NFL 2nd Quarter: The eight game Battle - Part one

NFL 2nd Quarter: The eight game Battle - Part one
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (10-28-13)

Eight games of the NFL season are in the books, the perfect time for us at Seesaw Sports to update our power rankings. Posers were exposed, studs fell off and the battle for NFL supremacy is anyone's to win. Yet the playoff picture has become crystal clear since our initial rankings in week four, so with half the season complete, how many teams are actually in the hunt?

Recap: [1st Quarter Power Rankings]

2nd Quarter Power Rankings:

[Numbers in parentheses equal difference in rank from Todd: i.e (+1) equals one spot higher]


TODD                                DAN

32. Jacksonville                 Jacksonville (0)               

31. Minnesota                    Tampa Bay (-1)                 

30. Tampa Bay                   Minnesota (+1)             

29. Philadelphia                 Philadelphia (0)             

28. St. Louis                       New York Giants (-6)      

27. Oakland                       St. Louis (+1)                  

26. Houston                       Oakland (+1)                    

25. New York Jets              Houston (+1)                  

24. Buffalo                          Buffalo (0)                       

23. Miami                           Atlanta (-2)                       

22. New York Giants          Cleveland (-2)

21. Atlanta                          Washington (-2)

20. Cleveland                     Pittsburgh (-2)

19. Washington                  Arizona (-4)

18. Pittsburgh                     Miami (+5)

17. Tennessee                    New York Jets (+8)

16. Chicago                        San Diego (-3)

15. Arizona                         Baltimore (-3)

14. Dallas                           Tennessee (+3)

13. San Diego                    Carolina (-2)

12. Baltimore                      Chicago (+4)

11. Carolina                        Dallas (+3)

10. New England                Detroit (-1)

9. Detroit                             Green Bay (-5)

8. Indianapolis                    Cincinnati (-1)

7. Cincinnati                       New England (+3)

6. Kansas City                    New Orleans (-4)

5. San Francisco                Kansas City (+1)

4. Green Bay                      Indianapolis (+4)

3. Seattle                            San Francisco (+2)

2. New Orleans                  Seattle (+1)

1. Denver                           Denver (0)

Comments from the rankings:

TODD:
We're halfway through the NFL season and a lot has changed in just four weeks. There are now three distinct groups in the rankings:

- The bottom, teams ranked 32-30, are clearly terrible. I wouldn't pick the Jaguars, Vikings, or Buccaneers to beat anyone else in the league under any circumstances. I know they won't all go winless but any wins they grab will be upsets.

- The top 10 is clearly established. I know the playoffs are 12 teams, so those final two spots are still up for grabs, but the top 10 teams seem set on making it. In related news, it took me a long while to decide who was the 11th best team in the NFL. I settled on Carolina, whose defense has been amazing all year, but now their offense is final clicking.

- The rest of the league, teams ranked 11-29, are pretty darn close, as funny as it sounds. There is certainly very little separating those teams at 29,28,27 from Tennessee or Pittsburgh at 18. We actually just saw this yesterday as Oakland toppled the Steelers.

 A couple extraneous thoughts, all seemingly related to quarterbacks:

- Poor LeSean McCoy; that Philly QB situation is a MESS.
- St. Louis would be higher if Bradford hadn't gone down; their ranking is not totally reflective of their performance thus far.
- The Giants are rolling!...with two of the worst wins I have ever seen in my lifetime; but they are two wins nonetheless and that division is still up for grabs.
- Chicago is in a similar boat to St. Louis; their ranking reflects the current Cutler injury, not how they've played this season
- If the New England Patriots had a quarterback who could throw an accurate pass, there's no telling how good they could be!

Even though Kansas City has the best record in the league, and the best defense according to the numbers, I still don't trust them against the other heavy hitters. I'd take the four big NFC teams over them and still like Denver a little more. Of course, if Seattle loses tonight...


DAN:
I don't see much having changed at all in the last four weeks, besides the masses really separating themselves. The bottom of the barrel sunk lower and the top ten just punched their playoff tickets a little more firmly. Otherwise, I see four groups here. That middle pack you lumped together is actually two groups now after eight weeks, teams with hope and teams that suck.

The four groups in my rankings:

- The bottom, which extends all the way to team number 28 and your New York Giants. The teams ranked 32 to 28 all stink, are having horrific seasons, and can't be trusted to win, period. I know you are dumping on St. Louis because they lost their QB, but that's not a bad team. They belong in our next group.

- The ones that suck, these are teams ranked 27 to 21. None of these teams are making the playoffs. Their seasons are over. You placed Miami and the Jets in this area of your rankings, but both those teams still have a shot and are way better, when they are playing well, than the likes of Cleveland, Washington and Atlanta who aren't breaking .500 this season.

- The ones with hope, these are teams ranked 20 to 12. All of these teams are in the hunt and are one winning streak or losing streak away from keeping hope alive or falling into the 'suck' category. Pittsburgh may have closed their door by losing to Oakland, but something tells me not to count out the Steelers just yet. Every other team has show flashes of greatness and I still like Chicago even with Cutler side lined for several weeks.

- The top, teams in the top ten of my rankings.  And yes I realize I skipped over the Cowboys at number 11. They seem to have a hold on the NFC East by default, being better than everyone else in that division, but still managing to suck on a level that doesn't befit a top ten team.

We must both be NFL geniuses, or this season is such an open book its ridiculous, because our top ten contains the exact same teams.  We do disagree on where four teams fall. I don't like Green Bay nearly as much as you. Same goes for New Orleans, who is simply out scoring people more than the league wants to admit.  I'm also much higher on Indianapolis and New England, two teams with stellar QB play that has held things together. I think the Colts can withstand the loss of Reggie Wayne, but I do worry the Patriots have lost one too many players on defense.

