Masahiro Tanaka and Fantasy Baseball 2014 - part two

Masahiro Tanaka and Fantasy Baseball 2014 - part two

by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (2-7-14)

[Part one - Mike freaking Trout]

[Starting next week Seesaw Sports will be moving to Buzzchomp - You'll find posts both here and there for a week or two as we transition our readers. Thanks!]



TODD:
There is certainly no arguing that Andrew McCutchen or Freddie Freeman feel like safer picks than elite starters from last year like Scherzer and Sanchez. That is always a given; batters are safer. However, the point of the theory was that if you were able to grab the top starting pitchers, you'd be okay if one or two missed because your lineup would still be in fine shape. The overall dominance of Mike Trout across all scoring categories would allow for "fill-in" batters later on.

It would be a less comfortable way of drafting. There is no doubt about that. I guess it would be hard to pull the trigger on the likes of Felix Hernandez and Cliff Lee and Stephen Strasburg when so many other players seem much safer and reliable in those early rounds.

Speaking of questionable pitchers, where are you taking Masahiro Tanaka this season in fantasy? He will not technically be the New York Yankees' ace, but he will be in spirit. Or they at least need him to be. So is he an ace fantasy pitcher? He doesn't appear to be the strikeout maven that Yu Darvish is. And the possibility exists that he will bomb completely in the major leagues. So where would you take him and at what point is he too rich for your blood and you know he won't be appearing on any of your fantasy teams?


DAN:
I'm all for drafting uncomfortably, but pinning down a draft strategy that requires you to practically dislike your first four or five picks because of uncertainty alone feels wrong. I forced myself last season to not draft any pitching early. The jury is out on whether it was a successful strategy or not, but it was really hard. Doing the opposite feels nearly impossible, but with a player like Mike freaking Trout, its not completely in left field. (Did you enjoy my corny baseball pun? Did asking you about it and pointing it out completely ruin the joke? Was it already ruined from the start?)

I love that you brought up Mr. Tanaka. The newest addition to the Yankees' starting rotation is a much safer pick in my opinion than Yu Darvish was. The main reason here, when Darvish came up the Rangers were good, but not a team that won in spite of its pitching. The Yankees have been a team, for the last few seasons, that wins games in spite of its pitching. Last year was a bit more balanced, but overall their lineup has compensated for off nights by the pitching staff. Hence the consistent high win totals. So even if he is an average pitcher, a la Ivan Nova, he will get victories and do well in several statistical categories.

For some perspective, in an auction league I paid $17 for Yu Darvish in his rookie season. I thought he would be damn good and was right on the money. I wasn't going to pay higher than $22 for him, he was unproven, but he definitely warranted a solid bid with all his upside. So where does that leave Masahiro Tanaka? He has the potential to be a great number two for the Yankees and an ace on many other teams. I don't see him surpassing CC Sabathia or even Pineda's ceiling with New York, but that only improves his fantasy value. If he's the number two or three pitcher, he'll be facing other team's two and three guys. That's great news for your fantasy wins total. I think I've finally gotten around to a real answer for your question.

In a snake draft (obligatory Booo from a big fan of auctions) I would take Tanaka anywhere in round seven and below. He is not a top five pick, but snatching him in the seventh round before anyone else does seems warranted. I love the consistency and upside of Japanese pitchers and its a risk well worth taking. In an auction draft (obligatory cheers) I'd pay up to $15 bucks for him, maybe a little higher. I don't love him like I did Yu Darvish, but he is a Yankee. The mid level pitchers go in the twenty dollar range, so reaching for a rookie at fifteen bucks seems solid to me. I'd be shocked if I had to pay that much, but he's a big name and they come at a price.


TODD:
Chasing wins in fantasy baseball is a flawed and dangerous tactic. There is little correlation between a team a pitcher plays for and his ability to grab a win. There is also an even lower connection between a pitcher being great and his ability to be elite in the wins category. There is just too much out of his control.

