Masahiro Tanaka and Fantasy Baseball 2014 - part two

Masahiro Tanaka and Fantasy Baseball 2014 - part two

by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (2-7-14)

[Part one - Mike freaking Trout]

[Starting next week Seesaw Sports will be moving to Buzzchomp - You'll find posts both here and there for a week or two as we transition our readers. Thanks!]



TODD:
There is certainly no arguing that Andrew McCutchen or Freddie Freeman feel like safer picks than elite starters from last year like Scherzer and Sanchez. That is always a given; batters are safer. However, the point of the theory was that if you were able to grab the top starting pitchers, you'd be okay if one or two missed because your lineup would still be in fine shape. The overall dominance of Mike Trout across all scoring categories would allow for "fill-in" batters later on.

It would be a less comfortable way of drafting. There is no doubt about that. I guess it would be hard to pull the trigger on the likes of Felix Hernandez and Cliff Lee and Stephen Strasburg when so many other players seem much safer and reliable in those early rounds.

Speaking of questionable pitchers, where are you taking Masahiro Tanaka this season in fantasy? He will not technically be the New York Yankees' ace, but he will be in spirit. Or they at least need him to be. So is he an ace fantasy pitcher? He doesn't appear to be the strikeout maven that Yu Darvish is. And the possibility exists that he will bomb completely in the major leagues. So where would you take him and at what point is he too rich for your blood and you know he won't be appearing on any of your fantasy teams?


DAN:
I'm all for drafting uncomfortably, but pinning down a draft strategy that requires you to practically dislike your first four or five picks because of uncertainty alone feels wrong. I forced myself last season to not draft any pitching early. The jury is out on whether it was a successful strategy or not, but it was really hard. Doing the opposite feels nearly impossible, but with a player like Mike freaking Trout, its not completely in left field. (Did you enjoy my corny baseball pun? Did asking you about it and pointing it out completely ruin the joke? Was it already ruined from the start?)

I love that you brought up Mr. Tanaka. The newest addition to the Yankees' starting rotation is a much safer pick in my opinion than Yu Darvish was. The main reason here, when Darvish came up the Rangers were good, but not a team that won in spite of its pitching. The Yankees have been a team, for the last few seasons, that wins games in spite of its pitching. Last year was a bit more balanced, but overall their lineup has compensated for off nights by the pitching staff. Hence the consistent high win totals. So even if he is an average pitcher, a la Ivan Nova, he will get victories and do well in several statistical categories.

For some perspective, in an auction league I paid $17 for Yu Darvish in his rookie season. I thought he would be damn good and was right on the money. I wasn't going to pay higher than $22 for him, he was unproven, but he definitely warranted a solid bid with all his upside. So where does that leave Masahiro Tanaka? He has the potential to be a great number two for the Yankees and an ace on many other teams. I don't see him surpassing CC Sabathia or even Pineda's ceiling with New York, but that only improves his fantasy value. If he's the number two or three pitcher, he'll be facing other team's two and three guys. That's great news for your fantasy wins total. I think I've finally gotten around to a real answer for your question.

In a snake draft (obligatory Booo from a big fan of auctions) I would take Tanaka anywhere in round seven and below. He is not a top five pick, but snatching him in the seventh round before anyone else does seems warranted. I love the consistency and upside of Japanese pitchers and its a risk well worth taking. In an auction draft (obligatory cheers) I'd pay up to $15 bucks for him, maybe a little higher. I don't love him like I did Yu Darvish, but he is a Yankee. The mid level pitchers go in the twenty dollar range, so reaching for a rookie at fifteen bucks seems solid to me. I'd be shocked if I had to pay that much, but he's a big name and they come at a price.


TODD:
Chasing wins in fantasy baseball is a flawed and dangerous tactic. There is little correlation between a team a pitcher plays for and his ability to grab a win. There is also an even lower connection between a pitcher being great and his ability to be elite in the wins category. There is just too much out of his control.