[Part two - Playoffs! In or out]

NFL 1st quarter, AFC vs NFC - Part two

NFL 1st quarter, AFC vs NFC - Part two
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (10-11-13)

[Part one - NFL 1st quarter Power Rankings]



TODD:
Week five's games clearly changed some things, but at the quarter season mark there were some obvious trends forming. We both like Denver and New England as the favorites in the AFC. We both also like New Orleans and Seattle in the NFC, with Green Bay and Chicago right there as well. The big difference rests with how we feel about Indianapolis. You seem secure in their conference championship chances while I am not sure they are even a top dozen team, but am sure they will make the playoffs. The reason being, the AFC still stinks; I don't care what the numbers say!

We heard the record a week or so ago; it was everywhere. In games where AFC teams played NFC teams, the AFC was overwhelmingly crushing their peers. This went against what everyone expected prior to the year. But I say it is too soon to flip that story. The jury is still out on a number of the top AFC teams while some elites in the NFC are just getting their legs under themselves.

Seven of my top ten teams were from the NFC at the quarter mark, and that didn't even include San Francisco. Cincinnati, Miami, and the Colts...these teams still need to show me some things before I can go throw them in the top ten discussion. Indy may have done that week five with their convincing win over Seattle. That was certainly impressive. But the Dolphins and Bengals are still struggling mightily to get their respective offenses going. Perhaps I put too much stock in the high-powered offenses coming out of the NFC North, but I need a team to be able to score. What is really separating the Bengals from being the Carolina Panthers at this point other than fewer mistakes by their quarterback? They both have awesome defenses and offenses who are struggling to get the ball to their play makers. The only difference is Andy Dalton has eight total turnovers while Cam Newton has already turned the ball over... six times? Wait, so what the hell is the difference between the 3-2 Bengals and the 1-3 Panthers?

The Bengals won a close, low scoring game against an elite opponent in week five, 13-6 over New England. Carolina had that same game, but let Russell Wilson and Seattle slip away with a 12-7 victory. Both teams also lost a low scoring, close game. Cincinnati to Cleveland and Carolina to Arizona. In addition, both teams had impressive wins which ended up being less impressive after seeing how truly bad their opponent was: Cincy over Pittsburgh and Carolina over the Giants. Throw in Carolina's bye week and the only thing that separates these two teams is that late mess up against Buffalo that you touched on. Is that lone error really enough to garner Carolina terrible and Cincinnati awesome?

Of course that was one, single, cherry-picked example, but the NFC is on their way to rumbling by the AFC. I can see it now. Atlanta has been worse than people expected. So has San Fran. I expect both those teams to be around in December.

You're an AFC guy, but do you really think five of the ten best teams are from that conference? Kansas City is now 5-0 and I would STILL take a healthy Detroit Lions team over them, no question.


DAN:
Offense may rule the day in September and October, but what wins in December and through the playoffs is crushing defense and a lack of mistakes (turnovers and penalties). The AFC is leagues ahead of the NFC this season for that very simple reason. Sure, sure the NFC has high powered offenses in New Orleans, in Green Bay, in Detroit and in Atlanta, but none of those teams are beating their AFC contemporaries. Its not a coincidence that New England, Miami and the Jets all made Atlanta look silly. They are done. They can't stop anyone. New Orleans is my exception, the NFC team that will continue to get better. Otherwise its top heavy. Beyond Seattle, San Francisco, Chicago and New Orleans the rest of the conference is fresh meat for AFC opponents.

The AFC on the other hand is punching people in the face. Defense has brought Kansas City, Cleveland and the Jets back from the dead. Defense has completely masked New England's inability to move the ball on offense. And yes, Denver is putting up huge points, but its defense is why they are a juggernaut. After the Broncos, no one team stands out for me in the AFC anymore. I know its why you think they're all average. But that's where you're wrong! They are all damn good, better than anything the NFC has outside its top five.

Your Cincinnati and Carolina comparison is a bit of a joke. The Panthers consistently find ways to loose games. I don't care if they put up three great quarters week after week. They stink in the fourth and are average at best. The Bengals on the other hand have proven to be closers so far this season. They are a playoff team because the Ravens make too many mistakes and Cleveland is not quite there yet, but that's only an indication of the strength of the AFC. Our argument will come to a head this weekend when Cleveland faces Detroit. The numbers favor Detroit, it is still October and Cleveland lost its quarterback. But if Cleveland does win, can we both agree you're wrong?

There are a ton of AFC teams that are making waves, either winning with defense or offense depending on the week. I want to focus on the AFC East since its my home turf. By the way, I'm writing off the Bills now minus EJ Manuel. In the east there are three teams to be afraid of. New England, Miami and the Jets are all tough match ups for anyone in the NFC. Outside of facing the Saints, I fully expect all three teams to run the table on their NFC games this season. They are half way there. Moving beyond that division, you can't honestly tell me the Colts won't crush nine out of ten NFC opponents. They are looking more and more like a Super Bowl team now. Who is going to stop them? I'm not even sure Denver can. For me this AFC vs. NFC argument comes down to the 8-8 teams. We know both conferences have a strong top five, but take the teams ranked six through ten in the AFC and put them into the NFC... woah. The Giants wouldn't be the only winless team, that's all I'm saying.


TODD:
So if Cleveland wins, we agree I'm wrong, but if Detroit wins I don't get to be right? Typical AFC thought process. If we keep it close, that means we're better because people didn't expect it to be close. And besides, Calvin Johnson may miss another game and if that happens, all bets are off. A healthy Lions team is the one I'd take over anyone in the AFC North.