The stat that is easily predictable is strikeouts. And with Tanaka, his strikeout potential seems to be considerably lower than Darvish. With that said, I believe your estimate is still low!

Being a big-time news story, playing for the Yankees and all the rest, Tanaka is incredibly hyped up. Although he is coming over as a worse prospect than Darvish was according to scouts, he may be a bigger deal. I can see him going earlier in snake drafts than you mentioned and for more dough in auctions. Of course, I'm with you. I'll stay away from Tanaka in all leagues unless he becomes a bargain...which won't happen. I would much rather get my hands on a known commodity at that price and take a chance on someone cheaper later in the draft.

[If you missed Part one - Mike freaking Trout]

Mike freaking Trout and Fantasy Baseball 2014 - part one

Mike Freaking Trout and Fantasy Baseball 2014 - part one
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (2-3-14)


[Seesaw Sports will soon be moving to Buzzchomp - stay tuned - you won't miss a beat]



TODD:
Some reputable sites around the web have begun to open up their fantasy baseball leagues for the 2014 season this week.

First of all... Yeah!!!!!!!!!!

Secondly, a small piece of information has come to my attention in regards to this news. The information is specifically the projections for Angels outfielder Mike Trout during the 2014 season.

In normal fantasy baseball leagues, there are five scoring categories: runs, home runs, RBI, steals and batting average. More advanced leagues often include on-base percentage as well. In reference to those six categories, an elite hitter usually excels in three or four.

A player like Miguel Cabrera (the nearly unanimous number two player in fantasy this season) is a great performer in five of the six. He will put up elite numbers in runs, HRs, RBI, BA and OBP. The only category in which he offers little to no production is steals. This is fine considering his other skills.

However, in terms of six-category production, there are very few men who reach that point. Some guys will give a little production in all six. Others will be serviceable in four and average in two, or some combination therein. Only one man though is a legit threat to lead the league in any or all six of those categories: Mike Trout, the clear number one player in fantasy baseball.

Forgetting even 2014 projections, Trout's career numbers in each category look something like this rounded for one season: 115 runs, 28 HRs, 90 RBI, 40 steals, .325 BA and .410 OBP. In other words, Trout is amazing in EVERYTHING. And those figures are just a rough estimate based off his two full seasons in the majors. Imagine if he continues to get better...

This is, eventually, bringing me to my point. Most fantasy baseball owners draft hitters early and often. Pitching is less predictable and vacillates more. Thus, it makes logical sense to grab the sure things at the plate in the early rounds and load up on pitchers later on, hoping that a few have good seasons.

If, however, you have the first pick and draft Mike Trout, should this theory change?

Rather than load up on hitters early, if you are able to take Trout first and then grab four or five of the top dozen starting pitchers in baseball, can't you fill out a lineup of hitters afterwards? There won't be many multi-category performers left in the middle rounds, but there will be one and two-skill guys available. Guys like Everth Cabrera (runs and steals) or Mark Trumbo (HRs and RBI) don't produce across the board, but they excel in certain aspects of the game.

Is Trout enough to swing an entire draft process? If I get the first pick, I may be enticed enough to find out.


DAN:
I have to first mention that it's wonderful to immediately look towards the baseball season the second after the NFL season so abruptly ends. Bring on baseball!

Please oh please waffle over this decision just a bit longer. It will only put me in a better position to finally defeat you and your fantasy baseball genius brain, or Geno as like to call it. If you are lucky enough to get the first pick in the fantasy baseball draft then you better select Mike freaking Trout. On a side note, its kind of disrespectful of you to not use his full name. Its Mike freaking Trout, who you better pick first or be doomed to lose.

Any who, I'm in the camp of people who have learned the hard way, through experience, that no matter how great you think you've done at drafting pitching, you didn't do a good job. Go right ahead, draft Mike freaking Trout and then load up on four or five of the top dozen pitchers with your next five picks. You know what will inevitably happen? Two or three of those five "top" pitchers will be completely mediocre. Sure, you'll get two who are very strong, maybe even dominant. And if you're very lucky, one will even be a top three pitcher. But most likely those "top" five pitchers will be slightly above average. Is that how we win in fantasy baseball? By drafting a team of slightly above average players to accompany the best player in the league?

