Hello college football Playoffs - Part two

Hello college football Playoffs - Part two
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (1-10-14)

[Part one - Goodbye BCS]



DAN:
The BCS rankings are based on numbers, statistics and lots of other substantial information that has its basis in real life. Contrast that to the Coach's poll which is merely the opinion of the coaches or their assistants or brother-in-law. I did not sign up for the loss of these rankings, simply a four team playoff to replace the one game BCS title game.

Using mathematics is usually a good idea and I can't disagree with you on this one. My gripe with the BCS system was that nearly every season the top five teams were basically equal. It felt arbitrary to let the computer rank a one loss team from a stronger conference over an undefeated team from a weaker conference. They should play each other instead! That's what was missing and that's what excites me about this playoff. The top four teams get to play for the title. Great! A group of randomly selected individuals deciding the top four teams instead of the BCS computers... sucky!


TODD:
Well that was almost a prophetic response by you. The first half of the BCS Championship game went exactly as you described. Auburn's defense was holding down FSU and confusing the young quarterback with blitzes and faking pressure...Then they decided to play thirty more minutes. Auburn struggled to produce points and Famous Jameis drove the Seminoles down for all the points they needed, taking the lead on their final drive with just seconds remaining. It was really a great game and fitting end to the BCS.

But enough pleasantries, because discussing the upcoming playoff is anything but pleasant. Yes, the BCS rankings will be done away with. So if you thought it was arbitrary for a computer system to rank a certain team second overall over another, get ready! We will see a panel of humans try to decipher the validity of teams ranked four through ten or so. How many teams this season would have had a claim to that fourth playoff spot? At least three teams: Michigan State, Stanford and Baylor. You could even have talked me into Missouri and South Carolina or Ohio State. The final decisions of the playoff committee are going to be so arbitrary it's ridiculous.

As far as I know, there will be no voting released, just a final four (Or, technically, a final four plus eight I suppose, since they are still playing other "top" bowl games that literally no one is going to care about now). Also, apparently the group will release rankings just a couple times throughout the year, so we may not have a feeling about where they stand from their final ranking all the way to the bowl announcements.

I wouldn't have minded if they left the BCS intact and simply expanded the final from two to four as you said. That would have been ideal. Now, I think we're in store for a shit show. Mythbusters once did an episode on shit hitting the fan; whether it actually splatters and covers EVERYTHING in its wake. The results weren't perfect, but they decided it was a plausible figure of speech. So if the BCS was shit hitting the fan, this new playoff committee is going to be like shit-covered fans being dropped from the sky, into the jet stream of an airplane.


DAN:
I love your poop analogy and I definitely was spot on with my BCS prediction, as far as the first half was concerned. I missed the boat entirely with the whole come back, kick return for a touchdown and then miracle victory thing. Moving on...

There are two very simple things that make the college football regular season easy to follow and fun as hell. The first is the knowledge that these teams are competing for a top tier bowl game, not just any old bowl game since everyone gets that. The second is the weekly top twenty five rankings of the best teams in the nation. We lose our first thing instantly by adding a four team playoff. No one cares about the Rose Bowl game now, they just want to be in the playoff. Before, if you weren't one of the top two teams then you wanted to win your conference to make the nationally televised bowl game. In the case of the Big Ten and Pac-12, its the Rose Bowl. The conference title is now very much diminished, as its highly likely the top team in both the Big Ten and Pac-12 will make the playoff in the upcoming season. Ok, so we have to lose something to gain something else. That's fine.

I was on board with the playoff up until the loss of the weekly BCS rankings. Every college football season begins with a pre-season top twenty five ranking, but the true rankings were never fully realized until the BCS rankings came out. This was when we as fans could look at the teams ranked one to twenty five and feel confident in the order. It was updated every Sunday night on ESPN, debated endlessly on Monday and Tuesday and then updated again week after week after week. The buzz around college football was huge from this. Huge! Now its all gone...

If the "group of super smart college football geniuses who will pick the playoff teams" don't rank the top twenty five every week of the season, then what are we following as fans? Are they hoping we go back to caring about the conference rankings and positioning? That's just stupid. The conferences only mean something to those teams in them. The playoffs will be national.

I don't think your poop covered fans being dropped through airplane turbines analogy was strong enough. I'm picturing a delicious wedding cake with a giant fat guy picking his nose and then grabbing pieces of the cake and eating them. He continues to do this for a good thirty to forty minutes until the cake is destroyed and full of boogers. Then he farts on it and hands his wife a piece. That piece of cake is our college football product.

[If you missed part one - Goodbye BCS]

Goodbye BCS - Part one

Goodbye BCS - Part one
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (1-6-14)



TODD:
Monday night's game between the Florida State Seminoles and the Auburn Tigers is for the college football BCS National Championship. It also marks the end of the entire Bowl Championship Series system.

I suppose let's first get the logistics out of the way. Who do you think is going to win..how do you feel about Jameis Winston..what about this spectacular Auburn story of them going from unranked to number two in the nation?..et cetera et cetera.

We can address those arbitrary concerns, but the more pressing matter is of course the abolishment of the BCS.

I am interested in your feelings on the system in general. I feel as though I was routinely in the minority in defending it. I thought the BCS was great. It removed the need for a playoff system technically. But what it actually did was turn the entire regular season into playoffs. Every game mattered.

This will still be the case, for the most part, with the new four-team playoff that is being instituted in 2014. It seems like a second loss during a season will forever bar a team from reaching the playoffs, although multiple one-loss teams will probably be battling for more than just the final spot each season. It is rare to have two or three-plus teams finish undefeated the same year.