But why are we only concerned with the middle of the pack? I don't have any confidence in my 9th and 10th ranked NFC teams. They were the Panthers and Cardinals. The AFC has a better middle; I will give you that. But the NFC has more playoff-caliber teams.That is what matters after all.

Take the 49ers for example, and let's compare them to one of your precious AFC elites: the 5-0 Kansas City Chiefs. Thus far, the Chiefs have faced the Jaguars, Titans and 3/4 of the NFC East division. You're telling me San Fran wouldn't be 5-0 too with that schedule? Whereas the 49ers have already played the Packers, Seahawks, Colts, Texans and a division rival in the Rams. Through just a quarter of the season, most of a team's success comes down to their schedule and who they've played. You are too quick to react to that quarter in both directions: in favor of the AFC teams who've pounded weak opponents and against NFC teams who've struggled against tough competition.

Let's check back after week eight and see where everybody stands mid-season.


DAN:
Agreed, through merely four weeks the AFC looks like a beast. I'm not so ignorant as to anoint the Chiefs over the 49ers, but I do believe the power rankings speak to just that.

I'm very very curious to see if the teams outside the NFC top five can hold it together. Dallas and Atlanta come to mind and I would throw Detroit and the Packers in that group as well. Are they just average teams that score a lot, or can they actually compete for a championship? The AFC doesn't have this issue. The Chiefs, Dolphins and Browns are not title contenders. There is no question.

[If you missed Part one - NFL 1st quarter Power Rankings] 

NFL 1st Quarter review, the Four game story - Part one

NFL 1st Quarter review, the Four game story - Part one
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (10-7-13)



After four games of the NFL season we at Seesaw Sports lay down our power rankings and go to town on the posers and the studs. Four games don't tell you everything, but after a quarter of the NFL season everyone knows who's in first and who's in last.



1st Quarter Power Rankings

[Numbers in parentheses equal difference in rank from Todd: i.e (+1) equals one spot higher] 


TODD                                DAN

32. Jacksonville                 Jacksonville (0)
31. Oakland                       Tampa Bay (-6)
30. New York Giants          Arizona (-7)
29. Pittsburgh                    New York Giants (+1)
28. Washington                 Oakland (+3)
27. Philadelphia                Washington (+1)
26. St. Louis                      Philadelphia (+1)
25. Tampa Bay                  St. Louis (+1)
24. Minnesota                   Carolina (-10)
23. Arizona                        Pittsburgh (+6)
22. New York Jets             San Diego (-2)
21. Buffalo Bills                 Buffalo Bills (0)
20. San Diego                   Minnesota (+4)
19. Miami                          New York Jets (+3)
18. Tennessee                  Tennessee (0)
17. Cleveland                    Houston (-1)
16. Houston                       Dallas (-6)
15. Cincinnati                    Cleveland (+2)
14. Carolina                       Baltimore (-2)
13. San Francisco             Atlanta (-4)
12. Baltimore                     Miami (+7)
11. Indianapolis                 Detroit (-6)
10. Dallas                          San Francisco (+3)
9. Atlanta                           Cincinnati (+6)
8. Kansas City                   Kansas City (0)
7. Chicago                         Chicago (0)
6. Green Bay                     Green Bay (0)
5. Detroit                            New England (-3)
4. Seattle                           New Orleans (-1)
3. New Orleans                  Indianapolis (+8)
2. New England                 Seattle (+2)
1. Denver                           Denver (0)


Comments from the rankings:

TODD:
- Oy, I was not expecting this from the Giants. Antrel Rolle thinks the G-Men can run the table and finish 12-4. I am...skeptical. This team cannot block anyone, can't run the ball, can't rush the passer. It's a perfect storm of suckitude. That being said, I still have confidence in Eli and that passing offense if he can get time.

- The Steelers are terrible on offense and cannot force a turnover on defense to save its life (or its season). Roethlisberger has no help and he is no Tom Brady.

- Two struggling teams, Washington and Philadelphia, with offensive issues for very different reasons. I trust Philly on offense a bit more even though I trust their defense a bit less.

- Neither the Bills nor Jets trusts their quarterback fully. I think that Buffalo likes EJ Manuel a tad bit more than New York likes Geno Smith.

- Sorry, I'm not a believer in Miami just yet. Call me old fashioned, but I am patient with my opinions. I like San Diego's offense and Miami's defense. If they could combine those two units, that squad would be in the top 10 easy.

- Tough news for Tennessee on Jake Locker. This team is going to tumble.

- There is something off with the 49ers. Kaepernick is getting no room to run around and Frank Gore got old too fast. The lack of receiving weapons is also blatantly obvious.

- We can't be fooled by that point differential for the Colts. Look who they have played so far.

- For Atlanta, 1-3 is 1-3. You can't take those games back. But this team is still supremely talented and needs a healthy Roddy White to prove it.

- I am all in on the NFC North with Detroit, Chicago and Green Bay. These guys are awesome. I wouldn't be surprised if all three make the playoffs and we have a preseason juggernaut like the Falcons or 49ers going home.

- Defense used to win championships. Nowadays though, I'd rather have the potent offense of the Saints to the potent defense of the Seahawks.


DAN:
- I’m not nearly as high on Tampa Bay as you are. They were a mess in week one against the Jets and have been accumulating more junk ever since. The quarterback change was the end in my book.

- I don’t like the Cardinals either. Very weak.

