for you.

Final fallout for me from this free agency frenzy, the NFC East has been unbelievably quiet. I know I said it earlier, but all the teams were good last season and a key play-maker would help any one of them. The Giants resigned a few guys and are struggling to resign a few more, the Cowboys resigned a few guys too, but keeping your existing talent is hardly a headline. What gives? This division is glam and slam, at least it use to be. Come on Jerry, don't let Dez Bryant have all the headlines!


TODD:
One big free agent signing pushed a team over the top just last season. The Seattle Seahawks signed quarterback Matt Flynn to a huge, new contract, after seeing him have just one impressive start at the end of the prior year. This certainty at the QB position allowed Seattle to then draft a building-block signal-caller in the middle rounds of the NFL draft, someone they knew would not need to start right out of the gate. This man, Russell Wilson, then went to start right out of the gate of course and brought Seattle to the playoffs. Without the Matt Flynn signing, Seattle would have felt the need to draft a quarterback earlier, one they thought could start week one. Instead, they waited to get the man they wanted for the future and he...started week one...okay yeah this is a lackluster example. Big name free agent signings NEVER work out! That's why I said it is pointless to make team predictions off of March movement.

I disagree about the NFC East though. Sure this division is not the cream of the crop it has been in years past. The Eagles struggled mightily; the Cowboys and Giants both took steps back. But just because this division is not making headlines doesn't mean they aren't making moves.

The Redskins have been very quiet this month, but their team rests on the health of their young quarterback. And they cut DeAngelo Hall, which is probably a bigger addition by subtraction than any signing could have been.

The Cowboys made some under-the-radar moves, which is a good thing for them. Being on the ESPN.com front page doesn't directly translate to wins, as Jerry Jones is finding out. Bringing in players like Ernie Sims, Justin Durant and Will Allen on short-term, low-risk contracts is a net positive for Jerry's World.

Philadelphia made a boatload of changes this off-season. They let a number of talented players who underachieved for them go: Cullen Jenkins, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Nnamdi Asomugha. Meanwhile, they added more pieces than they lost with the additions of versatile back James Casey, Patrick Chung, Kenny Phillips and Cary Williams in the defensive backfield, and Connor Barwin in the linebacking corp. The Eagles have already had a very active off-season before the draft has even taken place.

And the New York Giants have made many smart moves, as GM Jerry Reese has become known for. They had to release a bevvy of useful players because of cap reasoning. It would have been nice to bring back Chris Canty, Osi Umenyiora, Michael Boley, Martellus Bennett and others. However, they simply could not afford to. The Giants ended up having over 20 players become free agents. To overcome the losses, the front office did their homework to acquire cheaper options who should contribute. With the likes of Dan Connor and Brandon Myers being added to fill gaping holes as well as the Giants bringing back key players on the offensive line, the team is in great shape as long as Victor Cruz does not get scooped up by another team as a restricted free agent.

Sure these weren't the most newsworthy moves. But as we've said, the moves that were making news were stupid. There is no football league where a Shonn Greene signing should be worth mentioning. Nothing against him, but he kind of sucks at being an NFL-caliber starting tailback.

[Part One - The Fallout from NFL Free Agency begins]

The NY Yankees Black hole at Third- Wrap up Time!

 

The NY Yankees Black hole at Third - Wrap up Time!

by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (1-18-13)

[Part One from Monday]

TODD:

The Yankees' corner man situation won't be pretty. As I tweeted the other day, @sportspinata, the Yankees have turned into an owner in a fantasy auction draft. They had a plan and didn't want to go over budget on certain guys, rightfully so. But, instead of waiting out the other players for a bargain, they waited too long and are left with nothing but scrub options. Sometimes, in these auction drafts, you look back and wish you had gone four to five dollars more on that guy who can actually walk and chew gum.

As for Youkilis, why the vitriol? Why do you care who he used to play for? I never understood this argument from other fans or even analysts. I have never met any of these MLB players, know nothing about who they are and really couldn't care. If they are wearing a Yankees uniform, I will root for them to succeed! Fans get all bent out of shape about the lack of loyalty in professional sports. Here's an idea, stop being so loyal to people you don't know, have never met, will never meet and will never be friends with! You root for a team; that should be enough.