The stat that is easily predictable is strikeouts. And with Tanaka, his strikeout potential seems to be considerably lower than Darvish. With that said, I believe your estimate is still low!

Being a big-time news story, playing for the Yankees and all the rest, Tanaka is incredibly hyped up. Although he is coming over as a worse prospect than Darvish was according to scouts, he may be a bigger deal. I can see him going earlier in snake drafts than you mentioned and for more dough in auctions. Of course, I'm with you. I'll stay away from Tanaka in all leagues unless he becomes a bargain...which won't happen. I would much rather get my hands on a known commodity at that price and take a chance on someone cheaper later in the draft.

[If you missed Part one - Mike freaking Trout]

Mike freaking Trout and Fantasy Baseball 2014 - part one

Mike Freaking Trout and Fantasy Baseball 2014 - part one
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (2-3-14)


[Seesaw Sports will soon be moving to Buzzchomp - stay tuned - you won't miss a beat]



TODD:
Some reputable sites around the web have begun to open up their fantasy baseball leagues for the 2014 season this week.

First of all... Yeah!!!!!!!!!!

Secondly, a small piece of information has come to my attention in regards to this news. The information is specifically the projections for Angels outfielder Mike Trout during the 2014 season.

In normal fantasy baseball leagues, there are five scoring categories: runs, home runs, RBI, steals and batting average. More advanced leagues often include on-base percentage as well. In reference to those six categories, an elite hitter usually excels in three or four.

A player like Miguel Cabrera (the nearly unanimous number two player in fantasy this season) is a great performer in five of the six. He will put up elite numbers in runs, HRs, RBI, BA and OBP. The only category in which he offers little to no production is steals. This is fine considering his other skills.

However, in terms of six-category production, there are very few men who reach that point. Some guys will give a little production in all six. Others will be serviceable in four and average in two, or some combination therein. Only one man though is a legit threat to lead the league in any or all six of those categories: Mike Trout, the clear number one player in fantasy baseball.

Forgetting even 2014 projections, Trout's career numbers in each category look something like this rounded for one season: 115 runs, 28 HRs, 90 RBI, 40 steals, .325 BA and .410 OBP. In other words, Trout is amazing in EVERYTHING. And those figures are just a rough estimate based off his two full seasons in the majors. Imagine if he continues to get better...

This is, eventually, bringing me to my point. Most fantasy baseball owners draft hitters early and often. Pitching is less predictable and vacillates more. Thus, it makes logical sense to grab the sure things at the plate in the early rounds and load up on pitchers later on, hoping that a few have good seasons.

If, however, you have the first pick and draft Mike Trout, should this theory change?

Rather than load up on hitters early, if you are able to take Trout first and then grab four or five of the top dozen starting pitchers in baseball, can't you fill out a lineup of hitters afterwards? There won't be many multi-category performers left in the middle rounds, but there will be one and two-skill guys available. Guys like Everth Cabrera (runs and steals) or Mark Trumbo (HRs and RBI) don't produce across the board, but they excel in certain aspects of the game.

Is Trout enough to swing an entire draft process? If I get the first pick, I may be enticed enough to find out.


DAN:
I have to first mention that it's wonderful to immediately look towards the baseball season the second after the NFL season so abruptly ends. Bring on baseball!

Please oh please waffle over this decision just a bit longer. It will only put me in a better position to finally defeat you and your fantasy baseball genius brain, or Geno as like to call it. If you are lucky enough to get the first pick in the fantasy baseball draft then you better select Mike freaking Trout. On a side note, its kind of disrespectful of you to not use his full name. Its Mike freaking Trout, who you better pick first or be doomed to lose.

Any who, I'm in the camp of people who have learned the hard way, through experience, that no matter how great you think you've done at drafting pitching, you didn't do a good job. Go right ahead, draft Mike freaking Trout and then load up on four or five of the top dozen pitchers with your next five picks. You know what will inevitably happen? Two or three of those five "top" pitchers will be completely mediocre. Sure, you'll get two who are very strong, maybe even dominant. And if you're very lucky, one will even be a top three pitcher. But most likely those "top" five pitchers will be slightly above average. Is that how we win in fantasy baseball? By drafting a team of slightly above average players to accompany the best player in the league?