- Similar to Tampa, I think Carolina has no idea how to win a game. I watched them blow it against Buffalo, a game they had no business losing. The announcer made a comment with four minutes to go and Carolina leading; he said now is when the Panthers find a way to lose. He was right.

- Something about the Steelers tells me they are not nearly as bad as they look. I see them as an 8-8 team when the season comes to a close.

- The opposite is true of the Cowboys. They will probably win their division, but not for lack of trying to lose it. I don’t trust them.

- Guess I like the Dolphins a lot more than you here. They managed to find swagger over the summer. I like what they are doing and each week they are moving closer to the AFC East crown as New England falls apart. As a Jets fan I hate this. Boo Dolphins.

- Much much higher on the Bengals and the Colts than you. We will get into this on Friday, but from everything I’ve seen this season, it’s the AFC with the strong teams and the NFC with only a top five and a bunch of jokes. The Colts and Bengals can beat anyone if they show up on time.

[Part two - AFC vs NFC dominance]

 

NFL Draft 2013: We're all winners Here - Part one

NFL Draft 2013: We're all Winners Here - Part one
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (4-29-13)



TODD:
You were right. The second round and into the weekend of the draft was exciting... perhaps more exciting than Thursday night. There were quarterbacks taken rapid fire, running backs not named Lacy kept getting picked, teams traded up for big names, and luckily all the offensive linemen were taken in round one so there were actually some skill position players coming off the board.

In the end, I think the Giants' draft turned out very well. They addressed every need other than linebacker. I enjoyed the Nassib pick as well. And, in my opinion, there is no better selection on draft day than taking a previously highly-touted player who's stock has dropped. Damontre Moore in round three might not pan out, but he was originally predicted as an early first round pick for a reason. It was worth the risk at pick 81 for sure.

Although things are looking good, the Giants certainly did not have the best draft out of anyone. That distinction belongs to the St. Louis Rams.

Of course, you better have a top tier draft when you have two first round picks. But not messing up with those two first round picks isn't always a given. (That was not a shot at the Jets even though it seems particularly obvious that it hints at such a diss.) The Rams came into this draft needing tons of help on offense and in the defensive backfield. They addressed need number one by trading up for Tavon Austin, the best wide receiver in the draft. To build on a strength, they also selected Austin's teammate Stedman Bailey. If Sam Bradford weren't happy enough, the Rams added Barrett Jones up front and a late-round running back.

On the other side of the ball, St. Louis nabbed Alec Ogletree, the best inside linebacker in this draft. And they got him way down at pick number 30. Safety TJ McDonald was then selected in round three to help sure up the defensive backs. This team is by no means a finished product, but with help on both sides of the ball, the NFC West is not guaranteed to be just a two team race anymore.

I also liked what Green Bay and Tennessee did during the draft. Who do you think had the best draft though? We know the answer is not the Jets.


DAN:
I'm hesitant to name an out right winner when so much is unknown, but our New York teams definitely hit the mark in my opinion. I'm going to smoothly agree with your Giants and Rams analysis. Both teams filled major holes and should rebound nicely next season. But the meat of the draft and of today is my NewYork Jets. They may not have had the best draft, but they did a great job overall. Woo! More relevancy.

The Jets nailed this draft for me the fan. Not only did they fill two major defensive holes. They replaced Revis as best as anyone could hope for and added a pash rusher. Not only did they add depth to a paper thin offensive line and trade for a proven running back. Both moves are pretty sweet. The Jets stole top ten level talent in the second round by drafting Geno Smith at quarterback. I was shocked when he didn't go in the first round. I was nearly as surprised to see Geno fall to the Jets in round two as I was for Milliner to fall to them in round one. And today they cleared all the junk out of the trunk by releasing Tim Tebow. If Mark Sanchez gets released next week we'll have a clean sweep! Realistically the Jets will wait to see how David Garrard's health pans out, but this team is making moves.

I couldn't have asked for more. The Jets cleaned out the proverbial house of as much of last year's team as possible. Thank you!

The rest of the league mostly improved on paper, but not to poke a sleeping giant, did the Patriots forget to show up? This could prove to be the AFC East's biggest win of the weekend.

[Part two - Losers, there are Always Losers]

NFL Draft 2013: Part Four - Day one Gone Wrong

NFL Draft 2013: Part Four - Day one Gone Wrong
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (4-26-13)

[Part One - NY Jets, Revis and the Draft]
[Part Two - NY Jets picks and Giants preview]
[Part Three - NY Giants analysis & Draft day predictions]



Actual NY Jets and Giants picks:

NY Jets: Dee Milliner (DB, Alabama) and Sheldon Richardson (DT, Missouri)
NY Giants: Justin Pugh (OT, Syracuse)


Seesaw Sports Predictions:

- Jets select Dee Milliner with the ninth pick (Money in the bank!)
- Giants thin at offensive line but even thinner at linebacker
- Three quarterbacks chosen in first round (Umm.... excuse us a moment)
- Tebow gets traded during the draft (It could still happen!)
- Cleveland botches their first round pick (Barkevious Mingo, DE, practical)
- Linebackers plummet (Three were selected, hardly plummeting)
- Tight ends selected equals Wide receivers selected (Three WR to one TE)
- Mel Kiper's hair looks tremendous (Duh)



TODD:
Well, we pretty much botched all our predictions but the more important point here is this: has the NFL draft gone the way of the NFL playoffs; is it even possible to predict this shit anymore?? Where most things in other sports are becoming more transparent and more sensible with all the information and statistics we now have at our disposal, it seems the NFL is somehow immune to this development.

I mean, right off the bat, the number one overall pick was a semi-surprise. Everyone knew Kansas City was going to select Luke Joeckel number one. I think they may have taken Fisher instead simply to stick it to mock drafters. Why else would they take someone who plays the same position but isn't quite as good?