Well we both know that the answer there is NO. You're playing mind games aren't you? Trying to warp my thinking, make me go against the cardinal knowledge of the game and rely on last season's pitching statistics to skew my hardened draft knowledge. Well sir, I'm calling you out. For shame.

I'd honestly like to believe that last season's top pitchers will once again perform at a high level. But there is too much history over the last five MLB seasons to ignore; it's simply not the truth. Pitchers rarely dominate year to year. They can still win games, but they don't dominate fantasy statistical categories. There are a few exceptions, a la Clayton Kershaw, but sit there and tell me with a straight face that you know Max Scherzer or Anibal Sanchez are going to have great seasons once again. I'm putting my money on Andrew McCutchen and Freddie Freeman thank you very much.

[Part two - Masahiro Tanaka]

MLB April stats mean NOTHING - Part two

MLB April stats mean NOTHING - Part two
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (5-10-13)

[Part one - MLB one month Over Reaction]



DAN:
As to the crazy yet real stats you through out there, I'm going to tell you if any of them will still be true at the All Star break and season's end. This should be fun!

- The Oakland A's and the Colorado Rockies scored the most runs in the AL and NL respectively
This is an obvious NO for both teams.

- Pittsburgh was in first place in the NL Central
I like them as a wildcard team, but not as division champs.

-Toronto was in last place in the AL East
I'm really surprised they aren't at least a .500 ball club, but last place seems right to me.

- The Rockies had the most April wins in the entire National League
Did you make this one up? I can't see this lasting even to Memorial Day.

- John Buck was on pace for 54 home runs and 150 RBI
I almost went to add him to my fantasy team, but then I realized it was John Buck.

- The following players had an OPS over 1.000: Dexter Fowler, Carlos Gomez, Wilin Rosario
This just means they aren't playing much, right? I should probably drop Rosario now from my fantasy roster..... Yeah no way, he's a stud.

- Jake Westbrook leads all starters in ERA with a mark of 0.98
Who? Is he available?

- Clay Bucholz and Jon Lester combined to go 9-0 after going 20-22 last year
No wonder the Red Sox are in first place. Not going to continue.

- Jason Grilli, the Pirates' closer, leads the league in saves and is a perfect 10 for 10 in chances
Who? Is he available? I now want him badly on my team.


TODD:
It seems counterproductive for you to react to ANY of the stats I listed for the month of April. Didn't I explain pretty clearly how things that happen in April are pointless? Hah. None of those things will continue; some have already begun to swing around in just a week and a half of May!

The dirty, little secret about baseball statistics though is that you can pick a sample size of thirty days from pretty much any point in the season and create a list that long or longer about idiotic things that make no sense. It is the problem with a small sample size. There is not enough time for a true outcome to be unearthed. Too much is based on luck in that short a time frame. The reason April stands out as "the pointless month" is because stats are easier to read starting from zero. That is really the only reason. It is harder to find someone's terrible July compared to the rest of the league because you have to sift through their stats prior to the beginning of July, or even make a point of keeping track before the trend even develops. April is way easier.

With that said, I love statistics. You can twist them and contort them to make any point your heart desires. Sports writers are really just cutting through all the numbers out there and cherry-picking ones that prove what they want to say. If someone is down on the Angels, they may bring up how many games back they are or how many games below .500 they are or how they only have an 9.1% chance of making the playoffs (according to ESPN's playoff odds).

But someone could just as easily bring up how they've only played one home series so far against a team who didn't make the playoffs last year, which was April 12-14 against Houston, and they won 2 out of 3 there. They are currently playing without their ace pitcher, without their closer and without their starting center fielder who was batting .313 when he went down and had one of the better Aprils of anyone on the roster. Also...hmm, well everything else with this team is bad. Josh Hamilton is so bad he's been below replacement-level for over thirty games now. So okay, statistics can't be manipulated to prove ANYTHING but the fact remains.