So really where we're going in college football is from having a computer formula determine the top two teams to having a panel of random people determine the top four teams. Now I'm no big city lawyer, but it seems to me that using mathematics is a better form of determination. Am I crazy?

With the SABRmetric revolutions going on in basketball and hockey, and baseball being firmly entrenched in complex statistical measures, why is college football going the other way? Wasn't it simply ahead of the curve with the BCS?

If everyone wants to expand the final from two teams to four, by all means. But why replace math with bias and opinion?


DAN:
I want to like Florida State in the championship game, I really do. I think Winston has put up some gaudy numbers, a bit over hyped for my liking. The Seminoles had a great season, but its not the second coming of their greatness and Winston needs to show me a lot more before I can see him in the NFL. But the Seminoles were dominant this year... in the ACC.

The ACC is better known for basketball, but does play some damn good football. However, its not the SEC in terms of caliber of team. Just like how in baseball the American League Central teams as a whole don't stack up to those in the American League East, ACC vs SEC is not a competition. Auburn wins this game on the back of their defense. I hope its not a blowout.

And thus the BCS ends... but are we doing away with the BCS rankings as well? I realize that the rankings have been used to determine the top two teams to play in the championship game, but are they actually going to do away with the mathematical ranking system entirely?

I'm no fan of the BCS system for the National Championship, however, I LOVE the BCS rankings. I think they are infinitely better than the USA today poll or the Coach's poll...

[Part two - Hello college football Playoffs]

Fan Focus: Storming the Court - Part two

Fan Focus: Storming the Court - Part two
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (9-13-13)

[Part one - Fan Etiquette on the Road]



DAN:
Let's start with a few safe assumptions for court storming. First off, the game must be over. Secondly, your team must have won the game. I'm calling these assumptions, because if either of those two don't apply then the court storming party is being an ass.

Rules for storming the court:

1 - You are under the age of 30.

Storming the court should be strictly limited to the young crowd. Its not proper for a sixty year old man to rush the field. But a group of college kids at the game? Hell yes!

2 - Your team has just executed a significant victory.

Significant is defined as playoff clinching, a playoff victory, championship victory, or major regular season upset. Major is defined as an unranked team defeating a ranked opponent.

Did you enjoy my analytical approach? I was going to add in a rule about being drunk, but no need to exclude the crazy sober crowd. I think if you're ranked, in the top 25, then its not a major victory to defeat the top team. Its big, but not court storming big. Since this act is almost exclusive to college sports (its illegal in the pros or something), we need to make sure it counts. Otherwise the fans would storm after every victory in order to turn the game into a giant party.


TODD:
Obviously I have no problem with your assumptions or your first rule. Your team has to have won, no question; and this is indeed a young man's game. No elderly.

Number two is where things get sketchy. You tried to map out what entails a significant victory but you did not cover nearly enough. And you also ventured into the wrong territory. Playoff and championship wins are rarely, if ever, played on someone's home court anymore. So that's one problem. And if the favorite wins a playoff game, should their fans rush the playing field? I say no.

Really the only allowable rushing occurs at regular season, big wins. Now you defined this as an unranked team defeating a ranked team. But this is pretty baseless. Should a top 40 program really rush the field if they take down the 25th ranked team in the country? That would be ludicrous. And even if your program is down on its luck, should the fans really rush the court if they beat a highly-ranked but lowly university, like say if Auburn football beat TCU? Sure TCU is a much better team these days but whose program would you really rather be a part of? Auburn wins that war and its fans should rush nothing. They have a recent national championship for heaven's sake!

It is hard to cover every example and situation with a blanket rule because there will always be exceptions. But a court-storming has to have a few factors:

- The team has to be the underdog
- They have to be under appreciated in some way, either historically or in that specific matchup (i.e. NC State vs. UNC basketball)
- They cannot have won a title, national or conference, in the last 7 years
- They cannot be ranked in any poll
- The vanquished squad has to be either very highly ranked now or historically highly thought of

If one of these factors is missing, don't do it kids. It makes your school look petty and childish, like you don't have any sense of where your team sits nationally. Take pride in your university; don't embarrass yourselves.


DAN:
Wow, way to crap on the party. By your logic, Duke should never storm the court after any victory, ever. You're completely wrong on this! If Duke goes undefeated in the regular season, hell yes the fans should storm the court. If they win the ACC title or National Championship, hell yes they should storm the court. In those last two scenarios the fans would be out of town, so even better. Trash someone else's arena!

This brings up a fun counterpoint. Is it okay to storm the court after victory has been snatched from your fingertips? Storming in anger that is. I had winning as an assumption, but its worth asking. Or is it okay to storm after someone on the team sets a national record?

I've never had the pleasure of storming a court. But it seems to me like anything goes. I'm envisioning the tiny Asian girl getting pushed around, or having to climb on her friend's shoulders so as not to get swallowed by the mob.

Give me your best/worst experience as a fan on the road. Tie this topic up in a nice pretty bow.


TODD:
You are correct; Duke fans should never storm the court, ever. But Duke students know this is the deal. They are smart students; smart, jerky, asshole students.

And in what scenario would a cluster of Duke fans storm the court for a National Championship that's being played in, say, Atlanta? Not only would they not be allowed on the court (college sports do have security and police, but they let it go if the ENTIRE arena charges them, not for a group of 30 kids), but it would look foolish even if they did. Storming the court is only cool if the court is flooded with members of the crowd, not spattered with them.