If Youkilis the Yankee bats over .280 I will welcome him with open arms. If he is confirmed as washed up, I will root for his exit, which has nothing to do with who he used to play for.

DAN: 

Completely love the auction draft guy analogy. I've been that guy. I've also been the guy who pays the extra five bucks only to see said player hit IR within a week. Fantasy!!

You've opened a can of worms with the fan debate. I whole heartily agree that as a fan of a team you root for your team and the guys on it to succeed. I don't think I'd care much for Santonio Holmes if he wasn't a Jet, considering he's a demon in the locker room.  But here's where you've got it all wrong.  We root for a team as a fan, but we love our teams because of the guys on it. And we love it even more because of our team's enemies. As a Jets fan I'm grateful to hold the Patriots as an enemy, and as a Yankees fan we have the Red Sox to some extent. Considering the Red Sox have been a vastly inferior product for much of my life, I never really 'hated' them, but as a fan I did come to hate some of their players over the years. Particularly my years living in Boston.

Back to third base and Kevin Youkilis.  It’s not that I hate having him on my team; I’m thrilled to root for whoever is playing third for the Yankees, but I despise him a little. I hold some vitriol for the Red Sox and their players from the successful seasons of 2003 through 2008, a five year stretch in which I spent the first three living in Boston. I do not care for those players, except maybe Johnny Damon who I was thrilled to have as a Yankee. He seemed anti Red Sox by the end of things. Loved it.

As fans we love and hate irrationally and that's what makes it fun! To not hold loyalty to any player is to hold loyalty to a logo which is just color and design on fabric. I'm human and I like to connect with other humans. I want another Derek Jeter!

TODD: 

This is where my irrational love of statistics and my ice cold heart come into play. I could not care less if Derek Jeter played for the Minnesota Twins tomorrow as long as the Yankees had someone to take his place (Hey there Eduardo!). I really have no loyalty to any players of any kind in any sport. I don't know how this developed really. When I was a little kid my favorite players (Ken Griffey Jr. in baseball) were never on my favorite teams. And now that I have no favorite players, I strictly root for fantasy success and the Yankees, end of story.

Columnists always wax poetic about how sports are a business and fans need to see that in the decisions teams make. I actually don't think teams go far enough sometimes. Let's use Jeter as another example. Everyone was fine with this past contract the Yankees gave him because he had earned it with everything he did previously. How idiotic is that!? Would an owner of Home Depot pay an old man who cannot mix paint anymore just because he used to be the best paint mixer in town? Sports seem to show MORE loyalty than regular jobs, not less; and it is because no one roots for or pays to watch that old man mix paint. Teams would be much better off in most situations if they took their hearts out of decisions.

Just know that my heart is cold and black when it comes to professional athletes. Most people think they care about certain players, but they're just too stubborn to admit otherwise. How many of those Yankees fans rooted for Jeter's head when he got off to a terrible start a few seasons back; and how many diehards will yell and scream in favor of Kevin freakin' Youkilis the first time he goes four for five in a game?

DAN: 

Even though I root for players, I'd fire the elderly paint mixer.  I'm forced to agree as both a realist and a big picture guy. I love having players to root for and I've loved rooting for Derek Jeter over the years. But the Yankees should have given him a one year deal and seen how it went. He played great, so give him another year. But signing any old guy long term is dumb. Good franchises don't fall into this trap more often than not, and bad franchises never have this trap to worry about in the first place.

Speaking of a bad team, I can’t believe I’m saying this, but I've actually enjoyed rooting for Mark Sanchez over the three seasons prior to this current one as a Jet. Living in Los Angeles I got to see him kick ass on the USC Trojans and then get drafted by my favorite team. Win, win! However, I'm not blind. He has to go. So it doesn’t have to be as cut and dry as you make it. You can root, root, root for your guys until they are no longer valuable to your team. As for the Yankees and Youkilis, he is an excellent one year stop gap at 3B, 1B, DH etc. Great pick up. At least that's what I keep telling myself.  I'll find it in my heart to root for him. It’s not cold and black like yours.