Let's tweak the question though. From this day forward, Anaheim wins more games than the Dodgers.


DAN:
Tweaking the question just makes it so your answer can be right, while the REAL question is what the fans really care about. Playoffs baby, playoffs. The Dodgers are in. The Angels are out.

As for stats, I enjoy the numbers behind the game of baseball, but could ultimately care less about my team's percent chance of making the playoffs at this point in the season. I don't care about their ERA or their OBP either. There are only two stats that matter to me as a baseball fan. Team wins and team batting average with runners in scoring position (RISP). Two stats, no more, no less.

I love following my team's wins because you can get a real feel for the energy and swagger of your ball club. Especially looking back at April, is your team clicking, starting to gel as a group, or are they much maligned like the aforementioned Dodgers and Angels. Even if your team is teetering at .500 you can be happy about a three or four game win streak. It shows the team has a chance to make a splash this season. Of course, the opposite is even more true. Any sort of long losing streak at this point in the year is rather damning. Lose two or three and you're like everyone else. But ratchet up a few six or seven game losing streaks and its a hole that only one or two teams in history have climbed out of by September.

April wins and loses have minimal importance as long as you aren't nine games back like the Angels. They can definitely recover, but they'll never be a great team this season. That we know for a fact after one month. As for the rest of the league, five games up or down in your division is neither a mountain or a mole hill. Its just a month sample size like you mentioned. Let's talk again on July 1st.

My other favorite stat is team batting average with RISP. As Yankees fans our team usually hits a lot of home runs, but I can always tell if our team is up for a deep postseason run based on that stat. Take last season for example, the Yankees stunk with RISP. They couldn't hit anyone home unless it was with a long ball. In the postseason, when power numbers drop and small ball gains importance, I knew this stat would haunt them. The team did not get the simple hits when it mattered, with runners on base, and you can't win a championship like that. Rarely can a team power hit their way past a lousy average with RISP. I'm keeping a close eye on this stat as we approach June. Things do look up this season for the Yankees, who added a lot of productive players to the lineup, guys who get the hit and get the man home to score. This season is nothing like last season and I'm loving it!

[Part one - Click here - MLB one month Over Reaction]

MLB Opening Day Mash up now w/ Fantasy! - Part Two

MLB Opening Day Mash up now w/ Fantasy! - Part Two
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (4-5-13)

[Part One of the MLB Mash up]

TODD:

I'm not on board with your Red Sox and Mets hate. Obviously I don't want either team to succeed, but I am not sure they will both be terrible. The Red Sox have loads of talent still. Their lineup is actually looking better than what the Yankees are going to be forced to trot out. And the Mets have some great, young pitching. They may very well finish third in that division although that is more of a shot at the Phillies and Marlins than confidence in the Metropolitans.

In regards to money buying wins, I think everyone agrees that is not the case. The past success of the Twins and Athletics as well as the current run of the Rays proved that. However, money helps. It is easier to overcome roster mistakes. That is a given. Although if a money-laden team tries to reverse course and be thrifty, it makes it even harder to succeed since they already paid for so many terrible contracts before that decision was made!!...not thinking of any team in particular, just a general idea for the landscape of the sport; that's all.

Speaking of spending money, we recently had our fantasy baseball auction draft and a funny thing occurred. People are always nervous to spend too much right away in these things; I get that. However, what has happened more and more each subsequent season is that people have way too much money left over in later rounds. Solid players start to get bid up because owners were targeting them as cheaper options to a star player. Late round values don't become values at all as the money floods the market. The same thing happens in real life sports with a salary cap. NBA or NFL teams seem to offer more money for lesser players if they have the cap room. As odd as it sounds, has baseball, with its unlimited salaries and ultimate capitalism, become the smartest with its money?