And really? Storming the court after a loss?? No. Victory was your first assumption and its a good one. Storming in anger is not cool and does not happen and storming for a player accomplishment would never happen either. The game would probably be stopped for a moment as it happened if it was that big of a deal, but nothing afterwards seems warranted.

I have stormed the playing surface before, both at basketball and football. It is a joyous time...for the first six or seven minutes. After those few minutes pass, it seems awkward and you are wondering when everyone is going to leave. So it's definitely an overrated action, but that only backs up why it should be saved for proper occasions. If you attend Duke, this occasion will not come up, and really, you chose Duke out of any school in the country?? How douchey of you.

As for being a fan on the road, I have never had the opportunity that I can recall. I am sure I've seen the Yankees play in some stadium other than their own, but nothing happened. It was so uneventful I cannot even remember it happening. That's baseball for you.

I have seen my alma mater football and basketball squads in neutral sites though, for whatever that's worth. What happens at neutral site games is that local sports fans end up snatching cheap tickets prior to the event and just are obnoxious to anyone rooting for either team actually playing. This happened when I saw Virginia Tech play in the Orange Bowl a few years back. The locals from Miami just got on us whenever something went against the Hokies. They didn't even care who won. It was bizarre.

[If you missed Part one - Fan Etiquette on the Road]

Fan Focus: Etiquette on the Road - Part one

Fan Focus: Etiquette on the Road - Part one
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (9-9-13)



DAN:
With the height of baseball season colliding perfectly with the start of the NFL calendar, let's take a long hard look at the fans for a moment. Fan Focus, telling you how not to be an ass for over ten years (length of time may be embellished).

Today I want to talk about stadium / ball park / arena etiquette. And not for the home crowd. They basically get to do whatever the hell they want. Its their team, their turf and their rules. I'm talking about watching your team play on the road, in the enemies backyard. Their are rules people and things to avoid so as not to get stabbed.

Do you have much experience with seeing your teams on the road? I've been watching the Yankees play the Angels out here in Anaheim for eight years running. Its an incredibly delightful experience and nothing like when I went to watch my New York Jets play the Patriots in Foxboro. I've seen the Celtics here in Los Angeles play the Clippers as well. Each sport is slightly different, but the rules don't change.

I'll start with rule number one and you can call me an idiot for bringing this up and give me rule number two.

First rule of fandom on the road; sit on the visiting side of the field. For baseball this is pretty easy to do, but with football its much greyer. My experience watching the Jets in New England brought me face to face with the roudy drunk Masshole Pats fan. I was in the upper deck, around plenty of Jets fans, but far outnumbered none the less. I wore a Jets hat, but nothing else. I felt that was respectful. Gotta show team spirit, but no need to rub it in on the road. But when I cheered on my team I found myself all too close to several fights, with beer thrown in my general direction. It was cold outside, bitter cold, too cold to tell if the beer actually hit me. Stupid bleeping Patriots fans.


TODD:
Road fan etiquette, as you hinted at, has almost nothing to do with the actions of the specific road fan. It has everything to do with the home environment the actions are taking place in. As you said, you got heckled and harassed just for wearing a Jets hat in Gillette Stadium. We hear stories of fans getting beaten up and sent to the hospital seemingly every season just for being fans of the opposing team. Perhaps those certain people were rowdy and inciting anger from the home crowd, but that is still no reason to cripple someone. I think no matter the actions, it is dangerous to be an opposing fan in certain locales. That is just the sad state of present sports fandom.

So first rule of road fan etiquette altered: only be an opposing fan in weak home parks, i.e. Atlanta basketball, Jacksonville football, etc. This way, not only will the crowd as a whole be sparse, but the likelihood of home fans rallying up enough to cause you fear or harm is limited.

The ironic part is these types of crowds are considered bad fan bases. You glossed over home crowd responsibility, but I want to go back to that. Home crowds have some etiquette of their own. The obvious ones exist:

- Don't cheer loudly at a home football game when your team is on offense
- Don't start a wave at a baseball game; it makes your fans look disinterested and childish
- Don't yell randomly when your basketball team is shooting free throws

These are the easy ones. The grey area that most often comes up for home crowds though, for collegiate sports at least, is when to charge the field/court. When is it okay to leap from the stands onto the playing field after a victory? If you topple the number one team in the country, this seems warranted. But what if you are the number eight team in the country? Does it not then seem a bit silly?

This has been dissected before on other platforms, but I am never quite content with the results. What should be the requirements for when a home, collegiate crowd can rush the court?


DAN:
Way to skip rule number two and jump right on the home team. But I LOVE that you brought up the wave as a major red flag for home teams. This ties nicely into my second rule.

The second rule for road fans; go watch your team in a fan friendly venue. One of my absolute favorite spots to go watch the Yankees is at Angels' Stadium in Anaheim. Angels' fans are really great, nice, inviting and just positive all around. They have the Rally Monkey and home run fireworks, but aren't dicks about you cheering for the opposition. Plus, when the Yankees are in town the stadium is at least 1/3 full of Yankees fans. Win!

But guess what else happens ALL the TIME in Angels' stadium? The wave! They do the wave a ton in that ballpark. Granted its practically at Disney Land so being childish is not unexpected. But they love the wave and I love visiting that ballpark.

Now to the hard question. What are the rules for rushing the court, storming the field, rushing the mound? I have only two.