[If you missed Part One from Monday]

Thirteen Predictions for 2013 - Part Three

Thirteen Predictions for 2013 - Part Three

by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (1-7-13)

[Part One] [Part Two]

TODD:

I think Tony Romo getting traded is a distinct possibility but, come on, Matt Barkley going 12th overall?? He had a down year, then got hurt. Unless he has a magical combine, teams noticed his lack of superior arm strength this season and should be wary of his decision making after the Trojans' season fell apart. If Barkley couldn't win in college with that much talent, how can NFL scouts expect him to excel at the next level when the talent is much more evenly dispersed?

The only reason your Barkley comment isn't so bad is because your next predictions overshadow it with stupidity. Why would the Yankees sign Michael Bourn? He is a Scott Boras client so we know NY won't be able to get him cheap or get a one year deal there, which would be in direct competition with their 2014-get-under-the-tax plan. Also, they already have two starting outfielders who do nearly the exact same thing as Michael Bourn. Ichiro and Brett Gardner are both no power, high speed and contact outfielders. Bourn is better than either of them but brings no new skills to the Yankees outfield. 

(10) Speaking of stupid predictions, we can all tell you are not a golf fan by the way you ordered your Phil Mickelson guess. The Masters takes place in April, so if Phil were to win the green jacket and retire, shouldn't that have been number six or seven on this list? To make matters worse, it ain't happening! Phil, although only 42, has too many younger and more talented guys ahead of him in the chase for the green jacket. Give it to Zach Johnson instead. 

(11) With all the spending going on in MLB these days, the deeper pocketed teams extend their advantage over everyone else. The World Series matchup will be indicative of this. The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim will be back in the series on the backs of their loaded lineup and sterling pitching to face the Cincinnati Reds. With Albert Pujols, Josh Hamilton and highly paid, highly skilled players all through their 25-man roster, the Angels take the series in six games even though Joey Votto comes out of October looking like the best player in the league. 

(12) As December rolls around, the Carolina Panthers will have the best record in the NFL. Behind MVP-candidate Cam Newton and the best rushing attack in the league, Carolina continues the trend of teams making huge leaps from one season to another. The lack of an elite pass rush will thwart the Panthers' chances to make it to the Super Bowl but, by this time, every football fan in the country realizes the best team in the regular season in no way correlates to the Super Bowl champ come February.

(13) In college football, for the final BCS Championship game before the playoff system is instituted, the Ohio State Buckeyes will face LSU in a rematch of the 2007 title game contest. Urban Meyer proved this past season how much better of a coach he is than everyone else in America. Give him a year to recruit where OSU is not on probation and the Buckeyes will be fearsome. 

As for who will win this game, you'll have to wait for next year's predictions because that game will not take place until January 2014.

DAN: 

Hey!  I'm a fan of the idea of a golf outing.  And don't discount the ineptitude of NFL scouting.  Matt Barkley is getting his shot.  Furthermore, the Yankees better sign someone new in the outfield as injury insurance if not batting lineup improvement, otherwise this is going to be a very, very long season.  Where's our new blood!

(11)  If I had to pick one team I'd want in the World Series, and the Yankees were out, then it would be the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.  This would at least provide me the opportunity to attend a game, if my wallet was big enough.  Sorry Dodgers, but your stadium falls way short in the fun to attend department.  Otherwise, your prediction appears well thought out, based in fact, and not entirely off the mark.  I see both the Angels and Reds as playoff teams, but neither is making the World Series.

With my hand to the fire and removing the Yankees from the equation, since I can't honestly pick against my team unless forced to, I'd say the Braves face the Rays in the World Series.  The team with the healthiest pitching wins... Atlanta.

(12)  Predicting Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams will both stay healthy all year is a huge leap of faith! As for my pick of the team to make a huge leap next season, its the one dearest to my heart.  The NY Jets bounce back to finish 10-6 and make the playoffs.  The defense really gelled this past year and is a standout group again in 2013.  The running game finally takes hold with Joe McKnight splitting the load with Bilal Powell.  As for QB, I already touched on this in a somewhat wishful thinking manner, but I'm not concerned.  There are plenty of QBs out there who can do better than 50 turnovers in two seasons.

(13)  I'm heading in a different direction for next year's college football season, as I can probably rattle off the top five teams, but isolating the top two is arbitrary at best.  I'm jumping on the "Johnny Football" bandwagon and predicting that Johnny Manziel wins back to back Heisman trophies for Texas A&M. 

[Part One]   [Part Two]

Prediction Summary and Wrap up on Friday