Sure everyone hates Marlins' owner Jeffrey Loria because he dismantled his entire team. But doesn't that seem smarter than overpaying for players who won't make a big enough difference?

DAN:

Hate is a strong word. Neither the Red Sox or Mets will be playoff contenders this season, but I'm not saying they'll bottom out or anything. Its just exciting to see who can be worse! The Mets are taking a head start with the growing length of their Disabled List to start the year. And yes I know, the Yankees list of disabled players (how funny does that read) is much longer, but we aren't talking about the 27 time world champions right now.

I think you may be on to something big hear, baseball has become much smarter with its money out of necessity. Since anyone can spend whatever they want on any player, over time everyone is either going to get smart or get burned. Now the biggest spenders of the last decade, the Yankees and Red Sox, both got burned and had some smart signings. But overall, the big money deals have burned both teams. The league overall, leaving out the Dodgers and Angels, have definitely learned from history. My feeling is that the Angels have been more or less smart with the money, but the Dodgers are acting like its 2003 and the A-rod deal hasn't happened yet. As a resident of Los Angeles, I hope they get lucky.

I want to touch on the Marlins for a moment before commenting on the wacky hijinks that ensued during our Fantasy Baseball draft. Your idea that selling off all the high priced talent is smart if those players can't make a big enough difference misses one huge asterisk of a point. You can't cross the line. Its smart to trade or release players who are under performing their contracts. But in doing so, you need to then sign new guys to be competitive and get better. I haven't taken a look at the Marlins farm system of late, but chances are this team will suck in 2013. If you're a Marlins fan, opening day has arrived and you can already start looking toward 2014. That is just awful. The Marlins re-branded themselves last year and now trot out this mess. Come on man!

Now the good stuff, fantasy baseball. I actually found that people were overpaying for just about everyone from the very beginning. Then, when something juicy was happening in an NCAA basketball game, you could sneak in and win a guy at auction for his actual retail price. Otherwise, it was bid up, bid up. I loved and hated this. Personally, bidding up players that I don't want is the most fun thing in the world. I must have done this at least six times and never once did I win the guy. It was awesome! But overall, the prices for drafted players were up there and no one will be keeper material because of it. Did you see the prices for catchers? Its a freaking catcher! How can you pay over five bucks at auction for Jesus Montero of the Mariners? He's a two dollar player at best. And then the relief pitchers, well, what the hell was that about? Every year the entire crop of successful relievers from the season before is cut in half and one side sucks while the other manages to be average. Then there is a whole group of unknown guys who manage to be awesome. Why the spending spree? Insanity and it was great!

TODD:

I'm with you on the catcher front. I was perfectly happy waiting and waiting...and waiting for my starting catcher. I ended up nabbing Jonathan Lucroy for a few pennies. Okay, actually it was $4 because someone who already had a catcher bid him up to screw me.

But the relievers was an interesting development. I partook in this insanity of which I normally avoid. Never Pay For Saves: it is the epitome of fantasy baseball advice. Saves come into the league during the season at a higher rate than any other stat. So many closers get hurt/lose their job that paying for an elite closer is almost heresy. And yet I paid for saves...kind of.

When I became aware of the growing trend of the league (i.e. people were saving their money too much and the values later in the draft were going to be expensiveeeee), I realized I too would have too much money left over. If I knew this ahead of time, I would have bid more on the good players. Instead of bidding up replacement-level bats though, I decided to go ahead and pay for five starting closers who were below the elite level but have the job locked down for opening day. Our league allows for three RP slots and two P slots. To me, that means I can start five closers each and every day, so I paid for them. Will two, maybe three of these gentlemen lose their job before the end of June? Perhaps. Will I regret my decision? Almost certainly. Was there a better alternative after I got caught in the midst of the money save? Not that I can see. Should I stop asking myself questions and allow you to ask a few? I suppose.