From there, things were going okay, with some interesting trades sprinkled in, until Buffalo picked at 18. Everyone figured the Bills would take a quarterback in round one. We thought it would happen with the eighth pick. Instead, they traded back knowing they would still get their man and they were right because their man, EJ Manuel, was not expected to be taken by anybody until the weekend.

I'm fine with what the Giants did even though I was really hoping Jarvis Jones was going to fall to them; you must be very happy with how things played out for the Jets, especially getting their Revis-replacement. But overall, is the NFL draft about misinformation more than any other event in all of sports? Do teams purposely release info to confuse us (and opponents)? This seems to be the smartest thing a GM could do but it also seems to go against every reason that Twitter and the internet and Adam Schefter exist.


DAN:
Our Jets and Giants breakdowns were solid across the board. We mixed in our desires with actual team needs and its actually refreshing that team needs won out mostly. I'm thrilled that Milliner fell to the Jets at nine. He is a solid defensive back and will be mentored by one of the best in the game, Cromartie. As for the defensive line selection, I can't argue with striving to increase the Jets poor sack and quarterback pressure numbers from last season. They got crushed up front all year long. If the team goes strong offense in rounds two and three I'm happy. Otherwise, ignoring one of the many offensive linemen in the first round could prove costly for the Jets.

On the Giants front you nailed the glaring need at offensive line, which they promptly filled. For your sake I hope they go linebacker in round two, but that might be a reach at this point.

Overall round one was a snooze fest. Teams are getting smart and with the linemen being the cream of this draft's crop, teams snatched them up. It made for bad television however. To your point, I think much of the misinformation we get leading up to the draft is designed to build buzz. The NFL is the king of buzz, king of headlines and king of the media. They turned their draft into a three day holiday practically, and the build up of buzz is integral to this. They must be licking their chops right now heading into the second round. The first round is always gold for television ratings, no matter who is selected. We got the EJ Manuel pick which was exciting and kind of surprising. After hearing him on ESPN this week I thought he was a true stud, smart and centered. But now day two is upon us and the treasure trove of stud players is enormous. All the 'name' talent who were reaches in round one are steals in round two and the NFL is left with a tremendously exciting second day of coverage. Manti and Geno are still around, not to mention all the running backs and tight ends on the board.

The NFL deserves some applause, orchestrating yet again another exciting day of draft coverage. Pause for a nice slow golf clap. Now throw in the young boy suffering with a terminal illness who came up and announced his favorite team's pick, the Saints, and we can up our applause to a full on clap. Thanks NFL for making April fun.

Now if only the Jets would make things fun and actually add some talent to our division three level offense. Thanks guys!

[Part One - NY Jets, Revis and the Draft]

[Part Two - NY Jets picks and Giants preview]

[Part Three - NY Giants analysis & Draft day predictions]

NFL Draft 2013: Part Three - NY Giants analysis & Draft day Predictions

NFL Draft 2013: Part Three - NY Giants analysis & Draft day Predictions
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (4-22-13)

[Part One - NY Jets preview, Revis trade & the Draft]
[Part Two - NY Jets picks & NY Giants preview]



TODD:
The biggest gaping hole for Big Blue is probably defensive back. The linebacking corp is weaker as a unit but linebackers are easier to find and plug in. However, good DB's are scarce and so integral to a team's success. The Giants lost Kenny Phillips this off-season; Corey Webster, their best corner, has been awful for going on two years and it may be that he simply lost a step, meaning he will continue to be terrible; youngsters Prince Amukamara and Jayron Hosley may not be ready to start and there is little depth behind that trio. Especially with the way the defensive front took a step back in their rushing skills last season, the defensive backfield is as important and as weak as ever.

A trade at this point seems unlikely, although I hear you guys have a solid corner you are dangling to the trade sharks. Wouldn't that be fun? The Jets giving up one of their franchise's best players ever to their big brothers. But Revis is a Buccaneer now and the Giants are right up against the cap and have little room to make a big splash.

Rebuilding is certainly not an option with this team, but it is also not necessary at all. We are not that far away. Last year was a step back but a small one. Some things went wrong, some players underachieved while others got hurt; and the rest of the division is definitely tough. But with a rebound from the passing game and the pass rush (two areas that played well below expectations in 2012 but are strengths of the team), the Giants could be the cream of the NFC East again.

One player to keep an eye on is slot receiver Rueben Randle. He is taking over third receiver responsibilities for the departed Domenik Hixon and should get a ton of playing time this season. Randle may also get a shot at returning punts or kicks (or both). His quickness and speed will be a key compliment to the precise catching/route running of Cruz and the power and athleticism of Hakeem Nicks. At the end of the year, Rueben Randle may be the biggest reason New York's passing game came back to form in 2013.


DAN:
The Giants better draft a speedy defensive end and a speedy defensive back or two, otherwise they will never catch RG3 of the Redskins or whomever the Eagles trot out at QB. You know that dude will be a runner with Chip Kelly at the helm. If the Giants were in any other city, then a trade with the Jets would be a possibility. But as long as they share a stadium, Revis will never be dealt to big blue. Fireman Ed already retired as the NY Jets super fan, but if Revis is a Giant the stadium may be empty week one out of protest. Now that he's a Buc we can lay that argument to bed.