[Part two - Storming the Court]

NFL Kickoff: Off season questions Real & Hilarious - Part one

NFL Kickoff: Off season questions Real & Hilarious - Part one
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (8-5-13)



TODD:
The NFL is perfecting its takeover of the entire calendar year. We start with training camp and preseason in August through to the regular season and playoffs. The Super Bowl is played in February. From there comes free agency, player movement and draft talk through April-May. After that is finalization of rosters, more player movement and preseason news through the summer. Parts of this takeover are more fun (the NFC West royalty) than others (the Aaron Hernandez story). But either way, the National Football League now lasts 12 months a year.

With that preamble out of the way, let's dive into a myriad of questions that currently surround the league.

First, and possibly most importantly, with concussion research and player safety in the front of everyone's mind, is it realistic that this league eventually folds, AKA no longer exists, like some people have opined? Perhaps not in the next decade, but in our lifetime is there ever not going to be an NFL?

On a smaller scale, we can get into who will win the Super Bowl, what happens to the Patriots offense, who's the surprise team of the year and the biggest disappointment, etc. But those aren't the questions people are clambering for. Not yet at least. Here's what fans are really wondering:

(1) From a pure popularity standpoint, as in most interest by the most people, which New England story was actually bigger news, Aaron Hernandez or Tim Tebow?

(2) Is this finally the year fantasy football leagues realize using a kicker as a scoring position is almost entirely irrelevant and luck-based?

(3) If Barry Sanders came out of retirement today, could he be the starting running back for the New York Jets?

(4) If Russell Wilson, Andrew Luck, Colin Kaepernick and Robert Griffin III played 2 on 2 in a decathalon-type event, what would the teams be, which side would win, who would America be rooting for, and would they all be immediately inducted into the respective Halls of Fame of each sport they participated in?

(4b) How much does it suck for all current and future first year starting quarterbacks?

(5) Do the New York Giants actually eschew the linebacker position entirely this season and go with an unconventional 5-0-6 alignment? ...Huh, oh, no one is actually wondering this other than me?


DAN:
Whoa, whoa, whoa, someone just exploded a four part NFL debate in my face! I see six valid questions and one that is complete horse manure.

A thought on your preamble, the NFL is definitely expanding itself across all twelve months of the calendar and there is no better time for this to happen. Its popularity couldn't be higher and the potential for making money is still growing. Yet I worry for the league, and not because of the concussion issue which I'll get to in a minute. I worry because too much of a good thing is a cliche for a reason. If you eat too much ice cream you get a brain freeze and swear off it for a week. If you drink too much you puke, wake up with a hang over and wish you never knew what alcohol was. My point, we as Americans are reaching a saturation point with football. Its not just the NFL, but college football in conjunction with the NFL is inescapable.

There will be a breaking point, a moment in time where each fan says "Enough!" I can't take anymore football and need a break. Sports were built this way to start out. You had an off season with few to no stories to tell, so by the time training camp came around you were clamoring for some football or baseball or what not. Expanding to twelve uninterrupted months of football news and notes and crap involving the legal system is dangerous territory. ESPN and the like need things to talk about, I get it, and the NFL can still make more money. I get that too. But I worry, will enough be enough or will it never be enough?

How about that first question. The league is not going to fold. That's completely unrealistic. Sports are a part of American culture and football is at the forefront. It has been our entire lives. Our father's generation had baseball in the lead and our kid's generation might have the NBA, if trends continue. But the major sports are staying put in our society. No one is shutting down or boycotting the NFL and the game will get safer. Hell, its infinitely safer then when I played in high school. Rules alone, not to mention equipment, make it harder to get seriously injured. Plus, more importantly, there is something about men that makes them want to inflict pain on one another. I'm not saying we want to injure other men, just bruise them and push them around a bit. It's why boxing gyms are so popular, even if the sport has leveled off. Its also why MMA has blown up. The NFL is like Mixed Martial Arts with a full body suit and too many rules to count. Plus, hold onto this ball. Men love this! We aren't letting it go, just allowing it to change to appease the women of the world.

I'd like to issue a half apology in advance for being semi-sexist. Just covering my bases.


TODD:
The saturation point seems far off with the way things are transpiring, but certain actions are on the horizon that may expedite this process. Expanding the league into other countries, which already happens once a year, is going to get kicked up a notch. Multiple games will be played overseas. There may even be a franchise located in a country outside of North America. So not only will American football be a full-year sport in America but in other parts of the world as well.

On a side note, if the NFL expands past Europe and into Latin speaking countries, I'm not quite sure what they will call it. Futbol is already taken and we know first hand how confusing it is when soccer fans call soccer futbol here in the states.

[Part two - Off season questions 'Tebow vs. Hernandez']
[Part three - The fantasy kicker & Barry Sanders] 
[Part four - A QB decathlon, rookies & the NY Giants]

Spitfire and Summary - Sports Predictions 2013

Spitfire and Summary - Sports Predictions 2013

by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (1-11-13)

[Part One]   [Part Two]   [Part Three]

DAN:

Before the summary of all our amazing predictions, any last words?  I know, I know, you already got some right and I already got a lot wrong.

TODD:

Nail on the head.  After thirteen predictions, some ridiculous, mostly the ones said by you, we've reached the end of 2013 and some of my January predictions have already come true.  In the words of my favorite TV personality, Homer Simpson, "I am so smart. S.M.R.T!"

Not to brag but... bragging rules.  Alabama did in fact beat Notre Dame by at least two scores, as I said would happen.  Point for Todd.  Maybe I got carried away with saying some folks would want to put Ohio State number one. That was just the rebel in me.

I also nailed the end of the NHL lockout.  Two points for Todd.  I said the season would start back up before the month was out and it appears as though games will begin on January 19th. "Coincidentally" that is just in time for the nationally televised slate of NBC games to commence. Go figure.  Cue cynicism.