DAN:

I did my best to spend early on the available big bats while grabbing some pitching along the way. I held off on the relievers because they are nearly impossible to predict. I think May is a good time to snatch up or trade for relievers. Too bad we can't put a hold on their stats until Memorial Day. I'm now going to take this opportunity to "Raise the Roof" for my boy Yu Darvish. I used a keeper on him for a measly $17 and he rewarded me by starting the season with a near Perfect Game, twenty six outs on fourteen strikeouts. No complete game, but I'm not greedy. Go Yu!

The trends really surprised me in our fantasy baseball draft for two reasons. The first is that offseason ratings for baseball players, especially pitchers, is notoriously a poor indication of the upcoming season's success. Last year's stats carry over for mainly the top 15% of guys, the cream of the crop, and a quarter of those are keepers (all numbers approximate). So why spend money on risky business? I guess that's why auctions are so much fun! Bidding up the copper while you snatch some gold for the same price is oh so much fun. Here's hoping you do regret your decision and someone else, ahem, me, finally dethrones you as champion and wins the league.

One final thought on the actual games being played by real life people, how many MLB players do you think are playing fantasy baseball? I know quite a few football players play fantasy football, but this is much easier to accomplish. Fantasy baseball is a completely different game on a whole new level and playing fantasy while competing would be maddening. You definitely can't have yourself on your team. Unlike football, each at bat is so mental and each pitch a grudge match already that adding on the pressure of stat padding for fantasy purposes would crush even the best players. Maybe that's what happened to Tim Lincecum. And could you even have teammates on your fantasy team? You want to win your team's game, but if Player X works a walk instead of getting a hit do you applaud him getting on base or be pissed for lowering your fantasy team's overall statistics? I don't see this ending well.

TODD:

I think zero MLB baseball players play fantasy baseball. That number again, just to be clear, was zero.

I bet a ton of guys play fantasy football though. As you brought up, it seems counterproductive for players to participate in fantasy games involving their own sport. It might also be against league policy. I am not sure where you heard that football players are playing fantasy football, but I find that really hard to believe, no matter the ease of the game. Especially if it is for money, how is that different than gambling on your sport? Pete Rose got banned from baseball for life for essentially owning himself on all his fantasy teams. He never bet against the Reds. But he still bet.

Fantasy sports is more of an outsiders' activity. If athletes play, they play it in sports other than their own, where they would be outsiders.  Now let the games begin!

[Part One of our MLB Mash up]

MLB Opening Day Mash up - Part One

MLB Opening Day Mash up - Part One
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (4-1-13)

DAN:

Its opening day. Woo!!! The Yankees and the rest of the league are back. I kid. I kid. I'm really not that much of a biased baseball fan. Its just that the Yankees are infinitely more fun to watch because they are both my team and the New York Yankees. Let the games begin!

We broke down the AL East a few weeks ago in detail, nailed down this years Orioles and Pirates, the teams who both overachieve but one maintains it and makes the playoffs while the other peters out after the All Star break. What's left? You know what's coming...

AL MVP = ?
NL MVP = ?
Rookie of the Year = ?

I'll stop there as the impossible gets exceedingly impossible. But in all honesty, what's exciting you about the season? What's going to end up a boring news story? Are we in for a predictable year or one that takes the game to a new level?

TODD:

Remember when Stewie Griffin found out he was going to Disney World? That's me when I realized Opening Day was at hand. Woo!

Guessing the MVP and ROY winners is kind of a pointless exercise though. What happened when we tried to pick the March Madness Final Four teams months ago? You picked Texas, who didn't even make the NIT, let alone the big one. Although your Syracuse pick to win it all does have validity.

What isn't pointless is naming what we should be excited for and pay attention to these first few weeks of the season. Such as: how does the Yankees lineup turn out; does the newly acquired Brennan Boesch make the team; will Granderson and Teixeira be ahead of schedule; how will Jeter and Rivera look... oh, oh, I misread what you wrote. We are ditching the biases for this post? My bad.

Here's what we should be on the edge of our seats about in each division:

NL East - Will the Braves have the greatest outfield unit since 2000? Will the Mets have the worst since 1900?