So it seems you feel good about your Giants. If you personally aren't targeting anyone as a guy you hope they draft, then let's jump into the good stuff. Draft day predictions, and not the run of the mill, anyone can come up with selections of the other NFL teams on the board. That's like hitting the snooze button on this article. I'm talking BIG trades, major shockers and men sitting idly in the green room for hours being forced to answer the uncomfortable question of why they have yet to be drafted. For the uninformed, the green room is where the prospective top twenty talent sit and wait to be selected. This year in particular, every quarterback in that room will be on edge. Do they go early or fall back to the second round, forced to return to the green room yet again on day two?

Three Seesaw predictions for Draft Day 2013:

1. Three quarterbacks will be selected in the first round

Explanation - There are too many teams in desperate need of an upgrade at the game's most important position. I know the GM's are claiming they've gotten smarter, and this year's crop of quarterbacks is lacking, but owners want to sell tickets and the hope of a new franchise man under center does just that.

2. Tim Tebow gets dealt during the draft

Explanation - If the Jets have shown us anything, its that they will make the move that provides the splashiest headline. Dealing Tebow during the draft will be the ONLY headline on Friday morning, heading into day two, and the Jets will steal the nation's attention for off the field hijinks once again.

3. The Cleveland Browns botch their first round pick, number six overall

Explanation - None necessary. Its Cleveland.


TODD:
Your quarterback prediction is sound and impossible to argue with. Zero quarterbacks deserve first round selections, but that seems to never matter. The position is just too important for teams not to take flyers on guys and hope they turn into something. I would rather see a team take a better player with their first pick and stab at a mid-round QB like Seattle did last year. The chances of hitting another Russell Wilson though seem remote. Tyler Bray and Mike Glennon are two guys to keep an eye on. They both have tremendous size and tangibles, but struggled with more acute aspects of their game in college... kind of like the anti-Russell Wilson to be honest. They should deliver great value to a team in the middle rounds even if a Wilson-like onslaught of the league is unlikely in year one.

I won't even address your second prediction since, to me at least, the trading of a backup is not newsworthy.

It is funny you threw in your third prediction since I believe it will be entirely linked to your first. The Browns will botch their first round pick because they will take a quarterback who is undeserving of that slot, kind of like they did last year.

My predictions for the 2013 NFL Draft:

1. Linebackers will plummet

Explanation - Jarvis Jones, one of the best half dozen defensive players in the nation during the 2012 season, is tumbling down draft boards because of his injury concerns and terrible combine numbers. Alec Ogletree is falling for off-field and character concerns. Manti Te'o is dropping for both of these reasons. According to Scouts Inc.'s Big Board, the three backers are all ranked between 13th and 24th overall. I see Ogletree dropping to the very end of that span, Jones dropping out of it and Te'o falling out of the first day completely. Not only are linebackers routinely passed over in drafts, but these three specifically have too many questions attached to them.

2. As many tight ends will be taken in the first round as wide receivers

Explanation - The wide receiver crop this year is solid even if there is no top tier, Calvin Johnson type available. This is more a declaration of how important the tight end position is becoming in the NFL. Teams need athletic guys who can create mismatches. This year's draft has two guys, Tyler Eifert and Zach Ertz, who will most certainly be taken in the top 32 picks. I see only two wide receivers going in the same span.

3. Mel Kiper's hair will look tremendous

Explanation - It always does.

[Part Four - Day one Gone Wrong]

[Part One - NY Jets preview, Revis trade & the Draft]

[Part Two - NY Jets picks & NY Giants preview]

NFL Draft 2013: Part Two - NY Jets picks & Giants preview

NFL Draft 2013: Part Two - NY Jets picks & Giants preview
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (4-19-13)

[Part One - NY Jets preview & Darrelle Revis]



DAN:
I don't need your pretend empathy. The Giants have won too much for you to ever understand what its like for your favorite football team to have never won a championship in your lifetime. The Jets won Superbowl III and I'm excited for the day when that no longer matters so much. Here's to the future and getting some good value for Revis!

Let's assume the Jets make the trade I proposed, they deal Revis and a pick for three pics and a player. Its better than letting him walk and could lead to some heavy hitters in the draft. The Bucs have high pics this year, so there 2013 second round pick is a good one. I'd venture to say that their first round pick next season will be top fifteen, so both are looking good. Here's who I want with the 9th pick in 2013 and the Jets and Bucs second rounders in 2013. I know Rex Ryan loves defense and could use some speed in the linebacking core, but the offense was hugely underwhelming last season and should be the focus heading into the draft, with one BIG exception.

9th pick: Mel Kiper has Dee Milliner, CB from Alabama, going at number five. If he's still available when the Jets are on the board, I want them to pick him with the 9th pick. This is not inconceivable and would provide a cornerback for the future to try and replace the loss of Revis. Plus they have Cromartie to teach the kid the ropes. If Milliner is gone, then I want Lane Johnson, OT from Oklahoma. Kiper has him at eleven, but the Jets couldn't protect a fly let alone Sanchez last season. They need to bolster their offensive line and Johnson is their man.

2nd round pics: Lumping together the Jets own second round pick and the one from the Bucs, I go strong offense here. If Eddie Lacy, RB Alabama, drops to them in the early second round then the Jets should grab him faster than a kid on Christmas. Kiper has him at 26th in the first round, but we shall see. Then, with the Bucs pic I want to go quarterback. I think Landry Jones, QB from Oklahoma, is a great grab in the mid second round. His TD/INT ratio is solid, with a lot of yards to show for himself. Also, at 6'4" and 218 he can withstand the beating he's sure to get as quarterback of the Jets... We Jets fans are self deprecating okay? Geez.

I would love to tell you about next year's draft as well, but that's a little out there for me. What's your take on the situation and the Jets' draft needs? And more importantly, who are your Giants targeting? They underachieved last season too and have some holes to fill now.