Well we both know that the answer there is NO. You're playing mind games aren't you? Trying to warp my thinking, make me go against the cardinal knowledge of the game and rely on last season's pitching statistics to skew my hardened draft knowledge. Well sir, I'm calling you out. For shame.

I'd honestly like to believe that last season's top pitchers will once again perform at a high level. But there is too much history over the last five MLB seasons to ignore; it's simply not the truth. Pitchers rarely dominate year to year. They can still win games, but they don't dominate fantasy statistical categories. There are a few exceptions, a la Clayton Kershaw, but sit there and tell me with a straight face that you know Max Scherzer or Anibal Sanchez are going to have great seasons once again. I'm putting my money on Andrew McCutchen and Freddie Freeman thank you very much.

[Part two - Masahiro Tanaka]

MLB season recap: Gloating & Awards - Part one

MLB season recap: Gloating & Awards - Part one
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (9-30-13)



DAN:
So the MLB season is in the books and its been a fun and wild ride. I feel its appropriate to dredge up the past a bit and remind you of our World Series predictions we made way back during the first week of January. This will be fun, mostly for me!

You predicted, and I quote: "The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim will be back in the series on the backs of their loaded lineup and sterling pitching to face the Cincinnati Reds."

The Reds are in the playoffs, but how do you feel about your picks? You had the Angels winning in six games. I'm sorry, well no I'm not, but that pick looks really really bad in hindsight. You also stuck by the Angles in May and picked them to make the playoffs instead of the Dodgers, when both teams were stinking it up.

Now for my own prediction. "I'd say the Braves face the Rays in the World Series. The team with the healthiest pitching wins... Atlanta."

Well, well, both teams are in the playoffs (as of today the Rays are in the playoff play-in game so close enough for now). Win for me! I also nailed the Dodgers bouncing back and the Indians being this season's Pirates. We were both way off on the Red Sox, but who cares. Enough of my gloating, let's lay down some season awards.

If I could take a team's record out of the equation, then I would give the AL MVP to Mike Trout, but I can't. Miguel Cabrera wins it, with Detroit winning their division yet again. As for the AL Cy Young award... its goes to Max Scherzer because someone has to win it.

The National League weaves a very different web. The NL MVP has no clear cut winner in my book, so I'm leaning towards Jay Bruce with the Reds in the playoffs. I'm also going Kershaw for Cy Young winner. That one's a pretty easy pick.

What do you got?


TODD:
Hmmm.

Well, I do still like the Reds. They have one of the strongest teams, top to bottom, in the league. As for the Angels selection, I can only assume that I was aiming for some sort of reverse jinx to remove one of the Yankees' top competitors...and it worked like a charm! You're welcome. The Angels pitching was horrid all year and their big bats flamed out masterfully, with the exception of your boy Mike Trout.

As for the Dodgers, I'm still not sure how they finished the year so well. I guess their two-man rotation got a huge lift from Hyun-Jin Ryu, who was amazing all year. Forget Yasiel Puig; Ryu was probably the Dodgers best rookie this season. And the bullpen was good even though Brandon League threw over 50 innings while sporting a 5.40 ERA and 1.56 WHIP. The lineup, on the other hand, is pretty inexplicable. Three, count em, three of the Dodgers four best hitters (according to offensive WAR) had comeback seasons for the ages. Hanley Ramirez was their best batter, by a lot, and the majority of fans thought his career was over. The same goes for Adrian Gonzalez. And Andre Either somehow brought himself from a future fourth or fifth outfielder to a three-win player who hit 30 doubles and was serviceable everyday.