As for the baseball Hall of Fame prediction, we both might have been a little off. Based on the percentages of votes received, it will be a long ass time before either Barry Bonds or Roger Clemens sniffs the Hall. I expected both to fall short for two major factors: voters hate putting people in on the first ballot and voters love punishing steroid era guys. The former probably took place. The latter was seen in spades, even more severely than I was expecting to be honest. It might take a decade or so before enough new blood enters the baseball writers association and guys will begin to treat performance enhancing drugs as just another way to cheat, rather than something seemingly worse. I mean, we already have admitted cheaters in the Hall. It is just a matter of degree at this point.

DAN:

Yeah so I got some wrong and one really, really wrong.  We'll just see who comes out on top when Christmas roles around.  Bring it!


Summary Time! 

(1) BCS Championship Game
TODD:  Alabama handles Notre Damn (Correct!)
DAN:  Notre Dame squeaks out a victory (Wrong...)

(2) MLB Hall of Fame vote
TODD & DAN:  Neither Bonds or Clemens get in (Both Correct!)

(3) NHL Lockout
TODD:  Lockout over and games resume by February (Correct again!)
DAN:  Lockout over by late February with games resuming in March (Wrong...)

(4) NFL Playoffs
TODD:  The 49ers make the Super Bowl
DAN:  The 49ers over the Seahawks in the NFC Championship
           The Patriots over the Colts in the AFC Championship
           The Patriots over the 49ers in the Super Bowl

(5) NCAA Basketball Tournament
TODD:  Zero ACC teams reach the round of 32
DAN:  The Final Four includes Duke, Syracuse, Texas, and NC State with Syracuse over Texas in the finals and Boeheim retires on top

(6) MLB Pre Season
TODD:  Dan is wrong
DAN:  Yankees trade for Evan Longoria and sign a relief pitcher from the Cardinals

(7) NFL Draft
TODD:  Mike Glennen is the first QB selected and none go in the first round
DAN:  Matt Barkley is the first QB drafted with the 12th pick in the first round by the Dallas Cowboys who trade Tony Romo to move up for the pick

(8) MLB Mid Season
TODD:  Curtis Granderson is in the Home Run Derby, representing a team other than the Yankees
DAN:  Unfortunately agrees

(9) NY Jets 2013
TODD: The Jets starting QB in 2013 is not currently on their roster and won't be a rookie
DAN:  Tim Tebow is the starting QB for the Jets in 2013

(10) Golf
TODD:  Zach Johnson wins the green jacket
DAN:  Phil Michelson retires after winning a second green jacket

(11) MLB World Series
TODD:  The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim defeat the Cincinnati Reds
DAN:  The Atlanta Braves defeat the Tampa Bay Rays, only because I couldn't pick the Yankees

(12) NFL 2013 Season
TODD:  The Carolina Panthers have the best record heading into December and make the playoffs
DAN:  The NY Jets bounce back to finish 10-6 and make the playoffs

(13) College Football Season 2013 and the Final BCS Championship
TODD:  Ohio State will face LSU in the BCS Championship
DAN:  Johnny Manziel wins back to back Heisman trophies

[Part One]   [Part Two]   [Part Three]

Thirteen Predictions for 2013 - Part Three

Thirteen Predictions for 2013 - Part Three

by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (1-7-13)

[Part One] [Part Two]

TODD:

I think Tony Romo getting traded is a distinct possibility but, come on, Matt Barkley going 12th overall?? He had a down year, then got hurt. Unless he has a magical combine, teams noticed his lack of superior arm strength this season and should be wary of his decision making after the Trojans' season fell apart. If Barkley couldn't win in college with that much talent, how can NFL scouts expect him to excel at the next level when the talent is much more evenly dispersed?

The only reason your Barkley comment isn't so bad is because your next predictions overshadow it with stupidity. Why would the Yankees sign Michael Bourn? He is a Scott Boras client so we know NY won't be able to get him cheap or get a one year deal there, which would be in direct competition with their 2014-get-under-the-tax plan. Also, they already have two starting outfielders who do nearly the exact same thing as Michael Bourn. Ichiro and Brett Gardner are both no power, high speed and contact outfielders. Bourn is better than either of them but brings no new skills to the Yankees outfield. 

(10) Speaking of stupid predictions, we can all tell you are not a golf fan by the way you ordered your Phil Mickelson guess. The Masters takes place in April, so if Phil were to win the green jacket and retire, shouldn't that have been number six or seven on this list? To make matters worse, it ain't happening! Phil, although only 42, has too many younger and more talented guys ahead of him in the chase for the green jacket. Give it to Zach Johnson instead. 

(11) With all the spending going on in MLB these days, the deeper pocketed teams extend their advantage over everyone else. The World Series matchup will be indicative of this. The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim will be back in the series on the backs of their loaded lineup and sterling pitching to face the Cincinnati Reds. With Albert Pujols, Josh Hamilton and highly paid, highly skilled players all through their 25-man roster, the Angels take the series in six games even though Joey Votto comes out of October looking like the best player in the league. 

(12) As December rolls around, the Carolina Panthers will have the best record in the NFL. Behind MVP-candidate Cam Newton and the best rushing attack in the league, Carolina continues the trend of teams making huge leaps from one season to another. The lack of an elite pass rush will thwart the Panthers' chances to make it to the Super Bowl but, by this time, every football fan in the country realizes the best team in the regular season in no way correlates to the Super Bowl champ come February.