NL Central - Are the Reds a juggernaut ready to vanquish all other National League foes? When will the Cubs start going all Dodgers on us and spend big?

NL West - What type of season can Colorado's offense give us if Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki can stay healthy?

AL East - it's been discussed

AL Central - Are people ready to move on from the Royals if their young hitters don't start off well?

AL West - Did the Astros actually move yet? Really, this already happened? Why has no one said anything? Oh, and Mike Trout.

DAN:

My completely baseless Final Four picks from January aren't that bad... Waiting... Waiting... Fine. Predictions sure to go wrong can be left to Mike and Mike for the start of the MLB season. But I'm not promising a complete ditch of Yankees bias. That's too far.

The main storyline keeping me on the edge of my seat, besides all of the Yankees questions you mentioned (damn its hard to set them aside) is who will be worse, the Mets or Red Sox. Both teams are setting themselves up for complete failure. The Red Sox even went as far as to issue a media plea to their fans in order to rectify the ever growing gap between fan expectations and the overall suckiness of the team on the field. I LOVE this! Who's going to suck worse? That's what I'm excited for this season!

Running down the divisions, let me answer your edge of the seat questions and pose one more:

NL East - The Braves will definitely field a tremendous team, but you knew I'd say this. I picked them to win it all this year. As for the Mets, they won't be as bad as an early 1900s squad, mainly because steroids now exist. What's exciting me about the division? If the Marlins, who literally sold off their entire team in the off season, finish with a better record than the Mets, who still manage to have a ridiculous payroll even with such a poor lineup, can we finally end this stupid money buys success debate? Ownership is the key to success. Money spent poorly (the Mets) will prove to be no different than collecting money (the Marlins).

NL Central - I think the Reds will be good, but great is highly questionable. As for the Cubs, they won't start spending until the curse of the billy goat is lifted. Or the curse of that guy who caught the foul ball and 'ruined' their above average season, Bartman. So never. This division kind of waddles in obscurity and that's how I like it.

NL West - Can the Dodgers live up to the unwarranted expectations the LA fans now have for them? Can they stay above .500 with Hanley Ramirez out for two months?

AL Central - Since when did anyone jump on the Royals bandwagon? I'm intrigued to see whether Justin Verlander can maintain the ridiculous pitching dominance he's had of late. Pitching is so up and down, but not him. Interesting?

AL West - Mike freaking Trout. Also, I did not realize the Astros moved either. What was the point of this? Do the Astros have anyone good?

You can now discuss the Yankees or Fantasy Baseball. I'll allow it.

[MLB Mash up w/ Fantasy - Part Two]

Fantasy Baseball and AL East 2013 Preview - Part One

Fantasy Baseball and AL East 2013 Preview - Part One
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (3-11-13)

DAN:

Pitchers and Catchers have reported. I know for you east coasters this is probably the first real sign of spring. Yay for you! Here on the left coast it means we can start talking fantasy baseball and season expectations. As a transplant to Los Angeles I take every opportunity too see our Yankees play out west. This season they visit both the Dodgers and the Angels. Kick ass! But now for something tangible. A la the Coors Light Cold Hard Facts, I propose two cold hard truth based questions.

First, who goes number one in the Fantasy Baseball draft? Or, for people who like to have more fun and play in an auction league like us, who goes for the highest price?

Second, kick off our 2013 AL East preview and tell me who finishes with a better record, the Red Sox or the Yankees?

TODD:

Your first question is an interesting one. It almost comes down to the owner's personality. Do they want to go safe and reliable or take the riskier player? There are really only three options and anyone who throws in a different player is mentally unstable. The only three options for the top price in a fantasy draft are Miguel Cabrera, Ryan Braun or Mike Trout.

Miguel Cabrera is the safest play. All his hitting numbers will be massive; you know what you are getting.

Ryan Braun is probably the most likely to go first here because of the speed advantage he has over Cabrera. Where Cabrera will steal almost no bases, Braun has double digit steals every year, which is not something to be overlooked. All his hitting numbers will most likely fall just below Miggy everywhere else but not by much and not guaranteed. Braun is good enough to finish tops in the league in pretty much anything other than steals.