Overall, this team's success still doesn't make sense. Matt Kemp had fewer than 300 at-bats; Hanley had barely over 300 ABs and still accumulated more than 5 wins above replacement. Hell, Zack Greinke was ninth on the team in offensive WAR. Yes, OFFENSIVE WAR, starting pitcher Zack Greinke, who had all of 56 at-bats this season. It's astonishing.

All that being said, I see the Dodgers as the most likely team to lose their first round series but we'll get to playoff predictions later in the week. As for regular season awards:

I think you have it backwards in the AL. I think Mike Trout should, and does, take home the MVP this season. He could have gotten it last year, and would have if Cabrera fell short in one of the triple crown categories. Well, this year Cabrera has been outstanding but he's been banged up much of the month of September. And really, the way these things work, how can the voters disregard Trout two years in a row with the seasons he's had? He is just as good of a hitter as Cabrera in nearly ever category, with the exception of the home run power, but blows Miggy away on the base paths and on defense. Everyone knows team success should not factor into MVP voting. I love Cabrera. Actually, this is funny how this worked out since Trout is your guy and Miggy is mine but I think Trout gets the award.

I actually agree with you on AL Cy Young; it's going to be Max Scherzer. Chris Sale had been the best pitcher in the American League all year, and he still does lead the league in WAR. But his peripheral stats are not that much better than Scherzer's. And Max hits all the number thresholds: 20+ wins, ERA under 3, WHIP under 1, well over 200 strikeouts. He gets it.

In the NL, you are right again with the Cy Young; it is Clayton Kershaw and it's not even close.

As for MVP, way to be wrong on both accounts. First, Jay Bruce is a ludicrous pick. He's not even the best hitter on his own team. That would be Joey Votto. But you are also wrong with there being no clear-cut winner because that man is Andrew McCutchen. He is near the top five of pretty much every offensive category in existence. His team had its best season in decades. He runs. He plays defense. He does it all. McCutchen may not be a brand name yet but that doesn't mean he's not the easy MVP pick.


DAN:
Playoff predictions.... playoff predictions. Do I stick with my New Years' picks or clean slate and re-evaluate after a full season of games? Once the play-in game for the final American League wild card spot, along with the two single elimination wild card games are in the books, we can make some real playoff predictions. I still like my Braves.

[Part two - Playoff Prognostication & the Off season]

MLB Opening Day Mash up - Part One

MLB Opening Day Mash up - Part One
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (4-1-13)

DAN:

Its opening day. Woo!!! The Yankees and the rest of the league are back. I kid. I kid. I'm really not that much of a biased baseball fan. Its just that the Yankees are infinitely more fun to watch because they are both my team and the New York Yankees. Let the games begin!

We broke down the AL East a few weeks ago in detail, nailed down this years Orioles and Pirates, the teams who both overachieve but one maintains it and makes the playoffs while the other peters out after the All Star break. What's left? You know what's coming...

AL MVP = ?
NL MVP = ?
Rookie of the Year = ?

I'll stop there as the impossible gets exceedingly impossible. But in all honesty, what's exciting you about the season? What's going to end up a boring news story? Are we in for a predictable year or one that takes the game to a new level?

TODD:

Remember when Stewie Griffin found out he was going to Disney World? That's me when I realized Opening Day was at hand. Woo!

Guessing the MVP and ROY winners is kind of a pointless exercise though. What happened when we tried to pick the March Madness Final Four teams months ago? You picked Texas, who didn't even make the NIT, let alone the big one. Although your Syracuse pick to win it all does have validity.

What isn't pointless is naming what we should be excited for and pay attention to these first few weeks of the season. Such as: how does the Yankees lineup turn out; does the newly acquired Brennan Boesch make the team; will Granderson and Teixeira be ahead of schedule; how will Jeter and Rivera look... oh, oh, I misread what you wrote. We are ditching the biases for this post? My bad.

Here's what we should be on the edge of our seats about in each division:

NL East - Will the Braves have the greatest outfield unit since 2000? Will the Mets have the worst since 1900?