(13) In college football, for the final BCS Championship game before the playoff system is instituted, the Ohio State Buckeyes will face LSU in a rematch of the 2007 title game contest. Urban Meyer proved this past season how much better of a coach he is than everyone else in America. Give him a year to recruit where OSU is not on probation and the Buckeyes will be fearsome. 

As for who will win this game, you'll have to wait for next year's predictions because that game will not take place until January 2014.

DAN: 

Hey!  I'm a fan of the idea of a golf outing.  And don't discount the ineptitude of NFL scouting.  Matt Barkley is getting his shot.  Furthermore, the Yankees better sign someone new in the outfield as injury insurance if not batting lineup improvement, otherwise this is going to be a very, very long season.  Where's our new blood!

(11)  If I had to pick one team I'd want in the World Series, and the Yankees were out, then it would be the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.  This would at least provide me the opportunity to attend a game, if my wallet was big enough.  Sorry Dodgers, but your stadium falls way short in the fun to attend department.  Otherwise, your prediction appears well thought out, based in fact, and not entirely off the mark.  I see both the Angels and Reds as playoff teams, but neither is making the World Series.

With my hand to the fire and removing the Yankees from the equation, since I can't honestly pick against my team unless forced to, I'd say the Braves face the Rays in the World Series.  The team with the healthiest pitching wins... Atlanta.

(12)  Predicting Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams will both stay healthy all year is a huge leap of faith! As for my pick of the team to make a huge leap next season, its the one dearest to my heart.  The NY Jets bounce back to finish 10-6 and make the playoffs.  The defense really gelled this past year and is a standout group again in 2013.  The running game finally takes hold with Joe McKnight splitting the load with Bilal Powell.  As for QB, I already touched on this in a somewhat wishful thinking manner, but I'm not concerned.  There are plenty of QBs out there who can do better than 50 turnovers in two seasons.

(13)  I'm heading in a different direction for next year's college football season, as I can probably rattle off the top five teams, but isolating the top two is arbitrary at best.  I'm jumping on the "Johnny Football" bandwagon and predicting that Johnny Manziel wins back to back Heisman trophies for Texas A&M. 

[Part One]   [Part Two]

Prediction Summary and Wrap up on Friday

Thirteen Sports Predictions for 2013 - Part Two

Thirteen Sports Predictions for 2013 - Part Two

by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (1-4-13) 
[Part One]  [Part Three]

TODD:
That was a bitch move, stealing my NFL pick.  And I could not disagree more with your Yankees "predictions." They seemed more like a wish and a prayer than actual predictions. Bush league.

Evan Longoria is not getting traded.  Not getting traded!  He is signed to a pretty reasonable contract and the Rays have done well in controlling their assets in recent years.

As for your college basketball Final Four 'predictions', I agree it is madness to predict March Madness. Hell, it's hard to guess the Final Four even after the bracket comes out, let alone at the beginning of the calendar year.  So... I will just destroy your predictions instead!

(5) Zero ACC schools will make it to the round of 32 of the NCAA Tournament. 

This conference is way down; other than Duke, the rest of the ACC schools have disappointed thus far on the year. Heading into conference play, I have no confidence in either North Carolina or your NC State Wolfpack. Florida State is nowhere near the team they were last year and no one else has the talent to win a game in the Big Dance, let alone advance past round two. All it will take for this to come to fruition, and it will, is a bad match-up or bad shooting game by Duke and we've seen that happen before in the tournament.

(6) I'll repeat this just to rub the wound.  Evan Longoria is not joining the Yankees. We aren't that desperate a team are we to shoot in the dark?

(7) The rein of rookie quarterbacks in the NFL is over, at least for one year. 

No one in the upcoming draft in April is worthy of a first round pick and even if a couple get selected in round one, no rookie quarterback will be what could be considered a solid starter next year. To make this a littler juicer, I'll even tell you who the first QB off the board will be and you tell me if you can conceive of a scenario where he is leading a team to the playoffs in year one. The man is NC State quarterback Mike Glennon.

(8) Curtis Granderson will be a representative in this year's Home Run Derby for someone other than the New York Yankees. I double dipped on that prediction; call it a two-for-one.  Like those delicious cookie ice-cream sandwiches.

(9) Your beloved New York Jets' starting quarterback for week one of the 2013 NFL season is NOT currently on their roster but he will NOT be a rookie either.

DAN:

Excellent and bold NCAA prediction, albeit dead wrong.  And you got me, my Yankees prediction was definitely a bit out there and a wish list of sorts.  But hey, what good is a prediction if it doesn't benefit your favorite team?  Am I right?

(7)  Mike 'no one outside the ACC has heard of me' Glennon is not leading an NFL team anywhere next season.  But again, you're dead wrong here!  

Glennon won't be the first QB taken in the draft.  That honor goes to Matt Barkley from USC, whose poor season in 2012 will be overshadowed by a tremendous combine and the desperate Dallas Cowboys trade Tony Romo to move up in the draft and grab Barkley with the 12th pick.

-- Side Note -- 

I like how you tried to jump right into the heart of the baseball season without picking an NBA champion.  The NHL I can understand, its in a coma, but the National Basketball Association does not get overlooked.  Too bad you're right to skip this stupid prediction.

(8)  Granderson on a different MLB team other than the Yankees, I wish I could argue with your logic but the Yankees won't sign him long term and should definitely trade him to get value prior to his contract being up.  As a Yankees homer, I only care what we get in return.  What about someone like Micheal Bourne?  I can see them going two years on him and trading Grandy for pitching help.  Anything to make the playoffs this year without crapping the bed.