TODD:
I would agree that Milliner would be a very nice selection at ninth overall, especially with the circular nature of him replacing the star they just shipped out of town. However, I also agree it is (not inconceivable but) unlikely he will be there. There are so many talented pass rushers available at the top of this draft. Although you know better than me whether the Jets would sorely regret passing on some offensive line help instead of improving at defensive end. If o-line is the choice, Eric Fisher, Lane Johnson or Jonathan Cooper seem like nice options. If the Jets can come away with either the best guard on the board or one of the top three tackles, they should be pleased.

As far as the second round goes, this is where I am no longer with you. I have seen too many teams make mistakes by grabbing a running back early. They are too volatile, too interchangeable and too dependent on the team around them. There are going to be backs drafted well after Eddie Lacy who have a better career than him, mark it down. And I understand the desire to grab a quarterback any chance you get. A team without a reliable QB might as well be taking the season off. But Landry Jones is not the answer. We may see half a dozen quarterbacks get taken in the second round, each with certain strengths and weaknesses. I feel like there are better upside plays than taking Jones and the Jets may even be better off helping the rest of their roster and waiting another season on finding that future behind center.

The Giants are certainly lucky in that respect. They do not have to worry about filling the quarterback position. What we do have to fill though, is almost everything else. Offensive line is thin, wide receiver is in dire straits if Victor Cruz does not return, defensive line lost a number of pieces, the linebacking shelf is as empty as ever and the defensive backfield could use some work. What else is left? Oh, we also might need a running back to split carries with David Wilson.

In recent years, the Giants have done very well for themselves drafting the best player available when their turn is up. I have confidence in the front office to continue this trend, especially with how many places are areas of need this off-season. The only thing I'll say is that I hope they finally draft a linebacker pretty early. Year after year the Giants choose to push linebacker to a secondary concern, as if it isn't an important spot. And while the position can be filled by players who are not elite athletes and a linebacker's success may hinge greatly on who is playing in front of him, it is still frustrating to see the Giants' list of starting linebackers week one of each new season. It never looks pretty.


DAN:
I'd be thrilled if the Jets went o-line in the first round, but if Rex Ryan has a say about it they probably go the pass rushing route and grab a speedy defensive end. Your Giants could learn a thing or two in that respect as they definitely need to bolster the defense. Assuming Victor Cruz re-signs, then Eli Manning to Cruz can win you some games, but the defense will loose a bunch if something isn't done. You noted a ton of holes for the Giants. What's the biggest gaping hole and can it be filled via the draft? Is it the linebackers, and if the draft class won't cut it, do the Giants look to trade in order to return to form this season.

The Giants, unlike the Jets, are in the interesting position of having taken a step back while in their franchise quarterback's prime. Rebuilding is not an option here, yet no QB can compensate for all a team's shortfalls. The Giants front office is outstanding and has never let the fans down in Eli's career, so am I missing something? Any sneaky backup players to watch this season? A free agent you wish they'd grab? I'm fairly confident the Giants compete for the top spot in the NFC East again this season, yet I'm at a loss for how they start the year as a better team then the Redskins or Cowboys.

[Part Three - NY Giants analysis & Draft day Predictions] 
[Part Four - Day one Gone Wrong]

[Part One - NY Jets preview & Darelle Revis]

More Fallout - NFL Free Agency Part Two

More Fallout - NFL Free Agency Part Two
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (3-29-13)

[Part One - The Fallout from NFL Free Agency begins]

TODD:

The interesting thing about how this free agency period has played out is what is happening to veterans who are still usable players. In years past, these guys would never have been released, let alone be wallowing in purgatory with no one wanting to offer more than a one year deal. But since the cap did not increase very much and all those old contracts which were agreed upon during different times (huge cap increases and huge rookie deals to boot) are getting expensive, teams are running out of room. Jake Long's second contract was for less money than his first. Has that ever happened for a perennial pro bowler before? Players who would normally return for public relations' sake (Ed Reed, James Harrison, Dwight Freeney, Brian Urlacher) are being let go because loyalty is not affordable anymore.

The longer this plays out, the cheaper players will become. In a few weeks time, we may look back at that Mike Wallace contract and scratch our heads at why Miami gave him $30 million guaranteed or why teams jumped on the Paul Krugers and Dashon Goldsons when they could have had someone who was 80% the player for 20% the price.

DAN:

Miami knew it had to overpay for Mike Wallace. They bought youth, and as you said, no one is paying for old age (veteran leadership) this off season. I don't think its fair to lump all of those veterans together though. And since when did Public Relations (PR) have any bearing on winning? Its all fine and dandy to have great PR, but no one will care or watch your team if they suck. Winning sells in life and the NFL. Winning comes with its own great PR and in the case of Ed Reed, the Ravens capitalized on the optimal time to cut ties with a diminishing return. They're the champs and have all the PR they need. On the flip side, James Harrison is a beast and the Steelers will regret letting him go. Same for Brian Urlacher, the Bears will regret that decision. He has a TON to prove and will do so admirably. I can't say the same for Dwight Freeney. He'll do well, but cutting him isn't the end of the world for the Colts.

What has shocked me is how quickly teams are snatching up the skill position players who were let go. Who needs Brian Urlacher anyways, lets go get ourselves a backup running back. The Titans signed Shonn Greene. Thanks for taking him off our hands! The Steelers signed Plaxico Burress. That won't end in good PR. What's appealing about these guys? And why is everyone ripping the teams who are letting them go? This brings me to the Jets. I am going to be the first, and possibly only, person to applaud their off season so far.