NL Central - Are the Reds a juggernaut ready to vanquish all other National League foes? When will the Cubs start going all Dodgers on us and spend big?

NL West - What type of season can Colorado's offense give us if Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki can stay healthy?

AL East - it's been discussed

AL Central - Are people ready to move on from the Royals if their young hitters don't start off well?

AL West - Did the Astros actually move yet? Really, this already happened? Why has no one said anything? Oh, and Mike Trout.

DAN:

My completely baseless Final Four picks from January aren't that bad... Waiting... Waiting... Fine. Predictions sure to go wrong can be left to Mike and Mike for the start of the MLB season. But I'm not promising a complete ditch of Yankees bias. That's too far.

The main storyline keeping me on the edge of my seat, besides all of the Yankees questions you mentioned (damn its hard to set them aside) is who will be worse, the Mets or Red Sox. Both teams are setting themselves up for complete failure. The Red Sox even went as far as to issue a media plea to their fans in order to rectify the ever growing gap between fan expectations and the overall suckiness of the team on the field. I LOVE this! Who's going to suck worse? That's what I'm excited for this season!

Running down the divisions, let me answer your edge of the seat questions and pose one more:

NL East - The Braves will definitely field a tremendous team, but you knew I'd say this. I picked them to win it all this year. As for the Mets, they won't be as bad as an early 1900s squad, mainly because steroids now exist. What's exciting me about the division? If the Marlins, who literally sold off their entire team in the off season, finish with a better record than the Mets, who still manage to have a ridiculous payroll even with such a poor lineup, can we finally end this stupid money buys success debate? Ownership is the key to success. Money spent poorly (the Mets) will prove to be no different than collecting money (the Marlins).

NL Central - I think the Reds will be good, but great is highly questionable. As for the Cubs, they won't start spending until the curse of the billy goat is lifted. Or the curse of that guy who caught the foul ball and 'ruined' their above average season, Bartman. So never. This division kind of waddles in obscurity and that's how I like it.

NL West - Can the Dodgers live up to the unwarranted expectations the LA fans now have for them? Can they stay above .500 with Hanley Ramirez out for two months?

AL Central - Since when did anyone jump on the Royals bandwagon? I'm intrigued to see whether Justin Verlander can maintain the ridiculous pitching dominance he's had of late. Pitching is so up and down, but not him. Interesting?

AL West - Mike freaking Trout. Also, I did not realize the Astros moved either. What was the point of this? Do the Astros have anyone good?

You can now discuss the Yankees or Fantasy Baseball. I'll allow it.

[MLB Mash up w/ Fantasy - Part Two]

Fantasy Baseball and AL East 2013 Preview - Part One

Fantasy Baseball and AL East 2013 Preview - Part One
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (3-11-13)

DAN:

Pitchers and Catchers have reported. I know for you east coasters this is probably the first real sign of spring. Yay for you! Here on the left coast it means we can start talking fantasy baseball and season expectations. As a transplant to Los Angeles I take every opportunity too see our Yankees play out west. This season they visit both the Dodgers and the Angels. Kick ass! But now for something tangible. A la the Coors Light Cold Hard Facts, I propose two cold hard truth based questions.

First, who goes number one in the Fantasy Baseball draft? Or, for people who like to have more fun and play in an auction league like us, who goes for the highest price?

Second, kick off our 2013 AL East preview and tell me who finishes with a better record, the Red Sox or the Yankees?

TODD:

Your first question is an interesting one. It almost comes down to the owner's personality. Do they want to go safe and reliable or take the riskier player? There are really only three options and anyone who throws in a different player is mentally unstable. The only three options for the top price in a fantasy draft are Miguel Cabrera, Ryan Braun or Mike Trout.

Miguel Cabrera is the safest play. All his hitting numbers will be massive; you know what you are getting.

Ryan Braun is probably the most likely to go first here because of the speed advantage he has over Cabrera. Where Cabrera will steal almost no bases, Braun has double digit steals every year, which is not something to be overlooked. All his hitting numbers will most likely fall just below Miggy everywhere else but not by much and not guaranteed. Braun is good enough to finish tops in the league in pretty much anything other than steals.