(9)  Like you know anything about the Jets.  

The Jets practice brute strength negotiations and avoid logic in their decisions at all cost.  If you're wrong about the Jets, which you are, then the only other answer is that Tim Tebow will be the starting QB for the NY Jets in 2013.  He gets the nod before the Super Bowl, they mold the offense around him and hire a OC accordingly, drafting specifically to run his game.  Its the only logical reason both coach and owner have been silent all week... oh wait...they don't use logic.

-- Ugh --

You got me all riled up over the damn Jets! I can barely muster up new predictions.  Damn it.  

(10)  Phil Michelson retires from golf after winning a second green jacket. 

Where am I wrong?  Give me more 'predictions' to destroy!

[Part One]

[Part Three]

Thirteen Sports Predictions for 2013

Thirteen Sports Predictions for 2013

by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (12-31-12)

[Part Two]  [Part Three]

TODD:

In honor of the new year, I have some sports predictions for what 2013 will hold. Rather than being boring and going by sport, I'm taking us month by month.

Here's what is going to happen in January:

(1) Alabama will win the BCS National Championship by more than a touchdown and at least two prominent writers/bloggers will write an article saying that Ohio State deserves to finish number one in the Associated Press rankings.

(2) The voting results for the MLB Hall of Fame will be released and both Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens will get in... by 2015. Sorry, I know I slow-rolled you on that one. Neither guy will receive the required 75% of votes to make it this year but both will be in within the next two votes. I know, I know; it's kind of a long-term prediction but we'll immediately know it's wrong if neither guy comes close to 75% this January.

(3) The NHL lockout will end and the regular season will be under way by the time February rolls around.

(4) The San Francisco 49ers will advance to the Super Bowl, debunking the myth that teams getting hot at the right time always roll through the playoffs.

Tell me where I'm wrong!

DAN:

I love the month to month predictions, but come on! You only made it to February. This can be a three part post, but I'm going the full third of the year here and will take mine into April.

Starting in January works for me:

(1) Notre Dame, not Alabama, will win the National Championship. I'll go one step further and say they win 28 to 24 on a late game TAINT (that's a touchdown after an interception, as well as a male's unmentionables). Ohio State will also be undefeated, but remain relegated to the outside of the championship discussion.

(2) As for the voting results for MLB Hall of Fame, there's what I wish would happen and then what will happen. This is a progressive time, but Bonds and Clemens will have to wait at least one more year. I'm with you, they get snubbed this year out of principle alone. I'm thinking Bonds gets in next season and Clemens needs one more than that.

(3) I'm not as optimistic about the NHL. The lockout ends, but not until late February at best. They get one month of games at most and cut the playoffs in half to make for an unbelievably thrilling end to a sport that is dying as we speak.

(4) Now to the good stuff, the NFL Playoffs. In the NFC we get a Seahawks vs. 49ers championship game, west coast bias all the way baby! I think the Seahawks snap their road woes and march into San Fran as the hot team so to speak. The 49ers get the best of them this time however and do in fact make the Super Bowl.

In the AFC we get the somewhat predictable outcome of Manning falling flat in the postseason and losing to his old team in round two. The Colts meet the Patriots in the AFC championship, and as a Jets fan it stings to say this, but the Patriots are once again going to the Super Bowl.

Patriots 35, 49ers 28 in a redemption game for Brady who is probably the best quarterback ever. For him to have not won a Super Bowl in nearly a decade is incredible, considering he lost two on defensive breakdowns.  I'll toss you a "Go Giants" out of sympathy. 

With football now behind us its time for pitchers and catchers to report. Oh, and there's a little thing called March Madness! I'm putting it out there, its madness to predict the final four on December 31st, but here goes.

 

(5) The NCAA Men's Final Four includes Duke, Syracuse, Texas, and NC State. Syracuse over Texas in the finals and Boeheim retires on top.

(6) On to baseball. I'll make a couple of Yankees predictions as they are the only team worth discussing. Before the season kicks off the Yankees will trade for Evan Longoria. The Rays can't afford to keep him long term and this blockbuster is happening. Oh yeah! They will also snatch a closer from the Cardinals as insurance. That team has a ton of bullpen talent.

Tell me where I'm wrong oh Nostratoddmus, sir.  See what I did there?

[Part Two] 
[Part Three]

 

Playoffs vs BCS - A College Football Fight! (Part Two)

Playoffs vs BCS - A College Football Fight!

by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (12-21-12)

[Part One of Playoffs vs BCS]

TODD: 

Before you jump right into your crazy ideas about college football let me just say something.  You will like this since I kind of just agree with you.  The NBA and NHL regular seasons are for diehards and the NFL regular season is worrisome, etc, etc.  I'm not particularly concerned, so there.

DAN: 

So, like I was saying, a four team playoff actually makes the college football regular season better. The BCS itself is a unique and special creation, yet I still feel like its missing something. I think the pros of this unique system fail to outweigh the cons of its outcome. Sure, the regular season is extremely meaningful, but with only ten or eleven games on the schedule this will always be true. With the BCS system, a single loss basically removes you from the national title picture, unless luck falls your way and someone else on top loses too. As a fan I hate this. One stinking loss and your team can't be the champion? I cry foul.

I get that the computers determine the best two teams based on everything and numbers and such, but its not that simple. You know what is simple, a four team playoff! Keep it at four and I'm very, very happy. The regular season is no less meaningful, as you still need to win nearly every game to finish in the top four. But now the arbitrary ranking is no longer the be all, end all. The top four teams are always really, really good, but most don't play each other during the regular season outside of the SEC. With the four team playoff we now get even better college football around New Years day, without losing what is already great about the sport, its regular season.  Win, win!