Which is where Mike Trout comes in. Trout may very well finish number one in steals. The other numbers are where the questions lie. Will he repeat that batting average and (more unlikely) all that power? If you're a believer in those categories, there is no way Trout would go anywhere but first. But, as fantasy is all about likelihood and minimizing risk, Trout is probably not going to be on the level of Cabrera or Braun in the power numbers or the average.

Does that help to not answer your question even remotely?

I suppose if it were me, I would take Ryan Braun first. Give me the safer bat with the added speed dimension even though the pick doesn't seem as fun as taking either of the other guys. Plus, who wants to root for Braun after all this PED business? ...Gah, picking first would be hard. I might rather have the third pick in a snake draft and let someone else decide.

The Yankees versus Red Sox is not an easy question either. Looking at it from a wider scope though, give me your predicted AL East finish, first through fifth. All five teams have talent and potential. I would really not be surprised by any order you give...with one exception. I know who is finishing last.

DAN:

What a total cop out on both questions, but at least you selected your top pick. I was on edge for a moment before I saw you included Mike Trout in your top three and I understand why you take Braun first. But come on, Mike freaking Trout will be featured in a line up including Josh freaking Hamilton and Albert freaking Pujols. Power numbers will pail in comparison to RBI, On base %, Runs Scored and Steals. He is hands down the number one selection and highest priced draft choice.

Oh hmm, I wonder who nabbed Mr. Trout in our keeper league last year in a trade for the ages. That's right, I got him at a $30 steal for as long as I damn well please. He's the top pick.

On to the real thing, actual players participating to account for wins and loses. You may know who is finishing last in the American League East, but here's how the entire division stacks up top to bottom, one through five, playoffs through beer and fried chicken. I'll even throw in the number of games back to paint a clearer picture.

1. Tampa Bay Rays

2. Baltimore Orioles (2 GB)

3. New York Yankees (4 GB)

4. Toronto Blue Jays (5 GB)

5. Boston Red Sox (10 GB)

I'm not buying the Blue Jays. Every year they do their darnedest to make a splash over the winter in free agency. This year they did quite well on paper, but games are played April through September. Time will prove me right. I envision the Yankees in the Wildcard play-in game, ultimately making the playoffs that way. The Red Sox finally have a real rebuilding year and the Rays and Orioles continue to prove youth means more than the size of your paycheck.

TODD:

I'm glad you took the time to write out your full AL East division standings with the amount of games back each team will finish. This makes it much easier for me to pinpoint how and why you're an idiot!

Really, this whole division comes down to one team: the Baltimore Orioles. Last year, they caught everyone off guard and had a miraculous season. Do you know where the term "miraculous" comes from? It's from the root world "miracle" meaning an act of a freaking higher power was needed for that to even come to fruition. The Orioles were the biggest bunch of fluking flukers who ever fluked in 2012.

Their whole season was built on winning one-run games, a statistic so fluky in and of itself that teams' records in one-run games year to year have absolutely no bearing on the team's success in subsequent seasons. They also hinged all their pitching on their bullpen arms since their starters were not even that good a year ago. Guess what we know about bullpen arms, especially middle relief pitchers? They are the flukiest position in sports, right ahead of field goal kickers in football. There is almost no correlation between a middle reliever's prior season and his current season's success rate. Remember when Luke Gregerson and Matt Thornton were the best arms in the game? Of course you don't because it only lasted one season! Hey Pedro Strop? Get ready to join this group.

There is LITTRALLY (said in the Rob Lowe as Chris Traeger voice) no way the Baltimore Orioles do not finish in last place this season, no way. Their lineup is average; their starting pitching is worse than that and their bullpen is coming back to earth faster than that meteor that hit Russia. What other facets of the game are there? Where is this team good?

[Todd's rankings, predictions and more on Friday]