Which is where Mike Trout comes in. Trout may very well finish number one in steals. The other numbers are where the questions lie. Will he repeat that batting average and (more unlikely) all that power? If you're a believer in those categories, there is no way Trout would go anywhere but first. But, as fantasy is all about likelihood and minimizing risk, Trout is probably not going to be on the level of Cabrera or Braun in the power numbers or the average.

Does that help to not answer your question even remotely?

I suppose if it were me, I would take Ryan Braun first. Give me the safer bat with the added speed dimension even though the pick doesn't seem as fun as taking either of the other guys. Plus, who wants to root for Braun after all this PED business? ...Gah, picking first would be hard. I might rather have the third pick in a snake draft and let someone else decide.

The Yankees versus Red Sox is not an easy question either. Looking at it from a wider scope though, give me your predicted AL East finish, first through fifth. All five teams have talent and potential. I would really not be surprised by any order you give...with one exception. I know who is finishing last.

DAN:

What a total cop out on both questions, but at least you selected your top pick. I was on edge for a moment before I saw you included Mike Trout in your top three and I understand why you take Braun first. But come on, Mike freaking Trout will be featured in a line up including Josh freaking Hamilton and Albert freaking Pujols. Power numbers will pail in comparison to RBI, On base %, Runs Scored and Steals. He is hands down the number one selection and highest priced draft choice.

Oh hmm, I wonder who nabbed Mr. Trout in our keeper league last year in a trade for the ages. That's right, I got him at a $30 steal for as long as I damn well please. He's the top pick.

On to the real thing, actual players participating to account for wins and loses. You may know who is finishing last in the American League East, but here's how the entire division stacks up top to bottom, one through five, playoffs through beer and fried chicken. I'll even throw in the number of games back to paint a clearer picture.

1. Tampa Bay Rays

2. Baltimore Orioles (2 GB)

3. New York Yankees (4 GB)

4. Toronto Blue Jays (5 GB)

5. Boston Red Sox (10 GB)

I'm not buying the Blue Jays. Every year they do their darnedest to make a splash over the winter in free agency. This year they did quite well on paper, but games are played April through September. Time will prove me right. I envision the Yankees in the Wildcard play-in game, ultimately making the playoffs that way. The Red Sox finally have a real rebuilding year and the Rays and Orioles continue to prove youth means more than the size of your paycheck.

TODD:

I'm glad you took the time to write out your full AL East division standings with the amount of games back each team will finish. This makes it much easier for me to pinpoint how and why you're an idiot!

Really, this whole division comes down to one team: the Baltimore Orioles. Last year, they caught everyone off guard and had a miraculous season. Do you know where the term "miraculous" comes from? It's from the root world "miracle" meaning an act of a freaking higher power was needed for that to even come to fruition. The Orioles were the biggest bunch of fluking flukers who ever fluked in 2012.

Their whole season was built on winning one-run games, a statistic so fluky in and of itself that teams' records in one-run games year to year have absolutely no bearing on the team's success in subsequent seasons. They also hinged all their pitching on their bullpen arms since their starters were not even that good a year ago. Guess what we know about bullpen arms, especially middle relief pitchers? They are the flukiest position in sports, right ahead of field goal kickers in football. There is almost no correlation between a middle reliever's prior season and his current season's success rate. Remember when Luke Gregerson and Matt Thornton were the best arms in the game? Of course you don't because it only lasted one season! Hey Pedro Strop? Get ready to join this group.

There is LITTRALLY (said in the Rob Lowe as Chris Traeger voice) no way the Baltimore Orioles do not finish in last place this season, no way. Their lineup is average; their starting pitching is worse than that and their bullpen is coming back to earth faster than that meteor that hit Russia. What other facets of the game are there? Where is this team good?

[Todd's rankings, predictions and more on Friday]