I'm kind of afraid it might not end there, but I'm psyched to evolve away from the two team computer pick into a four team battle for the title.

TODD:

When the four-team playoff first hit news cycles I was on the side of expanding that to eight teams. Why stop at four? Right off the bat, it seemed like four teams was pointless; either stick with the BCS or go to a playoff with an amount of teams that will make a difference. But since then, I have reversed course. I know, its not normally my style but I can evolve too.  I actually agree with you; a four-team playoff seems ideal for college football. It keeps the sanctity of the regular season in tact, while also adding the excitement of the playoffs where more than two teams have a chance to win. 

With the recent release of the 2012-2013 bowl schedule, the playoffs cannot come soon enough. Now please! This year's batch of BCS bowls is dreadful. With the exception of the National Championship, every other BCS bowl leaves something to be desired or contains a team who really isn't that good. Even Oregon's match against Kansas State (which seemed like a possible title game pairing rather recently) now seems like it could be a blowout in favor of the Ducks.  Boring to say the least.

Unfortunately for college football fans and the NCAA, this season unraveled oddly. The playoffs would have probably contained Notre Dame, Alabama, Florida and Oregon. This would have been delightful and certainly more fun than what the BCS bowls are giving us. But the end of season failures by teams like Kansas State and Oregon, and the way things played out for Georgia, soured the season a little anyways no matter how the champion would be decided.

Slightly tangential, but that's my thing, let's hope Notre Dame loses in the title game, leaving Ohio State as the lone undefeated team, and enough Associated Press voters put the Buckeyes number one so we have a split national championship. Controversy! That seems like a fitting end to this season and a nice precursor for the playoff entrance after next season.  I can't wait.

[Click for Part One]

Playoffs or the BCS - College Football Rules!

Playoffs or the BCS - College Football Rules!
by Dan Salem and Todd Salem (12-17-12)
[Click for Part Two]

TODD:   

I have always been in the small minority of BCS defenders. College football had a simple leg up on all other mainstream sports in that the regular season was paramount. A single loss oftentimes ruined a team's season. This happens in no other sport and things have swung so far in the other direction that, especially in the NBA or NHL, the regular season is almost irrelevant. 

Let's not merely single out those two sports where too many teams make the playoffs, since this has now become the case in pretty much every sport we hold dear. Major League Baseball is a "get in and see" sport through and through. Any team that makes the playoffs has an equally good shot at winning the World Series as any other team. The NFL has veered in nearly the same direction as well. Get hot around Thanksgiving and ride it through January. Woo!  The best teams during the first ten weeks of the football season become afterthoughts; it is simply too hard to be good that long. Even college basketball maintains a system where statement games during the year mean nothing as far as postseason play other than seeding.  Was my rant long enough?

Back to college football and my point. They had this "thing" that no one else had: a perfect regular season. It was peerless. Amazing.  The movers and shakers of amateur pro football decided to remove this in favor of a playoff. For now, the playoff is small and will keep in tact most of what makes college football great, but the slippery slope has gotten wet.  Remember slip and slide, well they just turned on the water so wait for it.

Do you also feel the pointlessness of regular season play in other sports?  Is it as bad a thing as I'm making it out to be?  And did college football remove their grandiose factor or simply trade a good thing away for something equally as appealing?

It's hard to debate three different questions at once, but I believe in you.

DAN:   

I believe in me too...

Personally I love being the only one doing something, or possessing a unique attribute which no one else can match.  College football has this, yet I can't help but think the BCS misses something.  Both your questions are big elephants in the room, so I'll tackle the African grey first.

I hate the watered down feeling of regular season sports, and yet I love it just the same.  It's not a problem; as the final month of the MLB season showed us there can still be hard fought drama to get in the playoffs even with an unbearably long regular season.  I also enjoy the fact that a poor week or month of play doesn't do in a team.  Although the Yankees poor July and August foreshadowed their poor October, it did not prevent them from winning the division in September.  The same can't be said for the NFL, where a bad month of loses can pretty much end a team's season.

I'm hopping between both sides of the fence here because I don't enjoy basketball or hockey enough to watch regular season games which each individually mean next to nothing.  You would think the NBA and the dead carcass of the NHL would try to fix this.  There's often still drama at the end of the  regular season however, so ultimately I'm perfectly happy the way things are.  The regular season is for diehard fans of the sport.  The last month of the season and the playoffs are for people like me, someone who doesn't mind having a few months of the year without meaningful sports.  Its refreshing actually.  Like peppermint schnaps in your coffee on Christmas morning.  Yum.

Back to football.  I'm starting to get annoyed with the NFL, as the regular season being only sixteen games should mean a lot.  It use to mean a lot.  It means a ton in college.  But now being healthy in December and January is all that matters if you make the playoffs.  This is a consequence of the bigger, stronger, faster phenomena and a money grab by the owners adding in Thursday, Saturday, London based and Sunday night games, basically screwing the players over with the schedules.  I hate where its going because the season is being made irrelevant.  Even if we know a team like the Browns is done by week four, we don't know whether a two loss Baltimore (now five loss) is actually good.  Sorry Cleveland, not sorry Baltimore.

I know you'd love meaningful sports year round, but you can put down the liquor bottle and stop drowning your sorrows.  The second elephant, BCS or playoffs, doesn't ruin anything.  

A four team playoff actually makes the college football regular season better.

[Click for Part Two]