The New York Jets sucked last year. They sucked the year before too, but had the nice PR buzz of back to back AFC title games to cover up the smell. So what do you do with a crappy team? You tear it down and wave goodbye, piece by piece. I applaud their efforts to this end so far. Shonn Greene was an above average running back, but uninspired on the Jets. This team needs speed in the backfield and he was not the man for that job. They let countless other 'veterans' walk out the door and brought in a key veteran at quarterback, their black eye of a position. David Garrard has a lot to prove, so who better to spark Mark Sanchez and Tim Tebow into proving their own value. One of them is bound to recapture their past potential. I understand your skepticism, but with the ninth pick in the draft the Jets are positioning themselves for future success.

Now back to the league at large. There is always turnover year to year, but until the draft happens in April, I'm not ready to crown anyone the next great team to go from worst to first. Teams like the Cowboys, usually loud this time of year, have been surprisingly quiet. What are you planning Jerry? This thing is just getting started.

TODD:

Free agency is indeed just getting started. There are still dozens of players available who can make a difference for a team on the threshold of the playoffs. But haven't we learned anything about this league? Teams make 'The Leap' for no reason whatsoever. The off-season winners rarely translate, like Philadelphia of recent fame. People's favorite sleepers do not materialize; hello Carolina. And big leaps in wins are generated almost arbitrarily based on who stays healthiest and gets the best play from their quarterback.

Even more so than free agency, the draft does a good job of filling us in on who will make strides towards greatness. The problem is that we do not find out who wins a draft until years later. The only thing made immediately evident is when teams mess up, like Cleveland last season. Kansas City this year has a chance to make a pretty nice leap towards playoff contention. We won't find out if the draft helped them until much later, but we might know right away whether they screwed it up and set themselves back a season or two.

DAN:

You're ability to abstain from having any real opinion here is impressive. I agree that Free Agency is mostly hype and while you choose to ignore it, I see it in reverse. The GREAT free agent signings are truly the ones you mentioned, the ones that don't make headlines, because offensive and defensive lines win championships. The signings that make the headlines should be viewed in reverse. Name me one big free agent signing that pushed a team to a level they weren't already at. Do it. I dare you!

There is always the exception, but the rule here is that off season spending, unlike in basketball and baseball where one or two guys can swing a division, is just for fun. If I was a betting man, I'd bet against the big spenders. Hence my view of the Dolphins and Titans. Neither team was good last year, both average at best. Yet now they've made a leap? Did they get a new coach that I'm unaware of? How about a new quarterback? No. Then no leap for you.

Final fallout for me from this free agency frenzy, the NFC East has been unbelievably quiet. I know I said it earlier, but all the teams were good last season and a key play-maker would help any one of them. The Giants resigned a few guys and are struggling to resign a few more, the Cowboys resigned a few guys too, but keeping your existing talent is hardly a headline. What gives? This division is glam and slam, at least it use to be. Come on Jerry, don't let Dez Bryant have all the headlines!


TODD:
One big free agent signing pushed a team over the top just last season. The Seattle Seahawks signed quarterback Matt Flynn to a huge, new contract, after seeing him have just one impressive start at the end of the prior year. This certainty at the QB position allowed Seattle to then draft a building-block signal-caller in the middle rounds of the NFL draft, someone they knew would not need to start right out of the gate. This man, Russell Wilson, then went to start right out of the gate of course and brought Seattle to the playoffs. Without the Matt Flynn signing, Seattle would have felt the need to draft a quarterback earlier, one they thought could start week one. Instead, they waited to get the man they wanted for the future and he...started week one...okay yeah this is a lackluster example. Big name free agent signings NEVER work out! That's why I said it is pointless to make team predictions off of March movement.

I disagree about the NFC East though. Sure this division is not the cream of the crop it has been in years past. The Eagles struggled mightily; the Cowboys and Giants both took steps back. But just because this division is not making headlines doesn't mean they aren't making moves.

The Redskins have been very quiet this month, but their team rests on the health of their young quarterback. And they cut DeAngelo Hall, which is probably a bigger addition by subtraction than any signing could have been.

The Cowboys made some under-the-radar moves, which is a good thing for them. Being on the ESPN.com front page doesn't directly translate to wins, as Jerry Jones is finding out. Bringing in players like Ernie Sims, Justin Durant and Will Allen on short-term, low-risk contracts is a net positive for Jerry's World.

Philadelphia made a boatload of changes this off-season. They let a number of talented players who underachieved for them go: Cullen Jenkins, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Nnamdi Asomugha. Meanwhile, they added more pieces than they lost with the additions of versatile back James Casey, Patrick Chung, Kenny Phillips and Cary Williams in the defensive backfield, and Connor Barwin in the linebacking corp. The Eagles have already had a very active off-season before the draft has even taken place.

And the New York Giants have made many smart moves, as GM Jerry Reese has become known for. They had to release a bevvy of useful players because of cap reasoning. It would have been nice to bring back Chris Canty, Osi Umenyiora, Michael Boley, Martellus Bennett and others. However, they simply could not afford to. The Giants ended up having over 20 players become free agents. To overcome the losses, the front office did their homework to acquire cheaper options who should contribute. With the likes of Dan Connor and Brandon Myers being added to fill gaping holes as well as the Giants bringing back key players on the offensive line, the team is in great shape as long as Victor Cruz does not get scooped up by another team as a restricted free agent.

Sure these weren't the most newsworthy moves. But as we've said, the moves that were making news were stupid. There is no football league where a Shonn Greene signing should be worth mentioning. Nothing against him, but he kind of sucks at being an NFL-caliber starting tailback.

[Part One - The Fallout from NFL Free Agency begins]